Insider buying last 90 days
No open-market insider purchases were filed for AA in the last 90 days.
From Form 4 filings, dated to when each was filed.
Every AA insider filing, plotted on the chart in Gekko.Open AA in Gekko
Gekko Brief
AI summaryAlcoa's week is dominated by financing for its proposed South32 acquisition, with the company closing a $2.6 billion senior notes offering split between notes due 2034 and 2036 to fund the cash portion of the deal for South32's bauxite, alumina and aluminum assets. The purchase still requires approvals, and the notes carry a redemption provision if the deal misses a deadline. Alongside this, Freedom Broker raised its price target on AA to $76.00 while maintaining a Buy rating, and a separate report cited a consensus Hold rating with an average target price of $61.42.
Shares closed at $42.25, down 1.4% on the day, with the stock sitting below both its 50-day average of $47.81 and its 200-day average of $58.08, and the 50-day itself below the 200-day. The GekkoIndex reads 71.7, placing AA in the Buying zone. Price sits 4.5% below Gekko Fair Value of $44.22.
Earnings are due 15 October 2026 after the close, 16 days out and inside a typical 20-trading-day holding window; the prior report saw EPS of $0.39 against a $2.33 estimate and a 9.5% reaction. Over the last 30 days there has been 1 unusual options signal, with call premium of $295,258 against put premium of $166,851. Seasonally, the next 20 trading days have averaged a 2.2% gain over 5 years, rising in 3 of them. Analyst consensus stands at 6 buy, 3 hold, 1 sell, with a consensus target of $63.06.
Written by AI and checked automatically against the figures on this page. Generated Sep 29, 2026 from the data above.
Alcoa price vs fair value
Close $42.25200-day averageGekko Fair Value $44.22
Alcoa quick facts
- Market cap
- $11.15B
- P/E ratio
- 8.9
- Forward P/E
- 8
- EPS, TTM
- $4.81
- Revenue, TTM
- $13.60B
- Profit margin
- 9.4%
- Dividend yield
- 0.94%
- Beta
- 1.63
- Volume
- 3.03M avg 3.78M
- 1-year return
- +34.3%
- Typical daily move
- ±4%
- Typical 20-day move
- ±10.1%
- 50-day average
- $47.81
- 200-day average
- $58.08
- Next earnings
- Oct 15 after close
- Shares outstanding
- 263.9M
Alcoa swing-trade checklist
Alcoa scores 3 supportive, 1 mixed and 2 headwinds across the 6 checklist items with data.
Six things swing traders check before a 20-day hold, read from the latest data.
3 supportive1 mixed2 headwinds
- Trendheadwind
Below 50 and 200-day
Close $42.25 is below the 50-day ($47.81) and 200-day ($58.08) averages, and the 50-day is below the 200-day.
See the chart - GekkoIndexsupportive
71.7, Buying
Reading 71.7 is in the Buying zone.
See the GekkoIndex - Fair valuemixed
4.5% below
Price is within 5% of Gekko Fair Value (4.5% below).
See fair value - Smart moneysupportive
Leans bullish
Last 30 days: 1 unusual options signal.
See smart money - Earnings riskheadwind
Reports in 16 days
Reports on Oct 15, 2026, 16 days away — inside a typical 20-trading-day hold.
See earnings - Seasonalitysupportive
+2.2% on average
From this point in the calendar, the next 20 trading days averaged +2.2% over 5 years, rising in 3 of them.
See seasonality
A description of current data, not a recommendation. How this page works
Alcoa stock chart and price history
Alcoa closed at $42.25 on Sep 28, 2026, +34.3% over the past year, inside a 52-week range of $31.45 to $84.38.
Close50-day average200-day averageVolume
Use the left and right arrow keys to read daily values.
Performance Breakdown
- 1 month
- −17.5%
- 3 months
- −21.0%
- 6 months
- −27.7%
- 1 year
- +34.3%
The full AA chart adds GekkoIndex, insider, options, Congress and hedge fund markers, plus TrendCandles™.Open AA in Gekko
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About Alcoa
Alcoa mines bauxite, refines it into alumina, and turns that alumina into aluminum products sold across industries such as transportation, construction, packaging, and wire manufacturing. Its operations reach across North America, Europe, South America, and Australia, and it is widely recognized for its work across this full chain of raw material extraction through metal production.
The business runs through three main segments: Bauxite, Alumina, and Aluminum, reflecting each stage of its production process. Aluminum output takes the form of alloys and value-added ingots for industrial buyers, while alumina is sold on to customers who convert it into chemical products. Alcoa also runs hydroelectric plants that generate electricity sold into wholesale power markets, with buyers ranging from traders and industrial users to distribution companies and other generators.
Alcoa was founded in 1888 and is headquartered in Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania. The company took on its current corporate name in October 2016, having previously operated as Alcoa Upstream Corporation. Its shares are listed on the NYSE under the ticker AA.
- Listed
- NYSE
- Sector
- Non-energy minerals
- Industry
- Aluminum
- Website
- alcoa.com
Alcoa GekkoIndex: the smart money zone
Alcoa’s GekkoIndex — Gekko’s 0 to 100 smart money score — reads 71.7, in the Buying zone, up 3.3 points over five sessions.
71.7Buying
Up 3.3 points over five sessions, from the Accumulation zone.
Reading for Sep 28, 2026
What followed past readings in each zone
| Zone | Readings | 5 days | 20 days | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Buying (current zone) | 49 | −1.5% | +0.1% | ||
| Accumulation | 172 | +1.0% | +1.9% | ||
| Neutral | 409 | +0.9% | +4.1% | ||
| Distribution | 41 | −1.6% | −4.7% | ||
| Selling | 1 | Too few readings yet | |||
Average AA share-price change over the trading days after each daily reading in its GekkoIndex history. Across every stock Gekko tracks, Buying readings averaged +3.2% over 20 days. Past behaviour doesn’t guarantee future results.
Buying zone: Smart money likely accumulating heavily. About the five zones →
See every daily GekkoIndex reading plotted over the AA price, zone by zone.Track AA in Gekko
Is Alcoa stock overvalued? Gekko Fair Value
Alcoa trades 4.5% below Gekko Fair Value of $44.22, so the shares are about fair value on Gekko’s estimate.
Gekko’s own estimate of what Alcoa shares are worth, recalculated every trading day.
$44.22
Gekko Fair Value, Sep 29, 2026
4.5% below fair value · About fair value
Gekko Fair Value on every chart, with the gap to price updating daily.Open AA in Gekko
Alcoa insider and Congress trading
No open-market insider purchases were filed for Alcoa, and no Congress trades were disclosed, in the last 90 days.
Plus buybacks, unusual options and fund positions, each dated to when it became public.
Congress trades last 90 days
No trades in AA were disclosed by members of Congress in the last 90 days.
From congressional disclosures, which report amounts as ranges.
Congress disclosures for AA, plotted on the chart in Gekko.Open AA in Gekko
Buybacks
Alcoa has been buying back its own shares.
- Bought back, quarter ended Dec 31, 2025
- $84.00M
- As a share of market cap
- 0.75%
From company filings.
Unusual options activity last 30 days
1signal, 64% of the flagged premium in calls.
Latest: Bullish flow on Sep 26, $462K in unusual premium.
Hedge funds and billionaires quarter ended Jun 30
2of the funds Gekko tracks hold AA.
1added0opened1trimmed0sold out
Every signal with its contract, strike and premium, and which funds are on each side.Unlock in Gekko
Alcoa earnings: next date and track record
Alcoa reports on Oct 15, 2026, after the close (16 days away), and beat the EPS estimate in 7 of its last 8 reports.
Next earnings report
Oct 15, 2026
Expected after the close, 16 days away
- EPS estimate
- $1.45
- Revenue estimate
- $3.80B
7 of 8reports beat the EPS estimate
±5.1%average move across the report
2 of 8reports followed by a gain
Share-price move across each report
Last earnings call, Jul 16, 2026 AI summary
- What they said
- Alcoa's Q2 2026 earnings call highlighted strong operational and financial performance despite some near-term headwinds. The company reported record quarterly revenue (+24% to $4.0B), higher aluminum shipments and production due to restarts, and year-to-date production records at multiple smelters and a refinery. Management emphasized safety improvements, labor agreement progress providing workforce stability, and strategic initiatives (including a $65M Mosjøen cast house expansion and the announced acquisition of South32's upstream assets). Aluminum fundamentals were described as tight with low inventories and resilient demand in North America and Europe, while alumina markets showed divergence between China (tight) and ex-China (challenging). Q2 adjusted net income and adjusted EBITDA improved sequentially, although reported results were modestly below consensus due to weaker aluminum realization late in June and some unfavorable energy, currency, and production cost impacts. Management provided updates on asset monetization (targeting $500M–$1B by 2030), progress on Massena East negotiations, Pinjarra operational recovery after an oxalate outbreak and natural gas interruption, and continued focus on restarts at Alumar, Portland and San Ciprian. They reiterated operational discipline and contingencies for timing risk on regulatory approvals in Australia.
- Guidance
- - Energy outlook for Q3: diesel and fuel oil expected to be $5M favorable vs. Q2; fuel oil assumption ~$90/barrel. - Carbon purchase cost lag expected to be ~$15M unfavorable in Q3. - Alumina segment Q3 net outlook ~$10M favorable (includes ~+$30M recovery at Pinjarra, offset by planned maintenance at Alumar and Juruti). - Asset monetization target: $500M to $1B between now and 2030 (Messina East near completion). - Continued expectation of production and shipment benefits from restarts into Q3; no formal quarterly/annual revenue EPS guidance revisions beyond items disclosed.
- Risks flagged
- - Near-term aluminum price volatility (sharp LME decline late June impacting price realization). - Operational disruptions (Pinjarra oxalate outbreak, natural gas interruption, cyclone impacts). - Elevated input costs: carbon purchase prices and energy costs, caustic price volatility, and unfavorable currency impacts. - Potential delays in regulatory/mining approvals for the South32 acquisition (timing risk beyond prior year-end expectation). - Market risks from geopolitical disruptions in the Middle East and evolving China production dynamics.
| Reported | EPS | Revenue | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Jul 16, 2026 | $0.39 est $2.33 | $3.97B est $3.99B | −9.5% |
| Apr 16, 2026 | $1.40 est $1.18 | $3.19B est $3.28B | −6.8% |
| Jan 22, 2026 | $1.26 est $0.93 | $3.45B est $3.28B | −2.6% |
| Oct 22, 2025 | −$0.02 est −$0.14 | $3.00B est $3.09B | +7.8% |
| Jul 16, 2025 | $0.39 est $0.32 | $3.02B est $2.91B | +3.2% |
| Apr 16, 2025 | $2.15 est $1.68 | $3.37B est $3.47B | −5.5% |
| Jan 22, 2025 | $1.04 est $1.01 | $3.49B est $3.46B | −3.3% |
| Oct 16, 2024 | $0.57 est $0.30 | $2.90B est $2.97B | −2.3% |
“Move” is the close of the first session after the report compared with the close of the last session before it, so it reads the same whether the company reported before the open or after the close.
Alcoa stock forecast and analyst price targets
Analysts’ average 12-month price target for Alcoa is $63.06, +49.3% from the last close, from 10 firms rating the stock in the last 90 days.
$63.06consensus 12-month target, +49.3% from the last close
Now $42.25Avg $63.06
Low $51High $80
Each firm’s latest rating in the last 90 days: 10 firms.
Latest analyst actions
| Date | Firm | Target | vs price |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 22 | B. Riley Securities | $80 | +89.3% |
| Sep 22 | Freedom Capital Markets | $76 | +79.9% |
| Sep 21 | Morgan Stanley | $53 | +25.4% |
| Sep 18 | Wells Fargo | $60 | +42.0% |
| Sep 18 | Morgan Stanley | $53 | +25.4% |
+0.1%average 20-day move after past Buying readings
+2.2%average move over the next 20 trading days in the last 5 years
±4%typical daily move, from the 14-day average range
Gekko doesn’t publish price predictions. These are analyst targets and historical base rates, which don’t guarantee future results.
Alcoa seasonality: the next 20 trading days
Over the next 20 trading days from Sep 29, Alcoa averaged +2.2% across the last 5 years, rising in 3 of them.
Next 20 trading days, by year
Average move and hit rate
| Window | Average | Years higher |
|---|---|---|
| Next 5 trading days | −0.3% | 1 of 5 |
| Next 10 trading days | +2.8% | 3 of 5 |
| Next 15 trading days | +3.5% | 4 of 5 |
| Next 20 trading days | +2.2% | 3 of 5 |
| Next 30 trading days | +5.7% | 3 of 5 |
For scale, AA’s typical 20-trading-day move in either direction is about 10.1%.
Alcoa market cap and key statistics
Alcoa’s market cap is $11.15B, with a P/E ratio of 8.9 and revenue of $13.60B over the last twelve months.
Valuation
- Market cap
- $11.15B
- P/E ratio
- 8.9
- Forward P/E
- 8
- EPS, TTM
- $4.81
- Gekko Fair Value
- $44.22
Trading
- Volume
- 3.03M
- Avg volume, 20 days
- 3.78M
- 52-week high
- $84.38
- 52-week low
- $31.45
- Shares outstanding
- 263.9M
Financials
- Revenue, TTM
- $13.60B
- Profit margin
- 9.4%
- Return on equity
- 18.2%
- Quarterly earnings growth, YoY
- +146.8%
Risk and income
- Beta
- 1.63
- Typical daily move
- ±4%
- Typical 20-day move
- ±10.1%
- Dividend yield
- 0.94%
Alcoa stock news this week
Coverage of Alcoa this week reads positive: 6 positive, 5 neutral and 0 negative headlines.
- Alcoa (NYSE:AA) Stock Has Average Target Price of $61.42MarketBeat, Sep 26
- Alcoa sold $2.6 billion in bonds; its proposed South32 purchase still needs approvals.Stock Titan, Sep 24
- Alcoa closes $2.6 billion senior notes offeringInvesting.com, Sep 24
- Alcoa Corporation (ALCA.VI) Stock Price, News, Quote & HistoryYahoo! Finance Canada, Sep 24
- Alcoa Corporation Announces Closing of Debt Offering to Finance Cash Consideration for Acquisition of South32’s Bauxite, Alumina and Aluminum AssetsYahoo Finance, Sep 24
- If the South32 deal misses a deadline, Alcoa (AA) subsidiaries must redeem their new notes.Stock Titan, Sep 24
Alcoa peers
Alcoa’s 4 largest industry peers by market value, with today’s move, GekkoIndex zone and gap to Gekko Fair Value.
| Stock | GekkoIndex zone | vs Fair Value |
|---|---|---|
| CENXCentury Aluminum | Buying | 30.4% below |
| CSTMConstellium | Accumulation | 25.9% below |
| KALUKaiser Aluminum | Accumulation | 8.2% below |
| TGTredegar | Accumulation | 34.8% below |
A peer links to its own page where one exists.
Alcoa stock FAQ
What is Alcoa’s market cap?
Alcoa’s market cap is $11.15B at the Sep 28, 2026 close of $42.25, with 263.9M shares outstanding. The shares trade on a P/E ratio of 8.9.
What is the Alcoa stock forecast?
The consensus analyst 12-month price target for Alcoa is $63.06, +49.3% from the last close. Of the 10 firms that rated the stock in the last 90 days, 6 rate it a buy, 3 a hold and 1 a sell. Gekko doesn’t publish price predictions of its own.
Is Alcoa stock overvalued or undervalued?
On Gekko’s estimate Alcoa is about fair value: the Sep 28, 2026 close of $42.25 is 4.5% below Gekko Fair Value of $44.22. Gekko Fair Value is recalculated every trading day, and a gap inside 5% either way counts as about fair value.
When does Alcoa report earnings next?
Alcoa is expected to report on Oct 15, 2026, after the market closes (16 days away). Analysts expect earnings of $1.45 per share on revenue of $3.80B. Alcoa beat the earnings estimate in 7 of its last 8 reports, moving 5.1% on average across the report.
What is Alcoa’s 52-week high and low?
Alcoa’s 52-week high is $84.38 and its 52-week low is $31.45; it closed at $42.25 on Sep 28, 2026, +34.3% over the past year. Over the last five years the shares peaked at $98.09 on Mar 25, 2022.
Is Alcoa stock a buy right now?
Gekko describes the data; it does not make buy or sell recommendations. On the swing-trade checklist, 3 of the 6 items with data read as supportive (gekkoindex, smart money and seasonality), 1 as mixed (fair value) and 2 as headwinds (trend and earnings risk). The checklist is a description of current data, not a recommendation.
Is there unusual options activity in Alcoa?
Gekko flagged 1 unusual options signal in Alcoa over the last 30 days, with $295K of flagged premium in calls and $167K in puts. The latest, bullish flow, was on Sep 26, 2026 with $462K in unusual premium. The signal-by-signal table is in Gekko.
How this page works
During US trading hours the price at the top of the page is a delayed quote, refreshed every 15 minutes; everything else is rebuilt after each US market close. The GekkoIndex, Gekko Fair Value and the checklist are Gekko’s own, and the Gekko Brief is written by AI from this page’s data and checked against it before it is published. How Gekko’s data works →
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