PDD (PDD) Stock Analysis & Forecast

Nov 4 close

$82.15+1.98 (+2.5%)

Gekko Brief

AI summaryNov 4 close

PDD shares moved this week on a mix of China policy support and regulatory news. Alibaba, JD.com and PDD climbed after China's central bank and securities regulator signaled fresh measures to support the country's capital market, including an expanded swap facility for financial firms. Separately, the European Commission approved Temu's action plan to curb illegal products following a €200 million fine, a development requiring PDD Holdings to undertake new risk assessments, algorithm reviews and an external audit.

PDD closed at $82.15, up 2.5%, sitting between its 50-day average of $79.91 and its 200-day average of $90.69. The GekkoIndex reads 52.7, placing the stock in the Neutral zone, down 10.8 over the past five readings. Price sits 45.1% below the Gekko Fair Value of $149.54. Over the past month the stock is up 4.8%, though it remains down 9.6% over three months, 19.7% over six months, and 39% over the past year.

PDD's next earnings report is scheduled for 18 November 2026, before the open, 13 days away and inside a typical 20-trading-day holding window; the prior report showed an EPS beat with a -0.7% reaction, and the average absolute reaction across recent quarters has been 7.6%. Seasonality over the next 20 trading days has averaged a 1.4% return across 5 years, rising in 2 of those years. No insider, Congress, or unusual options activity is recorded in the current window; analyst consensus from 12 firms includes 7 buy and 5 hold ratings, with a consensus target of $114.93.

Written by AI from the Nov 4, 2026 close and checked automatically against the figures on this page.

PDD price vs fair value

$149.54$82.15Nov ’25May ’26Nov ’26
Close $82.15200-day averageGekko Fair Value $149.54

PDD quick facts

Market cap
$116.9B
P/E ratio
8.8
Forward P/E
6.2
EPS, TTM
$9.24
Revenue, TTM
$450.8B
Profit margin
20.4%
Dividend yield
—
Beta
-0.08
Volume
6.42M avg 5.23M
1-year return
−39.0%
Typical daily move
±2.8%
Typical 20-day move
±9.2%
50-day average
$79.91
200-day average
$90.69
Next earnings
Nov 18 before open
Shares outstanding
1.42B
52-week range
$71.94$139.12

PDD swing-trade checklist

PDD scores 1 supportive, 3 mixed and 1 headwind across the 5 checklist items with data.

Six things swing traders check before a 20-day hold, read from the latest data.

1 supportive3 mixed1 headwind

  • Trendmixed

    Averages disagree

    Close $82.15 sits between the 50-day ($79.91) and 200-day ($90.69) averages, or the averages disagree.

    See the chart
  • GekkoIndexmixed

    52.7, Neutral

    Reading 52.7 is in the Neutral zone.

    See the GekkoIndex
  • Fair valuesupportive

    45.1% below

    Price is 45.1% below Gekko Fair Value (more than 5% below).

    See fair value
  • Smart moneyno data

    No data

    No insider, Congress or unusual options activity in the window.

    See smart money
  • Earnings riskheadwind

    Reports in 13 days

    Reports on Nov 18, 2026, 13 days away — inside a typical 20-trading-day hold.

    See earnings
  • Seasonalitymixed

    +1.4% on average

    From this point in the calendar, the next 20 trading days averaged +1.4% over 5 years, rising in 2 of them.

    See seasonality

A description of current data, not a recommendation. How this page works

PDD stock chart and price history

PDD closed at $82.15 on Nov 4, 2026, −39.0% over the past year, inside a 52-week range of $71.94 to $139.12.

Close50-day average200-day averageVolume
PDD share price, past year, with 50-day and 200-day moving averages and volume$100$120$140DecJan 2026FebMarAprMayJunJulAugSepOct82.15

Use the left and right arrow keys to read daily values.

Performance Breakdown

1 month
+4.8%
3 months
−9.6%
6 months
−19.7%
1 year
−39.0%
The full PDD chart adds GekkoIndex, insider, options, Congress and hedge fund markers, plus TrendCandles™.Open PDD in Gekko

Follow PDD through every session

Put PDD on a Gekko watchlist and see its GekkoIndex, Gekko Fair Value and smart money signals update on the chart as they change.

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About PDD

PDD operates a group of commerce businesses rather than a single retail brand, working to draw more merchants and shoppers into online trade. Its stated purpose is to give local communities and small businesses access to greater productivity and fresh opportunities through digital commerce. The company has become associated with building the infrastructure that makes this possible.

To support the businesses under its umbrella, PDD has put together its own sourcing, logistics, and fulfillment network. This backbone connects the different arms of the group and underpins the trade that happens across its platforms, linking merchants and buyers through shared operational capabilities.

The company was started in 2015 by Hua Lin Cai and Zheng Huang and now has its headquarters in Dublin, Ireland. Its shares trade under the ticker PDD.

Sector
Retail trade
Website
pddholdings.com

PDD GekkoIndex: the smart money zone

PDD’s GekkoIndex — Gekko’s 0 to 100 smart money score — reads 52.7, in the Neutral zone, down 10.8 points over five sessions.

010052.7Neutral

Down 10.8 points over five sessions, from the Accumulation zone.

Reading for Nov 4, 2026

What followed past readings in each zone

ZoneReadings5 days10 days20 days50 days
Buying73+2.2%+4.1%+9.2%+11.2%
Accumulation240+0.2%+1.4%+1.5%+0.1%
Neutral (current zone)309−0.5%−1.7%−3.4%−7.3%
Distribution28−3.1%−5.2%−5.0%−8.8%
Selling0Not available

Average PDD share-price change over the trading days after each daily reading in its GekkoIndex history. Across every stock Gekko tracks, Neutral readings averaged +1.0% over 20 days. Past behaviour doesn’t guarantee future results.

Neutral zone: No clear directional signal. About the five zones →

See every daily GekkoIndex reading plotted over the PDD price, zone by zone.Track PDD in Gekko

Is PDD stock overvalued? Gekko Fair Value

PDD trades 45.1% below Gekko Fair Value of $149.54, so the shares are undervalued on Gekko’s estimate.

Gekko’s own estimate of what PDD shares are worth, recalculated every trading day.

$149.54

Gekko Fair Value, Nov 4, 2026

45.1% Undervalued

At the end of Aug 2026 the price was 20.2% below the estimate.

Gekko Fair ValueShare price, month end
$150$80Aug 2026SepOctNov 2026

How Gekko Fair Value works →

Gekko Fair Value on every chart, with the gap to price updating daily.Open PDD in Gekko

PDD insider and Congress trading

No open-market insider purchases were filed for PDD, and no Congress trades were disclosed, in the last 90 days.

Plus buybacks, unusual options and fund positions, each dated to when it became public.

Insider buying last 90 days

No open-market insider purchases were filed for PDD in the last 90 days.

From Form 4 filings, dated to when each was filed.

Every PDD insider filing, plotted on the chart in Gekko.Open PDD in Gekko

Congress trades last 90 days

No trades in PDD were disclosed by members of Congress in the last 90 days.

From congressional disclosures, which report amounts as ranges.

Congress disclosures for PDD, plotted on the chart in Gekko.Open PDD in Gekko

Hedge funds and billionaires quarter ended Jun 30

1of the funds Gekko tracks holds PDD.

1added0opened0trimmed2sold out
Which funds are on each side, name by name.Unlock in Gekko

PDD earnings: next date and track record

PDD reports on Nov 18, 2026, before the open (13 days away), and beat the EPS estimate in 4 of its last 8 reports.

4 of 8reports beat the EPS estimate
±7.6%average move across the report
2 of 8reports followed by a gain

Share-price move across each report

−14.1%Nov ’24+0.6%Mar ’25−17.9%May ’25−2.5%Aug ’25−8.5%Nov ’25+2.6%Mar ’26−14.1%May ’26−0.7%Aug ’26

Last earnings call, Aug 24, 2026 AI summary

What they said
PDD Holdings reported Q2 2026 group revenue of RMB 112.4 billion, up 8% year-over-year, while net income declined 12% YoY to RMB 27.2 billion due to continued platform investments. The company's CNY 100 billion support program is gaining traction with improving supply and demand dynamics. PDD established a dedicated company in Xiong'an New Area and expanded R&D in platform governance, trust, and safety systems amid intense e-commerce competition.
Guidance
Management is pursuing a strategic goal of 'building another PDD over 3 years,' though first-party brand model rollout was slower than expected due to external factors. No specific revenue or earnings targets were provided; continued elevated investment in platform and ecosystem is expected to weigh on near-term profitability.
ReportedEPSSurpriseRevenueSurpriseMove
Aug 24, 2026$2.72
est $2.69
+1.1%$16.54B
est $16.94B
−2.4%−0.7%
May 27, 2026$9.51
est $16.37
−41.9%$15.40B
est $15.92B
−3.3%−14.1%
Mar 25, 2026$17.69
est $20.71
−14.6%$17.71B
est $17.80B
−0.5%+2.6%
Nov 18, 2025$2.96
est $2.21
+33.9%$15.21B
est $17.57B
−13.5%−8.5%
Aug 25, 2025$3.08
est $1.91
+61.3%$14.50B
est $15.09B
−3.9%−2.5%
May 27, 2025$11.41
est $18.96
−39.8%$13.14B
est $14.30B
−8.1%−17.9%
Mar 20, 2025$20.15
est $19.67
+2.4%$15.15B
est $14.31B
+5.9%+0.6%
Nov 21, 2024$18.59
est $19.67
−5.5%——−14.1%

“Move” is the close of the first session after the report compared with the close of the last session before it, so it reads the same whether the company reported before the open or after the close.

PDD stock forecast and analyst price targets

Analysts’ average 12-month price target for PDD is $114.93, +39.9% from the last close, from 12 firms rating the stock in the last 90 days.

$114.93consensus 12-month target, +39.9% from the last close
Low $89High $148.40
Buy7
Hold5
Sell0

Each firm’s latest rating in the last 90 days: 12 firms.

Latest analyst actions

DateFirmRatingTargetvs price
Oct 29Deutsche Bank Buy, upgraded$105+27.8%
Sep 10J.P. MorganHold, maintained$95+15.6%
Sep 7Arete ResearchHold, downgraded$93+13.2%
Aug 27Bank of America SecuritiesHold, reiterated$117+42.4%
Aug 26CGS InternationalBuy, reiterated$114+38.8%
−3.4%average 20-day move after past Neutral readings
+1.4%average move over the next 20 trading days in the last 5 years
±2.8%typical daily move, from the 14-day average range

Gekko doesn’t publish price predictions. These are analyst targets and historical base rates, which don’t guarantee future results.

PDD seasonality: the next 20 trading days

Over the next 20 trading days from Nov 4, PDD averaged +1.4% across the last 5 years, rising in 2 of them.

Next 20 trading days, by year

−37.2%2021+41.9%2022+33.9%2023−19.5%2024−12.4%2025

Average move and hit rate

WindowAverageYears higher
Next 5 trading days+2.6%4 of 5
Next 10 trading days+1.0%2 of 5
Next 15 trading days−4.6%2 of 5
Next 20 trading days+1.4%2 of 5
Next 30 trading days+1.8%2 of 5

For scale, PDD’s typical 20-trading-day move in either direction is about 9.2%.

PDD market cap and key statistics

PDD’s market cap is $116.9B, with a P/E ratio of 8.8 and revenue of $450.8B over the last twelve months.

Valuation

Market cap
$116.9B
P/E ratio
8.8
Forward P/E
6.2
EPS, TTM
$9.24
Gekko Fair Value
$149.54

Trading

Volume
6.42M
Avg volume, 20 days
5.23M
52-week high
$139.12
52-week low
$71.94
Shares outstanding
1.42B

Financials

Revenue, TTM
$450.8B
Profit margin
20.4%
Return on equity
22.8%
Quarterly earnings growth, YoY
−11.2%

Risk and income

Beta
-0.08
Typical daily move
±2.8%
Typical 20-day move
±9.2%

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PDD stock FAQ

What is PDD’s market cap?

PDD’s market cap is $116.9B at the Nov 4, 2026 close of $82.15, with 1.42B shares outstanding. The shares trade on a P/E ratio of 8.8.

What is the PDD stock forecast?

The consensus analyst 12-month price target for PDD is $114.93, +39.9% from the last close. Of the 12 firms that rated the stock in the last 90 days, 7 rate it a buy, 5 a hold and 0 a sell. Gekko doesn’t publish price predictions of its own.

Is PDD stock overvalued or undervalued?

On Gekko’s estimate PDD is undervalued: the Nov 4, 2026 close of $82.15 is 45.1% below Gekko Fair Value of $149.54. Gekko Fair Value is recalculated every trading day, and a gap inside 5% either way counts as about fair value.

When does PDD report earnings next?

PDD is expected to report on Nov 18, 2026, before the market opens (13 days away). Analysts expect earnings of $2.77 per share on revenue of $17.18B. PDD beat the earnings estimate in 4 of its last 8 reports, moving 7.6% on average across the report.

What is PDD’s 52-week high and low?

PDD’s 52-week high is $139.12 and its 52-week low is $71.94; it closed at $82.15 on Nov 4, 2026, −39.0% over the past year. Over the last five years the shares peaked at $164.69 on May 24, 2024.

Is PDD stock a buy right now?

Gekko describes the data; it does not make buy or sell recommendations. On the swing-trade checklist, 1 of the 5 items with data read as supportive (fair value), 3 as mixed (trend, gekkoindex and seasonality) and 1 as a headwind (earnings risk). The checklist is a description of current data, not a recommendation.

How this page works

During US trading hours the price at the top of the page is a delayed quote, refreshed every 15 minutes; everything else is rebuilt after each US market close. The GekkoIndex, Gekko Fair Value and the checklist are Gekko’s own, and the Gekko Brief is written by AI from this page’s data and checked against it before it is published. How Gekko’s data works →

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