Tuya (TUYA) Stock Analysis & Forecast

Oct 12 close

$1.73+0.01 (+0.6%)

Gekko Brief

AI summaryOct 12 close

This week's coverage centers on Tuya's shift toward sustained GAAP profitability, with multiple stories highlighting a move from hardware sales toward software subscription revenue and a cloud-agnostic IoT software platform. Reports note a GAAP net profit of $58 million for FY 2025 and an operating margin of 8.4% for the twelve months to Q2 2026, up from 3.6% a year earlier, framing a pivot to a recurring-revenue SaaS profile. One piece also points out the stock remains down over 21% year-to-date despite this profitability narrative, and a separate monthly filing to the Stock Exchange of Hong Kong detailed changes in authorized share capital and issued shares for September 2026.

Tuya closed at $1.73, up 0.6%, but sits below both its 50-day average of $1.78 and 200-day average of $2.06, with the 50-day below the 200-day. The stock's six-month return stands at -28.5% and its one-year return at -35.7%, within a 52-week range of $1.60 to $2.64. The GekkoIndex reads 58.4, placing it in the Neutral zone, down 4.1 over five days. Price sits 24.8% below Gekko Fair Value of $2.30.

The next earnings date falls on 23 November 2026, after close, 42 days away and outside a typical 20-day hold. No insider, Congress or unusual options activity appears in the current windows. Seasonality data shows the next 20 trading days have averaged -9% over 5 years, rising in just 1 of those years, a pattern worth noting alongside the current gap to fair value.

Written by AI from the Oct 12, 2026 close and checked automatically against the figures on this page.

Tuya price vs fair value

$2.30$1.73Oct ’25Apr ’26Oct ’26
Close $1.73200-day averageGekko Fair Value $2.30

Tuya quick facts

Market cap
$1.06B
P/E ratio
15.5
Forward P/E
—
EPS, TTM
$0.11
Revenue, TTM
$340.8M
Profit margin
20.2%
Dividend yield
6.54%
Beta
0.52
Volume
171,339 avg 692,231
1-year return
−35.7%
Typical daily move
±2.7%
Typical 20-day move
±10.6%
50-day average
$1.78
200-day average
$2.06
Next earnings
Nov 23 after close
Shares outstanding
543.0M
52-week range
$1.60$2.64

Tuya swing-trade checklist

Tuya scores 2 supportive, 1 mixed and 2 headwinds across the 5 checklist items with data.

Six things swing traders check before a 20-day hold, read from the latest data.

2 supportive1 mixed2 headwinds

  • Trendheadwind

    Below 50 and 200-day

    Close $1.73 is below the 50-day ($1.78) and 200-day ($2.06) averages, and the 50-day is below the 200-day.

    See the chart
  • GekkoIndexmixed

    58.4, Neutral

    Reading 58.4 is in the Neutral zone.

    See the GekkoIndex
  • Fair valuesupportive

    24.8% below

    Price is 24.8% below Gekko Fair Value (more than 5% below).

    See fair value
  • Smart moneyno data

    No data

    No insider, Congress or unusual options activity in the window.

    See smart money
  • Earnings risksupportive

    Reports in 42 days

    Next report Nov 23, 2026, 42 days away — outside a typical 20-trading-day hold.

    See earnings
  • Seasonalityheadwind

    −9.0% on average

    From this point in the calendar, the next 20 trading days averaged −9% over 5 years, rising in 1 of them.

    See seasonality

A description of current data, not a recommendation. How this page works

Tuya stock chart and price history

Tuya closed at $1.73 on Oct 12, 2026, −35.7% over the past year, inside a 52-week range of $1.60 to $2.64.

Close50-day average200-day averageVolume
Tuya share price, past year, with 50-day and 200-day moving averages and volume$1.60$1.80$2.00$2.20$2.40$2.60NovDecJan 2026FebMarAprMayJunJulAugSepOct1.73

Use the left and right arrow keys to read daily values.

Performance Breakdown

1 month
−3.9%
3 months
−3.9%
6 months
−28.5%
1 year
−35.7%
The full TUYA chart adds GekkoIndex, insider, options, Congress and hedge fund markers, plus TrendCandles™.Open TUYA in Gekko

Follow Tuya through every session

Put TUYA on a Gekko watchlist and see its GekkoIndex, Gekko Fair Value and smart money signals update on the chart as they change.

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About Tuya

Tuya runs a cloud platform built around the Internet of Things, helping other businesses bring connected devices to life. Its main offering is a Platform-as-a-Service model that lets brands, manufacturers, and developers design, launch, monitor, and generate revenue from smart products and the services tied to them. The company is perhaps best recognized for this role as a backbone for others building smart technology rather than for a single consumer product of its own.

Alongside its PaaS business, Tuya provides Software-as-a-Service tools tailored to specific industries, giving companies a way to set up, connect, and oversee different kinds of linked hardware. It also supplies a range of supporting cloud services that help businesses, developers, and end users build and sustain their IoT setups, and it sells finished smart devices directly. Its technology reaches into areas such as smart homes, commercial spaces, healthcare, education, agriculture, outdoor and sports equipment, and entertainment.

Tuya was founded in 2014 and is based in Hangzhou, in the People's Republic of China. Its shares trade under the ticker TUYA.

Sector
Technology services
Website
tuya.com

Tuya GekkoIndex: the smart money zone

Tuya’s GekkoIndex — Gekko’s 0 to 100 smart money score — reads 58.4, in the Neutral zone, down 4.1 points over five sessions.

010058.4Neutral

Down 4.1 points over five sessions, from the Accumulation zone.

Reading for Oct 12, 2026

What followed past readings in each zone

ZoneReadings5 days10 days20 days50 days
Buying43+1.8%+4.1%+4.0%+2.6%
Accumulation235+0.6%+1.8%+5.9%+5.4%
Neutral (current zone)325−0.4%−1.7%−3.1%+2.6%
Distribution26+1.0%+5.8%+6.9%−4.4%
Selling6Too few readings yet

Average TUYA share-price change over the trading days after each daily reading in its GekkoIndex history. Across every stock Gekko tracks, Neutral readings averaged +1.1% over 20 days. Past behaviour doesn’t guarantee future results.

Neutral zone: No clear directional signal. About the five zones →

See every daily GekkoIndex reading plotted over the TUYA price, zone by zone.Track TUYA in Gekko

Is Tuya stock overvalued? Gekko Fair Value

Tuya trades 24.8% below Gekko Fair Value of $2.30, so the shares are undervalued on Gekko’s estimate.

Gekko’s own estimate of what Tuya shares are worth, recalculated every trading day.

$2.30

Gekko Fair Value, Oct 10, 2026

24.8% Undervalued

At the end of Aug 2026 the price was 29.9% below the estimate.

Gekko Fair ValueShare price, month end
$2$2Aug 2026SepOct 2026

How Gekko Fair Value works →

Gekko Fair Value on every chart, with the gap to price updating daily.Open TUYA in Gekko

Tuya insider and Congress trading

No open-market insider purchases were filed for Tuya, and no Congress trades were disclosed, in the last 90 days.

Plus buybacks, unusual options and fund positions, each dated to when it became public.

Insider buying last 90 days

No open-market insider purchases were filed for TUYA in the last 90 days.

From Form 4 filings, dated to when each was filed.

Every TUYA insider filing, plotted on the chart in Gekko.Open TUYA in Gekko

Congress trades last 90 days

No trades in TUYA were disclosed by members of Congress in the last 90 days.

From congressional disclosures, which report amounts as ranges.

Congress disclosures for TUYA, plotted on the chart in Gekko.Open TUYA in Gekko

Buybacks

Tuya has been buying back its own shares.

Bought back, quarter ended Dec 31, 2025
$24K
As a share of market cap
0.00%

From company filings.

Tuya earnings: next date and track record

Tuya reports on Nov 23, 2026, after the close (42 days away), and beat the EPS estimate in 3 of its last 8 reports.

3 of 8reports beat the EPS estimate
±4.4%average move across the report
3 of 8reports followed by a gain

Share-price move across each report

−3.0%Aug ’24−1.2%Nov ’24+4.2%Feb ’25−5.7%May ’25+4.7%Aug ’25+9.4%Nov ’25−2.0%Mar ’26−4.8%May ’26

Last earnings call, May 11, 2026 AI summary

What they said
Tuya Inc. reported solid Q1 2026 results with total revenue of approximately $80.9 million, up ~8.3% year-over-year. Management emphasized improving quarter-on-quarter momentum, healthy gross margins, and significant improvements in operating and net margins driven by revenue mix and disciplined expense management. The company continues to push its AI-driven strategy, shifting AI capabilities from platform to application layers, launching AI-powered products like Hey Tuya and AI Security Guardian, and renaming segments to reflect the AI focus (AI Application & Others; Smart Home & Robot Products). Management acknowledged external uncertainties and regional disturbances, discussed chipset and memory cost pressures, and outlined mitigation tactics including strategic inventory builds and passing some costs downstream. During Q&A, management was detailed and confident, addressing supply-chain constraints, demand recovery varying by sector, competitive positioning in agent/on-device AI, R&D usage of AI tools, and expected recovery timelines for Smart Home & Robot Products (Q2–Q3).
Guidance
Qualitative forward-looking guidance: Management expects continued recovery in downstream demand and sequential revenue momentum for the rest of 2026; specifically, they expect Smart Home & Robot Products to recover in Q2–Q3 2026. No quantitative revenue or earnings guidance was provided.
Risks flagged
External uncertainties including geopolitical and macro headwinds; chipset and memory shortages and price volatility (notably affecting cameras and devices with screens); sector-specific softness (lighting remained weak); potential margin pressure from passing costs downstream; inventory build and procurement timing risks.
ReportedEPSSurpriseRevenueSurpriseMove
May 11, 2026$0.03
est $0.03
0.0%$80.88M
est $80.67M
+0.3%−4.8%
Mar 2, 2026$0.03
est $0.03
0.0%$84.49M
est $79.53M
+6.2%−2.0%
Nov 24, 2025$0.03
est $0.03
0.0%$82.49M
est $81.62M
+1.1%+9.4%
Aug 26, 2025$0.02
est $0.03
−31.0%$80.13M
est $78.44M
+2.2%+4.7%
May 20, 2025$0.02
est $0.02
−9.4%$74.69M
est $73.05M
+2.2%−5.7%
Feb 26, 2025$0.04
est $0.03
+33.3%——+4.2%
Nov 18, 2024$0.04
est $0.03
+33.3%$81.62M
est $75.49M
+8.1%−1.2%
Aug 26, 2024$0.04
est $0.02
+100.0%$73.28M
est $70.52M
+3.9%−3.0%

“Move” is the close of the first session after the report compared with the close of the last session before it, so it reads the same whether the company reported before the open or after the close.

Tuya stock forecast and analyst price targets

Analysts’ average 12-month price target for Tuya is $3.17, +83.1% from the last close.

$3.17consensus 12-month target, +83.1% from the last close
−3.1%average 20-day move after past Neutral readings
−9.0%average move over the next 20 trading days in the last 5 years
±2.7%typical daily move, from the 14-day average range

Gekko doesn’t publish price predictions. These are analyst targets and historical base rates, which don’t guarantee future results.

Tuya seasonality: the next 20 trading days

Over the next 20 trading days from Oct 10, Tuya averaged −9.0% across the last 5 years, rising in 1 of them.

Next 20 trading days, by year

−28.3%2021−0.6%2022+9.6%2023−6.0%2024−14.3%2025

Average move and hit rate

WindowAverageYears higher
Next 5 trading days−0.5%2 of 5
Next 10 trading days−5.5%1 of 5
Next 15 trading days−6.4%1 of 5
Next 20 trading days−9.0%1 of 5
Next 30 trading days−7.3%2 of 5

For scale, TUYA’s typical 20-trading-day move in either direction is about 10.6%.

Tuya market cap and key statistics

Tuya’s market cap is $1.06B, with a P/E ratio of 15.5 and revenue of $340.8M over the last twelve months.

Valuation

Market cap
$1.06B
P/E ratio
15.5
EPS, TTM
$0.11
Gekko Fair Value
$2.30

Trading

Volume
171,339
Avg volume, 20 days
692,231
52-week high
$2.64
52-week low
$1.60
Shares outstanding
543.0M

Financials

Revenue, TTM
$340.8M
Profit margin
20.2%
Return on equity
6.7%
Quarterly earnings growth, YoY
+50.0%

Risk and income

Beta
0.52
Typical daily move
±2.7%
Typical 20-day move
±10.6%
Dividend yield
6.54%

Tuya stock news this week

Coverage of Tuya this week reads positive: 4 positive, 2 neutral and 0 negative headlines.

News sentiment positive

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Tuya stock FAQ

What is Tuya’s market cap?

Tuya’s market cap is $1.06B at the Oct 12, 2026 close of $1.73, with 543.0M shares outstanding. The shares trade on a P/E ratio of 15.5.

What is the Tuya stock forecast?

The consensus analyst 12-month price target for Tuya is $3.17, +83.1% from the last close. Gekko doesn’t publish price predictions of its own.

Is Tuya stock overvalued or undervalued?

On Gekko’s estimate Tuya is undervalued: the Oct 12, 2026 close of $1.73 is 24.8% below Gekko Fair Value of $2.30. Gekko Fair Value is recalculated every trading day, and a gap inside 5% either way counts as about fair value.

When does Tuya report earnings next?

Tuya is expected to report on Nov 23, 2026, after the market closes (42 days away). Analysts expect earnings of $0.03 per share on revenue of $95.79M. Tuya beat the earnings estimate in 3 of its last 8 reports, moving 4.4% on average across the report.

What is Tuya’s 52-week high and low?

Tuya’s 52-week high is $2.64 and its 52-week low is $1.60; it closed at $1.73 on Oct 12, 2026, −35.7% over the past year. Over the last five years the shares peaked at $9.66 on Oct 13, 2021.

Is Tuya stock a buy right now?

Gekko describes the data; it does not make buy or sell recommendations. On the swing-trade checklist, 2 of the 5 items with data read as supportive (fair value and earnings risk), 1 as mixed (gekkoindex) and 2 as headwinds (trend and seasonality). The checklist is a description of current data, not a recommendation.

How this page works

During US trading hours the price at the top of the page is a delayed quote, refreshed every 15 minutes; everything else is rebuilt after each US market close. The GekkoIndex, Gekko Fair Value and the checklist are Gekko’s own, and the Gekko Brief is written by AI from this page’s data and checked against it before it is published. How Gekko’s data works →

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