Embraer (EMBJ) Stock Analysis & Forecast

Sep 28 close

$76.53−2.10 (−2.7%)

Gekko Brief

AI summary

Embraer's week centers on a record $34.5 billion backlog, which the company says provides clear visibility into future production for its 2026 outlook. Alongside this, reports emerged that Japan Airlines is leaning toward Embraer over Airbus for an order of approximately 20 regional jets, with a final decision expected as soon as October, as the airline weighs Embraer's E2 against Airbus's A220. Coverage also compared Embraer to RTX on value grounds and noted momentum and growth characteristics in the stock.

Shares closed at $76.53, down 2.7% on the day, though still above both the 50-day average of $72.98 and the 200-day average of $66.87, with the 50-day above the 200-day. The GekkoIndex reads 50.5, placing it in the Neutral zone, down 0.9 over five days. Price sits 5.5% below Gekko Fair Value of $80.96.

The next earnings date is 10 November 2026, 42 days out and beyond a typical 20-trading-day hold. No insider, Congress, or unusual options activity appears in the respective 90-day and 30-day windows. Seasonally, the next 20 trading days have averaged a 1.8% return over 5 years, rising in 3 of them. Consensus among 6 firms stands at 5 buy and 1 hold ratings, with a consensus target of $92.93.

Written by AI and checked automatically against the figures on this page. Generated Sep 29, 2026 from the data above.

Embraer price vs fair value

$80.96$76.53Sep ’25Mar ’26Sep ’26
Close $76.53200-day averageGekko Fair Value $80.96

Embraer quick facts

Market cap
$14.04B
P/E ratio
31.8
Forward P/E
19.9
EPS, TTM
$2.47
Revenue, TTM
$44.13B
Profit margin
5.3%
Dividend yield
1.20%
Beta
0.69
Volume
1.09M avg 1.13M
1-year return
+27.6%
Typical daily move
±3.1%
Typical 20-day move
±8.5%
50-day average
$72.98
200-day average
$66.87
Next earnings
Nov 10 before open
Shares outstanding
178.0M
52-week range
$53.56$80.75

Embraer swing-trade checklist

Embraer scores 4 supportive, 1 mixed and 0 headwinds across the 5 checklist items with data.

Six things swing traders check before a 20-day hold, read from the latest data.

4 supportive1 mixed0 headwinds

  • Trendsupportive

    Above 50 and 200-day

    Close $76.53 is above the 50-day ($72.98) and 200-day ($66.87) averages, and the 50-day is above the 200-day.

    See the chart
  • GekkoIndexmixed

    50.5, Neutral

    Reading 50.5 is in the Neutral zone.

    See the GekkoIndex
  • Fair valuesupportive

    5.5% below

    Price is 5.5% below Gekko Fair Value (more than 5% below).

    See fair value
  • Smart moneyno data

    No data

    No insider, Congress or unusual options activity in the window.

    See smart money
  • Earnings risksupportive

    Reports in 42 days

    Next report Nov 10, 2026, 42 days away — outside a typical 20-trading-day hold.

    See earnings
  • Seasonalitysupportive

    +1.8% on average

    From this point in the calendar, the next 20 trading days averaged +1.8% over 5 years, rising in 3 of them.

    See seasonality

A description of current data, not a recommendation. How this page works

Embraer stock chart and price history

Embraer closed at $76.53 on Sep 28, 2026, +27.6% over the past year, inside a 52-week range of $53.56 to $80.75.

Close50-day average200-day averageVolume
Embraer share price, past year, with 50-day and 200-day moving averages and volume$50$60$70$80NovDecJan 2026FebMarAprMayJunJulAugSep76.53

Use the left and right arrow keys to read daily values.

Performance Breakdown

1 month
+1.4%
3 months
+23.1%
6 months
+36.7%
1 year
+27.6%
The full EMBJ chart adds GekkoIndex, insider, options, Congress and hedge fund markers, plus TrendCandles™.Open EMBJ in Gekko

Follow Embraer through every session

Put EMBJ on a Gekko watchlist and see its GekkoIndex, Gekko Fair Value and smart money signals update on the chart as they change.

Track EMBJ in GekkoFree for 7 days. No credit card required.

About Embraer

Embraer designs, builds, and sells aircraft along with related parts, serving commercial airlines, defense and security customers, and buyers of executive jets. It is recognized for producing regional and commercial jets used in passenger aviation, alongside aircraft built for defense and government use.

The company is structured into distinct areas of business. One handles the development and sale of commercial jets and supports regional carriers and leasing operations. Another focuses on defense and security aircraft, along with related products such as satellites and communication systems. A separate unit builds and sells executive jets, while another provides after-sale support and maintenance solutions for aircraft made by Embraer and by other manufacturers, covering commercial, executive, and defense fleets. A further segment supplies structural parts and hydraulic systems and produces agricultural sprayers.

Embraer was founded by Ozires Silva on August 19, 1969, and is based in São Paulo, Brazil. Its shares trade under the ticker EMBJ.

Sector
Electronic technology
Website
embraer.com

Embraer GekkoIndex: the smart money zone

Embraer’s GekkoIndex — Gekko’s 0 to 100 smart money score — reads 50.5, in the Neutral zone, down 0.9 points over five sessions.

010050.5Neutral

Down 0.9 points over five sessions.

Reading for Sep 28, 2026

What followed past readings in each zone

ZoneReadings5 days10 days20 days50 days
Buying33+2.8%+5.8%+15.0%+13.7%
Accumulation113+1.6%+4.6%+8.3%+17.1%
Neutral (current zone)374+1.1%+1.8%+4.3%+10.1%
Distribution91+0.2%−0.6%−3.9%−0.2%
Selling14−3.2%−3.3%−6.3%−1.5%

Average EMBJ share-price change over the trading days after each daily reading in its GekkoIndex history. Across every stock Gekko tracks, Neutral readings averaged +1.1% over 20 days. Past behaviour doesn’t guarantee future results.

Neutral zone: No clear directional signal. About the five zones →

See every daily GekkoIndex reading plotted over the EMBJ price, zone by zone.Track EMBJ in Gekko

Is Embraer stock overvalued? Gekko Fair Value

Embraer trades 5.5% below Gekko Fair Value of $80.96, so the shares are undervalued on Gekko’s estimate.

Gekko’s own estimate of what Embraer shares are worth, recalculated every trading day.

$80.96

Gekko Fair Value, Sep 29, 2026

5.5% Undervalued

How Gekko Fair Value works →

Gekko Fair Value on every chart, with the gap to price updating daily.Open EMBJ in Gekko

Embraer insider and Congress trading

No open-market insider purchases were filed for Embraer, and no Congress trades were disclosed, in the last 90 days.

Plus buybacks, unusual options and fund positions, each dated to when it became public.

Insider buying last 90 days

No open-market insider purchases were filed for EMBJ in the last 90 days.

From Form 4 filings, dated to when each was filed.

Every EMBJ insider filing, plotted on the chart in Gekko.Open EMBJ in Gekko

Congress trades last 90 days

No trades in EMBJ were disclosed by members of Congress in the last 90 days.

From congressional disclosures, which report amounts as ranges.

Congress disclosures for EMBJ, plotted on the chart in Gekko.Open EMBJ in Gekko

Buybacks

Embraer has been buying back its own shares.

Bought back, quarter ended Mar 31, 2026
$182.2M
As a share of market cap
1.30%

From company filings.

Hedge funds and billionaires quarter ended Jun 30

0of the funds Gekko tracks hold EMBJ.

0added0opened0trimmed1sold out
Which funds are on each side, name by name.Unlock in Gekko

Embraer earnings: next date and track record

Embraer reports on Nov 10, 2026, before the open (42 days away), and beat the EPS estimate in 6 of its last 8 reports.

6 of 8reports beat the EPS estimate
±5%average move across the report
3 of 8reports followed by a gain

Share-price move across each report

+10.4%Nov ’24+11.1%Feb ’25+0.9%May ’25−1.2%Aug ’25−0.1%Nov ’25−3.1%Mar ’26−10.9%May ’26−2.2%Aug ’26

Last earnings call, Aug 10, 2026 AI summary

What they said
Embraer reported a strong Q2 2026 with record second-quarter revenue, the highest Q2 deliveries in 16 years, and a consecutive seventh quarterly backlog high. Management highlighted broad strength across Commercial Aviation, Executive Aviation, Defense & Security, and Services & Support driven by sales execution, production ramp-up, and efficiency (Growficiency) initiatives. Key commercial wins included 15 E195-E2 orders from Azorra and the E2 program surpassing 500 firm orders; in defense, the UAE ordered 10 C-390s (options for 10 more) and Colombia became a new KC-390 customer; executive aviation posted record revenues and deliveries along with triple certification for Praetor 500E/600E. Service agreements expanded recurring revenue (e.g., Jazz Aviation, Brazilian Air Force). The company delivered 65 aircraft in Q2 (20 commercial, 45 executive) and raised its 2026 guidance supported by tariff refunds, an extraordinary tax credit, and enterprise efficiency improvements. Management reiterated confidence in growth through 2030 capacity planning (120-130 commercial jets/year, 200 executive/year, 10 KC/year in Brazil) and discussed Eve eVTOL progress toward entry into service by end-2028.
Guidance
Management raised 2026 guidance (no detailed numeric revision provided in the call transcript). They cited a $4 million improvement to business outlook contributing to adjusted EBIT margin guidance and noted first-half results represent ~44% of 2026 revenue midpoint. No explicit full-year numeric guidance was disclosed in the transcript beyond the statement that guidance was raised.
Risks flagged
Supplier delivery delays affecting production leveling (noted in executive aviation); historical U.S. import tariffs (mostly refunded) and ongoing indirect tariff impacts (cited ~$12 million annually affecting services); Eve eVTOL development and certification risk (entry into service targeted by end-2028 but milestones remain); geopolitical uncertainty that could affect sales timing/pricing (though defense demand has been supported); reliance on continued operational efficiency and execution to realize margin targets.
ReportedEPSSurpriseRevenueSurpriseMove
Aug 10, 2026$1.22
est $0.61
+100.0%$2.24B
est $2.01B
+11.1%−2.2%
May 8, 2026$0.15
est $0.23
−33.2%$1.45B
est $1.41B
+2.6%−10.9%
Mar 6, 2026$0.84
est $0.70
+19.4%$2.65B
est $2.54B
+4.2%−3.1%
Nov 4, 2025$0.64
est $0.48
+32.3%$2.04B
est $1.93B
+5.5%−0.1%
Aug 5, 2025$0.43
est $0.39
+9.8%——−1.2%
May 6, 2025$0.40
est −$0.02
+2,552.1%$1.81B
est $1.11B
+63.2%+0.9%
Feb 27, 2025$0.25
est $0.49
−49.3%$2.31B
est $2.23B
+3.8%+11.1%
Nov 8, 2024$0.97
est $0.28
+248.3%$1.69B
est $1.58B
+7.2%+10.4%

“Move” is the close of the first session after the report compared with the close of the last session before it, so it reads the same whether the company reported before the open or after the close.

Embraer stock forecast and analyst price targets

Analysts’ average 12-month price target for Embraer is $92.93, +21.4% from the last close, from 6 firms rating the stock in the last 90 days.

$92.93consensus 12-month target, +21.4% from the last close
Low $80High $104
Buy5
Hold1
Sell0

Each firm’s latest rating in the last 90 days: 6 firms.

Latest analyst actions

DateFirmRatingTargetvs price
Aug 27UBSHold, reiterated$80+4.5%
Aug 27UBSHold, maintained$80+4.5%
Aug 18Bank of America SecuritiesBuy, maintained——
Aug 17J.P. MorganBuy, maintained$104+35.9%
Aug 13Goldman SachsBuy, reiterated$90+17.6%
+4.3%average 20-day move after past Neutral readings
+1.8%average move over the next 20 trading days in the last 5 years
±3.1%typical daily move, from the 14-day average range

Gekko doesn’t publish price predictions. These are analyst targets and historical base rates, which don’t guarantee future results.

Embraer seasonality: the next 20 trading days

Over the next 20 trading days from Sep 29, Embraer averaged +1.8% across the last 5 years, rising in 3 of them.

Next 20 trading days, by year

−6.5%2021+8.9%2022+1.2%2023−2.8%2024+8.0%2025

Average move and hit rate

WindowAverageYears higher
Next 5 trading days−0.5%1 of 5
Next 10 trading days−1.4%1 of 5
Next 15 trading days+1.5%4 of 5
Next 20 trading days+1.8%3 of 5
Next 30 trading days+6.9%4 of 5

For scale, EMBJ’s typical 20-trading-day move in either direction is about 8.5%.

Embraer market cap and key statistics

Embraer’s market cap is $14.04B, with a P/E ratio of 31.8 and revenue of $44.13B over the last twelve months.

Valuation

Market cap
$14.04B
P/E ratio
31.8
Forward P/E
19.9
EPS, TTM
$2.47
Gekko Fair Value
$80.96

Trading

Volume
1.09M
Avg volume, 20 days
1.13M
52-week high
$80.75
52-week low
$53.56
Shares outstanding
178.0M

Financials

Revenue, TTM
$44.13B
Profit margin
5.3%
Return on equity
12.2%
Quarterly earnings growth, YoY
+113.9%

Risk and income

Beta
0.69
Typical daily move
±3.1%
Typical 20-day move
±8.5%
Dividend yield
1.20%

Embraer stock news this week

Coverage of Embraer this week reads neutral: 1 positive, 3 neutral and 0 negative headlines.

News sentiment neutral

More stocks

In the Buying zone today

Reporting earnings this week

Popular on Gekko

Embraer stock FAQ

What is Embraer’s market cap?

Embraer’s market cap is $14.04B at the Sep 28, 2026 close of $76.53, with 178.0M shares outstanding. The shares trade on a P/E ratio of 31.8.

What is the Embraer stock forecast?

The consensus analyst 12-month price target for Embraer is $92.93, +21.4% from the last close. Of the 6 firms that rated the stock in the last 90 days, 5 rate it a buy, 1 a hold and 0 a sell. Gekko doesn’t publish price predictions of its own.

Is Embraer stock overvalued or undervalued?

On Gekko’s estimate Embraer is undervalued: the Sep 28, 2026 close of $76.53 is 5.5% below Gekko Fair Value of $80.96. Gekko Fair Value is recalculated every trading day, and a gap inside 5% either way counts as about fair value.

When does Embraer report earnings next?

Embraer is expected to report on Nov 10, 2026, before the market opens (42 days away). Analysts expect earnings of $0.80 per share on revenue of $2.19B. Embraer beat the earnings estimate in 6 of its last 8 reports, moving 5% on average across the report.

What is Embraer’s 52-week high and low?

Embraer’s 52-week high is $80.75 and its 52-week low is $53.56; it closed at $76.53 on Sep 28, 2026, +27.6% over the past year.

Is Embraer stock a buy right now?

Gekko describes the data; it does not make buy or sell recommendations. On the swing-trade checklist, 4 of the 5 items with data read as supportive (trend, fair value, earnings risk and seasonality), 1 as mixed (gekkoindex). The checklist is a description of current data, not a recommendation.

How this page works

During US trading hours the price at the top of the page is a delayed quote, refreshed every 15 minutes; everything else is rebuilt after each US market close. The GekkoIndex, Gekko Fair Value and the checklist are Gekko’s own, and the Gekko Brief is written by AI from this page’s data and checked against it before it is published. How Gekko’s data works →

See Embraer the way Gekko members do

Every GekkoIndex reading, insider trade, options bet and Congress disclosure plotted on the chart, plus the 5,800-name screener and trade planning tools.

Join 1,380 other traders using Gekko

Start Your FREE 7 Day Trial → Every feature unlocked. No credit card required.