NASDAQ: PYPL

PayPal (PYPL) Stock Analysis & Forecast

PayPal Holdings, Inc. Commercial services sector, miscellaneous commercial services industry. Market cap $44.83B.

$52.41−0.53 (−1.0%)

Close on Sep 18, 2026. Page updated Sep 19, 9:19 pm ET.

Gekko Brief

AI summary

PayPal trades at $52.41, down 1% on the day and sitting between its 50-day average of $56.55 and 200-day average of $50.67, a mixed trend signal. The GekkoIndex reads 65, placing the stock in the Accumulation zone, while the price remains 7.7% below Gekko Fair Value of $56.76. Over the past year the stock is down 23.6%, though the three-month return stands at 23.3%.

Coverage this week centers on legal and valuation scrutiny alongside product expansion. Kahn Swick & Foti has opened an investigation into PayPal's officers and directors tied to shareholder lawsuits, while separately analysts trimmed a fair value estimate from $59.16 to $57.07 citing mixed views following Q2 earnings and uncertainty around potential deals. On the product side, PayPal World is described as gaining traction in boosting transaction activity and engagement, and Venmo has expanded its NIL partnerships targeting college audiences. Corient Private Wealth LP reduced its PayPal stake by 53.3% in the second quarter, selling 245,147 shares.

Looking to the next 20 trading days, earnings are scheduled for 27 October, 37 days out, placing the report outside a typical holding window. In the last 90 days, Congress recorded 1 buy and 0 sells, and in the last 30 days there were 2 unusual options signals, with call premium of $3,439,933 against put premium of $1,493,504. Seasonally, this stretch of the calendar has averaged a -1.9% return over 5 years, rising in only 2 of them, a headwind worth noting alongside the current gap to Gekko Fair Value.

Written by AI and checked automatically against the figures on this page. Generated Sep 20, 2026 from the data above.

Price vs fair value

Close $52.41200-day averageGekko Fair Value $56.76

Key stats

Market cap
$44.83B
P/E ratio
10
Forward P/E
9.1
EPS, TTM
$5.32
Revenue, TTM
$34.13B
Profit margin
14.4%
Dividend yield
1.06%
Beta
1.29
Volume
28.90M avg 13.07M
1-year return
−23.6%
Typical daily move
±3%
Typical 20-day move
±7.4%
50-day average
$56.55
200-day average
$50.67
Next earnings
Oct 27 before open
Shares outstanding
855.5M
52-week range
$38.46$79.22

PayPal swing-trade checklist

PayPal scores 4 supportive, 1 mixed and 1 headwind across the 6 checklist items with data.

Six things swing traders check before a 20-day hold, read from the latest data.

4 supportive1 mixed1 headwind

  • Trendmixed

    Averages disagree

    Close $52.41 sits between the 50-day ($56.55) and 200-day ($50.67) averages, or the averages disagree.

    See the chart
  • GekkoIndexsupportive

    65, Accumulation

    Reading 65 is in the Accumulation zone.

    See the GekkoIndex
  • Fair valuesupportive

    7.7% below

    Price is 7.7% below Gekko Fair Value (more than 5% below).

    See fair value
  • Smart moneysupportive

    Leans bullish

    Last 90 days: Congress 1 buy / 0 sales. Last 30 days: 2 unusual options signals.

    See smart money
  • Earnings risksupportive

    Reports in 37 days

    Next report Oct 27, 2026, 37 days away — outside a typical 20-trading-day hold.

    See earnings
  • Seasonalityheadwind

    −1.9% on average

    From this point in the calendar, the next 20 trading days averaged −1.9% over 5 years, rising in 2 of them.

    See seasonality

A description of current data, not a recommendation. How this page works

PayPal stock chart and price history

PayPal closed at $52.41 on Sep 18, 2026, −23.6% over the past year, inside a 52-week range of $38.46 to $79.22.

Close50-day average200-day averageVolume

Use the left and right arrow keys to read daily values.

Performance Breakdown

1 month
−14.4%
3 months
+23.3%
6 months
+18.6%
1 year
−23.6%
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About PayPal

PayPal builds the digital infrastructure that lets businesses and everyday users move money online. Its services reach consumers and merchants worldwide, letting them send and receive payments across roughly 200 markets and handle around 100 currencies. The company is widely recognized for the PayPal brand itself, alongside other services it operates under one roof.

Its offerings extend well beyond the core PayPal product, covering credit through PayPal Credit, merchant payment processing via Braintree, peer-to-peer transfers through Venmo, international money transfers with Xoom, point-of-sale tools from Zettle, payout services under Hyperwallet, shopping tools through Honey, and installment payments via Paidy. Customers can withdraw funds to bank accounts in 56 currencies and hold balances in 25 currencies within their accounts, reflecting a business built around enabling transactions rather than a single product line.

PayPal was founded in 1998 and is headquartered in San Jose, California. Its shares are listed on the NASDAQ under the ticker PYPL.

Listed
NASDAQ
Sector
Commercial services
Industry
Miscellaneous commercial services
Website
paypal.com

PayPal GekkoIndex: the smart money zone

PayPal’s GekkoIndex — Gekko’s 0 to 100 smart money score — reads 65, in the Accumulation zone, up 1.7 points over five sessions.

010065Accumulation

Up 1.7 points over five sessions.

Reading for Sep 18, 2026

What followed past readings in each zone

ZoneReadings5 days10 days20 days50 days
Buying46−1.0%0.0%+0.6%+8.7%
Accumulation (current zone)2230.0%−0.9%−0.3%+2.2%
Neutral360+0.3%+0.6%+0.7%−1.5%
Distribution24−0.9%+0.5%+2.2%+0.5%
Selling9Too few readings yet

Average PYPL share-price change over the trading days after each daily reading in its GekkoIndex history. Across every stock Gekko tracks, Accumulation readings averaged +2.3% over 20 days. Past behaviour doesn’t guarantee future results.

Accumulation zone: Institutional interest building. About the five zones →

See every daily GekkoIndex reading plotted over the PYPL price, zone by zone.Track PYPL in Gekko

Is PayPal stock overvalued? Gekko Fair Value

PayPal trades 7.7% below Gekko Fair Value of $56.76, so the shares are undervalued on Gekko’s estimate.

Gekko’s own estimate of what PayPal shares are worth, recalculated every trading day.

$56.76

Gekko Fair Value, Sep 19, 2026

7.7% Undervalued

How Gekko Fair Value works →

Gekko Fair Value on every chart, with the gap to price updating daily.Open PYPL in Gekko

PayPal insider and Congress trading

No open-market insider purchases were filed for PayPal, and members of Congress disclosed 1 purchase and 0 sales, in the last 90 days.

Plus buybacks, unusual options and fund positions, each dated to when it became public.

Insider buying last 90 days

No open-market insider purchases were filed for PYPL in the last 90 days.

From Form 4 filings, dated to when each was filed.

Every PYPL insider filing, plotted on the chart in Gekko.Open PYPL in Gekko

Congress trades last 90 days

1trade disclosed: 1 purchase and 0 sales.

MemberTypeAmountDisclosed
John Boozman
Senate, AR, purchase
Purchase$1,001 - $15,000Aug 17
traded Jul 30

From congressional disclosures, which report amounts as ranges.

Buybacks

PayPal has been buying back its own shares.

Bought back, quarter ended Jun 30, 2026
$1.55B
As a share of market cap
3.46%
Trailing four quarters
$6.05B

From company filings.

Unusual options activity last 30 days

2signals, 70% of the flagged premium in calls.

Latest: Bullish flow on Aug 29, $3.31M in unusual premium.

Hedge funds and billionaires quarter ended Jun 30

3of the funds Gekko tracks hold PYPL.

1added1opened1trimmed0sold out
Every signal with its contract, strike and premium, and which funds are on each side.Unlock in Gekko

PayPal earnings: next date and track record

PayPal reports on Oct 27, 2026, before the open (37 days away), and beat the EPS estimate in 7 of its last 8 reports.

7 of 8reports beat the EPS estimate
±8.1%average move across the report
2 of 8reports followed by a gain

Share-price move across each report

−6.4%Oct ’24−11.5%Feb ’25+1.4%Apr ’25−10.9%Jul ’25−0.8%Oct ’25−21.6%Feb ’26−8.2%May ’26+4.1%Jul ’26

Last earnings call, Jul 28, 2026 AI summary

What they said
PayPal's Q2 2026 earnings call highlighted progress in a multiyear transformation focused on simplifying the organization, investing in financial services, Venmo, and Braintree, and modernizing technology and risk systems. Management reported revenue growth of 5% (3% currency-neutral), TPV growth accelerating to 9% CN, branded checkout stabilizing at ~2% CN, Venmo and Braintree growing mid-teens, transaction margin dollars (TM$) excluding interest on customer balances up 3%, and non-GAAP EPS of $1.38 (down 1% YoY) which exceeded guidance. Management emphasized cost savings ($1.5B+ program), reinvesting most savings into growth areas (technology, risk, product, marketing), and raised full-year guidance for TM$ and non-GAAP EPS and for online branded checkout to low single-digits. They highlighted BNPL momentum (+26% growth, driven by geographic expansion, partnerships, and merchant integrations), strong free cash flow, and share repurchase/dividend returns. Executives emphasized strategic clarity, metrics to track (ARPA, attach rates, customer lifetime value), and timelines (multiyear transformation with near-term focus on fundamentals and 12–18 months for later phases). Management noted market stabilization, incremental improvement in Europe, and expectations of branded checkout ~2% in Q3. Risk comments were limited to standard uncertainties, competitive intensity in Europe, and macro/regulatory uncertainties implied; management declined to comment on M&A rumors but said the Board is open to objectively evaluate options. Overall tone: cautiously optimistic with measured confidence; management raised guidance and expressed clear plans, but acknowledged normalization in some markets and competitive headwinds.
Guidance
Management raised full-year guidance for transaction margin dollars and non-GAAP EPS; raised expectation for online branded checkout growth to low single-digits for the year; expecting branded checkout growth at ~2% in Q3/second half; not planning further rate changes impact in guidance and not expecting additional rate cuts this year. (No specific numeric full-year targets provided in transcript excerpts.)
Risks flagged
Competitive intensity in Europe; normalization of high growth in some markets; macro and interest rate environment uncertainty (rate cuts did not occur as previously assumed); execution risk in realizing savings and reinvestment ROI; standard forward-looking statement uncertainties; potential market speculation / change in control (M&A) though company does not comment on specifics.
ReportedEPSSurpriseRevenueSurpriseMove
Jul 28, 2026$1.38
est $1.28
+7.8%$8.68B
est $8.47B
+2.5%+4.1%
May 5, 2026$1.34
est $1.27
+5.5%$8.35B
est $8.05B
+3.8%−8.2%
Feb 3, 2026$1.23
est $1.29
−4.7%$8.68B
est $8.79B
−1.3%−21.6%
Oct 28, 2025$1.34
est $1.20
+11.7%$8.42B
est $8.24B
+2.2%−0.8%
Jul 29, 2025$1.40
est $1.30
+7.7%$8.29B
est $8.08B
+2.5%−10.9%
Apr 29, 2025$1.33
est $1.16
+14.7%$7.79B
est $7.85B
−0.7%+1.4%
Feb 4, 2025$1.19
est $1.11
+7.2%$8.37B
est $8.26B
+1.3%−11.5%
Oct 29, 2024$1.20
est $1.07
+12.1%$7.85B
est $7.89B
−0.5%−6.4%

“Move” is the close of the first session after the report compared with the close of the last session before it, so it reads the same whether the company reported before the open or after the close.

PayPal stock forecast and analyst price targets

Analysts’ average 12-month price target for PayPal is $57.07, +8.9% from the last close, from 29 firms rating the stock in the last 90 days.

$57.07consensus 12-month target, +8.9% from the last close
Low $45High $70
Buy4
Hold23
Sell2

Each firm’s latest rating in the last 90 days: 29 firms.

Latest analyst actions

DateFirmRatingTargetvs price
Sep 4UBSHold, maintained$61+16.4%
Sep 1Mizuho SecuritiesHold, reiterated$51−2.7%
Aug 31Truist FinancialHold, reiterated$53+1.1%
Aug 31Clear StreetHold, reiterated$55+4.9%
Aug 31Clear StreetHold, maintained$55+4.9%
−0.3%average 20-day move after past Accumulation readings
−1.9%average move over the next 20 trading days in the last 5 years
±3%typical daily move, from the 14-day average range

Gekko doesn’t publish price predictions. These are analyst targets and historical base rates, which don’t guarantee future results.

PayPal seasonality: the next 20 trading days

Over the next 20 trading days from Sep 19, PayPal averaged −1.9% across the last 5 years, rising in 2 of them.

Next 20 trading days, by year

+0.2%2021−10.9%2022−8.1%2023+2.9%2024−1.2%2025

Average move and hit rate

WindowAverageYears higher
Next 5 trading days−2.2%2 of 5
Next 10 trading days−2.8%2 of 5
Next 15 trading days−1.9%2 of 5
Next 20 trading days−1.9%2 of 5
Next 30 trading days−6.9%2 of 5

For scale, PYPL’s typical 20-trading-day move in either direction is about 7.4%.

PayPal market cap and key statistics

PayPal’s market cap is $44.83B, with a P/E ratio of 10 and revenue of $34.13B over the last twelve months.

Valuation

Market cap
$44.83B
P/E ratio
10
Forward P/E
9.1
EPS, TTM
$5.32
Gekko Fair Value
$56.76

Trading

Volume
28.90M
Avg volume, 20 days
13.07M
52-week high
$79.22
52-week low
$38.46
Shares outstanding
855.5M

Financials

Revenue, TTM
$34.13B
Profit margin
14.4%
Return on equity
24.5%
Quarterly earnings growth, YoY
−3.1%

Risk and income

Beta
1.29
Typical daily move
±3%
Typical 20-day move
±7.4%
Dividend yield
1.06%

PayPal peers

PayPal’s 6 largest industry peers by market value, with today’s move, GekkoIndex zone and gap to Gekko Fair Value.

StockTodayGekkoIndex zonevs Fair Value
SHOPShopify−0.2%Accumulation4.7% below
CTASCintas−0.2%Accumulation8.7% above
XYZBlock−0.3%Accumulation6.7% above
CPAYCorpay−1.3%Accumulation18.3% below
FISVFiserv−4.4%Accumulation39.9% below
GPNGlobal Payments+0.1%Accumulation24.4% below

A peer links to its own page where one exists.

In the Buying zone today

Reporting earnings this week

Popular on Gekko

PayPal stock FAQ

What is PayPal’s market cap?

PayPal’s market cap is $44.83B at the Sep 18, 2026 close of $52.41, with 855.5M shares outstanding. The shares trade on a P/E ratio of 10.

What is the PayPal stock forecast?

The consensus analyst 12-month price target for PayPal is $57.07, +8.9% from the last close. Of the 29 firms that rated the stock in the last 90 days, 4 rate it a buy, 23 a hold and 2 a sell. Gekko doesn’t publish price predictions of its own.

Is PayPal stock overvalued or undervalued?

On Gekko’s estimate PayPal is undervalued: the Sep 18, 2026 close of $52.41 is 7.7% below Gekko Fair Value of $56.76. Gekko Fair Value is recalculated every trading day, and a gap inside 5% either way counts as about fair value.

When does PayPal report earnings next?

PayPal is expected to report on Oct 27, 2026, before the market opens (37 days away). Analysts expect earnings of $1.32 per share on revenue of $8.73B. PayPal beat the earnings estimate in 7 of its last 8 reports, moving 8.1% on average across the report.

What is PayPal’s 52-week high and low?

PayPal’s 52-week high is $79.22 and its 52-week low is $38.46; it closed at $52.41 on Sep 18, 2026, −23.6% over the past year.

Is PayPal stock a buy right now?

Gekko describes the data; it does not make buy or sell recommendations. On the swing-trade checklist, 4 of the 6 items with data read as supportive (gekkoindex, fair value, smart money and earnings risk), 1 as mixed (trend) and 1 as a headwind (seasonality). The checklist is a description of current data, not a recommendation.

Is there unusual options activity in PayPal?

Gekko flagged 2 unusual options signals in PayPal over the last 30 days, with $3.44M of flagged premium in calls and $1.49M in puts. The latest, bullish flow, was on Aug 29, 2026 with $3.31M in unusual premium. The signal-by-signal table is in Gekko.

How this page works

Prices and signals update after every US market close; the GekkoIndex, Gekko Fair Value and the checklist are Gekko’s own, and the Gekko Brief is written by AI from this page’s data and checked against it before it is published. How Gekko’s data works →

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