Rithm Capital (RITM) Stock Analysis & Forecast

Sep 28 close

$9.08−0.05 (−0.5%)

Gekko Brief

AI summary

This week's news for Rithm Capital centers on a credit rating upgrade, with S&P Global raising the company's rating to 'B+' from 'B' and maintaining a stable outlook, citing greater diversification and stable Newrez earnings. Other coverage includes a mention of Rithm Capital among a curated list of under-the-radar equities, and an article discussing the company's callable preferred stock series, noting that recent FOMC rate hikes have increased Rithm's cost of capital and raised the likelihood of calls for Series A and B.

RITM closed at $9.08, down 0.5%, sitting below both its 50-day average of $9.82 and its 200-day average of $9.99, with the 50-day below the 200-day. The stock's 52-week range spans $8.43 to $12.15, and returns have been negative across the 1-month (-9.3%), 3-month (-3.6%), 6-month (-0.7%) and 1-year (-21.7%) periods. The GekkoIndex reads 73.5, placing it in the Buying zone, up 5.3 over five days. Gekko Fair Value stands at $15.65, putting the current price 42% below that level.

The next earnings report is scheduled for 29 October 2026, before the open, 30 days away and outside a typical 20-trading-day holding window. No insider, Congress, or unusual options activity appears in the current window. Seasonality over the past 5 years shows an average 20-day return of 0.1% from this point in the calendar, rising in 2 of those years. Analyst consensus from 6 firms is unanimously bullish, with a consensus target of $13.15.

Written by AI and checked automatically against the figures on this page. Generated Sep 29, 2026 from the data above.

Rithm Capital price vs fair value

▲$15.65$9.08Sep ’25Mar ’26Sep ’26
Close $9.08200-day averageGekko Fair Value $15.65

Rithm Capital quick facts

Market cap
$5.07B
P/E ratio
15.2
Forward P/E
4.1
EPS, TTM
$0.60
Revenue, TTM
$4.32B
Profit margin
10.8%
Dividend yield
11.00%
Beta
1.11
Volume
8.62M avg 5.47M
1-year return
−21.7%
Typical daily move
±2.4%
Typical 20-day move
±4.2%
50-day average
$9.82
200-day average
$9.99
Next earnings
Oct 29 before open
Shares outstanding
558.4M
52-week range
$8.43$12.15

Rithm Capital swing-trade checklist

Rithm Capital scores 3 supportive, 1 mixed and 1 headwind across the 5 checklist items with data.

Six things swing traders check before a 20-day hold, read from the latest data.

3 supportive1 mixed1 headwind

  • Trendheadwind

    Below 50 and 200-day

    Close $9.08 is below the 50-day ($9.82) and 200-day ($9.99) averages, and the 50-day is below the 200-day.

    See the chart
  • GekkoIndexsupportive

    73.5, Buying

    Reading 73.5 is in the Buying zone.

    See the GekkoIndex
  • Fair valuesupportive

    42.0% below

    Price is 42% below Gekko Fair Value (more than 5% below).

    See fair value
  • Smart moneyno data

    No data

    No insider, Congress or unusual options activity in the window.

    See smart money
  • Earnings risksupportive

    Reports in 30 days

    Next report Oct 29, 2026, 30 days away — outside a typical 20-trading-day hold.

    See earnings
  • Seasonalitymixed

    +0.1% on average

    From this point in the calendar, the next 20 trading days averaged +0.1% over 5 years, rising in 2 of them.

    See seasonality

A description of current data, not a recommendation. How this page works

Rithm Capital stock chart and price history

Rithm Capital closed at $9.08 on Sep 28, 2026, −21.7% over the past year, inside a 52-week range of $8.43 to $12.15.

Close50-day average200-day averageVolume
Rithm Capital share price, past year, with 50-day and 200-day moving averages and volume$10$11$12NovDecJan 2026FebMarAprMayJunJulAugSep9.08

Use the left and right arrow keys to read daily values.

Performance Breakdown

1 month
−9.3%
3 months
−3.6%
6 months
−0.7%
1 year
−21.7%
The full RITM chart adds GekkoIndex, insider, options, Congress and hedge fund markers, plus TrendCandles™.Open RITM in Gekko

Follow Rithm Capital through every session

Put RITM on a Gekko watchlist and see its GekkoIndex, Gekko Fair Value and smart money signals update on the chart as they change.

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About Rithm Capital

Rithm Capital works as an asset manager whose focus sits on real estate, credit, and financial services across the United States. It has built recognition through its handling of loan origination and servicing, short-term residential lending tied to property transitions, and a wide-ranging set of investments connected to housing and mortgage markets.

The business is structured around three main activities: origination and servicing, transitional lending on residential properties, and asset management paired with its investment holdings. Those holdings touch single-family rental homes, title and appraisal operations, property upkeep services, mortgage-backed securities, loans backed or not backed by government agencies, pools of consumer debt, collateralized loan obligations, and rights tied to servicing mortgages. Because it operates as a real estate investment trust for tax purposes, Rithm Capital can sidestep federal corporate taxes provided it passes along the large majority of its taxable earnings to shareholders each year. The firm was once known under a different name, New Residential Investment Corp., before rebranding in 2022.

Rithm Capital traces its founding to 2011 and keeps its headquarters in New York, New York. Its stock trades under the ticker RITM.

Sector
Finance
Website
rithmcap.com

Rithm Capital GekkoIndex: the smart money zone

Rithm Capital’s GekkoIndex — Gekko’s 0 to 100 smart money score — reads 73.5, in the Buying zone, up 5.3 points over five sessions.

010073.5Buying

Up 5.3 points over five sessions, from the Accumulation zone.

Reading for Sep 28, 2026

What followed past readings in each zone

ZoneReadings5 days10 days20 days50 days
Buying (current zone)53−0.7%−0.2%+2.9%+2.2%
Accumulation205+0.4%+0.5%+1.1%+2.3%
Neutral343−0.2%−0.5%−1.3%−2.5%
Distribution24−0.6%−0.5%−0.9%−8.6%
Selling0Not available

Average RITM share-price change over the trading days after each daily reading in its GekkoIndex history. Across every stock Gekko tracks, Buying readings averaged +3.2% over 20 days. Past behaviour doesn’t guarantee future results.

Buying zone: Smart money likely accumulating heavily. About the five zones →

See every daily GekkoIndex reading plotted over the RITM price, zone by zone.Track RITM in Gekko

Is Rithm Capital stock overvalued? Gekko Fair Value

Rithm Capital trades 42.0% below Gekko Fair Value of $15.65, so the shares are undervalued on Gekko’s estimate.

Gekko’s own estimate of what Rithm Capital shares are worth, recalculated every trading day.

$15.65

Gekko Fair Value, Sep 26, 2026

42.0% Undervalued

How Gekko Fair Value works →

Gekko Fair Value on every chart, with the gap to price updating daily.Open RITM in Gekko

Rithm Capital insider and Congress trading

No open-market insider purchases were filed for Rithm Capital, and no Congress trades were disclosed, in the last 90 days.

Plus buybacks, unusual options and fund positions, each dated to when it became public.

Insider buying last 90 days

No open-market insider purchases were filed for RITM in the last 90 days.

From Form 4 filings, dated to when each was filed.

Every RITM insider filing, plotted on the chart in Gekko.Open RITM in Gekko

Congress trades last 90 days

No trades in RITM were disclosed by members of Congress in the last 90 days.

From congressional disclosures, which report amounts as ranges.

Congress disclosures for RITM, plotted on the chart in Gekko.Open RITM in Gekko

Buybacks

Rithm Capital has been buying back its own shares.

Bought back, quarter ended Mar 31, 2025
$50.00M
As a share of market cap
0.99%

From company filings.

Hedge funds and billionaires quarter ended Jun 30

0of the funds Gekko tracks hold RITM.

0added0opened0trimmed2sold out
Which funds are on each side, name by name.Unlock in Gekko

Rithm Capital earnings: next date and track record

Rithm Capital reports on Oct 29, 2026, before the open (30 days away), and beat the EPS estimate in 8 of its last 8 reports.

8 of 8reports beat the EPS estimate
±3.3%average move across the report
6 of 8reports followed by a gain

Share-price move across each report

+3.1%Oct ’24+3.1%Feb ’25+5.5%Apr ’25+1.5%Jul ’25+0.4%Oct ’25−0.2%Feb ’26−4.5%Apr ’26+8.2%Jul ’26

Last earnings call, Jul 28, 2026 AI summary

What they said
Rithm Capital reported a strong Q2 2026, with all divisions (Newrez, Genesis, Sculptor, Crestline, Elecor) delivering positive results despite volatile markets. The company now manages over $100 billion in investable assets, including $60 billion+ in third-party AUM across 200+ clients. Newrez projects $65 billion in mortgage originations for the year, while Genesis expects nearly $7 billion in production, up from $1.7 billion in 2022.
Guidance
Management expects higher-for-longer rates to benefit their $850 billion MSR portfolio. Full-year mortgage origination target is approximately $65 billion through Newrez. Genesis residential transitional lending projected just under $7 billion annually, reflecting significant growth.
ReportedEPSSurpriseRevenueSurpriseMove
Jul 28, 2026$0.60
est $0.50
+20.0%$1.28B
est $1.43B
−10.1%+8.2%
Apr 28, 2026$0.51
est $0.50
+2.5%$1.38B
est $1.27B
+8.7%−4.5%
Feb 3, 2026$0.74
est $0.57
+28.9%$1.29B
est $1.37B
−5.5%−0.2%
Oct 30, 2025$0.54
est $0.52
+3.8%$1.33B
est $1.24B
+7.2%+0.4%
Jul 28, 2025$0.54
est $0.51
+5.9%$419.8M
est $1.19B
−64.7%+1.5%
Apr 25, 2025$0.52
est $0.45
+15.6%$493.0M
est $1.16B
−57.6%+5.5%
Feb 6, 2025$0.60
est $0.44
+36.4%$1.09B
est $1.22B
−10.2%+3.1%
Oct 29, 2024$0.54
est $0.42
+28.6%−$254.2M
est $490.3M
−151.8%+3.1%

“Move” is the close of the first session after the report compared with the close of the last session before it, so it reads the same whether the company reported before the open or after the close.

Rithm Capital stock forecast and analyst price targets

Analysts’ average 12-month price target for Rithm Capital is $13.15, +44.8% from the last close, from 6 firms rating the stock in the last 90 days.

$13.15consensus 12-month target, +44.8% from the last close
Low $12.50High $14
Buy6
Hold0
Sell0

Each firm’s latest rating in the last 90 days: 6 firms.

Latest analyst actions

DateFirmRatingTargetvs price
Aug 21UBSBuy, reiterated$14+54.2%
Jul 31BTIGBuy, reiterated$13+43.2%
Jul 30RBC CapitalBuy, maintained$13+43.2%
Jul 30BTIGBuy, maintained$13+43.2%
Jul 29WedbushBuy, maintained$12.50+37.7%
+2.9%average 20-day move after past Buying readings
+0.1%average move over the next 20 trading days in the last 5 years
±2.4%typical daily move, from the 14-day average range

Gekko doesn’t publish price predictions. These are analyst targets and historical base rates, which don’t guarantee future results.

Rithm Capital seasonality: the next 20 trading days

Over the next 20 trading days from Sep 29, Rithm Capital averaged +0.1% across the last 5 years, rising in 2 of them.

Next 20 trading days, by year

+2.7%2021+11.7%2022−1.6%2023−7.8%2024−5.0%2025

Average move and hit rate

WindowAverageYears higher
Next 5 trading days−2.0%1 of 5
Next 10 trading days−1.4%2 of 5
Next 15 trading days−0.9%2 of 5
Next 20 trading days+0.1%2 of 5
Next 30 trading days+4.3%3 of 5

For scale, RITM’s typical 20-trading-day move in either direction is about 4.2%.

Rithm Capital market cap and key statistics

Rithm Capital’s market cap is $5.07B, with a P/E ratio of 15.2 and revenue of $4.32B over the last twelve months.

Valuation

Market cap
$5.07B
P/E ratio
15.2
Forward P/E
4.1
EPS, TTM
$0.60
Gekko Fair Value
$15.65

Trading

Volume
8.62M
Avg volume, 20 days
5.47M
52-week high
$12.15
52-week low
$8.43
Shares outstanding
558.4M

Financials

Revenue, TTM
$4.32B
Profit margin
10.8%
Return on equity
5.6%
Quarterly earnings growth, YoY
−93.2%

Risk and income

Beta
1.11
Typical daily move
±2.4%
Typical 20-day move
±4.2%
Dividend yield
11.00%

Rithm Capital stock news this week

4 headlines about Rithm Capital from the past week, newest first, each linking to the publisher.

More stocks

In the Buying zone today

Reporting earnings this week

Popular on Gekko

Rithm Capital stock FAQ

What is Rithm Capital’s market cap?

Rithm Capital’s market cap is $5.07B at the Sep 28, 2026 close of $9.08, with 558.4M shares outstanding. The shares trade on a P/E ratio of 15.2.

What is the Rithm Capital stock forecast?

The consensus analyst 12-month price target for Rithm Capital is $13.15, +44.8% from the last close. Of the 6 firms that rated the stock in the last 90 days, 6 rate it a buy, 0 a hold and 0 a sell. Gekko doesn’t publish price predictions of its own.

Is Rithm Capital stock overvalued or undervalued?

On Gekko’s estimate Rithm Capital is undervalued: the Sep 28, 2026 close of $9.08 is 42.0% below Gekko Fair Value of $15.65. Gekko Fair Value is recalculated every trading day, and a gap inside 5% either way counts as about fair value.

When does Rithm Capital report earnings next?

Rithm Capital is expected to report on Oct 29, 2026, before the market opens (30 days away). Analysts expect earnings of $0.51 per share on revenue of $1.46B. Rithm Capital beat the earnings estimate in 8 of its last 8 reports, moving 3.3% on average across the report.

What is Rithm Capital’s 52-week high and low?

Rithm Capital’s 52-week high is $12.15 and its 52-week low is $8.43; it closed at $9.08 on Sep 28, 2026, −21.7% over the past year. Over the last five years the shares peaked at $12.74 on Sep 5, 2025.

Is Rithm Capital stock a buy right now?

Gekko describes the data; it does not make buy or sell recommendations. On the swing-trade checklist, 3 of the 5 items with data read as supportive (gekkoindex, fair value and earnings risk), 1 as mixed (seasonality) and 1 as a headwind (trend). The checklist is a description of current data, not a recommendation.

How this page works

During US trading hours the price at the top of the page is a delayed quote, refreshed every 15 minutes; everything else is rebuilt after each US market close. The GekkoIndex, Gekko Fair Value and the checklist are Gekko’s own, and the Gekko Brief is written by AI from this page’s data and checked against it before it is published. How Gekko’s data works →

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