Insider buying last 90 days
No open-market insider purchases were filed for VALE in the last 90 days.
From Form 4 filings, dated to when each was filed.
Every VALE insider filing, plotted on the chart in Gekko.Open VALE in Gekko
VALE (VALE) Stock Analysis & Forecast
$14.21−0.26 (−1.8%)
Close on Sep 18, 2026. Page updated Sep 19, 9:19 pm ET.
Gekko Brief
AI summaryVALE closes at $14.21, down 1.8%, sitting below both its 50-day average of $14.68 and its 200-day average of $15.29, with the 50-day also below the 200-day. The GekkoIndex reads 62.7, placing the stock in the Accumulation zone. Gekko Fair Value stands at $22.48, putting price 36.8% below that level.
Recent commentary centers on Vale's business mix rather than a single catalyst. Iron ore remains a modest contributor, with realized prices near $95/t and cost pressure limiting earnings upside there, while Vale Base Metals is gaining weight, with copper now driving most of VBM's EBITDA and shifting the overall earnings profile. Separately, trading coverage noted a session where shares settled at $14.61, a decline versus the prior close.
Vale's next earnings report is set for 29 October 2026, 39 days out and beyond a typical 20-trading-day hold. The prior report on 30 July showed EPS of $0.36 against a $0.41 estimate, with an average absolute reaction of 3.2% across recent quarters. Analyst views span 13 firms, with 3 buy, 9 hold and 1 sell, and a consensus target of $16.66. Seasonality over the next 20 trading days has averaged -1.5% across 5 years, rising in 2 of them, a pattern worth noting alongside the current gap to Gekko Fair Value.
Written by AI and checked automatically against the figures on this page. Generated Sep 20, 2026 from the data above.
Price vs fair value
Close $14.21200-day averageGekko Fair Value $22.48
Key stats
- Market cap
- $60.60B
- P/E ratio
- 28.4
- Forward P/E
- 7.2
- EPS, TTM
- $0.51
- Revenue, TTM
- $218.1B
- Profit margin
- 4.8%
- Dividend yield
- 38.80%
- Beta
- 0.75
- Volume
- 16.87M avg 30.42M
- 1-year return
- +30.6%
- Typical daily move
- ±3.4%
- Typical 20-day move
- ±6.7%
- 50-day average
- $14.68
- 200-day average
- $15.29
- Next earnings
- Oct 29
- Shares outstanding
- 4.26B
VALE swing-trade checklist
VALE scores 3 supportive, 0 mixed and 2 headwinds across the 5 checklist items with data.
Six things swing traders check before a 20-day hold, read from the latest data.
3 supportive0 mixed2 headwinds
- Trendheadwind
Below 50 and 200-day
Close $14.21 is below the 50-day ($14.68) and 200-day ($15.29) averages, and the 50-day is below the 200-day.
See the chart - GekkoIndexsupportive
62.7, Accumulation
Reading 62.7 is in the Accumulation zone.
See the GekkoIndex - Fair valuesupportive
36.8% below
Price is 36.8% below Gekko Fair Value (more than 5% below).
See fair value - Smart moneyno data
No data
No insider, Congress or unusual options activity in the window.
See smart money - Earnings risksupportive
Reports in 39 days
Next report Oct 29, 2026, 39 days away — outside a typical 20-trading-day hold.
See earnings - Seasonalityheadwind
−1.5% on average
From this point in the calendar, the next 20 trading days averaged −1.5% over 5 years, rising in 2 of them.
See seasonality
A description of current data, not a recommendation. How this page works
VALE stock chart and price history
VALE closed at $14.21 on Sep 18, 2026, +30.6% over the past year, inside a 52-week range of $10.58 to $17.94.
Close50-day average200-day averageVolume
Use the left and right arrow keys to read daily values.
Performance Breakdown
- 1 month
- +2.2%
- 3 months
- −7.8%
- 6 months
- −2.9%
- 1 year
- +30.6%
The full VALE chart adds GekkoIndex, insider, options, Congress and hedge fund markers, plus TrendCandles™.Open VALE in Gekko
Follow VALE through every session
Put VALE on a Gekko watchlist and see its GekkoIndex, Gekko Fair Value and smart money signals update on the chart as they change.
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About VALE
Vale mines and sells materials that feed into heavy industry worldwide, drawing most of its business from iron ore and its pellet form, along with nickel and copper. It runs operations both inside Brazil and abroad, and it has built its reputation chiefly around supplying iron ore to global markets.
The company splits its work into two divisions. One is centered on digging up and processing iron ore and pellets, plus other ferrous goods, and it also arranges the shipping and handling these products require. The second division mines nickel and, in doing so, produces side materials such as gold, silver, and cobalt, while also supplying copper that gets used in building wiring and pipes.
Vale got its start in 1942 under a different name, Companhia Vale do Rio Doce, before switching to its present title in May 2009. Its home base is Rio de Janeiro, Brazil, and its stock can be found trading under the ticker VALE.
- Sector
- Non-energy minerals
- Website
- vale.com
VALE GekkoIndex: the smart money zone
VALE’s GekkoIndex — Gekko’s 0 to 100 smart money score — reads 62.7, in the Accumulation zone, up 8.1 points over five sessions.
62.7Accumulation
Up 8.1 points over five sessions, from the Neutral zone.
Reading for Sep 18, 2026
What followed past readings in each zone
| Zone | Readings | 5 days | 20 days | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Buying | 32 | +0.7% | +0.6% | ||
| Accumulation (current zone) | 196 | +0.9% | +1.8% | ||
| Neutral | 348 | −0.1% | +0.4% | ||
| Distribution | 39 | +0.3% | +3.2% | ||
| Selling | 0 | Not available | |||
Average VALE share-price change over the trading days after each daily reading in its GekkoIndex history. Across every stock Gekko tracks, Accumulation readings averaged +2.3% over 20 days. Past behaviour doesn’t guarantee future results.
Accumulation zone: Institutional interest building. About the five zones →
See every daily GekkoIndex reading plotted over the VALE price, zone by zone.Track VALE in Gekko
Is VALE stock overvalued? Gekko Fair Value
VALE trades 36.8% below Gekko Fair Value of $22.48, so the shares are undervalued on Gekko’s estimate.
Gekko’s own estimate of what VALE shares are worth, recalculated every trading day.
$22.48
Gekko Fair Value, Sep 19, 2026
36.8% Undervalued
Gekko Fair Value on every chart, with the gap to price updating daily.Open VALE in Gekko
VALE insider and Congress trading
No open-market insider purchases were filed for VALE, and no Congress trades were disclosed, in the last 90 days.
Plus buybacks, unusual options and fund positions, each dated to when it became public.
Congress trades last 90 days
No trades in VALE were disclosed by members of Congress in the last 90 days.
From congressional disclosures, which report amounts as ranges.
Congress disclosures for VALE, plotted on the chart in Gekko.Open VALE in Gekko
Buybacks
VALE has been buying back its own shares.
- Bought back, quarter ended Jun 30, 2026
- $139.9M
- As a share of market cap
- 0.23%
From company filings.
Hedge funds and billionaires quarter ended Jun 30
1of the funds Gekko tracks holds VALE.
0added0opened1trimmed1sold out
Which funds are on each side, name by name.Unlock in Gekko
VALE earnings: next date and track record
VALE reports on Oct 29, 2026 (39 days away), and beat the EPS estimate in 3 of its last 8 reports.
Next earnings report
Oct 29, 2026
39 days away
- EPS estimate
- $0.50
- Revenue estimate
- $10.73B
3 of 8reports beat the EPS estimate
±3.2%average move across the report
5 of 8reports followed by a gain
Share-price move across each report
Last earnings call, Jul 30, 2026 AI summary
- What they said
- Vale reported strong Q2 2026 operational and financial performance with pro forma EBITDA of $4.1 billion (up 19% YoY), supported by higher volumes, improved price realization and solid execution across iron ore and base metals. Management highlighted record Q2 iron ore production (highest second quarter since 2018), ramp-ups at Capanema, Vargem Grande and S11D, narrowed guidance ranges for copper and nickel (higher midpoints), and acceleration of growth projects (Serra Sul plus 20, earlier Bacaba start). The Board approved $1.7 billion in dividends and interest on capital (to be paid in September) and extended the share buyback program up to 2.3% of outstanding shares. Costs increased (C1 $24.1/t, +9% YoY; all-in $61.6/t, +18% YoY), driven mainly by BRL appreciation, higher diesel and freight; management stressed hedging/long-term freight contracts and efficiency programs that delivered savings and productivity gains (e.g., Conceição +25%). Vale reiterated confidence in meeting production guidances and emphasized disciplined capital allocation, innovation, and the build-out of Vale Base Metals.
- Guidance
- Management reiterated confidence in achieving 2026 production guidances and announced narrowed guidance ranges for copper and nickel (higher midpoints). Board-approved shareholder returns: $1.7 billion in dividends/interest on capital (September) and extension of share buyback program up to 2.3% of outstanding shares. Management expects expanded net debt to be close to $15 billion by year-end (which will guide H2 capital allocation decisions). Hedging: ~70% fuel/freight hedged for 2027 at an average Brent-equivalent ~ $77/bbl. No explicit numeric revenue/EBITDA/production figures beyond these ranges were provided in the call transcript.
- Risks flagged
- BRL appreciation and higher diesel and freight costs (external cost pressures); volatility in freight and oil markets; geopolitical risks (Middle East conflict) potentially affecting logistics and costs; regulatory uncertainty from the proposed Caves decree (potentially impacting Northern Range production timing and permits); ore quality degradation and depletion trends; near-term operational risks (e.g., Sossego maintenance and plant stoppages).
| Reported | EPS | Revenue | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Jul 30, 2026 | $0.36 est $0.41 | $10.50B est $10.47B | +2.8% |
| Apr 28, 2026 | $0.44 est $0.45 | $9.26B est $9.53B | −7.1% |
| Feb 12, 2026 | −$0.90 est $0.57 | $11.06B est $10.90B | −4.2% |
| Oct 30, 2025 | $0.63 est $0.49 | $10.41B est $10.81B | +2.2% |
| Jul 31, 2025 | $0.50 est $0.42 | $8.80B est $9.40B | +0.8% |
| Apr 24, 2025 | $0.35 est $0.38 | $8.12B est $9.45B | −0.5% |
| Feb 19, 2025 | $0.20 est $0.52 | $9.60B est $10.05B | +3.5% |
| Oct 24, 2024 | $0.56 est $0.46 | $9.55B est $10.84B | +4.5% |
“Move” is the close of the first session after the report compared with the close of the last session before it, so it reads the same whether the company reported before the open or after the close.
VALE stock forecast and analyst price targets
Analysts’ average 12-month price target for VALE is $16.66, +17.2% from the last close, from 13 firms rating the stock in the last 90 days.
$16.66consensus 12-month target, +17.2% from the last close
Now $14.21Avg $16.66
Low $12High $21
Each firm’s latest rating in the last 90 days: 13 firms.
Latest analyst actions
| Date | Firm | Target | vs price |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 14 | Bernstein | — | — |
| Sep 9 | Bernstein | $12.50 | −12.0% |
| Sep 3 | Freedom Capital Markets | $12 | −15.6% |
| Aug 11 | UBS | $16.50 | +16.1% |
| Aug 7 | Scotiabank | $16 | +12.6% |
+1.8%average 20-day move after past Accumulation readings
−1.5%average move over the next 20 trading days in the last 5 years
±3.4%typical daily move, from the 14-day average range
Gekko doesn’t publish price predictions. These are analyst targets and historical base rates, which don’t guarantee future results.
VALE seasonality: the next 20 trading days
Over the next 20 trading days from Sep 19, VALE averaged −1.5% across the last 5 years, rising in 2 of them.
Next 20 trading days, by year
Average move and hit rate
| Window | Average | Years higher |
|---|---|---|
| Next 5 trading days | −3.5% | 1 of 5 |
| Next 10 trading days | −0.4% | 3 of 5 |
| Next 15 trading days | −1.2% | 2 of 5 |
| Next 20 trading days | −1.5% | 2 of 5 |
| Next 30 trading days | −2.3% | 2 of 5 |
For scale, VALE’s typical 20-trading-day move in either direction is about 6.7%.
VALE market cap and key statistics
VALE’s market cap is $60.60B, with a P/E ratio of 28.4 and revenue of $218.1B over the last twelve months.
Valuation
- Market cap
- $60.60B
- P/E ratio
- 28.4
- Forward P/E
- 7.2
- EPS, TTM
- $0.51
- Gekko Fair Value
- $22.48
Trading
- Volume
- 16.87M
- Avg volume, 20 days
- 30.42M
- 52-week high
- $17.94
- 52-week low
- $10.58
- Shares outstanding
- 4.26B
Financials
- Revenue, TTM
- $218.1B
- Profit margin
- 4.8%
- Return on equity
- 4.1%
- Quarterly earnings growth, YoY
- −43.5%
Risk and income
- Beta
- 0.75
- Typical daily move
- ±3.4%
- Typical 20-day move
- ±6.7%
- Dividend yield
- 38.80%
VALE stock news this week
2 headlines about VALE from the past week, newest first, each linking to the publisher.
- Vale: Base Metals Are Supporting The MultipleSeeking Alpha, Sep 17
- VALE S.A. (VALE) Declines More Than Market: Some Information for InvestorsZacks Investment Research, Sep 14
VALE stock FAQ
What is VALE’s market cap?
VALE’s market cap is $60.60B at the Sep 18, 2026 close of $14.21, with 4.26B shares outstanding. The shares trade on a P/E ratio of 28.4.
What is the VALE stock forecast?
The consensus analyst 12-month price target for VALE is $16.66, +17.2% from the last close. Of the 13 firms that rated the stock in the last 90 days, 3 rate it a buy, 9 a hold and 1 a sell. Gekko doesn’t publish price predictions of its own.
Is VALE stock overvalued or undervalued?
On Gekko’s estimate VALE is undervalued: the Sep 18, 2026 close of $14.21 is 36.8% below Gekko Fair Value of $22.48. Gekko Fair Value is recalculated every trading day, and a gap inside 5% either way counts as about fair value.
When does VALE report earnings next?
VALE is expected to report on Oct 29, 2026 (39 days away). Analysts expect earnings of $0.50 per share on revenue of $10.73B. VALE beat the earnings estimate in 3 of its last 8 reports, moving 3.2% on average across the report.
What is VALE’s 52-week high and low?
VALE’s 52-week high is $17.94 and its 52-week low is $10.58; it closed at $14.21 on Sep 18, 2026, +30.6% over the past year.
Is VALE stock a buy right now?
Gekko describes the data; it does not make buy or sell recommendations. On the swing-trade checklist, 3 of the 5 items with data read as supportive (gekkoindex, fair value and earnings risk) and 2 as headwinds (trend and seasonality). The checklist is a description of current data, not a recommendation.
How this page works
Prices and signals update after every US market close; the GekkoIndex, Gekko Fair Value and the checklist are Gekko’s own, and the Gekko Brief is written by AI from this page’s data and checked against it before it is published. How Gekko’s data works →
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