Insider buying last 90 days
No open-market insider purchases were filed for MAT in the last 90 days.
From Form 4 filings, dated to when each was filed.
Every MAT insider filing, plotted on the chart in Gekko.Open MAT in Gekko
NASDAQ: MAT
Mattel (MAT) Stock Analysis & Forecast
Oct 12 close
$16.76+0.07 (+0.4%)
Gekko Brief
Oct 12 closeMattel closed at $16.76 on 12 October 2026, +0.4% on the day. The price sits between the 50-day ($14.51) and 200-day ($15.77) moving averages, inside a 52-week range of $12.40 to $22.48. The GekkoIndex reads 43.6, in the Distribution zone, up 1 points over five sessions. Gekko Fair Value is $24.47, so the price is 31.5% below it.
The next earnings report is due on 29 October 2026, 17 days away (after close). Over the last 8 reports the company beat the earnings estimate 4 times, with an average move of 8.5% across the report. Seasonally, the next 20 trading days from this point averaged +1.7% over the last 5 years, rising in 2 of them.
10 firms rate the stock: 7 buy, 1 hold and 2 sell, with a consensus target of $18.17. A typical daily move is about 5.3%, and a typical 20-day move about 5.6%. On the swing-trade checklist, 1 item reads supportive and 2 read as a headwind (gekkoindex, earnings risk).
A plain summary of the figures as of the Oct 12, 2026 close.
Mattel price vs fair value
Close $16.76200-day averageGekko Fair Value $24.47
Mattel quick facts
- Market cap
- $4.87B
- P/E ratio
- 12.3
- Forward P/E
- 8.5
- EPS, TTM
- $1.36
- Revenue, TTM
- $5.49B
- Profit margin
- 7.8%
- Dividend yield
- —
- Beta
- 0.70
- Volume
- 6.54M avg 9.23M
- 1-year return
- −7.4%
- Typical daily move
- ±5.3%
- Typical 20-day move
- ±5.6%
- 50-day average
- $14.51
- 200-day average
- $15.77
- Next earnings
- Oct 29 after close
- Shares outstanding
- 285.7M
Mattel swing-trade checklist
Mattel scores 1 supportive, 2 mixed and 2 headwinds across the 5 checklist items with data.
Six things swing traders check before a 20-day hold, read from the latest data.
1 supportive2 mixed2 headwinds
- Trendmixed
Averages disagree
Close $16.76 sits between the 50-day ($14.51) and 200-day ($15.77) averages, or the averages disagree.
See the chart - GekkoIndexheadwind
43.6, Distribution
Reading 43.6 is in the Distribution zone.
See the GekkoIndex - Fair valuesupportive
31.5% below
Price is 31.5% below Gekko Fair Value (more than 5% below).
See fair value - Smart moneyno data
No data
No insider, Congress or unusual options activity in the window.
See smart money - Earnings riskheadwind
Reports in 17 days
Reports on Oct 29, 2026, 17 days away — inside a typical 20-trading-day hold.
See earnings - Seasonalitymixed
+1.7% on average
From this point in the calendar, the next 20 trading days averaged +1.7% over 5 years, rising in 2 of them.
See seasonality
A description of current data, not a recommendation. How this page works
Mattel stock chart and price history
Mattel closed at $16.76 on Oct 12, 2026, −7.4% over the past year, inside a 52-week range of $12.40 to $22.48.
Close50-day average200-day averageVolume
Use the left and right arrow keys to read daily values.
Performance Breakdown
- 1 month
- +19.6%
- 3 months
- +22.6%
- 6 months
- +15.3%
- 1 year
- −7.4%
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About Mattel
Mattel designs and makes toys and related goods for children worldwide, and is best known for doll lines such as Barbie and American Girl, along with die-cast vehicles like Hot Wheels and Matchbox. Its catalog also spans preschool brands including Fisher-Price and Thomas & Friends, plus action figures, building sets and games tied to names like Masters of the Universe, MEGA and UNO. Many products carry licenses from outside partners such as Disney, Nickelodeon, WWE, Microsoft, Warner Bros and Sanrio.
The business is organized into North America, International, and a dedicated American Girl division, the last of which pairs dolls with companion books. Mattel reaches shoppers both directly, through its own catalogs, websites and stores, and indirectly, by selling through discount chains, department stores, toy retailers, wholesalers, agents and other distributors.
Mattel was founded in 1945 and is based in El Segundo, California. Its shares are listed on the NASDAQ under the ticker MAT.
- Listed
- NASDAQ
- Sector
- Consumer durables
- Industry
- Recreational products
- Website
- corporate.mattel.com
Mattel GekkoIndex: the smart money zone
Mattel’s GekkoIndex — Gekko’s 0 to 100 smart money score — reads 43.6, in the Distribution zone, up 1 point over five sessions.
43.6Distribution
Up 1 point over five sessions.
Reading for Oct 12, 2026
What followed past readings in each zone
| Zone | Readings | 5 days | 20 days | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Buying | 52 | +0.9% | +4.7% | ||
| Accumulation | 232 | +0.7% | +2.0% | ||
| Neutral | 379 | −0.4% | −2.0% | ||
| Distribution (current zone) | 18 | −0.7% | −5.8% | ||
| Selling | 1 | Too few readings yet | |||
Average MAT share-price change over the trading days after each daily reading in its GekkoIndex history. Across every stock Gekko tracks, Distribution readings averaged +1.2% over 20 days. Past behaviour doesn’t guarantee future results.
Distribution zone: Institutions potentially offloading. About the five zones →
See every daily GekkoIndex reading plotted over the MAT price, zone by zone.Track MAT in Gekko
Is Mattel stock overvalued? Gekko Fair Value
Mattel trades 31.5% below Gekko Fair Value of $24.47, so the shares are undervalued on Gekko’s estimate.
Gekko’s own estimate of what Mattel shares are worth, recalculated every trading day.
$24.47
Gekko Fair Value, Oct 10, 2026
31.5% Undervalued
At the end of Aug 2026 the price was 11.4% below the estimate.
Gekko Fair ValueShare price, month end
Gekko Fair Value on every chart, with the gap to price updating daily.Open MAT in Gekko
Mattel insider and Congress trading
No open-market insider purchases were filed for Mattel, and no Congress trades were disclosed, in the last 90 days.
Plus buybacks, unusual options and fund positions, each dated to when it became public.
Congress trades last 90 days
No trades in MAT were disclosed by members of Congress in the last 90 days.
From congressional disclosures, which report amounts as ranges.
Congress disclosures for MAT, plotted on the chart in Gekko.Open MAT in Gekko
Buybacks
Mattel has been buying back its own shares.
- Latest authorization
- $1.50B, Feb 10, 2026
- Bought back, quarter ended Jun 30, 2026
- $200.0M
- As a share of market cap
- 4.11%
- Trailing four quarters
- $608.0M
From company filings.
Hedge funds and billionaires quarter ended Jun 30
1of the funds Gekko tracks holds MAT.
0added0opened1trimmed0sold out
Which funds are on each side, name by name.Unlock in Gekko
Mattel earnings: next date and track record
Mattel reports on Oct 29, 2026, after the close (17 days away), and beat the EPS estimate in 4 of its last 8 reports.
Next earnings report
Oct 29, 2026
Expected after the close, 17 days away
- EPS estimate
- $0.97
- Revenue estimate
- $1.84B
4 of 8reports beat the EPS estimate
±8.5%average move across the report
4 of 8reports followed by a gain
Share-price move across each report
Last earnings call, Aug 4, 2026 AI summary
- What they said
- Mattel reported Q2 2026 net sales growth of 10% as reported and 9% in constant currency, with double-digit growth in North America. Hot Wheels grew 12%, UNO/games benefited from Mattel163 acquisition, while Dolls and Fisher-Price declined. Mattel held #1 global position in Dolls, Vehicles, and Infant/Toddler/Preschool categories, gaining share in Vehicles and Action Figures per Circana.
- Guidance
- Mattel reiterated full year 2026 guidance with positive POS trends continuing into Q3. Organic growth investments expected to contribute net positive to bottom line in 2027 and beyond. Barbie expected to return to growth in 2027, supported by new content and product launches.
| Reported | EPS | Revenue | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 4, 2026 | $0.01 est $0.04 | $1.13B est $1.10B | −2.8% |
| Apr 29, 2026 | −$0.20 est −$0.09 | $862.2M est $808.4M | +2.0% |
| Feb 10, 2026 | $0.39 est $0.53 | $1.77B est $1.84B | −26.6% |
| Oct 21, 2025 | $0.89 est $1.06 | $1.74B est $1.85B | −0.4% |
| Jul 23, 2025 | $0.19 est $0.16 | $1.02B est $1.88B | −15.1% |
| May 5, 2025 | −$0.03 est −$0.11 | $826.6M est $791.5M | +1.6% |
| Feb 4, 2025 | $0.35 est $0.20 | $1.65B est $1.63B | +17.2% |
| Oct 23, 2024 | $1.14 est $0.95 | $1.84B est $1.64B | +2.5% |
“Move” is the close of the first session after the report compared with the close of the last session before it, so it reads the same whether the company reported before the open or after the close.
Mattel stock forecast and analyst price targets
Analysts’ average 12-month price target for Mattel is $18.17, +8.4% from the last close, from 10 firms rating the stock in the last 90 days.
$18.17consensus 12-month target, +8.4% from the last close
Now $16.76Avg $18.17
Low $12High $28
Each firm’s latest rating in the last 90 days: 10 firms.
Latest analyst actions
| Date | Firm | Target | vs price |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 12 | Seaport Global | $20 | +19.3% |
| Sep 28 | Wells Fargo | $18 | +7.4% |
| Sep 25 | Roth MKM | $15 | −10.5% |
| Sep 15 | Goldman Sachs | $12 | −28.4% |
| Aug 24 | UBS | $28 | +67.1% |
−5.8%average 20-day move after past Distribution readings
+1.7%average move over the next 20 trading days in the last 5 years
±5.3%typical daily move, from the 14-day average range
Gekko doesn’t publish price predictions. These are analyst targets and historical base rates, which don’t guarantee future results.
Mattel seasonality: the next 20 trading days
Over the next 20 trading days from Oct 10, Mattel averaged +1.7% across the last 5 years, rising in 2 of them.
Next 20 trading days, by year
Average move and hit rate
| Window | Average | Years higher |
|---|---|---|
| Next 5 trading days | +3.1% | 4 of 5 |
| Next 10 trading days | +0.9% | 3 of 5 |
| Next 15 trading days | +3.2% | 3 of 5 |
| Next 20 trading days | +1.7% | 2 of 5 |
| Next 30 trading days | +0.6% | 2 of 5 |
For scale, MAT’s typical 20-trading-day move in either direction is about 5.6%.
Mattel market cap and key statistics
Mattel’s market cap is $4.87B, with a P/E ratio of 12.3 and revenue of $5.49B over the last twelve months.
Valuation
- Market cap
- $4.87B
- P/E ratio
- 12.3
- Forward P/E
- 8.5
- EPS, TTM
- $1.36
- Gekko Fair Value
- $24.47
Trading
- Volume
- 6.54M
- Avg volume, 20 days
- 9.23M
- 52-week high
- $22.48
- 52-week low
- $12.40
- Shares outstanding
- 285.7M
Financials
- Revenue, TTM
- $5.49B
- Profit margin
- 7.8%
- Return on equity
- 20.5%
- Quarterly earnings growth, YoY
- −18.5%
Risk and income
- Beta
- 0.70
- Typical daily move
- ±5.3%
- Typical 20-day move
- ±5.6%
Mattel stock news this week
Coverage of Mattel this week reads positive: 7 positive, 5 neutral and 2 negative headlines.
- Mattel is upgraded at Seaport Research on 'underappreciated' value (MAT:NASDAQ)Seeking Alpha, Oct 12
- Seaport upgrades Mattel stock rating on takeover prospects By Investing.comInvesting.com Canada, Oct 12
- Mattel (NASDAQ:MAT) Stock Moved Up to "Buy" by Seaport Research PartnersMarketBeat, Oct 12
- Mattel’s latest play to counter slowing Barbie sales: Water parksLos Angeles Times, Oct 10
- Barbie’s New Boss: Mattel Taps a Warner Bros. Exec to Be Its New Head of DollsThe Hollywood Reporter, Oct 9
- Mattel Supports the American Red Cross and Everyday Heroes with Global Giveback Campaign for Matchbox The MovieWebWire, Oct 9
Mattel peers
Mattel’s 6 largest industry peers by market value, with today’s move, GekkoIndex zone and gap to Gekko Fair Value.
| Stock | GekkoIndex zone | vs Fair Value |
|---|---|---|
| ASAmer Sports | Neutral | 16.2% below |
| HASHasbro | Neutral | 5.4% below |
| GOLFAcushnet | Accumulation | 4.3% above |
| THOThor Industries | Buying | 31.4% below |
| PIIPolaris | Accumulation | 21.4% below |
| CALYCallaway Golf | Accumulation | 21.9% below |
A peer links to its own page where one exists.
Mattel stock FAQ
What is Mattel’s market cap?
Mattel’s market cap is $4.87B at the Oct 12, 2026 close of $16.76, with 285.7M shares outstanding. The shares trade on a P/E ratio of 12.3.
What is the Mattel stock forecast?
The consensus analyst 12-month price target for Mattel is $18.17, +8.4% from the last close. Of the 10 firms that rated the stock in the last 90 days, 7 rate it a buy, 1 a hold and 2 a sell. Gekko doesn’t publish price predictions of its own.
Is Mattel stock overvalued or undervalued?
On Gekko’s estimate Mattel is undervalued: the Oct 12, 2026 close of $16.76 is 31.5% below Gekko Fair Value of $24.47. Gekko Fair Value is recalculated every trading day, and a gap inside 5% either way counts as about fair value.
When does Mattel report earnings next?
Mattel is expected to report on Oct 29, 2026, after the market closes (17 days away). Analysts expect earnings of $0.97 per share on revenue of $1.84B. Mattel beat the earnings estimate in 4 of its last 8 reports, moving 8.5% on average across the report.
What is Mattel’s 52-week high and low?
Mattel’s 52-week high is $22.48 and its 52-week low is $12.40; it closed at $16.76 on Oct 12, 2026, −7.4% over the past year. Over the last five years the shares peaked at $26.99 on May 4, 2022.
Is Mattel stock a buy right now?
Gekko describes the data; it does not make buy or sell recommendations. On the swing-trade checklist, 1 of the 5 items with data read as supportive (fair value), 2 as mixed (trend and seasonality) and 2 as headwinds (gekkoindex and earnings risk). The checklist is a description of current data, not a recommendation.
How this page works
During US trading hours the price at the top of the page is a delayed quote, refreshed every 15 minutes; everything else is rebuilt after each US market close. The GekkoIndex, Gekko Fair Value and the checklist are Gekko’s own, and the Gekko Brief is written by AI from this page’s data and checked against it before it is published. How Gekko’s data works →
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