NYSE: ACA

Arcosa (ACA) Stock Analysis & Forecast

Sep 28 close

$146.53−0.09 (−0.1%)

Gekko Brief

AI summary

Arcosa's stock activity this week centers on its pending acquisition by CRH, approved by shareholders at $150 per share, with the deal expected to close in Q1 2027. Shares have traded consistently below that offer price, near $146.52 to $146.75 across recent sessions, alongside a surge in trading volume. The company's Q2 2026 results showed revenue of $658.7 million, up 2% year-over-year but below the $687.5 million expected, while adjusted EPS of $1.13 missed the $1.18 estimate. Seven brokerages maintain a consensus "Hold" rating, with price targets cited at $141.25 following recent downward revisions.

The stock closed at $146.53, essentially flat on the day, and sits above both its 50-day average of $145.36 and 200-day average of $126.48, reflecting a one-year return of 59.9% and a six-month return of 42.5%. The GekkoIndex reads 44.6, placing the stock in the Distribution zone. Price stands 25% above Gekko Fair Value of $117.27, a gap wider than the 5% threshold typically flagged.

Over the next 20 trading days, the next earnings report is scheduled for 29 October 2026, falling just outside that window. The prior quarter's report drew a modest -0.2% reaction despite the EPS miss, with the company beating estimates in 6 of the last 8 quarters and an average absolute reaction of 7.3%. Seasonality across 5 years shows a 2.2% average move over comparable 20-day stretches, positive in 3 of those years. No insider, Congress, or unusual options activity appears in the current windows, leaving the pending CRH transaction as the dominant factor to monitor.

Written by AI and checked automatically against the figures on this page. Generated Sep 29, 2026 from the data above.

Arcosa price vs fair value

$146.53$117.27Sep ’25Mar ’26Sep ’26
Close $146.53200-day averageGekko Fair Value $117.27

Arcosa quick facts

Market cap
$7.20B
P/E ratio
32.7
Forward P/E
29.9
EPS, TTM
$4.49
Revenue, TTM
$2.92B
Profit margin
16.8%
Dividend yield
0.14%
Beta
1.07
Volume
1.11M avg 684,867
1-year return
+59.9%
Typical daily move
±0.3%
Typical 20-day move
±5.4%
50-day average
$145.36
200-day average
$126.48
Next earnings
Oct 29
Shares outstanding
49.11M
52-week range
$89.03$146.92

Arcosa swing-trade checklist

Arcosa scores 3 supportive, 0 mixed and 2 headwinds across the 5 checklist items with data.

Six things swing traders check before a 20-day hold, read from the latest data.

3 supportive0 mixed2 headwinds

  • Trendsupportive

    Above 50 and 200-day

    Close $146.53 is above the 50-day ($145.36) and 200-day ($126.48) averages, and the 50-day is above the 200-day.

    See the chart
  • GekkoIndexheadwind

    44.6, Distribution

    Reading 44.6 is in the Distribution zone.

    See the GekkoIndex
  • Fair valueheadwind

    25.0% above

    Price is 25% above Gekko Fair Value (more than 5% above).

    See fair value
  • Smart moneyno data

    No data

    No insider, Congress or unusual options activity in the window.

    See smart money
  • Earnings risksupportive

    Reports in 30 days

    Next report Oct 29, 2026, 30 days away — outside a typical 20-trading-day hold.

    See earnings
  • Seasonalitysupportive

    +2.2% on average

    From this point in the calendar, the next 20 trading days averaged +2.2% over 5 years, rising in 3 of them.

    See seasonality

A description of current data, not a recommendation. How this page works

Arcosa stock chart and price history

Arcosa closed at $146.53 on Sep 28, 2026, +59.9% over the past year, inside a 52-week range of $89.03 to $146.92.

Close50-day average200-day averageVolume
Arcosa share price, past year, with 50-day and 200-day moving averages and volume$100$120$140NovDecJan 2026FebMarAprMayJunJulAugSep146.53

Use the left and right arrow keys to read daily values.

Performance Breakdown

1 month
+0.7%
3 months
+1.3%
6 months
+42.5%
1 year
+59.9%
The full ACA chart adds GekkoIndex, insider, options, Congress and hedge fund markers, plus TrendCandles™.Open ACA in Gekko

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Arcosa GekkoIndex: the smart money zone

Arcosa’s GekkoIndex — Gekko’s 0 to 100 smart money score — reads 44.6, in the Distribution zone, down 2 points over five sessions.

010044.6Distribution

Down 2 points over five sessions, from the Neutral zone.

Reading for Sep 28, 2026

What followed past readings in each zone

ZoneReadings5 days10 days20 days50 days
Buying27+0.2%+2.6%+2.5%+7.4%
Accumulation146+1.7%+2.8%+5.5%+8.4%
Neutral459+0.4%+0.7%+1.5%+4.7%
Distribution (current zone)34−1.0%−1.3%−2.5%−0.8%
Selling6Too few readings yet

Average ACA share-price change over the trading days after each daily reading in its GekkoIndex history. Across every stock Gekko tracks, Distribution readings averaged +1.2% over 20 days. Past behaviour doesn’t guarantee future results.

Distribution zone: Institutions potentially offloading. About the five zones →

See every daily GekkoIndex reading plotted over the ACA price, zone by zone.Track ACA in Gekko

Is Arcosa stock overvalued? Gekko Fair Value

Arcosa trades 25.0% above Gekko Fair Value of $117.27, so the shares are overvalued on Gekko’s estimate.

Gekko’s own estimate of what Arcosa shares are worth, recalculated every trading day.

$117.27

Gekko Fair Value, Sep 29, 2026

25.0% Overvalued

How Gekko Fair Value works →

Gekko Fair Value on every chart, with the gap to price updating daily.Open ACA in Gekko

Arcosa insider and Congress trading

No open-market insider purchases were filed for Arcosa, and no Congress trades were disclosed, in the last 90 days.

Plus buybacks, unusual options and fund positions, each dated to when it became public.

Insider buying last 90 days

No open-market insider purchases were filed for ACA in the last 90 days.

From Form 4 filings, dated to when each was filed.

Every ACA insider filing, plotted on the chart in Gekko.Open ACA in Gekko

Congress trades last 90 days

No trades in ACA were disclosed by members of Congress in the last 90 days.

From congressional disclosures, which report amounts as ranges.

Congress disclosures for ACA, plotted on the chart in Gekko.Open ACA in Gekko

Buybacks

Arcosa has been buying back its own shares.

Bought back, quarter ended Jun 30, 2026
$1.10M
As a share of market cap
0.02%

From company filings.

Hedge funds and billionaires quarter ended Jun 30

0of the funds Gekko tracks hold ACA.

0added0opened0trimmed1sold out
Which funds are on each side, name by name.Unlock in Gekko

Arcosa earnings: next date and track record

Arcosa reports on Oct 29, 2026 (30 days away), and beat the EPS estimate in 6 of its last 8 reports.

6 of 8reports beat the EPS estimate
±7.3%average move across the report
3 of 8reports followed by a gain

Share-price move across each report

−0.7%Oct ’24−10.2%Feb ’25−2.3%May ’25+13.2%Aug ’25+9.5%Oct ’25−15.1%Feb ’26+7.1%Apr ’26−0.2%Aug ’26
ReportedEPSSurpriseRevenueSurpriseMove
Aug 5, 2026$1.13
est $1.19
−5.0%$658.7M
est $687.5M
−4.2%−0.2%
Apr 30, 2026$0.77
est $0.32
+140.6%$571.7M
est $642.4M
−11.0%+7.1%
Feb 26, 2026$1.15
est $0.95
+21.1%$716.7M
est $719.5M
−0.4%−15.1%
Oct 30, 2025$1.56
est $1.33
+17.3%$797.8M
est $719.5M
+10.9%+9.5%
Aug 7, 2025$1.27
est $1.05
+21.0%$736.9M
est $774.8M
−4.9%+13.2%
May 6, 2025$0.49
est $0.29
+69.0%$632.0M
est $764.5M
−17.3%−2.3%
Feb 27, 2025$0.46
est $0.79
−41.8%$666.2M
est $690.3M
−3.5%−10.2%
Oct 30, 2024$0.91
est $0.78
+16.7%$640.4M
est $692.7M
−7.5%−0.7%

“Move” is the close of the first session after the report compared with the close of the last session before it, so it reads the same whether the company reported before the open or after the close.

Arcosa stock forecast and analyst price targets

Analysts’ average 12-month price target for Arcosa is $146.67, +0.1% from the last close, from 1 firm rating the stock in the last 90 days.

$146.67consensus 12-month target, +0.1% from the last close
Buy0
Hold1
Sell0

Each firm’s latest rating in the last 90 days: 1 firm.

Latest analyst actions

DateFirmRatingTargetvs price
Aug 6StephensHold, downgraded$150+2.4%
−2.5%average 20-day move after past Distribution readings
+2.2%average move over the next 20 trading days in the last 5 years
±0.3%typical daily move, from the 14-day average range

Gekko doesn’t publish price predictions. These are analyst targets and historical base rates, which don’t guarantee future results.

Arcosa seasonality: the next 20 trading days

Over the next 20 trading days from Sep 26, Arcosa averaged +2.2% across the last 5 years, rising in 3 of them.

Next 20 trading days, by year

+5.7%2021+11.2%2022−6.8%2023−0.3%2024+1.3%2025

Average move and hit rate

WindowAverageYears higher
Next 5 trading days+0.7%1 of 5
Next 10 trading days+1.4%3 of 5
Next 15 trading days+2.5%4 of 5
Next 20 trading days+2.2%3 of 5
Next 30 trading days+5.8%4 of 5

For scale, ACA’s typical 20-trading-day move in either direction is about 5.4%.

Arcosa market cap and key statistics

Arcosa’s market cap is $7.20B, with a P/E ratio of 32.7 and revenue of $2.92B over the last twelve months.

Valuation

Market cap
$7.20B
P/E ratio
32.7
Forward P/E
29.9
EPS, TTM
$4.49
Gekko Fair Value
$117.27

Trading

Volume
1.11M
Avg volume, 20 days
684,867
52-week high
$146.92
52-week low
$89.03
Shares outstanding
49.11M

Financials

Revenue, TTM
$2.92B
Profit margin
16.8%
Return on equity
8%
Quarterly earnings growth, YoY
+448.6%

Risk and income

Beta
1.07
Typical daily move
±0.3%
Typical 20-day move
±5.4%
Dividend yield
0.14%

Arcosa stock news this week

Coverage of Arcosa this week reads negative: 1 positive, 2 neutral and 2 negative headlines.

News sentiment negative

Arcosa peers

Arcosa’s 6 largest industry peers by market value, with today’s move, GekkoIndex zone and gap to Gekko Fair Value.

StockTodayGekkoIndex zonevs Fair Value
CRHCRH+0.2%Accumulation29.9% below
VMCVulcan Materials+1.3%Accumulation7.2% below
MLMMartin Marietta Materials+2.0%Accumulation8.0% below
AMRZAmrize+0.1%Accumulation32.4% below
JHXJames Hardie Industries+0.4%Accumulation10.9% below
EXPEagle Materials−2.0%Accumulation7.1% below

A peer links to its own page where one exists.

In the Buying zone today

Reporting earnings this week

Popular on Gekko

Arcosa stock FAQ

What is Arcosa’s market cap?

Arcosa’s market cap is $7.20B at the Sep 28, 2026 close of $146.53, with 49.11M shares outstanding. The shares trade on a P/E ratio of 32.7.

What is the Arcosa stock forecast?

The consensus analyst 12-month price target for Arcosa is $146.67, +0.1% from the last close. Of the 1 firm that rated the stock in the last 90 days, 0 rate it a buy, 1 a hold and 0 a sell. Gekko doesn’t publish price predictions of its own.

Is Arcosa stock overvalued or undervalued?

On Gekko’s estimate Arcosa is overvalued: the Sep 28, 2026 close of $146.53 is 25.0% above Gekko Fair Value of $117.27. Gekko Fair Value is recalculated every trading day, and a gap inside 5% either way counts as about fair value.

When does Arcosa report earnings next?

Arcosa is expected to report on Oct 29, 2026 (30 days away). Analysts expect earnings of $1.56 per share on revenue of $728.0M. Arcosa beat the earnings estimate in 6 of its last 8 reports, moving 7.3% on average across the report.

What is Arcosa’s 52-week high and low?

Arcosa’s 52-week high is $146.92 and its 52-week low is $89.03; it closed at $146.53 on Sep 28, 2026, +59.9% over the past year.

Is Arcosa stock a buy right now?

Gekko describes the data; it does not make buy or sell recommendations. On the swing-trade checklist, 3 of the 5 items with data read as supportive (trend, earnings risk and seasonality) and 2 as headwinds (gekkoindex and fair value). The checklist is a description of current data, not a recommendation.

How this page works

During US trading hours the price at the top of the page is a delayed quote, refreshed every 15 minutes; everything else is rebuilt after each US market close. The GekkoIndex, Gekko Fair Value and the checklist are Gekko’s own, and the Gekko Brief is written by AI from this page’s data and checked against it before it is published. How Gekko’s data works →

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