ORIX (IX) Stock Analysis & Forecast

Nov 4 close

$37.04+0.56 (+1.5%)

Gekko Brief

AI summaryNov 4 close

This week's news flow centers on ORIX USA's leadership, with Lourdes (Fisher) Solis appointed Managing Director and Head of Capital Formation for the Americas, joining James Gruver, as the company builds out its institutional investor relations and private markets platform after raising over $1 billion in real estate strategies. Separate coverage also compared ORIX to Grupo Financiero Banorte SAB de CV on value metrics. A share change report noted Baroque's stake in ORIX falling from 9.90% to 0.00%, marking a complete divestment, though this sits alongside the broader personnel and value-comparison stories rather than driving the move on its own.

ORIX shares closed at $37.04, up 1.5% on the day, sitting between the 50-day average of $38.10 and the 200-day average of $36.16. The stock's one-month return stands at -0.3%, with a three-month return of -10.3%, a six-month return of 8.6%, and a one-year return of 51.2%. The GekkoIndex reads 61.5, placing it in the Accumulation zone, up 1.2 over five days. Price sits 5.8% below Gekko Fair Value of $39.33.

ORIX reports earnings on 9 November 2026, four days away and inside a typical 20-trading-day holding window; the prior quarter saw EPS of $0.69 against a $0.67 estimate, with a 9.3% reaction, and the company has beaten estimates in 6 of the last 8 quarters. Seasonality from this point has averaged a 5.8% gain over the next 20 trading days across 5 years, rising in 4 of them. The sole covering analyst holds a consensus target of $41.09, implying 10.9% upside.

Written by AI from the Nov 4, 2026 close and checked automatically against the figures on this page.

ORIX price vs fair value

$39.33$37.04Nov ’25May ’26Nov ’26
Close $37.04200-day averageGekko Fair Value $39.33

ORIX quick facts

Market cap
$41.12B
P/E ratio
10.2
Forward P/E
14.2
EPS, TTM
$3.60
Revenue, TTM
$3.46T
Profit margin
17.9%
Dividend yield
2.69%
Beta
0.75
Volume
187,524 avg 209,857
1-year return
+51.2%
Typical daily move
±1.5%
Typical 20-day move
±4.8%
50-day average
$38.10
200-day average
$36.16
Next earnings
Nov 9
Shares outstanding
1.08B
52-week range
$24.31$42.39

ORIX swing-trade checklist

ORIX scores 3 supportive, 1 mixed and 1 headwind across the 5 checklist items with data.

Six things swing traders check before a 20-day hold, read from the latest data.

3 supportive1 mixed1 headwind

  • Trendmixed

    Averages disagree

    Close $37.04 sits between the 50-day ($38.10) and 200-day ($36.16) averages, or the averages disagree.

    See the chart
  • GekkoIndexsupportive

    61.5, Accumulation

    Reading 61.5 is in the Accumulation zone.

    See the GekkoIndex
  • Fair valuesupportive

    5.8% below

    Price is 5.8% below Gekko Fair Value (more than 5% below).

    See fair value
  • Smart moneyno data

    No data

    No insider, Congress or unusual options activity in the window.

    See smart money
  • Earnings riskheadwind

    Reports in 4 days

    Reports on Nov 9, 2026, 4 days away — inside a typical 20-trading-day hold.

    See earnings
  • Seasonalitysupportive

    +5.8% on average

    From this point in the calendar, the next 20 trading days averaged +5.8% over 5 years, rising in 4 of them.

    See seasonality

A description of current data, not a recommendation. How this page works

ORIX stock chart and price history

ORIX closed at $37.04 on Nov 4, 2026, +51.2% over the past year, inside a 52-week range of $24.31 to $42.39.

Close50-day average200-day averageVolume
ORIX share price, past year, with 50-day and 200-day moving averages and volume$25$30$35$40DecJan 2026FebMarAprMayJunJulAugSepOct37.04

Use the left and right arrow keys to read daily values.

Performance Breakdown

1 month
−0.3%
3 months
−10.3%
6 months
+8.6%
1 year
+51.2%
The full IX chart adds GekkoIndex, insider, options, Congress and hedge fund markers, plus TrendCandles™.Open IX in Gekko

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About ORIX

ORIX operates as a broad-based financial services group offering leasing, lending, investment and asset management across a wide range of markets. It provides corporate financing and equipment leasing covering vehicles, electronic measuring devices and ICT equipment, alongside life insurance and environmental and energy related offerings. The company is also active in real estate, handling development, leasing, management and brokerage of residential, commercial and facility properties, as well as aircraft and ship leasing and financing.

Its activities are organised into distinct segments spanning corporate finance and leasing, real estate, private equity and concession projects, environment and energy, insurance, banking and credit, and aircraft and ships. Additional regional units in the United States, Europe, Asia and Australia deliver financial, investment and asset management services tailored to each market. Together these segments serve corporate, institutional and individual customers through channels that include agents, banking partners and direct online and in-person sales.

ORIX shares trade under the ticker IX.

Sector
Finance
Website
orix.co.jp

ORIX GekkoIndex: the smart money zone

ORIX’s GekkoIndex — Gekko’s 0 to 100 smart money score — reads 61.5, in the Accumulation zone, up 1.2 points over five sessions.

010061.5Accumulation

Up 1.2 points over five sessions.

Reading for Nov 4, 2026

What followed past readings in each zone

ZoneReadings5 days10 days20 days50 days
Buying27+1.0%+2.3%+2.1%+6.3%
Accumulation (current zone)177+0.2%+0.8%+2.8%+8.8%
Neutral408+0.6%+1.1%+2.0%+4.6%
Distribution38−0.1%−0.3%−1.3%+1.8%
Selling0Not available

Average IX share-price change over the trading days after each daily reading in its GekkoIndex history. Across every stock Gekko tracks, Accumulation readings averaged +2.0% over 20 days. Past behaviour doesn’t guarantee future results.

Accumulation zone: Institutional interest building. About the five zones →

See every daily GekkoIndex reading plotted over the IX price, zone by zone.Track IX in Gekko

Is ORIX stock overvalued? Gekko Fair Value

ORIX trades 5.8% below Gekko Fair Value of $39.33, so the shares are undervalued on Gekko’s estimate.

Gekko’s own estimate of what ORIX shares are worth, recalculated every trading day.

$39.33

Gekko Fair Value, Nov 4, 2026

5.8% Undervalued

At the end of Aug 2026 the price was 4.3% below the estimate.

Gekko Fair ValueShare price, month end
$39$36Aug 2026SepOctNov 2026

How Gekko Fair Value works →

Gekko Fair Value on every chart, with the gap to price updating daily.Open IX in Gekko

ORIX insider and Congress trading

No open-market insider purchases were filed for ORIX, and no Congress trades were disclosed, in the last 90 days.

Plus buybacks, unusual options and fund positions, each dated to when it became public.

Insider buying last 90 days

No open-market insider purchases were filed for IX in the last 90 days.

From Form 4 filings, dated to when each was filed.

Every IX insider filing, plotted on the chart in Gekko.Open IX in Gekko

Congress trades last 90 days

No trades in IX were disclosed by members of Congress in the last 90 days.

From congressional disclosures, which report amounts as ranges.

Congress disclosures for IX, plotted on the chart in Gekko.Open IX in Gekko

ORIX earnings: next date and track record

ORIX reports on Nov 9, 2026 (4 days away), and beat the EPS estimate in 6 of its last 8 reports.

6 of 8reports beat the EPS estimate
±3.6%average move across the report
5 of 8reports followed by a gain

Share-price move across each report

+6.1%May ’24+3.9%Aug ’24−0.5%Nov ’24−0.1%Feb ’25−0.2%May ’25+6.2%Aug ’25+2.3%Nov ’25+9.3%Feb ’26

Last earnings call, Feb 9, 2026 AI summary

What they said
ORIX reported strong results for the nine months ended Dec 31, 2025: net income JPY 389.7bn (up JPY 117.9bn YoY), highest third-quarter cumulative net profit, and pretax profits JPY 567.7bn (up JPY 184.3bn YoY). All three business categories—Finance, Operations and Investments—grew, led by Investments (including significant realized and valuation gains such as Greenko and gains tied to ORIX USA/ORIX Capital Partners investees). Management expanded the share buyback program from JPY 100bn to JPY 150bn and completed JPY 128.1bn (85%) by end-January. The call highlighted balance-sheet changes driven by consolidation of Hilco Global, higher deposits at ORIX Bank, new bond issuance, and a JPY 234bn reduction in insurance contract liabilities driven by higher discount rates. Management emphasized continued diligence: revisiting business plans (including for Hilco and OCU), continued scrutiny of investments and risk exposure, potential provisioning for credit/legacy asset risks, and cautious capital deployment while targeting improved capital efficiency and ROE.
Guidance
Management reiterated the revised full-year net income forecast of JPY 440 billion (they achieved ~89% of that in 9 months). They expanded the share buyback program from JPY 100bn to JPY 150bn and had completed JPY 128.1bn by end-January. No other formal upward guidance or numerical FY '27+ forecasts were issued; management said they will revisit and disclose business/financial plans at the fiscal-year-end results.
Risks flagged
Management cited multiple risk factors: potential credit costs (including U.S. mortgage/loan-related exposures), legacy asset provisioning, macro/trade/tariff uncertainty, rising long-term interest rates affecting real estate/long-duration liabilities, uncertainty around Elawan project timing and goodwill, and broader investment risk prompting conservative deployment. They also noted fee-pressure in asset management and competitive pressure in advisory/index products.
ReportedEPSSurpriseRevenueSurpriseMove
Feb 9, 2026$0.69
est $0.67
+3.1%$5.48B
est $4.39B
+24.6%+9.3%
Nov 12, 2025$0.99
est $0.57
+73.1%$5.30B
est $4.85B
+9.4%+2.3%
Aug 7, 2025$0.65
est $0.54
+21.0%$5.31B
est $5.05B
+5.0%+6.2%
May 12, 2025$2.42
est $0.66
+266.7%$4.95B
est $5.41B
−8.5%−0.2%
Feb 10, 2025$0.51
est $0.53
−3.8%$4.78B
est $4.97B
−3.9%−0.1%
Nov 8, 2024$0.55
est $0.50
+10.0%$4.68B
est $4.84B
−3.3%−0.5%
Aug 5, 2024$2.42
est $2.61
−7.5%$4.41B
est $4.82B
−8.4%+3.9%
May 8, 2024$3.69
est $2.77
+33.3%$5.12B
est $6.25B
−18.1%+6.1%

“Move” is the close of the first session after the report compared with the close of the last session before it, so it reads the same whether the company reported before the open or after the close.

ORIX stock forecast and analyst price targets

Analysts’ average 12-month price target for ORIX is $41.09, +10.9% from the last close, from 1 firm rating the stock in the last 90 days.

$41.09consensus 12-month target, +10.9% from the last close
Buy0
Hold1
Sell0

Each firm’s latest rating in the last 90 days: 1 firm.

Latest analyst actions

DateFirmRatingTargetvs price
Aug 10Bank of America SecuritiesHold, reiterated——
+2.8%average 20-day move after past Accumulation readings
+5.8%average move over the next 20 trading days in the last 5 years
±1.5%typical daily move, from the 14-day average range

Gekko doesn’t publish price predictions. These are analyst targets and historical base rates, which don’t guarantee future results.

ORIX seasonality: the next 20 trading days

Over the next 20 trading days from Nov 4, ORIX averaged +5.8% across the last 5 years, rising in 4 of them.

Next 20 trading days, by year

−1.1%2021+5.7%2022+1.3%2023+9.6%2024+13.3%2025

Average move and hit rate

WindowAverageYears higher
Next 5 trading days+2.3%4 of 5
Next 10 trading days+1.9%5 of 5
Next 15 trading days+4.2%4 of 5
Next 20 trading days+5.8%4 of 5
Next 30 trading days+4.9%4 of 5

For scale, IX’s typical 20-trading-day move in either direction is about 4.8%.

ORIX market cap and key statistics

ORIX’s market cap is $41.12B, with a P/E ratio of 10.2 and revenue of $3.46T over the last twelve months.

Valuation

Market cap
$41.12B
P/E ratio
10.2
Forward P/E
14.2
EPS, TTM
$3.60
Gekko Fair Value
$39.33

Trading

Volume
187,524
Avg volume, 20 days
209,857
52-week high
$42.39
52-week low
$24.31
Shares outstanding
1.08B

Financials

Revenue, TTM
$3.46T
Profit margin
17.9%
Return on equity
14%
Quarterly earnings growth, YoY
+170.6%

Risk and income

Beta
0.75
Typical daily move
±1.5%
Typical 20-day move
±4.8%
Dividend yield
2.69%

ORIX stock news this week

Coverage of ORIX this week reads positive: 4 positive, 1 neutral and 1 negative headlines.

News sentiment positive

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ORIX stock FAQ

What is ORIX’s market cap?

ORIX’s market cap is $41.12B at the Nov 4, 2026 close of $37.04, with 1.08B shares outstanding. The shares trade on a P/E ratio of 10.2.

What is the ORIX stock forecast?

The consensus analyst 12-month price target for ORIX is $41.09, +10.9% from the last close. Of the 1 firm that rated the stock in the last 90 days, 0 rate it a buy, 1 a hold and 0 a sell. Gekko doesn’t publish price predictions of its own.

Is ORIX stock overvalued or undervalued?

On Gekko’s estimate ORIX is undervalued: the Nov 4, 2026 close of $37.04 is 5.8% below Gekko Fair Value of $39.33. Gekko Fair Value is recalculated every trading day, and a gap inside 5% either way counts as about fair value.

When does ORIX report earnings next?

ORIX is expected to report on Nov 9, 2026 (4 days away). Analysts expect earnings of $1.55 per share on revenue of $9.20B. ORIX beat the earnings estimate in 6 of its last 8 reports, moving 3.6% on average across the report.

What is ORIX’s 52-week high and low?

ORIX’s 52-week high is $42.39 and its 52-week low is $24.31; it closed at $37.04 on Nov 4, 2026, +51.2% over the past year.

Is ORIX stock a buy right now?

Gekko describes the data; it does not make buy or sell recommendations. On the swing-trade checklist, 3 of the 5 items with data read as supportive (gekkoindex, fair value and seasonality), 1 as mixed (trend) and 1 as a headwind (earnings risk). The checklist is a description of current data, not a recommendation.

How this page works

During US trading hours the price at the top of the page is a delayed quote, refreshed every 15 minutes; everything else is rebuilt after each US market close. The GekkoIndex, Gekko Fair Value and the checklist are Gekko’s own, and the Gekko Brief is written by AI from this page’s data and checked against it before it is published. How Gekko’s data works →

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