Insider buying last 90 days
No open-market insider purchases were filed for SHOP in the last 90 days.
From Form 4 filings, dated to when each was filed.
Every SHOP insider filing, plotted on the chart in Gekko.Open SHOP in Gekko
NASDAQ: SHOP
Shopify (SHOP) Stock Analysis & Forecast
$128.50−0.10 (−0.1%)
Close on Sep 18, 2026. Page updated Sep 19, 9:15 pm ET.
Gekko Brief
AI summaryShopify closes at $128.50, down 0.1%, sitting between its 50-day average of $136.08 and 200-day average of $130.35, with monthly return at -12.3% and three-month return at 18.1%. The GekkoIndex reads 63.5, placing the stock in the Accumulation zone, while Gekko Fair Value stands at $134.85, leaving price 4.7% below that mark.
Recent coverage centers on Shopify's pullback, with the stock described as down roughly 13% over a month amid growth concerns and valuation questions, set against continued emphasis on AI commerce, payments and enterprise expansion. Related threads touch on Shopify's role in AI-driven shopping flows, including a Meta AI agent capable of placing orders without shoppers visiting merchant sites directly, and commentary from CEO Tobias Lütke on internal AI-generated content he calls "slop grenades." Separately, Shopify President Harley Finkelstein joined StackAdapt as a strategic advisor, and longer-term retrospectives note revenue growth from about $389 million in 2016 to $11.6 billion in 2025, with platform GMV reaching $378 billion last year.
Looking ahead, the next earnings date falls on 3 November, 44 days out and beyond a typical 20-trading-day hold; the prior report on 5 August showed EPS of $0.32 against an estimate of $0.28, with a 19.6% reaction. Analyst consensus carries a price target of $172.77, implying 34.5% upside from current levels. Seasonally, the next 20 trading days have averaged -1.8% over five years, rising in three of them, a pattern worth noting alongside the still-unresolved gap to Gekko Fair Value.
Written by AI and checked automatically against the figures on this page. Generated Sep 20, 2026 from the data above.
Price vs fair value
Close $128.50200-day averageGekko Fair Value $134.85
Key stats
- Market cap
- $166.7B
- P/E ratio
- 86.9
- Forward P/E
- 53.5
- EPS, TTM
- $1.48
- Revenue, TTM
- $13.27B
- Profit margin
- 14.5%
- Dividend yield
- —
- Beta
- 2.62
- Volume
- 10.49M avg 7.77M
- 1-year return
- −13.1%
- Typical daily move
- ±4.7%
- Typical 20-day move
- ±11.1%
- 50-day average
- $136.08
- 200-day average
- $130.35
- Next earnings
- Nov 3 before open
- Shares outstanding
- 1.22B
Shopify swing-trade checklist
Shopify scores 2 supportive, 3 mixed and 0 headwinds across the 5 checklist items with data.
Six things swing traders check before a 20-day hold, read from the latest data.
2 supportive3 mixed0 headwinds
- Trendmixed
Averages disagree
Close $128.50 sits between the 50-day ($136.08) and 200-day ($130.35) averages, or the averages disagree.
See the chart - GekkoIndexsupportive
63.5, Accumulation
Reading 63.5 is in the Accumulation zone.
See the GekkoIndex - Fair valuemixed
4.7% below
Price is within 5% of Gekko Fair Value (4.7% below).
See fair value - Smart moneyno data
No data
No insider, Congress or unusual options activity in the window.
See smart money - Earnings risksupportive
Reports in 44 days
Next report Nov 3, 2026, 44 days away — outside a typical 20-trading-day hold.
See earnings - Seasonalitymixed
−1.8% on average
From this point in the calendar, the next 20 trading days averaged −1.8% over 5 years, rising in 3 of them.
See seasonality
A description of current data, not a recommendation. How this page works
Shopify stock chart and price history
Shopify closed at $128.50 on Sep 18, 2026, −13.1% over the past year, inside a 52-week range of $94.00 to $182.19.
Close50-day average200-day averageVolume
Use the left and right arrow keys to read daily values.
Performance Breakdown
- 1 month
- −12.3%
- 3 months
- +18.1%
- 6 months
- +5.0%
- 1 year
- −13.1%
The full SHOP chart adds GekkoIndex, insider, options, Congress and hedge fund markers, plus TrendCandles™.Open SHOP in Gekko
Follow Shopify through every session
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About Shopify
Shopify builds software that lets businesses set up and run stores across many different channels. Merchants use its platform to list products, organize catalogs, market their goods and complete sales, whether through websites, mobile apps, physical shops, temporary pop-ups, social media, buy buttons or third-party marketplaces. It is known for giving companies a single system to sell wherever their customers are.
Beyond the selling tools themselves, the platform handles much of the operational work behind a store, including inventory and order tracking, payment processing, shipping and fulfillment, customer outreach, sourcing, reporting and financial management. Shopify also sells add-ons such as website themes, apps and domain registration, and it helps merchants accept payments, manage logistics and access working capital. Its customers are businesses of varying sizes across regions including Canada, the United States, Europe, the Middle East, Africa, Asia Pacific and Latin America.
The company began in 2004 as Jaded Pixel Technologies Inc. and took the name Shopify Inc. in November 2011. It is headquartered in Ottawa, Canada, and its shares are listed on the NASDAQ under the ticker SHOP.
- Listed
- NASDAQ
- Sector
- Commercial services
- Industry
- Miscellaneous commercial services
- Website
- shopify.com
Shopify GekkoIndex: the smart money zone
Shopify’s GekkoIndex — Gekko’s 0 to 100 smart money score — reads 63.5, in the Accumulation zone, down 2.1 points over five sessions.
63.5Accumulation
Down 2.1 points over five sessions.
Reading for Sep 18, 2026
What followed past readings in each zone
| Zone | Readings | 5 days | 20 days | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Buying | 41 | +3.8% | +4.8% | ||
| Accumulation (current zone) | 163 | +0.5% | +4.1% | ||
| Neutral | 431 | +0.7% | +2.2% | ||
| Distribution | 23 | −1.4% | −1.0% | ||
| Selling | 4 | Too few readings yet | |||
Average SHOP share-price change over the trading days after each daily reading in its GekkoIndex history. Across every stock Gekko tracks, Accumulation readings averaged +2.3% over 20 days. Past behaviour doesn’t guarantee future results.
Accumulation zone: Institutional interest building. About the five zones →
See every daily GekkoIndex reading plotted over the SHOP price, zone by zone.Track SHOP in Gekko
Is Shopify stock overvalued? Gekko Fair Value
Shopify trades 4.7% below Gekko Fair Value of $134.85, so the shares are about fair value on Gekko’s estimate.
Gekko’s own estimate of what Shopify shares are worth, recalculated every trading day.
$134.85
Gekko Fair Value, Sep 19, 2026
4.7% below fair value · About fair value
Gekko Fair Value on every chart, with the gap to price updating daily.Open SHOP in Gekko
Shopify insider and Congress trading
No open-market insider purchases were filed for Shopify, and no Congress trades were disclosed, in the last 90 days.
Plus buybacks, unusual options and fund positions, each dated to when it became public.
Congress trades last 90 days
No trades in SHOP were disclosed by members of Congress in the last 90 days.
From congressional disclosures, which report amounts as ranges.
Congress disclosures for SHOP, plotted on the chart in Gekko.Open SHOP in Gekko
Buybacks
Shopify has been buying back its own shares.
- Latest authorization
- $3.00B, Jun 2, 2026
- Bought back, quarter ended Jun 30, 2026
- $1.42B
- As a share of market cap
- 0.85%
From company filings.
Hedge funds and billionaires quarter ended Jun 30
3of the funds Gekko tracks hold SHOP.
1added1opened1trimmed3sold out
Which funds are on each side, name by name.Unlock in Gekko
Shopify earnings: next date and track record
Shopify reports on Nov 3, 2026, before the open (44 days away), and beat the EPS estimate in 4 of its last 8 reports.
Next earnings report
Nov 3, 2026
Expected before the open, 44 days away
- EPS estimate
- $0.44
- Revenue estimate
- $3.73B
4 of 8reports beat the EPS estimate
±13.3%average move across the report
4 of 8reports followed by a gain
Share-price move across each report
Last earnings call, Aug 5, 2026 AI summary
- What they said
- Shopify reported an exceptional Q2 2026 with broad-based, durable growth across metrics driven by strong GMV and AI-enabled product momentum. GMV grew 32% to $116 billion, revenue grew 34% to $3.6 billion, and free cash flow margin was ~18%. Management emphasized cohort dynamics, high retention for larger merchants, accelerating enterprise migrations, and substantial product traction for AI initiatives (Sidekick, Catalog, agentic commerce) and the Shop app. They highlighted composable/headless architecture, partnerships (e.g., Vercel), and operational improvements (distilled models, model selection) as competitive advantages. Management reiterated their monetization model: earning on merchant sales without adding new fees, and suggested AI-driven discovery disproportionately benefits small independent merchants. Q&A reinforced strong adoption metrics (Sidekick conversations, daily active growth, Catalog and agentic conversion lifts) and asked about margin sustainability, TAM serviceability, and enterprise onboarding. No specific numeric guidance for upcoming quarters was disclosed on the call; management pointed to Q3 guidance in their materials and emphasized operating leverage to offset any gross margin pressure.
- Guidance
- Management referenced Q3 guidance and asked investors to focus on the guidance provided in their press release, but the call did not disclose any new specific numeric guidance for revenue, EPS, or margin forecasts.
- Risks flagged
- Forward-looking statements and typical disclosure around risks and uncertainties (referenced at the start); potential gross margin pressure (Jeff noted gross margin watch but offset by OpEx leverage); agentic commerce is still early and small relative to total GMV; not all business models or marketplaces may be a fit for full Shopify migration; competitive and macro risks implicit in the operating environment.
| Reported | EPS | Revenue | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 5, 2026 | $0.32 est $0.28 | $3.54B est $3.40B | +19.6% |
| May 5, 2026 | −$0.45 est $0.33 | $3.11B est $3.06B | −17.3% |
| Feb 11, 2026 | $0.48 est $0.50 | $3.64B est $3.60B | −13.0% |
| Nov 4, 2025 | $0.34 est $0.34 | $2.84B est $2.75B | −5.8% |
| Aug 6, 2025 | $0.35 est $0.29 | $2.68B est $2.58B | +19.0% |
| May 8, 2025 | $0.25 est $0.26 | $2.36B est $2.53B | −2.9% |
| Feb 11, 2025 | $0.44 est $0.43 | $2.81B est $2.70B | +0.5% |
| Nov 12, 2024 | $0.64 est $0.18 | $2.16B est $2.15B | +27.9% |
“Move” is the close of the first session after the report compared with the close of the last session before it, so it reads the same whether the company reported before the open or after the close.
Shopify stock forecast and analyst price targets
Analysts’ average 12-month price target for Shopify is $172.77, +34.5% from the last close.
$172.77consensus 12-month target, +34.5% from the last close
+4.1%average 20-day move after past Accumulation readings
−1.8%average move over the next 20 trading days in the last 5 years
±4.7%typical daily move, from the 14-day average range
Gekko doesn’t publish price predictions. These are analyst targets and historical base rates, which don’t guarantee future results.
Shopify seasonality: the next 20 trading days
Over the next 20 trading days from Sep 19, Shopify averaged −1.8% across the last 5 years, rising in 3 of them.
Next 20 trading days, by year
Average move and hit rate
| Window | Average | Years higher |
|---|---|---|
| Next 5 trading days | −5.7% | 2 of 5 |
| Next 10 trading days | −5.1% | 2 of 5 |
| Next 15 trading days | −4.3% | 1 of 5 |
| Next 20 trading days | −1.8% | 3 of 5 |
| Next 30 trading days | +2.2% | 4 of 5 |
For scale, SHOP’s typical 20-trading-day move in either direction is about 11.1%.
Shopify market cap and key statistics
Shopify’s market cap is $166.7B, with a P/E ratio of 86.9 and revenue of $13.27B over the last twelve months.
Valuation
- Market cap
- $166.7B
- P/E ratio
- 86.9
- Forward P/E
- 53.5
- EPS, TTM
- $1.48
- Gekko Fair Value
- $134.85
Trading
- Volume
- 10.49M
- Avg volume, 20 days
- 7.77M
- 52-week high
- $182.19
- 52-week low
- $94.00
- Shares outstanding
- 1.22B
Financials
- Revenue, TTM
- $13.27B
- Profit margin
- 14.5%
- Return on equity
- 15.5%
- Quarterly earnings growth, YoY
- +68.1%
Risk and income
- Beta
- 2.62
- Typical daily move
- ±4.7%
- Typical 20-day move
- ±11.1%
Shopify stock news this week
6 headlines about Shopify from the past week, newest first, each linking to the publisher.
- A $10,000 Stake in Shopify Is Worth About $311,000 a Decade Later. The Business Grew Almost as Much as the Stock.The Motley Fool, Sep 19
- Chris Wang on PLTR, META, SHOP Stock Picks Amid AI Safety ConcernsSchwab Network, Sep 17
- Shopify CEO says employees' 'slop grenades' are making more work for everyone elseBusiness Insider, Sep 17
- Shopify Plunges 13% in a Month: Buy, Sell or Hold the Stock?Zacks Investment Research, Sep 16
- Shopify Merchants Could Get AI Orders Without Shoppers Visiting Their Websites24/7 Wall Street, Sep 16
- Down 25%, Is Shopify Stock a Better Buy than SpaceX and the "Magnificent Seven" Stocks in September?The Motley Fool, Sep 16
Shopify peers
Shopify’s 6 largest industry peers by market value, with today’s move, GekkoIndex zone and gap to Gekko Fair Value.
| Stock | GekkoIndex zone | vs Fair Value |
|---|---|---|
| CTASCintas | Accumulation | 8.7% above |
| XYZBlock | Accumulation | 6.7% above |
| PYPLPayPal | Accumulation | 7.7% below |
| CPAYCorpay | Accumulation | 18.3% below |
| FISVFiserv | Accumulation | 39.9% below |
| GPNGlobal Payments | Accumulation | 24.4% below |
A peer links to its own page where one exists.
Shopify stock FAQ
What is Shopify’s market cap?
Shopify’s market cap is $166.7B at the Sep 18, 2026 close of $128.50, with 1.22B shares outstanding. The shares trade on a P/E ratio of 86.9.
What is the Shopify stock forecast?
The consensus analyst 12-month price target for Shopify is $172.77, +34.5% from the last close. Gekko doesn’t publish price predictions of its own.
Is Shopify stock overvalued or undervalued?
On Gekko’s estimate Shopify is about fair value: the Sep 18, 2026 close of $128.50 is 4.7% below Gekko Fair Value of $134.85. Gekko Fair Value is recalculated every trading day, and a gap inside 5% either way counts as about fair value.
When does Shopify report earnings next?
Shopify is expected to report on Nov 3, 2026, before the market opens (44 days away). Analysts expect earnings of $0.44 per share on revenue of $3.73B. Shopify beat the earnings estimate in 4 of its last 8 reports, moving 13.3% on average across the report.
What is Shopify’s 52-week high and low?
Shopify’s 52-week high is $182.19 and its 52-week low is $94.00; it closed at $128.50 on Sep 18, 2026, −13.1% over the past year.
Is Shopify stock a buy right now?
Gekko describes the data; it does not make buy or sell recommendations. On the swing-trade checklist, 2 of the 5 items with data read as supportive (gekkoindex and earnings risk), 3 as mixed (trend, fair value and seasonality). The checklist is a description of current data, not a recommendation.
How this page works
Prices and signals update after every US market close; the GekkoIndex, Gekko Fair Value and the checklist are Gekko’s own, and the Gekko Brief is written by AI from this page’s data and checked against it before it is published. How Gekko’s data works →
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