MINISO (MNSO) Stock Analysis & Forecast

Oct 12 close

$9.73+0.13 (+1.4%)

Gekko Brief

AI summaryOct 12 close

MINISO shares advanced this week after a preliminary business update showed mainland China gross merchandise value rising 25%-30% year over year in the third quarter of 2026, with same-store sales up at a high-single-digit rate. The update also highlighted the proprietary IP line YOYO, which has surpassed RMB 1 billion in gross merchandise volume across its first nine months of 2026 and expanded to 53 countries. Coverage framed the move as a continuation of a 5.8% single-session jump, with commentary questioning whether the strength can extend further and noting a broader fair value debate around the stock.

The stock closed at $9.73, up 1.4%, but remains below both its 50-day average of $10.12 and its 200-day average of $14.31, with the shorter average below the longer one, consistent with a longer-term downtrend; the one-month return is 7.3% while the six-month and one-year returns stand at -38.5% and -55.9%. The GekkoIndex reads 53.6, placing it in the Neutral zone, down from a higher reading five days earlier. Against a Gekko Fair Value of $16.70, the current price sits 41.7% below that level.

No confirmed earnings date is on the calendar following the last report on 28 August 2026, when EPS of $0.14 missed the $0.31 estimate and the stock reacted -14%. In the last 90 days there has been 1 open-market insider purchase valued at $340,100. Consensus among 4 covering firms shows 1 buy and 3 hold ratings, with a consensus target of $14.64. Seasonality over the next 20 trading days has averaged a 5% gain across 5 years, rising in 4 of them.

Written by AI from the Oct 12, 2026 close and checked automatically against the figures on this page.

MINISO price vs fair value

$16.70$9.73Oct ’25Apr ’26Oct ’26
Close $9.73200-day averageGekko Fair Value $16.70

MINISO quick facts

Market cap
$2.97B
P/E ratio
15.4
Forward P/E
7.6
EPS, TTM
$0.59
Revenue, TTM
$23.55B
Profit margin
5.4%
Dividend yield
7.34%
Beta
0.15
Volume
1.19M avg 945,308
1-year return
−55.9%
Typical daily move
±2.8%
Typical 20-day move
±9.8%
50-day average
$10.12
200-day average
$14.31
Next earnings
—
Shares outstanding
292.5M
52-week range
$8.55$23.10

MINISO swing-trade checklist

MINISO scores 3 supportive, 1 mixed and 1 headwind across the 5 checklist items with data.

Six things swing traders check before a 20-day hold, read from the latest data.

3 supportive1 mixed1 headwind

  • Trendheadwind

    Below 50 and 200-day

    Close $9.73 is below the 50-day ($10.12) and 200-day ($14.31) averages, and the 50-day is below the 200-day.

    See the chart
  • GekkoIndexmixed

    53.6, Neutral

    Reading 53.6 is in the Neutral zone.

    See the GekkoIndex
  • Fair valuesupportive

    41.7% below

    Price is 41.7% below Gekko Fair Value (more than 5% below).

    See fair value
  • Smart moneysupportive

    Leans bullish

    Last 90 days: 1 open-market insider purchase.

    See smart money
  • Earnings riskno data

    No data

    No confirmed report date on the calendar.

    See earnings
  • Seasonalitysupportive

    +5.0% on average

    From this point in the calendar, the next 20 trading days averaged +5% over 5 years, rising in 4 of them.

    See seasonality

A description of current data, not a recommendation. How this page works

MINISO stock chart and price history

MINISO closed at $9.73 on Oct 12, 2026, −55.9% over the past year, inside a 52-week range of $8.55 to $23.10.

Close50-day average200-day averageVolume
MINISO share price, past year, with 50-day and 200-day moving averages and volume$15$20NovDecJan 2026FebMarAprMayJunJulAugSepOct9.73

Use the left and right arrow keys to read daily values.

Performance Breakdown

1 month
+7.3%
3 months
−15.6%
6 months
−38.5%
1 year
−55.9%
The full MNSO chart adds GekkoIndex, insider, options, Congress and hedge fund markers, plus TrendCandles™.Open MNSO in Gekko

Follow MINISO through every session

Put MNSO on a Gekko watchlist and see its GekkoIndex, Gekko Fair Value and smart money signals update on the chart as they change.

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About MINISO

MINISO operates as a holding company built around selling everyday lifestyle merchandise to shoppers in China and beyond, with a footprint stretching into other Asian markets, the Americas, and Europe. Shoppers can find home goods, small electronic devices, fabrics, accessories, beauty tools, toys, makeup, hygiene products, snack foods, fragrances, and paper goods or gifts, most carried under the MINISO and WonderLife names. The firm has also built recognition through its TOP TOY brand, which appeals to collectors seeking blind boxes, brick construction sets, figures, build kits, dolls, Ichiban Kuji prizes, and sculpted pieces.

Its business runs through both wholesale and direct retail channels, moving goods to customers via thousands of physical shops as well as internet storefronts. By the middle of 2021, the company counted close to 4,749 MINISO-branded locations open for business, supported by its online presence.

The company traces its founding back to 2013 and keeps its headquarters in Guangzhou, China. MINISO shares trade under the ticker symbol MNSO.

Sector
Retail trade
Website
miniso.com

MINISO GekkoIndex: the smart money zone

MINISO’s GekkoIndex — Gekko’s 0 to 100 smart money score — reads 53.6, in the Neutral zone, down 12 points over five sessions.

010053.6Neutral

Down 12 points over five sessions, from the Accumulation zone.

Reading for Oct 12, 2026

What followed past readings in each zone

ZoneReadings5 days10 days20 days50 days
Buying63+1.5%−0.3%−1.9%−5.2%
Accumulation292−0.3%0.0%−2.5%−4.5%
Neutral (current zone)266−0.8%−1.8%−1.2%−3.9%
Distribution13−1.6%−0.8%+1.0%−8.6%
Selling1Too few readings yet

Average MNSO share-price change over the trading days after each daily reading in its GekkoIndex history. Across every stock Gekko tracks, Neutral readings averaged +1.1% over 20 days. Past behaviour doesn’t guarantee future results.

Neutral zone: No clear directional signal. About the five zones →

See every daily GekkoIndex reading plotted over the MNSO price, zone by zone.Track MNSO in Gekko

Is MINISO stock overvalued? Gekko Fair Value

MINISO trades 41.7% below Gekko Fair Value of $16.70, so the shares are undervalued on Gekko’s estimate.

Gekko’s own estimate of what MINISO shares are worth, recalculated every trading day.

$16.70

Gekko Fair Value, Oct 10, 2026

41.7% Undervalued

At the end of Aug 2026 the price was 43.8% below the estimate.

Gekko Fair ValueShare price, month end
$17$10Aug 2026SepOct 2026

How Gekko Fair Value works →

Gekko Fair Value on every chart, with the gap to price updating daily.Open MNSO in Gekko

MINISO insider and Congress trading

Insiders filed 1 open-market purchase in MINISO worth $340K, and no Congress trades were disclosed, in the last 90 days.

Plus buybacks, unusual options and fund positions, each dated to when it became public.

Insider buying last 90 days

$340Kin 1 open-market purchase

FiledInsiderTypeSharesValue
Sep 30Zhang Jingjing Eason
officer: VP and Chief Financial Officer
Purchase150,600$340K

From Form 4 filings, dated to when each was filed.

Congress trades last 90 days

No trades in MNSO were disclosed by members of Congress in the last 90 days.

From congressional disclosures, which report amounts as ranges.

Congress disclosures for MNSO, plotted on the chart in Gekko.Open MNSO in Gekko

MINISO earnings: next date and track record

MINISO beat the EPS estimate in 2 of its last 8 reports, moving 14.3% on average across the report.

2 of 8reports beat the EPS estimate
±14.3%average move across the report
3 of 8reports followed by a gain

Share-price move across each report

+23.4%Nov ’24−11.7%Mar ’25−21.5%May ’25+27.8%Aug ’25−1.7%Nov ’25+6.5%Mar ’26−7.8%May ’26−14.0%Aug ’26

Last earnings call, Aug 28, 2026 AI summary

What they said
MNSO reported H1 2026 revenue of RMB 11.5 billion, up 22.4% YoY, with EPS growing 8.2% and operating cash flow rising 46%. MINISO China revenue grew 26.2%, its fastest H1 growth in 3 years, outpacing China's 1.3% retail growth. Global store count reached 8,674, with China at 4,665. Store productivity improved significantly, with revenue growing 26% against only 8% store count growth. New store formats including MINISO Land, Friends, and Super MINISO are driving higher per-store output.
Guidance
Management expressed confidence in exceeding its 255 store renovation target for 2026. The company is focused on large-format store expansion and proprietary IP development, with YOYO IP already in 53 countries within one year of launch, signaling continued international growth ambitions.
ReportedEPSSurpriseRevenueSurpriseMove
Aug 28, 2026$0.14
est $0.31
−54.4%$855.2M
est $852.7M
+0.3%−14.0%
May 26, 2026$0.59
est $0.24
+148.3%$824.4M
est $805.6M
+2.3%−7.8%
Mar 31, 2026−$0.07
est $0.27
−125.3%$894.1M
est $873.6M
+2.3%+6.5%
Nov 21, 2025$0.20
est $0.34
−40.8%$814.0M
est $860.1M
−5.4%−1.7%
Aug 21, 2025$2.24
est $1.75
+28.0%$693.0M
est $789.0M
−12.2%+27.8%
May 23, 2025$1.88
est $2.04
−7.8%$608.0M
est $676.9M
−10.2%−21.5%
Mar 21, 2025$2.56
est $2.61
−1.9%$645.5M
est $598.0M
+7.9%−11.7%
Nov 29, 2024$2.20
est $2.21
−0.5%$644.5M
est $673.3M
−4.3%+23.4%

“Move” is the close of the first session after the report compared with the close of the last session before it, so it reads the same whether the company reported before the open or after the close.

MINISO stock forecast and analyst price targets

Analysts’ average 12-month price target for MINISO is $14.64, +50.5% from the last close, from 4 firms rating the stock in the last 90 days.

$14.64consensus 12-month target, +50.5% from the last close
Low $10.80High $12.40
Buy1
Hold3
Sell0

Each firm’s latest rating in the last 90 days: 4 firms.

Latest analyst actions

DateFirmRatingTargetvs price
Sep 8DBSBuy, maintained$12+23.3%
Aug 31Bank of America SecuritiesHold, reiterated$12.40+27.4%
Aug 31HSBCHold, downgraded$10.80+11.0%
Aug 31CitiHold, downgraded——
Aug 31DBSBuy, maintained$20+105.5%
−1.2%average 20-day move after past Neutral readings
+5.0%average move over the next 20 trading days in the last 5 years
±2.8%typical daily move, from the 14-day average range

Gekko doesn’t publish price predictions. These are analyst targets and historical base rates, which don’t guarantee future results.

MINISO seasonality: the next 20 trading days

Over the next 20 trading days from Oct 10, MINISO averaged +5.0% across the last 5 years, rising in 4 of them.

Next 20 trading days, by year

+1.7%2021+21.5%2022+3.0%2023+7.2%2024−2.7%2025

Average move and hit rate

WindowAverageYears higher
Next 5 trading days−4.2%2 of 5
Next 10 trading days+1.1%3 of 5
Next 15 trading days−0.4%2 of 5
Next 20 trading days+5.0%4 of 5
Next 30 trading days+7.9%1 of 5

For scale, MNSO’s typical 20-trading-day move in either direction is about 9.8%.

MINISO market cap and key statistics

MINISO’s market cap is $2.97B, with a P/E ratio of 15.4 and revenue of $23.55B over the last twelve months.

Valuation

Market cap
$2.97B
P/E ratio
15.4
Forward P/E
7.6
EPS, TTM
$0.59
Gekko Fair Value
$16.70

Trading

Volume
1.19M
Avg volume, 20 days
945,308
52-week high
$23.10
52-week low
$8.55
Shares outstanding
292.5M

Financials

Revenue, TTM
$23.55B
Profit margin
5.4%
Return on equity
11.8%
Quarterly earnings growth, YoY
+200.0%

Risk and income

Beta
0.15
Typical daily move
±2.8%
Typical 20-day move
±9.8%
Dividend yield
7.34%

MINISO stock news this week

Coverage of MINISO this week reads positive: 3 positive, 1 neutral and 0 negative headlines.

News sentiment positive

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In the Buying zone today

Reporting earnings this week

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MINISO stock FAQ

What is MINISO’s market cap?

MINISO’s market cap is $2.97B at the Oct 12, 2026 close of $9.73, with 292.5M shares outstanding. The shares trade on a P/E ratio of 15.4.

What is the MINISO stock forecast?

The consensus analyst 12-month price target for MINISO is $14.64, +50.5% from the last close. Of the 4 firms that rated the stock in the last 90 days, 1 rate it a buy, 3 a hold and 0 a sell. Gekko doesn’t publish price predictions of its own.

Is MINISO stock overvalued or undervalued?

On Gekko’s estimate MINISO is undervalued: the Oct 12, 2026 close of $9.73 is 41.7% below Gekko Fair Value of $16.70. Gekko Fair Value is recalculated every trading day, and a gap inside 5% either way counts as about fair value.

What is MINISO’s 52-week high and low?

MINISO’s 52-week high is $23.10 and its 52-week low is $8.55; it closed at $9.73 on Oct 12, 2026, −55.9% over the past year. Over the last five years the shares peaked at $29.92 on Sep 15, 2023.

Is MINISO stock a buy right now?

Gekko describes the data; it does not make buy or sell recommendations. On the swing-trade checklist, 3 of the 5 items with data read as supportive (fair value, smart money and seasonality), 1 as mixed (gekkoindex) and 1 as a headwind (trend). The checklist is a description of current data, not a recommendation.

How this page works

During US trading hours the price at the top of the page is a delayed quote, refreshed every 15 minutes; everything else is rebuilt after each US market close. The GekkoIndex, Gekko Fair Value and the checklist are Gekko’s own, and the Gekko Brief is written by AI from this page’s data and checked against it before it is published. How Gekko’s data works →

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