NYSE: MPLX

MPLX (MPLX) Stock Analysis & Forecast

Nov 4 close

$56.25−1.25 (−2.2%)

Gekko Brief

AI summaryNov 4 close

MPLX reported third-quarter adjusted EBITDA of $1.9 billion, up 5% from the same period in 2025, with earnings of $1.15 per unit topping consensus estimates of $1.14 and revenue of $3.61 billion surpassing the $3.36 billion consensus. Nine-month results showed net income of $1.17 billion and diluted EPS of $1.15, both down from the prior year. Separately, MPLX, Marathon Petroleum and CVR Energy announced a definitive agreement for the $4.2 billion sale of Minnesota and North Dakota refineries and related midstream assets, with a related $750 million asset sale said to support 2027 distribution growth and fund natural gas and NGL infrastructure expansion in the Permian and Marcellus basins.

MPLX closed at $56.25, down 2.2% on the day, with its close sitting between the 50-day average of $58.32 and the 200-day average of $57.25. The GekkoIndex reads 65.4, placing the stock in the Accumulation zone. Price stands 28.6% below the Gekko Fair Value of $78.81.

The next earnings date falls on 2 February 2027, 89 days out, beyond a typical 20-trading-day holding window. No insider, Congress or unusual options activity appears in the current windows, though one billionaire holder is recorded. Seasonally, the next 20 trading days have averaged a 2.9% gain over 5 years, rising in 3 of those years. Analyst coverage from 7 firms shows 4 buy and 3 hold ratings, with a consensus target of $62.92.

Written by AI from the Nov 4, 2026 close and checked automatically against the figures on this page.

MPLX price vs fair value

▲$78.81$56.25Nov ’25May ’26Nov ’26
Close $56.25200-day averageGekko Fair Value $78.81

MPLX quick facts

Market cap
$57.03B
P/E ratio
12.7
Forward P/E
12.5
EPS, TTM
$4.65
Revenue, TTM
$12.03B
Profit margin
39.3%
Dividend yield
7.16%
Beta
0.45
Volume
4.07M avg 1.51M
1-year return
+10.6%
Typical daily move
±2.2%
Typical 20-day move
±2.7%
50-day average
$58.32
200-day average
$57.25
Next earnings
Feb 2
Shares outstanding
1.01B
52-week range
$50.22$60.95

MPLX swing-trade checklist

MPLX scores 4 supportive, 1 mixed and 0 headwinds across the 5 checklist items with data.

Six things swing traders check before a 20-day hold, read from the latest data.

4 supportive1 mixed0 headwinds

  • Trendmixed

    Averages disagree

    Close $56.25 sits between the 50-day ($58.32) and 200-day ($57.25) averages, or the averages disagree.

    See the chart
  • GekkoIndexsupportive

    65.4, Accumulation

    Reading 65.4 is in the Accumulation zone.

    See the GekkoIndex
  • Fair valuesupportive

    28.6% below

    Price is 28.6% below Gekko Fair Value (more than 5% below).

    See fair value
  • Smart moneyno data

    No data

    No insider, Congress or unusual options activity in the window.

    See smart money
  • Earnings risksupportive

    Reports in 89 days

    Next report Feb 2, 2027, 89 days away — outside a typical 20-trading-day hold.

    See earnings
  • Seasonalitysupportive

    +2.9% on average

    From this point in the calendar, the next 20 trading days averaged +2.9% over 5 years, rising in 3 of them.

    See seasonality

A description of current data, not a recommendation. How this page works

MPLX stock chart and price history

MPLX closed at $56.25 on Nov 4, 2026, +10.6% over the past year, inside a 52-week range of $50.22 to $60.95.

Close50-day average200-day averageVolume
MPLX share price, past year, with 50-day and 200-day moving averages and volume$50$52$54$58$60DecJan 2026FebMarAprMayJunJulAugSepOct56.25

Use the left and right arrow keys to read daily values.

Performance Breakdown

1 month
−2.6%
3 months
−6.9%
6 months
+1.1%
1 year
+10.6%
The full MPLX chart adds GekkoIndex, insider, options, Congress and hedge fund markers, plus TrendCandles™.Open MPLX in Gekko

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About MPLX

MPLX supports the flow of energy commodities across the country by gathering natural gas and processing it, then transporting the output to where it is needed. It also works with natural gas liquids, covering their movement, separation into components, exchange, storage, and sale. Beyond gas, the company takes on crude oil and refined petroleum products, managing their collection, storage, movement, and delivery, and it sells related byproducts such as residue gas and condensate.

The company divides its work into two segments, one centered on logistics and storage and the other on gathering and processing activity. It also runs marine transport along inland waterways, moving fuels, oils, crude, renewable energy products, chemicals, and raw feedstock inputs through the Mid-Continent and Gulf Coast areas using its own vessels and chartered ones, backed by a repair yard on the Ohio River. Additional operations include fuel distribution, logistics tied to refining, rail infrastructure, underground storage caverns, and terminal sites where refined products are received, kept, mixed, treated with additives, and sent onward by pipeline, rail, boat, or truck. MPLX operates under Marathon Petroleum Corporation as its parent, with MPLX GP LLC acting as general partner.

The company was set up in 2012 and is headquartered in Findlay, Ohio. It trades on the NYSE under the ticker MPLX.

Listed
NYSE
Sector
Industrial services
Industry
Oil & gas pipelines
Website
mplx.com

MPLX GekkoIndex: the smart money zone

MPLX’s GekkoIndex — Gekko’s 0 to 100 smart money score — reads 65.4, in the Accumulation zone, up 10.6 points over five sessions.

010065.4Accumulation

Up 10.6 points over five sessions, from the Neutral zone.

Reading for Nov 4, 2026

What followed past readings in each zone

ZoneReadings5 days10 days20 days50 days
Buying11+2.8%+5.4%+4.6%+9.3%
Accumulation (current zone)140+1.1%+1.6%+2.6%+4.6%
Neutral500+0.2%+0.4%+0.9%+2.7%
Distribution400.0%+0.3%+2.2%+3.8%
Selling6Too few readings yet

Average MPLX share-price change over the trading days after each daily reading in its GekkoIndex history. Across every stock Gekko tracks, Accumulation readings averaged +2.0% over 20 days. Past behaviour doesn’t guarantee future results.

Accumulation zone: Institutional interest building. About the five zones →

See every daily GekkoIndex reading plotted over the MPLX price, zone by zone.Track MPLX in Gekko

Is MPLX stock overvalued? Gekko Fair Value

MPLX trades 28.6% below Gekko Fair Value of $78.81, so the shares are undervalued on Gekko’s estimate.

Gekko’s own estimate of what MPLX shares are worth, recalculated every trading day.

$78.81

Gekko Fair Value, Nov 4, 2026

28.6% Undervalued

At the end of Aug 2026 the price was 27.8% below the estimate.

Gekko Fair ValueShare price, month end
$79$58Aug 2026SepOctNov 2026

How Gekko Fair Value works →

Gekko Fair Value on every chart, with the gap to price updating daily.Open MPLX in Gekko

MPLX insider and Congress trading

No open-market insider purchases were filed for MPLX, and no Congress trades were disclosed, in the last 90 days.

Plus buybacks, unusual options and fund positions, each dated to when it became public.

Insider buying last 90 days

No open-market insider purchases were filed for MPLX in the last 90 days.

From Form 4 filings, dated to when each was filed.

Every MPLX insider filing, plotted on the chart in Gekko.Open MPLX in Gekko

Congress trades last 90 days

No trades in MPLX were disclosed by members of Congress in the last 90 days.

From congressional disclosures, which report amounts as ranges.

Congress disclosures for MPLX, plotted on the chart in Gekko.Open MPLX in Gekko

Buybacks

MPLX has been buying back its own shares.

Bought back, quarter ended Jun 30, 2026
$50.00M
As a share of market cap
0.09%
Trailing four quarters
$400.0M

From company filings.

Hedge funds and billionaires quarter ended Mar 31

1of the funds Gekko tracks holds MPLX.

0added0opened1trimmed0sold out
Which funds are on each side, name by name.Unlock in Gekko

MPLX earnings: next date and track record

MPLX reports on Feb 2, 2027 (89 days away), and beat the EPS estimate in 4 of its last 8 reports.

4 of 8reports beat the EPS estimate
±2.5%average move across the report
5 of 8reports followed by a gain

Share-price move across each report

+4.8%Nov ’24+4.7%Feb ’25−2.7%May ’25−2.7%Aug ’25+1.4%Nov ’25+0.5%Feb ’26−2.6%May ’26+0.6%Aug ’26

Last earnings call, Aug 4, 2026 AI summary

What they said
MPLX reported solid second-quarter 2026 results driven by execution across its integrated natural gas and NGL value chains. Adjusted EBITDA was $1.8 billion, up 5% year-over-year, enabling more than $1.1 billion returned to unitholders. Management highlighted strong utilization (Marcellus 96%, Delaware 86%, Utica 73%), the April startup of Secretariat I, and the August startup of Harmon Creek III, increasing processing capacity to 8.1 Bcf/d and deethanization to >800,000 bpd. MPLX reiterated disciplined capital allocation priorities (maintain assets, distribution growth, growth) and expects sequential EBITDA growth through the year with mid-single-digit adjusted EBITDA growth for 2026. The company plans to grow the quarterly distribution by 12.5% in both 2026 and 2027 and is targeting a coverage ratio of at least 1.3x. Management emphasized projects are on schedule and on budget (Titan expansion, Blackcomb/Eiger timelines, frac-and-dock project on budget with early spend pulled into 2H26), opportunistic M&A that meets strategic returns thresholds, and continued focus on operational optimization and safety.
Guidance
Mid-single-digit adjusted EBITDA growth in 2026; expectation that Q3 > Q2 and Q4 > Q3 (sequential growth); quarterly distribution growth of 12.5% in 2026 and 2027; target distributable coverage ratio of at least 1.3x for 2026 and 2027; project timing highlights: Secretariat I online April 2026 (already in service), Harmon Creek III beginning operations August 2026, Titan expansion on schedule for fourth-quarter delivery (2026), frac-and-dock expected online together in early 2028, Blackcomb and Eiger long-haul pipelines timing noted (Eiger late 2026; Blackcomb second half 2028), Bay Runner and Bay Runner Twin to be brought online just-in-time to support NextDecade LNG.
Risks flagged
Takeaway capacity constraints in the Permian over the medium term (forecasted Permian gas growth to ~35 Bcf/d by 2030) could create volatility and require additional infrastructure and capital; planned maintenance and turnaround activity (e.g., MPC turnaround) can reduce crude pipeline throughputs and increase operating expenses; the divestiture of Rockies assets impacted prior-year comparables; general macro and commodity price volatility and typical forward-looking risks noted in the safe-harbor/SEC filings may affect actual results.
ReportedEPSSurpriseRevenueSurpriseMove
Aug 4, 2026$1.06
est $1.04
+1.9%$3.08B
est $3.14B
−1.9%+0.6%
May 5, 2026$0.90
est $1.08
−16.7%$2.81B
est $3.09B
−9.3%−2.6%
Feb 3, 2026$1.17
est $1.06
+10.4%$3.25B
est $3.18B
+2.4%+0.5%
Nov 4, 2025$1.52
est $1.07
+42.1%$3.62B
est $3.16B
+14.6%+1.4%
Aug 5, 2025$1.03
est $1.06
−2.8%$2.79B
est $3.14B
−11.2%−2.7%
May 6, 2025$1.10
est $1.10
0.0%$2.89B
est $3.16B
−8.8%−2.7%
Feb 4, 2025$1.07
est $1.03
+3.9%$2.84B
est $3.07B
−7.6%+4.7%
Nov 5, 2024$1.01
est $1.03
−1.9%$2.78B
est $3.09B
−10.2%+4.8%

“Move” is the close of the first session after the report compared with the close of the last session before it, so it reads the same whether the company reported before the open or after the close.

MPLX stock forecast and analyst price targets

Analysts’ average 12-month price target for MPLX is $62.92, +11.9% from the last close, from 7 firms rating the stock in the last 90 days.

$62.92consensus 12-month target, +11.9% from the last close
Low $62High $73
Buy4
Hold3
Sell0

Each firm’s latest rating in the last 90 days: 7 firms.

Latest analyst actions

DateFirmRatingTargetvs price
Oct 20J.P. MorganHold, maintained$62+10.2%
Oct 13Morgan StanleyHold, maintained$64+13.8%
Oct 12BarclaysBuy, reiterated$63+12.0%
Sep 29UBSBuy, maintained$73+29.8%
Sep 9Stifel NicolausHold, initiated$65+15.6%
+2.6%average 20-day move after past Accumulation readings
+2.9%average move over the next 20 trading days in the last 5 years
±2.2%typical daily move, from the 14-day average range

Gekko doesn’t publish price predictions. These are analyst targets and historical base rates, which don’t guarantee future results.

MPLX seasonality: the next 20 trading days

Over the next 20 trading days from Nov 4, MPLX averaged +2.9% across the last 5 years, rising in 3 of them.

Next 20 trading days, by year

−6.1%2021−2.1%2022+1.6%2023+14.1%2024+7.1%2025

Average move and hit rate

WindowAverageYears higher
Next 5 trading days+0.7%3 of 5
Next 10 trading days+1.0%2 of 5
Next 15 trading days+2.2%3 of 5
Next 20 trading days+2.9%3 of 5
Next 30 trading days+0.2%3 of 5

For scale, MPLX’s typical 20-trading-day move in either direction is about 2.7%.

MPLX market cap and key statistics

MPLX’s market cap is $57.03B, with a P/E ratio of 12.7 and revenue of $12.03B over the last twelve months.

Valuation

Market cap
$57.03B
P/E ratio
12.7
Forward P/E
12.5
EPS, TTM
$4.65
Gekko Fair Value
$78.81

Trading

Volume
4.07M
Avg volume, 20 days
1.51M
52-week high
$60.95
52-week low
$50.22
Shares outstanding
1.01B

Financials

Revenue, TTM
$12.03B
Profit margin
39.3%
Return on equity
33.7%
Quarterly earnings growth, YoY
+3.2%

Risk and income

Beta
0.45
Typical daily move
±2.2%
Typical 20-day move
±2.7%
Dividend yield
7.16%

MPLX stock news this week

Coverage of MPLX this week reads positive: 10 positive, 5 neutral and 1 negative headlines.

News sentiment positive

MPLX peers

MPLX’s 6 largest industry peers by market value, with today’s move, GekkoIndex zone and gap to Gekko Fair Value.

StockTodayGekkoIndex zonevs Fair Value
ENBEnbridge−0.3%Neutral0.8% above
WMBWilliams Companies−4.9%Accumulation2.1% below
EPDEnterprise Products Partners−1.4%Neutral19.9% below
KMIKinder Morgan−3.4%Accumulation17.1% below
ETEnergy Transfer−0.5%Neutral40.3% below
TRPTC Energy−1.3%Neutral2.0% below

A peer links to its own page where one exists.

In the Buying zone today

Reporting earnings this week

Popular on Gekko

More stocks in Oil & gas pipelines

MPLX stock FAQ

What is MPLX’s market cap?

MPLX’s market cap is $57.03B at the Nov 4, 2026 close of $56.25, with 1.01B shares outstanding. The shares trade on a P/E ratio of 12.7.

What is the MPLX stock forecast?

The consensus analyst 12-month price target for MPLX is $62.92, +11.9% from the last close. Of the 7 firms that rated the stock in the last 90 days, 4 rate it a buy, 3 a hold and 0 a sell. Gekko doesn’t publish price predictions of its own.

Is MPLX stock overvalued or undervalued?

On Gekko’s estimate MPLX is undervalued: the Nov 4, 2026 close of $56.25 is 28.6% below Gekko Fair Value of $78.81. Gekko Fair Value is recalculated every trading day, and a gap inside 5% either way counts as about fair value.

When does MPLX report earnings next?

MPLX is expected to report on Feb 2, 2027 (89 days away). Analysts expect earnings of $1.15 per share on revenue of $3.44B. MPLX beat the earnings estimate in 4 of its last 8 reports, moving 2.5% on average across the report.

What is MPLX’s 52-week high and low?

MPLX’s 52-week high is $60.95 and its 52-week low is $50.22; it closed at $56.25 on Nov 4, 2026, +10.6% over the past year.

Is MPLX stock a buy right now?

Gekko describes the data; it does not make buy or sell recommendations. On the swing-trade checklist, 4 of the 5 items with data read as supportive (gekkoindex, fair value, earnings risk and seasonality), 1 as mixed (trend). The checklist is a description of current data, not a recommendation.

How this page works

During US trading hours the price at the top of the page is a delayed quote, refreshed every 15 minutes; everything else is rebuilt after each US market close. The GekkoIndex, Gekko Fair Value and the checklist are Gekko’s own, and the Gekko Brief is written by AI from this page’s data and checked against it before it is published. How Gekko’s data works →

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