NNN REIT (NNN) Stock Analysis & Forecast

Sep 28 close

$41.40+0.10 (+0.2%)

Gekko Brief

AI summary

NNN REIT draws mixed attention this week, with sell-side coverage keeping the stock at an average "Hold" rating from fourteen research firms, split between eight hold, four buy and two sell calls, and a 12-month price target of $47.53. Commentary elsewhere frames the recent pullback as an undervaluation opportunity, citing a fair value estimate of $46.42, a forward P/FFO multiple of 11.7x, a 6% yield, and portfolio occupancy of 99.1%, following a stated 16.2% slide from its latest peak. The company has also confirmed its third-quarter 2026 earnings release and conference call details for 4 November.

NNN closes at $41.40, up 0.2%, sitting between its 50-day average of $45.48 and 200-day average of $44.19, reflecting a mixed trend. The GekkoIndex reads 76.8, placing the stock in the Buying zone, though the index has slipped 6.7 points over the past five sessions. Price stands 41.9% below Gekko Fair Value of $71.26.

The next earnings date falls on 4 November 2026, 36 days out, putting the report outside a typical 20-trading-day holding window. No insider, Congress or unusual options activity appears in the current windows. Seasonally, the next 20 trading days have averaged a 1.8% gain over the past five years, rising in three of them, while stocks entering a Buying zone have historically averaged a 1.8% return over the following 20 days.

Written by AI and checked automatically against the figures on this page. Generated Sep 29, 2026 from the data above.

NNN REIT price vs fair value

▲$71.26$41.40Sep ’25Mar ’26Sep ’26
Close $41.40200-day averageGekko Fair Value $71.26

NNN REIT quick facts

Market cap
$7.88B
P/E ratio
20.4
Forward P/E
20.4
EPS, TTM
$2.02
Revenue, TTM
$953.2M
Profit margin
40.4%
Dividend yield
5.81%
Beta
0.77
Volume
3.58M avg 1.98M
1-year return
−1.5%
Typical daily move
±1.8%
Typical 20-day move
±3.6%
50-day average
$45.48
200-day average
$44.19
Next earnings
Nov 4
Shares outstanding
191.9M
52-week range
$38.90$50.00

NNN REIT swing-trade checklist

NNN REIT scores 4 supportive, 1 mixed and 0 headwinds across the 5 checklist items with data.

Six things swing traders check before a 20-day hold, read from the latest data.

4 supportive1 mixed0 headwinds

  • Trendmixed

    Averages disagree

    Close $41.40 sits between the 50-day ($45.48) and 200-day ($44.19) averages, or the averages disagree.

    See the chart
  • GekkoIndexsupportive

    76.8, Buying

    Reading 76.8 is in the Buying zone.

    See the GekkoIndex
  • Fair valuesupportive

    41.9% below

    Price is 41.9% below Gekko Fair Value (more than 5% below).

    See fair value
  • Smart moneyno data

    No data

    No insider, Congress or unusual options activity in the window.

    See smart money
  • Earnings risksupportive

    Reports in 36 days

    Next report Nov 4, 2026, 36 days away — outside a typical 20-trading-day hold.

    See earnings
  • Seasonalitysupportive

    +1.8% on average

    From this point in the calendar, the next 20 trading days averaged +1.8% over 5 years, rising in 3 of them.

    See seasonality

A description of current data, not a recommendation. How this page works

NNN REIT stock chart and price history

NNN REIT closed at $41.40 on Sep 28, 2026, −1.5% over the past year, inside a 52-week range of $38.90 to $50.00.

Close50-day average200-day averageVolume
NNN REIT share price, past year, with 50-day and 200-day moving averages and volume$40$44$46$48$50NovDecJan 2026FebMarAprMayJunJulAugSep41.40

Use the left and right arrow keys to read daily values.

Performance Breakdown

1 month
−8.7%
3 months
−12.5%
6 months
−1.3%
1 year
−1.5%
The full NNN chart adds GekkoIndex, insider, options, Congress and hedge fund markers, plus TrendCandles™.Open NNN in Gekko

Follow NNN REIT through every session

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About NNN REIT

NNN REIT owns a large portfolio of properties that it leases out under long-term, net lease arrangements, meaning tenants typically shoulder most of the ongoing costs of upkeep. Its holdings span thousands of individual properties spread across nearly every state, along with the District of Columbia and Puerto Rico, adding up to tens of millions of square feet of leasable space. The company is best known for this scale of net-leased real estate and the length of its lease commitments, which on average still run for roughly a decade.

The business is structured as a real estate investment trust, generating income primarily through the rent collected from its tenants under these extended lease agreements rather than through property sales or short-term rentals. This model relies on maintaining a broad, geographically diverse base of leased properties to produce steady rental income over time.

NNN REIT traces its incorporation back to August 1984 in Maryland and operates out of Orlando, Florida. Its shares trade under the ticker NNN.

Sector
Finance
Website
nnnreit.com

NNN REIT GekkoIndex: the smart money zone

NNN REIT’s GekkoIndex — Gekko’s 0 to 100 smart money score — reads 76.8, in the Buying zone, down 6.7 points over five sessions.

010076.8Buying

Down 6.7 points over five sessions.

Reading for Sep 28, 2026

What followed past readings in each zone

ZoneReadings5 days10 days20 days50 days
Buying (current zone)35+0.1%+0.6%+1.8%+2.5%
Accumulation174+0.2%+0.1%0.0%+2.4%
Neutral3920.0%0.0%+0.3%+0.7%
Distribution24−0.3%−0.3%−0.9%−1.9%
Selling0Not available

Average NNN share-price change over the trading days after each daily reading in its GekkoIndex history. Across every stock Gekko tracks, Buying readings averaged +3.2% over 20 days. Past behaviour doesn’t guarantee future results.

Buying zone: Smart money likely accumulating heavily. About the five zones →

See every daily GekkoIndex reading plotted over the NNN price, zone by zone.Track NNN in Gekko

Is NNN REIT stock overvalued? Gekko Fair Value

NNN REIT trades 41.9% below Gekko Fair Value of $71.26, so the shares are undervalued on Gekko’s estimate.

Gekko’s own estimate of what NNN REIT shares are worth, recalculated every trading day.

$71.26

Gekko Fair Value, Sep 26, 2026

41.9% Undervalued

How Gekko Fair Value works →

Gekko Fair Value on every chart, with the gap to price updating daily.Open NNN in Gekko

NNN REIT insider and Congress trading

No open-market insider purchases were filed for NNN REIT, and no Congress trades were disclosed, in the last 90 days.

Plus buybacks, unusual options and fund positions, each dated to when it became public.

Insider buying last 90 days

No open-market insider purchases were filed for NNN in the last 90 days.

From Form 4 filings, dated to when each was filed.

Every NNN insider filing, plotted on the chart in Gekko.Open NNN in Gekko

Congress trades last 90 days

No trades in NNN were disclosed by members of Congress in the last 90 days.

From congressional disclosures, which report amounts as ranges.

Congress disclosures for NNN, plotted on the chart in Gekko.Open NNN in Gekko

Buybacks

NNN REIT has been buying back its own shares.

Bought back, year ended Dec 31, 2019
$287.5M
As a share of market cap
3.65%

From company filings.

NNN REIT earnings: next date and track record

NNN REIT reports on Nov 4, 2026 (36 days away), and beat the EPS estimate in 4 of its last 8 reports.

4 of 8reports beat the EPS estimate
±2.5%average move across the report
4 of 8reports followed by a gain

Share-price move across each report

−5.6%Oct ’24+4.3%Feb ’25+1.6%May ’25−3.9%Aug ’25−2.6%Nov ’25+0.7%Feb ’26+1.0%Apr ’26−0.4%Aug ’26

Last earnings call, Aug 5, 2026 AI summary

What they said
NNN REIT Inc. reported a strong second quarter 2026 with high portfolio occupancy (99.1%), improved NOI margin (96.6%), very low bad debt (about 2 bps of ABR), and AFFO and core FFO increases (AFFO $0.90, core FFO $0.89, each up ~6% YoY). Management announced a 3% dividend increase (37th consecutive year) and raised 2026 AFFO per share guidance to $3.55–$3.59 (the second guidance increase this year). Acquisition activity was robust (roughly $290M invested in 89 properties), with continued pipeline and modest cap-rate compression; dispositions were elevated (including many vacant assets and some underperforming income-producing properties) and produced attractive pricing. Capital markets activity included exercising the accordion on the term loan to $500M and noting a $350M maturity in December; management discussed options for debt issuance and maintaining leverage around a 5.5x target. Management expressed confidence in portfolio health, citing minimal watch-list credit concerns and proactive asset management. During Q&A, management remained direct and confident on acquisitions, dispositions, tenant concentration (movie theaters, convenience, auto), capital structure, and vacancy management. Overall tone was constructive and measuredly optimistic.
Guidance
Updated 2026 AFFO per share guidance to $3.55 to $3.59. Management also indicated a modest increase in acquisition guidance (no numeric update provided) and noted elevated disposition activity for 2026.
Risks flagged
Standard forward-looking risk disclaimer; watch list/credit risks (historical concerns such as movie theaters like AMC noted but currently immaterial); capital markets/interest rate risk, including a $350M debt maturity in December and volatility in long-term rates; potential acquisition competition and cap-rate compression; retail industry/tenant concentration risks (restaurants, convenience stores, auto service, movie theaters).
ReportedEPSSurpriseRevenueSurpriseMove
Aug 5, 2026$0.90
est $0.87
+3.4%$242.7M
est $240.2M
+1.0%−0.4%
Apr 30, 2026$0.49
est $0.51
−3.9%$240.0M
est $237.8M
+1.0%+1.0%
Feb 11, 2026$0.87
est $0.49
+76.2%$237.5M
est $231.7M
+2.5%+0.7%
Nov 4, 2025$0.86
est $0.86
0.0%$230.2M
est $233.4M
−1.4%−2.6%
Aug 5, 2025$0.85
est $0.84
+1.2%$226.8M
est $226.6M
+0.1%−3.9%
May 1, 2025$0.87
est $0.83
+4.8%$230.9M
est $222.7M
+3.7%+1.6%
Feb 11, 2025$0.48
est $0.49
−2.0%$218.5M
est $217.5M
+0.4%+4.3%
Oct 31, 2024$0.49
est $0.49
0.0%$218.6M
est $218.5M
0.0%−5.6%

“Move” is the close of the first session after the report compared with the close of the last session before it, so it reads the same whether the company reported before the open or after the close.

NNN REIT stock forecast and analyst price targets

Analysts’ average 12-month price target for NNN REIT is $47.73, +15.3% from the last close, from 11 firms rating the stock in the last 90 days.

$47.73consensus 12-month target, +15.3% from the last close
Low $45High $50.50
Buy2
Hold7
Sell2

Each firm’s latest rating in the last 90 days: 11 firms.

Latest analyst actions

DateFirmRatingTargetvs price
Sep 21Morgan StanleyBuy, upgraded$50+20.8%
Sep 21Evercore ISIHold, maintained$47+13.5%
Sep 4BarclaysSell, maintained$47+13.5%
Sep 1Wells FargoHold, reiterated$47+13.5%
Aug 18UBSHold, reiterated$45+8.7%
+1.8%average 20-day move after past Buying readings
+1.8%average move over the next 20 trading days in the last 5 years
±1.8%typical daily move, from the 14-day average range

Gekko doesn’t publish price predictions. These are analyst targets and historical base rates, which don’t guarantee future results.

NNN REIT seasonality: the next 20 trading days

Over the next 20 trading days from Sep 29, NNN REIT averaged +1.8% across the last 5 years, rising in 3 of them.

Next 20 trading days, by year

+5.8%2021+6.6%2022−0.4%2023−3.9%2024+0.2%2025

Average move and hit rate

WindowAverageYears higher
Next 5 trading days0.0%2 of 5
Next 10 trading days+0.9%4 of 5
Next 15 trading days+1.9%4 of 5
Next 20 trading days+1.8%3 of 5
Next 30 trading days+2.8%3 of 5

For scale, NNN’s typical 20-trading-day move in either direction is about 3.6%.

NNN REIT market cap and key statistics

NNN REIT’s market cap is $7.88B, with a P/E ratio of 20.4 and revenue of $953.2M over the last twelve months.

Valuation

Market cap
$7.88B
P/E ratio
20.4
Forward P/E
20.4
EPS, TTM
$2.02
Gekko Fair Value
$71.26

Trading

Volume
3.58M
Avg volume, 20 days
1.98M
52-week high
$50.00
52-week low
$38.90
Shares outstanding
191.9M

Financials

Revenue, TTM
$953.2M
Profit margin
40.4%
Return on equity
8.7%
Quarterly earnings growth, YoY
−3.7%

Risk and income

Beta
0.77
Typical daily move
±1.8%
Typical 20-day move
±3.6%
Dividend yield
5.81%

NNN REIT stock news this week

Coverage of NNN REIT this week reads positive: 2 positive, 2 neutral and 0 negative headlines.

News sentiment positive

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In the Buying zone today

Reporting earnings this week

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NNN REIT stock FAQ

What is NNN REIT’s market cap?

NNN REIT’s market cap is $7.88B at the Sep 28, 2026 close of $41.40, with 191.9M shares outstanding. The shares trade on a P/E ratio of 20.4.

What is the NNN REIT stock forecast?

The consensus analyst 12-month price target for NNN REIT is $47.73, +15.3% from the last close. Of the 11 firms that rated the stock in the last 90 days, 2 rate it a buy, 7 a hold and 2 a sell. Gekko doesn’t publish price predictions of its own.

Is NNN REIT stock overvalued or undervalued?

On Gekko’s estimate NNN REIT is undervalued: the Sep 28, 2026 close of $41.40 is 41.9% below Gekko Fair Value of $71.26. Gekko Fair Value is recalculated every trading day, and a gap inside 5% either way counts as about fair value.

When does NNN REIT report earnings next?

NNN REIT is expected to report on Nov 4, 2026 (36 days away). Analysts expect earnings of $0.53 per share on revenue of $245.2M. NNN REIT beat the earnings estimate in 4 of its last 8 reports, moving 2.5% on average across the report.

What is NNN REIT’s 52-week high and low?

NNN REIT’s 52-week high is $50.00 and its 52-week low is $38.90; it closed at $41.40 on Sep 28, 2026, −1.5% over the past year.

Is NNN REIT stock a buy right now?

Gekko describes the data; it does not make buy or sell recommendations. On the swing-trade checklist, 4 of the 5 items with data read as supportive (gekkoindex, fair value, earnings risk and seasonality), 1 as mixed (trend). The checklist is a description of current data, not a recommendation.

How this page works

During US trading hours the price at the top of the page is a delayed quote, refreshed every 15 minutes; everything else is rebuilt after each US market close. The GekkoIndex, Gekko Fair Value and the checklist are Gekko’s own, and the Gekko Brief is written by AI from this page’s data and checked against it before it is published. How Gekko’s data works →

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