Insider buying last 90 days
No open-market insider purchases were filed for TARS in the last 90 days.
From Form 4 filings, dated to when each was filed.
Every TARS insider filing, plotted on the chart in Gekko.Open TARS in Gekko
NASDAQ: TARS
Tarsus Pharmaceuticals (TARS) Stock Analysis & Forecast
Oct 12 close
$74.40+1.24 (+1.7%)
Gekko Brief
AI summaryOct 12 closeTarsus Pharmaceuticals moves this week on continued attention to XDEMVY, the company's eye care product, and its broader push toward profitability. One piece notes analysts expect breakeven in 2027, projecting profits of US$6.9m after a US$46m trailing-twelve-month loss, with a 64% year-on-year growth rate cited. Another highlights XDEMVY as now funding the business, with 2026 net sales guidance raised to $685–$705 million, gross margins in the low 90s, and positive operating cash flow of $37 million in H1 2026. Together these describe a shift from single-product launch to a cash-generating platform.
TARS closes at $74.40, up 1.7%, sitting above both its 50-day average of $74.17 and 200-day average of $68.36, with the 50-day above the 200-day. The GekkoIndex reads 59.7, in the Neutral zone. Price sits 11.6% below Gekko Fair Value of $84.12. Over the past month the stock is down 6.2%, though it has gained 32.6% over three months and 5.7% over the past year, within a 52-week range of $53.89 to $91.53.
Earnings are due 3 November, after close, 22 days away and inside a typical 20-trading-day holding window; the prior report showed an EPS miss against estimate with a 5.7% reaction. No insider, Congress or unusual options activity appears in the recent windows. Seasonality from this point has averaged a 10.3% move over the next 20 trading days across 5 years, with gains in 3 of them, worth noting alongside the consensus target of $99.5 from 10 covering firms, all rated buy.
Written by AI from the Oct 12, 2026 close and checked automatically against the figures on this page.
Tarsus Pharmaceuticals price vs fair value
Close $74.40200-day averageGekko Fair Value $84.12
Tarsus Pharmaceuticals quick facts
- Market cap
- $3.20B
- P/E ratio
- —
- Forward P/E
- 68
- EPS, TTM
- −$1.08
- Revenue, TTM
- $606.3M
- Profit margin
- -7.7%
- Dividend yield
- —
- Beta
- 0.45
- Volume
- 1.05M avg 612,424
- 1-year return
- +5.7%
- Typical daily move
- ±3.8%
- Typical 20-day move
- ±10.3%
- 50-day average
- $74.17
- 200-day average
- $68.36
- Next earnings
- Nov 3 after close
- Shares outstanding
- 46.79M
Tarsus Pharmaceuticals swing-trade checklist
Tarsus Pharmaceuticals scores 3 supportive, 1 mixed and 1 headwind across the 5 checklist items with data.
Six things swing traders check before a 20-day hold, read from the latest data.
3 supportive1 mixed1 headwind
- Trendsupportive
Above 50 and 200-day
Close $74.40 is above the 50-day ($74.17) and 200-day ($68.36) averages, and the 50-day is above the 200-day.
See the chart - GekkoIndexmixed
59.7, Neutral
Reading 59.7 is in the Neutral zone.
See the GekkoIndex - Fair valuesupportive
11.6% below
Price is 11.6% below Gekko Fair Value (more than 5% below).
See fair value - Smart moneyno data
No data
No insider, Congress or unusual options activity in the window.
See smart money - Earnings riskheadwind
Reports in 22 days
Reports on Nov 3, 2026, 22 days away — inside a typical 20-trading-day hold.
See earnings - Seasonalitysupportive
+10.3% on average
From this point in the calendar, the next 20 trading days averaged +10.3% over 5 years, rising in 3 of them.
See seasonality
A description of current data, not a recommendation. How this page works
Tarsus Pharmaceuticals stock chart and price history
Tarsus Pharmaceuticals closed at $74.40 on Oct 12, 2026, +5.7% over the past year, inside a 52-week range of $53.89 to $91.53.
Close50-day average200-day averageVolume
Use the left and right arrow keys to read daily values.
Performance Breakdown
- 1 month
- −6.2%
- 3 months
- +32.6%
- 6 months
- +2.4%
- 1 year
- +5.7%
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About Tarsus Pharmaceuticals
Tarsus Pharmaceuticals works on medicines that are still in development, with most of its attention on problems affecting the eyes. Its furthest-along candidate, TP-03, is being tested in late-stage trials for blepharitis linked to Demodex mites and for meibomian gland disease, and this program is the one the company is most associated with.
Its pipeline also reaches beyond eye care: TP-04 is being studied for rosacea, while TP-05 is aimed at preventing Lyme disease and lowering malaria transmission within communities. These programs share a common base in lotilaner, a compound Tarsus applies across different disease areas including dermatology and infectious disease, alongside its ophthalmic work.
Tarsus was founded in 2016 and operates out of Irvine, California. Its shares trade on the NASDAQ under the ticker TARS.
- Listed
- NASDAQ
- Sector
- Health technology
- Industry
- Pharmaceuticals: major
- Website
- tarsusrx.com
Tarsus Pharmaceuticals GekkoIndex: the smart money zone
Tarsus Pharmaceuticals’s GekkoIndex — Gekko’s 0 to 100 smart money score — reads 59.7, in the Neutral zone, down 1 point over five sessions.
59.7Neutral
Down 1 point over five sessions, from the Accumulation zone.
Reading for Oct 12, 2026
What followed past readings in each zone
| Zone | Readings | 5 days | 20 days | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Buying | 36 | +2.4% | +7.9% | ||
| Accumulation | 207 | +0.8% | +3.1% | ||
| Neutral (current zone) | 368 | +0.9% | +3.7% | ||
| Distribution | 69 | +2.2% | +7.2% | ||
| Selling | 2 | Too few readings yet | |||
Average TARS share-price change over the trading days after each daily reading in its GekkoIndex history. Across every stock Gekko tracks, Neutral readings averaged +1.1% over 20 days. Past behaviour doesn’t guarantee future results.
Neutral zone: No clear directional signal. About the five zones →
See every daily GekkoIndex reading plotted over the TARS price, zone by zone.Track TARS in Gekko
Is Tarsus Pharmaceuticals stock overvalued? Gekko Fair Value
Tarsus Pharmaceuticals trades 11.6% below Gekko Fair Value of $84.12, so the shares are undervalued on Gekko’s estimate.
Gekko’s own estimate of what Tarsus Pharmaceuticals shares are worth, recalculated every trading day.
$84.12
Gekko Fair Value, Oct 10, 2026
11.6% Undervalued
At the end of Aug 2026 the price was 11.9% below the estimate.
Gekko Fair ValueShare price, month end
Gekko Fair Value on every chart, with the gap to price updating daily.Open TARS in Gekko
Tarsus Pharmaceuticals insider and Congress trading
No open-market insider purchases were filed for Tarsus Pharmaceuticals, and no Congress trades were disclosed, in the last 90 days.
Plus buybacks, unusual options and fund positions, each dated to when it became public.
Congress trades last 90 days
No trades in TARS were disclosed by members of Congress in the last 90 days.
From congressional disclosures, which report amounts as ranges.
Congress disclosures for TARS, plotted on the chart in Gekko.Open TARS in Gekko
Buybacks
Tarsus Pharmaceuticals has been buying back its own shares.
- Bought back, year ended Dec 31, 2020
- $28K
- As a share of market cap
- 0.00%
From company filings.
Tarsus Pharmaceuticals earnings: next date and track record
Tarsus Pharmaceuticals reports on Nov 3, 2026, after the close (22 days away), and beat the EPS estimate in 4 of its last 8 reports.
Next earnings report
Nov 3, 2026
Expected after the close, 22 days away
- EPS estimate
- −$1.49
- Revenue estimate
- $182.7M
4 of 8reports beat the EPS estimate
±7%average move across the report
3 of 8reports followed by a gain
Share-price move across each report
Last earnings call, Aug 6, 2026 AI summary
- What they said
- Tarsus reported a very strong Q2 2026 driven by XDEMVY, which generated approximately $173.9M in net product sales (≈69% YoY growth and ~20% QoQ). Management announced the pending acquisition of Alkeus Pharmaceuticals (gildeuretinol/ALK-001) to expand into retina (Stargardt disease) and reiterated the company’s strategy of identifying overlooked ophthalmic diseases. XDEMVY has treated over 700,000 patients and nearly $1B in cumulative sales reported to date; management projects potential >$2B annual peak sales. The company raised full-year XDEMVY net product sales guidance to $685M–$705M, maintained gross margin guidance at ~93%, and updated OpEx guidance including SG&A $545M–$565M and increased R&D to $190M–$210M (reflecting a $75M upfront for iRenix). Management emphasized commercial momentum (ECP adoption, retreatment rates in the high teens), strong DTC performance (unaided awareness ~30%, website engagement +30%), and confidence in ALK-001’s differentiating profile (structural and functional benefits, long-term tolerability). They discussed NORTHSTAR Phase III design and timelines (top-line expected H2 2029), potential for interim analysis, and estimated ALK-001 pricing in the range cited by competitors (~$350k). The tone was confident; management addressed competition and enrollment concerns directly and signaled continued investment in the pipeline while acknowledging near-term expense increases.
- Guidance
- Updated full-year XDEMVY net product sales guidance to $685M–$705M (previous $670M–$700M). Gross margins ~93%. SG&A expected $545M–$565M. R&D now expected $190M–$210M (increased due to $75M upfront for iRenix). Expect seasonal cadence with tempered summer growth and stronger Q4. ALK-001 NORTHSTAR top-line expected in second half of 2029; potential interim analysis possible. Management noted potential profitability in 2027 depending on revenue/OpEx trajectory (could be delayed a quarter or two). Sales force expansion for retina estimated ~50–75 reps.
- Risks flagged
- Forward-looking statements subject to SEC-filed risk factors; competition (e.g., tinlarebant) and potential impact on enrollment; trial and regulatory risk for ALK-001 (need for additional trials or FDA interactions); seasonality and market dynamics affecting near-term revenue cadence; increased R&D/SG&A from acquisitions could pressure near-term profitability; reliance on continued XDEMVY commercial success; pediatric population safety considerations for Stargardt therapy.
| Reported | EPS | Revenue | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 6, 2026 | −$0.43 est −$0.21 | $173.9M est $169.7M | +5.7% |
| May 6, 2026 | −$0.16 est −$0.42 | $162.1M est $149.6M | −1.7% |
| Feb 23, 2026 | −$0.20 est −$0.08 | $151.7M est $144.6M | +12.6% |
| Nov 4, 2025 | −$0.30 est −$0.35 | $118.7M est $144.6M | −2.3% |
| Aug 6, 2025 | −$0.48 est −$0.33 | $102.7M est $113.0M | +16.5% |
| May 1, 2025 | −$0.64 est −$0.63 | $78.34M est $99.11M | −8.8% |
| Feb 25, 2025 | −$0.60 est −$0.82 | $66.41M est $64.45M | −6.5% |
| Nov 13, 2024 | −$0.61 est −$1.00 | $48.12M est $43.18M | −1.9% |
“Move” is the close of the first session after the report compared with the close of the last session before it, so it reads the same whether the company reported before the open or after the close.
Tarsus Pharmaceuticals stock forecast and analyst price targets
Analysts’ average 12-month price target for Tarsus Pharmaceuticals is $99.50, +33.7% from the last close, from 10 firms rating the stock in the last 90 days.
$99.50consensus 12-month target, +33.7% from the last close
Now $74.40Avg $99.50
Low $84High $116
Each firm’s latest rating in the last 90 days: 10 firms.
Latest analyst actions
| Date | Firm | Target | vs price |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 12 | Bank of America Securities | $84 | +12.9% |
| Oct 12 | Barclays | $110 | +47.8% |
| Oct 9 | Barclays | $110 | +47.8% |
| Oct 2 | Oppenheimer | $100 | +34.4% |
| Sep 24 | Goldman Sachs | $116 | +55.9% |
+3.7%average 20-day move after past Neutral readings
+10.3%average move over the next 20 trading days in the last 5 years
±3.8%typical daily move, from the 14-day average range
Gekko doesn’t publish price predictions. These are analyst targets and historical base rates, which don’t guarantee future results.
Tarsus Pharmaceuticals seasonality: the next 20 trading days
Over the next 20 trading days from Oct 10, Tarsus Pharmaceuticals averaged +10.3% across the last 5 years, rising in 3 of them.
Next 20 trading days, by year
Average move and hit rate
| Window | Average | Years higher |
|---|---|---|
| Next 5 trading days | +3.4% | 4 of 5 |
| Next 10 trading days | +0.4% | 2 of 5 |
| Next 15 trading days | +8.1% | 3 of 5 |
| Next 20 trading days | +10.3% | 3 of 5 |
| Next 30 trading days | +12.0% | 5 of 5 |
For scale, TARS’s typical 20-trading-day move in either direction is about 10.3%.
Tarsus Pharmaceuticals market cap and key statistics
Tarsus Pharmaceuticals’s market cap is $3.20B and revenue of $606.3M over the last twelve months.
Valuation
- Market cap
- $3.20B
- Forward P/E
- 68
- EPS, TTM
- −$1.08
- Gekko Fair Value
- $84.12
Trading
- Volume
- 1.05M
- Avg volume, 20 days
- 612,424
- 52-week high
- $91.53
- 52-week low
- $53.89
- Shares outstanding
- 46.79M
Financials
- Revenue, TTM
- $606.3M
- Profit margin
- -7.7%
- Return on equity
- -13.7%
- Quarterly earnings growth, YoY
- 0.0%
Risk and income
- Beta
- 0.45
- Typical daily move
- ±3.8%
- Typical 20-day move
- ±10.3%
Tarsus Pharmaceuticals stock news this week
2 headlines about Tarsus Pharmaceuticals from the past week, newest first, each linking to the publisher.
- Tarsus Pharmaceuticals, Inc.'s (NASDAQ:TARS) Profit OutlookSimply Wall Street, Oct 9
- Tarsus Pharmaceuticals: XDEMVY Now Pays The Bills, And The Retina Deals Work Like OptionsSeeking Alpha, Oct 6
Tarsus Pharmaceuticals peers
Tarsus Pharmaceuticals’s 6 largest industry peers by market value, with today’s move, GekkoIndex zone and gap to Gekko Fair Value.
| Stock | GekkoIndex zone | vs Fair Value |
|---|---|---|
| LLYEli Lilly | Neutral | 14.7% above |
| JNJJohnson & Johnson | Neutral | 3.2% below |
| ABBVAbbVie | Distribution | 28.2% above |
| MRKMerck | Neutral | 8.0% below |
| AZNAstraZeneca | Accumulation | 41.7% below |
| PFEPfizer | Neutral | 8.0% below |
A peer links to its own page where one exists.
Tarsus Pharmaceuticals stock FAQ
What is Tarsus Pharmaceuticals’s market cap?
Tarsus Pharmaceuticals’s market cap is $3.20B at the Oct 12, 2026 close of $74.40, with 46.79M shares outstanding.
What is the Tarsus Pharmaceuticals stock forecast?
The consensus analyst 12-month price target for Tarsus Pharmaceuticals is $99.50, +33.7% from the last close. Of the 10 firms that rated the stock in the last 90 days, 10 rate it a buy, 0 a hold and 0 a sell. Gekko doesn’t publish price predictions of its own.
Is Tarsus Pharmaceuticals stock overvalued or undervalued?
On Gekko’s estimate Tarsus Pharmaceuticals is undervalued: the Oct 12, 2026 close of $74.40 is 11.6% below Gekko Fair Value of $84.12. Gekko Fair Value is recalculated every trading day, and a gap inside 5% either way counts as about fair value.
When does Tarsus Pharmaceuticals report earnings next?
Tarsus Pharmaceuticals is expected to report on Nov 3, 2026, after the market closes (22 days away). Analysts expect earnings of −$1.49 per share on revenue of $182.7M. Tarsus Pharmaceuticals beat the earnings estimate in 4 of its last 8 reports, moving 7% on average across the report.
What is Tarsus Pharmaceuticals’s 52-week high and low?
Tarsus Pharmaceuticals’s 52-week high is $91.53 and its 52-week low is $53.89; it closed at $74.40 on Oct 12, 2026, +5.7% over the past year.
Is Tarsus Pharmaceuticals stock a buy right now?
Gekko describes the data; it does not make buy or sell recommendations. On the swing-trade checklist, 3 of the 5 items with data read as supportive (trend, fair value and seasonality), 1 as mixed (gekkoindex) and 1 as a headwind (earnings risk). The checklist is a description of current data, not a recommendation.
How this page works
During US trading hours the price at the top of the page is a delayed quote, refreshed every 15 minutes; everything else is rebuilt after each US market close. The GekkoIndex, Gekko Fair Value and the checklist are Gekko’s own, and the Gekko Brief is written by AI from this page’s data and checked against it before it is published. How Gekko’s data works →
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