Essential Properties Realty Trust (EPRT) Stock Analysis & Forecast

Sep 28 close

$26.40−0.13 (−0.5%)

Gekko Brief

AI summary

This week EPRT confirmed it will report third-quarter 2026 results on October 21, 2026, with the call the following day, and separately amended its revolving credit facility to raise borrowing capacity while lowering borrowing costs, a move framed as supporting acquisition funding without heavy reliance on new equity. The stock also touched a 52-week low of $26.46, prompting commentary on valuation, including a P/E of 21.9x and discussion of whether the earnings discount is sustainable. Executive leadership changes, including a new Chief Investment Officer, and a declared quarterly dividend of US$0.32 per share payable in October 2026 were also noted.

EPRT closed at $26.40, down 0.5%, sitting below both its 50-day ($30.03) and 200-day ($30.95) moving averages, with the 52-week range spanning $26.19 to $34.73. The GekkoIndex reads 71.7, placing the stock in the Buying zone, while the gap to Gekko Fair Value of $47.52 stands at -44.4%.

The next earnings date falls on 28 October 2026, after the close, 29 days out and beyond a typical 20-trading-day holding window; the prior report on 22 July 2026 showed EPS of $0.34 against a $0.33 estimate with a -3.5% reaction. No insider, Congress or unusual options activity appears in the current windows. Seasonally, the next 20 trading days have averaged +2.3% over 5 years, rising in 3 of them, a pattern worth noting alongside the wider gap to fair value.

Written by AI and checked automatically against the figures on this page. Generated Sep 29, 2026 from the data above.

Essential Properties Realty Trust price vs fair value

▲$47.52$26.40Sep ’25Mar ’26Sep ’26
Close $26.40200-day averageGekko Fair Value $47.52

Essential Properties Realty Trust quick facts

Market cap
$5.71B
P/E ratio
20.6
Forward P/E
22.8
EPS, TTM
$1.29
Revenue, TTM
$615.5M
Profit margin
43.5%
Dividend yield
4.68%
Beta
0.87
Volume
2.01M avg 2.18M
1-year return
−10.4%
Typical daily move
±2.4%
Typical 20-day move
±3.7%
50-day average
$30.03
200-day average
$30.95
Next earnings
Oct 28 after close
Shares outstanding
216.3M
52-week range
$26.19$34.73

Essential Properties Realty Trust swing-trade checklist

Essential Properties Realty Trust scores 4 supportive, 0 mixed and 1 headwind across the 5 checklist items with data.

Six things swing traders check before a 20-day hold, read from the latest data.

4 supportive0 mixed1 headwind

  • Trendheadwind

    Below 50 and 200-day

    Close $26.40 is below the 50-day ($30.03) and 200-day ($30.95) averages, and the 50-day is below the 200-day.

    See the chart
  • GekkoIndexsupportive

    71.7, Buying

    Reading 71.7 is in the Buying zone.

    See the GekkoIndex
  • Fair valuesupportive

    44.4% below

    Price is 44.4% below Gekko Fair Value (more than 5% below).

    See fair value
  • Smart moneyno data

    No data

    No insider, Congress or unusual options activity in the window.

    See smart money
  • Earnings risksupportive

    Reports in 29 days

    Next report Oct 28, 2026, 29 days away — outside a typical 20-trading-day hold.

    See earnings
  • Seasonalitysupportive

    +2.3% on average

    From this point in the calendar, the next 20 trading days averaged +2.3% over 5 years, rising in 3 of them.

    See seasonality

A description of current data, not a recommendation. How this page works

Essential Properties Realty Trust stock chart and price history

Essential Properties Realty Trust closed at $26.40 on Sep 28, 2026, −10.4% over the past year, inside a 52-week range of $26.19 to $34.73.

Close50-day average200-day averageVolume
Essential Properties Realty Trust share price, past year, with 50-day and 200-day moving averages and volume$28$30$32$34NovDecJan 2026FebMarAprMayJunJulAugSep26.40

Use the left and right arrow keys to read daily values.

Performance Breakdown

1 month
−13.0%
3 months
−13.5%
6 months
−13.1%
1 year
−10.4%
The full EPRT chart adds GekkoIndex, insider, options, Congress and hedge fund markers, plus TrendCandles™.Open EPRT in Gekko

Follow Essential Properties Realty Trust through every session

Put EPRT on a Gekko watchlist and see its GekkoIndex, Gekko Fair Value and smart money signals update on the chart as they change.

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About Essential Properties Realty Trust

Essential Properties Realty Trust buys, holds, and manages standalone commercial buildings across the United States, each occupied by a single business. It leases these sites out under long-term contracts, and its tenants come from a wide mix of trades, including restaurants, car washes and auto repair shops, medical and dental offices, convenience stores, equipment rental outlets, entertainment businesses, childcare centers, grocery stores, and fitness clubs. By the end of 2021 the company held 1,451 such properties.

The company is structured as a real estate investment trust for federal tax purposes, meaning it avoids corporate income tax so long as it pays out at least 90 percent of its taxable earnings to shareholders as dividends. Its income comes from the rent collected across this varied group of mid-sized business tenants rather than from any single industry.

Essential Properties Realty Trust was established in 2016 and is headquartered in Princeton, New Jersey. Its shares trade under the ticker EPRT.

Sector
Finance
Website
essentialproperties.com

Essential Properties Realty Trust GekkoIndex: the smart money zone

Essential Properties Realty Trust’s GekkoIndex — Gekko’s 0 to 100 smart money score — reads 71.7, in the Buying zone, down 10.8 points over five sessions.

010071.7Buying

Down 10.8 points over five sessions.

Reading for Sep 28, 2026

What followed past readings in each zone

ZoneReadings5 days10 days20 days50 days
Buying (current zone)16−0.7%+1.6%+4.1%+1.4%
Accumulation222+0.6%+0.9%+1.2%+2.8%
Neutral346−0.2%−0.2%+0.2%+0.7%
Distribution40+0.1%−1.0%−2.3%+0.5%
Selling1Too few readings yet

Average EPRT share-price change over the trading days after each daily reading in its GekkoIndex history. Across every stock Gekko tracks, Buying readings averaged +3.2% over 20 days. Past behaviour doesn’t guarantee future results.

Buying zone: Smart money likely accumulating heavily. About the five zones →

See every daily GekkoIndex reading plotted over the EPRT price, zone by zone.Track EPRT in Gekko

Is Essential Properties Realty Trust stock overvalued? Gekko Fair Value

Essential Properties Realty Trust trades 44.4% below Gekko Fair Value of $47.52, so the shares are undervalued on Gekko’s estimate.

Gekko’s own estimate of what Essential Properties Realty Trust shares are worth, recalculated every trading day.

$47.52

Gekko Fair Value, Sep 29, 2026

44.4% Undervalued

How Gekko Fair Value works →

Gekko Fair Value on every chart, with the gap to price updating daily.Open EPRT in Gekko

Essential Properties Realty Trust insider and Congress trading

No open-market insider purchases were filed for Essential Properties Realty Trust, and no Congress trades were disclosed, in the last 90 days.

Plus buybacks, unusual options and fund positions, each dated to when it became public.

Insider buying last 90 days

No open-market insider purchases were filed for EPRT in the last 90 days.

From Form 4 filings, dated to when each was filed.

Every EPRT insider filing, plotted on the chart in Gekko.Open EPRT in Gekko

Congress trades last 90 days

No trades in EPRT were disclosed by members of Congress in the last 90 days.

From congressional disclosures, which report amounts as ranges.

Congress disclosures for EPRT, plotted on the chart in Gekko.Open EPRT in Gekko

Buybacks

Essential Properties Realty Trust has been buying back its own shares.

Bought back, quarter ended Dec 31, 2024
$1K
As a share of market cap
0.00%

From company filings.

Essential Properties Realty Trust earnings: next date and track record

Essential Properties Realty Trust reports on Oct 28, 2026, after the close (29 days away), and beat the EPS estimate in 2 of its last 8 reports.

2 of 8reports beat the EPS estimate
±1.8%average move across the report
1 of 8reports followed by a gain

Share-price move across each report

−1.4%Oct ’24−0.3%Feb ’25−2.2%Apr ’25−1.0%Jul ’25+0.7%Oct ’25−0.8%Feb ’26−4.4%Apr ’26−3.5%Jul ’26

Last earnings call, Jul 22, 2026 AI summary

What they said
EPRT reported Q2 2026 GAAP net income of $74.5M and AFFO of $110.1M, deploying $332M in investments at a 7.8% average initial cash yield. Portfolio metrics remained strong with 99.6% occupancy, 3.5x rent coverage, and 1.5% same-store rent growth. Leverage stood at 3.5x with $1.7B liquidity. The company holds 2,493 properties across 500+ tenants with a 14-year weighted average lease term.
Guidance
EPRT raised 2026 AFFO per share guidance to $2.01-$2.05, implying 7-8% growth at midpoint/high end. Investment volume guidance increased to $1.2B-$1.5B. Capital needs are largely addressed through 2026 and into 2027.
ReportedEPSSurpriseRevenueSurpriseMove
Jul 22, 2026$0.34
est $0.33
+2.5%$151.1M
est $155.9M
−3.1%−3.5%
Apr 22, 2026$0.28
est $0.32
−12.5%$149.4M
est $147.9M
+1.0%−4.4%
Feb 11, 2026$0.34
est $0.33
+3.6%$140.1M
est $142.6M
−1.8%−0.8%
Oct 22, 2025$0.33
est $0.48
−31.2%$144.9M
est $149.4M
−3.0%+0.7%
Jul 23, 2025$0.32
est $0.47
−31.9%$137.1M
est $138.1M
−0.7%−1.0%
Apr 23, 2025$0.29
est $0.46
−37.0%$129.4M
est $124.2M
+4.2%−2.2%
Feb 12, 2025$0.30
est $0.31
−3.2%$119.7M
est $121.2M
−1.3%−0.3%
Oct 23, 2024$0.27
est $0.31
−12.9%$118.0M
est $119.1M
−1.0%−1.4%

“Move” is the close of the first session after the report compared with the close of the last session before it, so it reads the same whether the company reported before the open or after the close.

Essential Properties Realty Trust stock forecast and analyst price targets

Analysts’ average 12-month price target for Essential Properties Realty Trust is $36.40, +37.9% from the last close, from 10 firms rating the stock in the last 90 days.

$36.40consensus 12-month target, +37.9% from the last close
Low $30High $40
Buy10
Hold0
Sell0

Each firm’s latest rating in the last 90 days: 10 firms.

Latest analyst actions

DateFirmRatingTargetvs price
Sep 24ScotiabankBuy, maintained$30+13.6%
Sep 23Stifel NicolausBuy, maintained$36+36.4%
Sep 21Evercore ISIBuy, maintained$37+40.2%
Sep 16Mizuho SecuritiesBuy, maintained$30+13.6%
Sep 14Stifel NicolausBuy, maintained$36+36.4%
+4.1%average 20-day move after past Buying readings
+2.3%average move over the next 20 trading days in the last 5 years
±2.4%typical daily move, from the 14-day average range

Gekko doesn’t publish price predictions. These are analyst targets and historical base rates, which don’t guarantee future results.

Essential Properties Realty Trust seasonality: the next 20 trading days

Over the next 20 trading days from Sep 29, Essential Properties Realty Trust averaged +2.3% across the last 5 years, rising in 3 of them.

Next 20 trading days, by year

+5.6%2021+8.4%2022−2.5%2023−4.8%2024+4.5%2025

Average move and hit rate

WindowAverageYears higher
Next 5 trading days−0.6%2 of 5
Next 10 trading days0.0%2 of 5
Next 15 trading days+1.5%3 of 5
Next 20 trading days+2.3%3 of 5
Next 30 trading days+5.1%4 of 5

For scale, EPRT’s typical 20-trading-day move in either direction is about 3.7%.

Essential Properties Realty Trust market cap and key statistics

Essential Properties Realty Trust’s market cap is $5.71B, with a P/E ratio of 20.6 and revenue of $615.5M over the last twelve months.

Valuation

Market cap
$5.71B
P/E ratio
20.6
Forward P/E
22.8
EPS, TTM
$1.29
Gekko Fair Value
$47.52

Trading

Volume
2.01M
Avg volume, 20 days
2.18M
52-week high
$34.73
52-week low
$26.19
Shares outstanding
216.3M

Financials

Revenue, TTM
$615.5M
Profit margin
43.5%
Return on equity
6.5%
Quarterly earnings growth, YoY
+7.5%

Risk and income

Beta
0.87
Typical daily move
±2.4%
Typical 20-day move
±3.7%
Dividend yield
4.68%

Essential Properties Realty Trust stock news this week

Coverage of Essential Properties Realty Trust this week reads positive: 4 positive, 1 neutral and 0 negative headlines.

News sentiment positive

More stocks

In the Buying zone today

Reporting earnings this week

Popular on Gekko

Essential Properties Realty Trust stock FAQ

What is Essential Properties Realty Trust’s market cap?

Essential Properties Realty Trust’s market cap is $5.71B at the Sep 28, 2026 close of $26.40, with 216.3M shares outstanding. The shares trade on a P/E ratio of 20.6.

What is the Essential Properties Realty Trust stock forecast?

The consensus analyst 12-month price target for Essential Properties Realty Trust is $36.40, +37.9% from the last close. Of the 10 firms that rated the stock in the last 90 days, 10 rate it a buy, 0 a hold and 0 a sell. Gekko doesn’t publish price predictions of its own.

Is Essential Properties Realty Trust stock overvalued or undervalued?

On Gekko’s estimate Essential Properties Realty Trust is undervalued: the Sep 28, 2026 close of $26.40 is 44.4% below Gekko Fair Value of $47.52. Gekko Fair Value is recalculated every trading day, and a gap inside 5% either way counts as about fair value.

When does Essential Properties Realty Trust report earnings next?

Essential Properties Realty Trust is expected to report on Oct 28, 2026, after the market closes (29 days away). Analysts expect earnings of $0.32 per share on revenue of $158.1M. Essential Properties Realty Trust beat the earnings estimate in 2 of its last 8 reports, moving 1.8% on average across the report.

What is Essential Properties Realty Trust’s 52-week high and low?

Essential Properties Realty Trust’s 52-week high is $34.73 and its 52-week low is $26.19; it closed at $26.40 on Sep 28, 2026, −10.4% over the past year. Over the last five years the shares peaked at $34.88 on Nov 29, 2024.

Is Essential Properties Realty Trust stock a buy right now?

Gekko describes the data; it does not make buy or sell recommendations. On the swing-trade checklist, 4 of the 5 items with data read as supportive (gekkoindex, fair value, earnings risk and seasonality) and 1 as a headwind (trend). The checklist is a description of current data, not a recommendation.

How this page works

During US trading hours the price at the top of the page is a delayed quote, refreshed every 15 minutes; everything else is rebuilt after each US market close. The GekkoIndex, Gekko Fair Value and the checklist are Gekko’s own, and the Gekko Brief is written by AI from this page’s data and checked against it before it is published. How Gekko’s data works →

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