Insider buying last 90 days
No open-market insider purchases were filed for YMM in the last 90 days.
From Form 4 filings, dated to when each was filed.
Every YMM insider filing, plotted on the chart in Gekko.Open YMM in Gekko
Full Truck Alliance (YMM) Stock Analysis & Forecast
Sep 28 close
$8.20+0.07 (+0.9%)
Gekko Brief
AI summaryFull Truck Alliance reported free cash flow of $643.1 million for fiscal year 2025, up 62.1% from the prior year, a figure the company frames as a turnaround from negative free cash flow in 2021 to sustained positive generation. Separately, YMM was upgraded to Buy, with the note pointing to a positive outlook for earnings that has historically correlated with near-term price movement.
YMM closed at $8.20, up 0.9%, but remains below both its 50-day average of $8.80 and 200-day average of $9.11, with the 50-day sitting below the 200-day. Over the past year the stock is down 37%, though the 3-month and 6-month returns are modestly positive at 1.5% and 1.6%. The GekkoIndex reads 63.2, placing YMM in the Accumulation zone, while the current price sits 13.7% below the Gekko Fair Value of $9.50.
The next earnings report is scheduled for 16 November 2026, 48 days out, placing it beyond a typical 20-trading-day window. No insider, Congress, or unusual options activity appears in the recent windows. Seasonally, the next 20 trading days from this point in the calendar have averaged a decline of 4.5% over 5 years, rising in 2 of those years. Analyst consensus among 5 firms includes 4 Buy and 1 Hold ratings, with a consensus target of $12.55.
Written by AI and checked automatically against the figures on this page. Generated Sep 29, 2026 from the data above.
Full Truck Alliance price vs fair value
Close $8.20200-day averageGekko Fair Value $9.50
Full Truck Alliance quick facts
- Market cap
- $8.58B
- P/E ratio
- 13.6
- Forward P/E
- 19.5
- EPS, TTM
- $0.60
- Revenue, TTM
- $12.78B
- Profit margin
- 33%
- Dividend yield
- 4.03%
- Beta
- 0.23
- Volume
- 7.69M avg 4.73M
- 1-year return
- −37.0%
- Typical daily move
- ±2.1%
- Typical 20-day move
- ±8.4%
- 50-day average
- $8.80
- 200-day average
- $9.11
- Next earnings
- Nov 16 before open
- Shares outstanding
- 932.5M
Full Truck Alliance swing-trade checklist
Full Truck Alliance scores 3 supportive, 0 mixed and 2 headwinds across the 5 checklist items with data.
Six things swing traders check before a 20-day hold, read from the latest data.
3 supportive0 mixed2 headwinds
- Trendheadwind
Below 50 and 200-day
Close $8.20 is below the 50-day ($8.80) and 200-day ($9.11) averages, and the 50-day is below the 200-day.
See the chart - GekkoIndexsupportive
63.2, Accumulation
Reading 63.2 is in the Accumulation zone.
See the GekkoIndex - Fair valuesupportive
13.7% below
Price is 13.7% below Gekko Fair Value (more than 5% below).
See fair value - Smart moneyno data
No data
No insider, Congress or unusual options activity in the window.
See smart money - Earnings risksupportive
Reports in 48 days
Next report Nov 16, 2026, 48 days away — outside a typical 20-trading-day hold.
See earnings - Seasonalityheadwind
−4.5% on average
From this point in the calendar, the next 20 trading days averaged −4.5% over 5 years, rising in 2 of them.
See seasonality
A description of current data, not a recommendation. How this page works
Full Truck Alliance stock chart and price history
Full Truck Alliance closed at $8.20 on Sep 28, 2026, −37.0% over the past year, inside a 52-week range of $7.46 to $14.07.
Close50-day average200-day averageVolume
Use the left and right arrow keys to read daily values.
Performance Breakdown
- 1 month
- −6.5%
- 3 months
- +1.5%
- 6 months
- +1.6%
- 1 year
- −37.0%
The full YMM chart adds GekkoIndex, insider, options, Congress and hedge fund markers, plus TrendCandles™.Open YMM in Gekko
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About Full Truck Alliance
Full Truck Alliance runs a digital platform in China that links shippers with truck drivers, helping move cargo of varying distances, weights, and types. It is known for matching freight loads to available carriers and handling the brokerage work that connects the two sides, along with built-in online payment processing to complete transactions.
Beyond matching loads to trucks, the company offers services that support both shippers and drivers, including financing, insurance, electronic toll handling, and energy-related offerings. It also invests in technology development and other functions that back up its core matching and brokerage work, serving cargo owners and truck drivers as its main users.
Full Truck Alliance was founded in 2011 and is based in Guiyang, China. Its shares trade under the ticker YMM.
- Sector
- Technology services
- Website
- fulltruckalliance.com
Full Truck Alliance GekkoIndex: the smart money zone
Full Truck Alliance’s GekkoIndex — Gekko’s 0 to 100 smart money score — reads 63.2, in the Accumulation zone, down 2.2 points over five sessions.
63.2Accumulation
Down 2.2 points over five sessions.
Reading for Sep 28, 2026
What followed past readings in each zone
| Zone | Readings | 5 days | 20 days | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Buying | 6 | Too few readings yet | |||
| Accumulation (current zone) | 61 | +0.8% | +3.4% | ||
| Neutral | 61 | −0.4% | −2.1% | ||
| Distribution | 1 | Too few readings yet | |||
| Selling | 0 | Not available | |||
Average YMM share-price change over the trading days after each daily reading in its GekkoIndex history. Across every stock Gekko tracks, Accumulation readings averaged +2.3% over 20 days. Past behaviour doesn’t guarantee future results.
Accumulation zone: Institutional interest building. About the five zones →
See every daily GekkoIndex reading plotted over the YMM price, zone by zone.Track YMM in Gekko
Is Full Truck Alliance stock overvalued? Gekko Fair Value
Full Truck Alliance trades 13.7% below Gekko Fair Value of $9.50, so the shares are undervalued on Gekko’s estimate.
Gekko’s own estimate of what Full Truck Alliance shares are worth, recalculated every trading day.
$9.50
Gekko Fair Value, Sep 26, 2026
13.7% Undervalued
Gekko Fair Value on every chart, with the gap to price updating daily.Open YMM in Gekko
Full Truck Alliance insider and Congress trading
No open-market insider purchases were filed for Full Truck Alliance, and no Congress trades were disclosed, in the last 90 days.
Plus buybacks, unusual options and fund positions, each dated to when it became public.
Congress trades last 90 days
No trades in YMM were disclosed by members of Congress in the last 90 days.
From congressional disclosures, which report amounts as ranges.
Congress disclosures for YMM, plotted on the chart in Gekko.Open YMM in Gekko
Hedge funds and billionaires quarter ended Jun 30
1of the funds Gekko tracks holds YMM.
0added0opened1trimmed1sold out
Which funds are on each side, name by name.Unlock in Gekko
Full Truck Alliance earnings: next date and track record
Full Truck Alliance reports on Nov 16, 2026, before the open (48 days away), and beat the EPS estimate in 6 of its last 8 reports.
Next earnings report
Nov 16, 2026
Expected before the open, 48 days away
- EPS estimate
- $0.20
- Revenue estimate
- $492.9M
6 of 8reports beat the EPS estimate
±8.2%average move across the report
4 of 8reports followed by a gain
Share-price move across each report
Last earnings call, Mar 11, 2026 AI summary
- What they said
- Full Truck Alliance reported strong Q4 and fiscal 2025 results with total fulfilled orders reaching 63.9 million for the quarter (12.3% YoY growth) and 236 million for the full year (19.8% YoY growth). Net revenues reached RMB 12.49 billion for fiscal 2025, up 11.1% year-over-year, with transaction service revenues growing 38.2% to RMB 5.32 billion. Net income increased 42.8% to RMB 4.46 billion, while adjusted net income grew 19.3% to RMB 4.79 billion. The company continues expanding AI integration across logistics operations.
- Guidance
- Management plans to consistently elevate user experience for shippers and truckers while fully integrating AI across the logistics value chain. The company will continue advancing strategic initiatives in autonomous driving and overseas markets expansion.
| Reported | EPS | Revenue | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 11, 2026 | $1.01 est $0.97 | $480.1M est $446.9M | −3.1% |
| Nov 19, 2025 | $0.93 est $1.02 | $471.7M est $3.13B | −6.8% |
| Aug 21, 2025 | $0.18 est $0.16 | $451.7M est $3.12B | +15.6% |
| May 21, 2025 | $0.18 est $0.17 | $370.8M est $3.05B | −7.9% |
| Mar 5, 2025 | $0.99 est $0.98 | $434.7M est $2.65B | +13.8% |
| Nov 20, 2024 | $1.17 est $1.03 | $432.0M est $390.0M | +13.2% |
| Aug 21, 2024 | $0.13 est $0.13 | $380.4M est $376.7M | +3.0% |
| May 21, 2024 | $0.10 est $0.07 | $313.7M est $313.2M | −1.9% |
“Move” is the close of the first session after the report compared with the close of the last session before it, so it reads the same whether the company reported before the open or after the close.
Full Truck Alliance stock forecast and analyst price targets
Analysts’ average 12-month price target for Full Truck Alliance is $12.55, +53.0% from the last close, from 5 firms rating the stock in the last 90 days.
$12.55consensus 12-month target, +53.0% from the last close
Now $8.20Avg $12.55
Low $10.50High $14
Each firm’s latest rating in the last 90 days: 5 firms.
Latest analyst actions
| Date | Firm | Target | vs price |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 28 | Bank of America Securities | $10.50 | +28.0% |
| Sep 3 | J.P. Morgan | $11 | +34.1% |
| Aug 20 | Barclays | $12 | +46.3% |
| Aug 19 | Morgan Stanley | $14 | +70.7% |
| Aug 5 | UBS | $13.36 | +62.9% |
+3.4%average 20-day move after past Accumulation readings
−4.5%average move over the next 20 trading days in the last 5 years
±2.1%typical daily move, from the 14-day average range
Gekko doesn’t publish price predictions. These are analyst targets and historical base rates, which don’t guarantee future results.
Full Truck Alliance seasonality: the next 20 trading days
Over the next 20 trading days from Sep 29, Full Truck Alliance averaged −4.5% across the last 5 years, rising in 2 of them.
Next 20 trading days, by year
Average move and hit rate
| Window | Average | Years higher |
|---|---|---|
| Next 5 trading days | +5.4% | 4 of 5 |
| Next 10 trading days | −3.7% | 1 of 5 |
| Next 15 trading days | −3.1% | 1 of 5 |
| Next 20 trading days | −4.5% | 2 of 5 |
| Next 30 trading days | −4.2% | 1 of 5 |
For scale, YMM’s typical 20-trading-day move in either direction is about 8.4%.
Full Truck Alliance market cap and key statistics
Full Truck Alliance’s market cap is $8.58B, with a P/E ratio of 13.6 and revenue of $12.78B over the last twelve months.
Valuation
- Market cap
- $8.58B
- P/E ratio
- 13.6
- Forward P/E
- 19.5
- EPS, TTM
- $0.60
- Gekko Fair Value
- $9.50
Trading
- Volume
- 7.69M
- Avg volume, 20 days
- 4.73M
- 52-week high
- $14.07
- 52-week low
- $7.46
- Shares outstanding
- 932.5M
Financials
- Revenue, TTM
- $12.78B
- Profit margin
- 33%
- Return on equity
- 10.4%
- Quarterly earnings growth, YoY
- +0.4%
Risk and income
- Beta
- 0.23
- Typical daily move
- ±2.1%
- Typical 20-day move
- ±8.4%
- Dividend yield
- 4.03%
Full Truck Alliance stock news this week
2 headlines about Full Truck Alliance from the past week, newest first, each linking to the publisher.
- YMM Free Cash Flow 2025: $643.1M, up 62.1%Stock Titan, Sep 28
- Full Truck Alliance (YMM) Upgraded to Buy: Here's WhyEastern Progress, Sep 23
Full Truck Alliance stock FAQ
What is Full Truck Alliance’s market cap?
Full Truck Alliance’s market cap is $8.58B at the Sep 28, 2026 close of $8.20, with 932.5M shares outstanding. The shares trade on a P/E ratio of 13.6.
What is the Full Truck Alliance stock forecast?
The consensus analyst 12-month price target for Full Truck Alliance is $12.55, +53.0% from the last close. Of the 5 firms that rated the stock in the last 90 days, 4 rate it a buy, 1 a hold and 0 a sell. Gekko doesn’t publish price predictions of its own.
Is Full Truck Alliance stock overvalued or undervalued?
On Gekko’s estimate Full Truck Alliance is undervalued: the Sep 28, 2026 close of $8.20 is 13.7% below Gekko Fair Value of $9.50. Gekko Fair Value is recalculated every trading day, and a gap inside 5% either way counts as about fair value.
When does Full Truck Alliance report earnings next?
Full Truck Alliance is expected to report on Nov 16, 2026, before the market opens (48 days away). Analysts expect earnings of $0.20 per share on revenue of $492.9M. Full Truck Alliance beat the earnings estimate in 6 of its last 8 reports, moving 8.2% on average across the report.
What is Full Truck Alliance’s 52-week high and low?
Full Truck Alliance’s 52-week high is $14.07 and its 52-week low is $7.46; it closed at $8.20 on Sep 28, 2026, −37.0% over the past year. Over the last five years the shares peaked at $17.55 on Oct 20, 2021.
Is Full Truck Alliance stock a buy right now?
Gekko describes the data; it does not make buy or sell recommendations. On the swing-trade checklist, 3 of the 5 items with data read as supportive (gekkoindex, fair value and earnings risk) and 2 as headwinds (trend and seasonality). The checklist is a description of current data, not a recommendation.
How this page works
During US trading hours the price at the top of the page is a delayed quote, refreshed every 15 minutes; everything else is rebuilt after each US market close. The GekkoIndex, Gekko Fair Value and the checklist are Gekko’s own, and the Gekko Brief is written by AI from this page’s data and checked against it before it is published. How Gekko’s data works →
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