Insider buying last 90 days
No open-market insider purchases were filed for EFC in the last 90 days.
From Form 4 filings, dated to when each was filed.
Every EFC insider filing, plotted on the chart in Gekko.Open EFC in Gekko
Ellington Financial (EFC) Stock Analysis & Forecast
Oct 12 close
$11.71+0.05 (+0.4%)
Gekko Brief
AI summaryOct 12 closeEllington Financial draws continued attention from analysts this week, with Piper Sandler maintaining its Overweight rating and the broader consensus holding at a "Hold" with a target price cited as $14.25 in one report and $14.50 in another. The company also declared a monthly dividend of $0.13 per share, payable 30 November 2026 to holders of record as of 30 October 2026. Coverage also referenced Q2 2026 adjusted distributable earnings of $0.60 per share, which covered the $0.39 dividend.
EFC closed at $11.71, down and trading below both its 50-day average of $12.90 and its 200-day average of $13.04, with the shorter average also below the longer one. Over the past month the stock is off 9.2%, and it has fallen 14% over three months and 13.1% over the past year. The GekkoIndex reads 68.8, placing the stock in the Accumulation zone, while the gap to Gekko Fair Value of $13.67 stands at -14.3%.
Looking ahead, EFC reports earnings on 4 November 2026, 22 days out and within the next 20-trading-day stretch. In its last quarter it posted $0.47 per share against a $0.45 estimate, producing a -0.2% reaction, with five beats across the last eight quarters. No insider, Congress, or unusual options activity appears in the recent window. Seasonally, the next 20 trading days have averaged a 2.8% return over five years, rising in two of those years.
Written by AI from the Oct 12, 2026 close and checked automatically against the figures on this page.
Ellington Financial price vs fair value
Close $11.71200-day averageGekko Fair Value $13.67
Ellington Financial quick facts
- Market cap
- $1.47B
- P/E ratio
- 7.2
- Forward P/E
- 9.1
- EPS, TTM
- $1.61
- Revenue, TTM
- $431.4M
- Profit margin
- 51.5%
- Dividend yield
- 13.50%
- Beta
- 0.97
- Volume
- 1.42M avg 1.78M
- 1-year return
- −13.1%
- Typical daily move
- ±2.1%
- Typical 20-day move
- ±3.4%
- 50-day average
- $12.90
- 200-day average
- $13.04
- Next earnings
- Nov 4
- Shares outstanding
- 128.9M
Ellington Financial swing-trade checklist
Ellington Financial scores 2 supportive, 1 mixed and 2 headwinds across the 5 checklist items with data.
Six things swing traders check before a 20-day hold, read from the latest data.
2 supportive1 mixed2 headwinds
- Trendheadwind
Below 50 and 200-day
Close $11.71 is below the 50-day ($12.90) and 200-day ($13.04) averages, and the 50-day is below the 200-day.
See the chart - GekkoIndexsupportive
68.8, Accumulation
Reading 68.8 is in the Accumulation zone.
See the GekkoIndex - Fair valuesupportive
14.3% below
Price is 14.3% below Gekko Fair Value (more than 5% below).
See fair value - Smart moneyno data
No data
No insider, Congress or unusual options activity in the window.
See smart money - Earnings riskheadwind
Reports in 23 days
Reports on Nov 4, 2026, 23 days away — inside a typical 20-trading-day hold.
See earnings - Seasonalitymixed
+2.8% on average
From this point in the calendar, the next 20 trading days averaged +2.8% over 5 years, rising in 2 of them.
See seasonality
A description of current data, not a recommendation. How this page works
Ellington Financial stock chart and price history
Ellington Financial closed at $11.71 on Oct 12, 2026, −13.1% over the past year, inside a 52-week range of $11.28 to $14.12.
Close50-day average200-day averageVolume
Use the left and right arrow keys to read daily values.
Performance Breakdown
- 1 month
- −9.2%
- 3 months
- −14.0%
- 6 months
- −7.5%
- 1 year
- −13.1%
The full EFC chart adds GekkoIndex, insider, options, Congress and hedge fund markers, plus TrendCandles™.Open EFC in Gekko
Follow Ellington Financial through every session
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About Ellington Financial
Ellington Financial builds and oversees a varied collection of financial assets tied to the U.S. market, carried out through its subsidiary, Ellington Financial Operating Partnership LLC. Much of what it holds relates to housing finance, spanning government-backed residential mortgage securities and privately issued ones linked to loan types such as prime jumbo, Alt-A, manufactured housing, and subprime, together with loans made directly against residential and commercial properties and other forms of commercial real estate debt.
Its reach also extends into consumer lending, with positions in consumer loans and asset-backed securities tied to both consumer and commercial collateral. On top of that, the company holds corporate bonds, equity stakes, loans to businesses, and collateralized loan obligations, and it uses derivatives linked to mortgages and other instruments while continuing to look for additional ways to deploy capital.
Ellington Financial traces back to 2007 and runs its operations from Old Greenwich, Connecticut. Its stock trades under the ticker EFC.
- Sector
- Finance
- Website
- ellingtonfinancial.com
Ellington Financial GekkoIndex: the smart money zone
Ellington Financial’s GekkoIndex — Gekko’s 0 to 100 smart money score — reads 68.8, in the Accumulation zone, down 9.2 points over five sessions.
68.8Accumulation
Down 9.2 points over five sessions, from the Buying zone.
Reading for Oct 12, 2026
What followed past readings in each zone
| Zone | Readings | 5 days | 20 days | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Buying | 42 | −0.3% | +3.2% | ||
| Accumulation (current zone) | 161 | +0.1% | +0.9% | ||
| Neutral | 406 | 0.0% | 0.0% | ||
| Distribution | 25 | +0.2% | −0.5% | ||
| Selling | 1 | Too few readings yet | |||
Average EFC share-price change over the trading days after each daily reading in its GekkoIndex history. Across every stock Gekko tracks, Accumulation readings averaged +2.2% over 20 days. Past behaviour doesn’t guarantee future results.
Accumulation zone: Institutional interest building. About the five zones →
See every daily GekkoIndex reading plotted over the EFC price, zone by zone.Track EFC in Gekko
Is Ellington Financial stock overvalued? Gekko Fair Value
Ellington Financial trades 14.3% below Gekko Fair Value of $13.67, so the shares are undervalued on Gekko’s estimate.
Gekko’s own estimate of what Ellington Financial shares are worth, recalculated every trading day.
$13.67
Gekko Fair Value, Oct 10, 2026
14.3% Undervalued
At the end of Aug 2026 the price was 7.0% below the estimate.
Gekko Fair ValueShare price, month end
Gekko Fair Value on every chart, with the gap to price updating daily.Open EFC in Gekko
Ellington Financial insider and Congress trading
No open-market insider purchases were filed for Ellington Financial, and no Congress trades were disclosed, in the last 90 days.
Plus buybacks, unusual options and fund positions, each dated to when it became public.
Congress trades last 90 days
No trades in EFC were disclosed by members of Congress in the last 90 days.
From congressional disclosures, which report amounts as ranges.
Congress disclosures for EFC, plotted on the chart in Gekko.Open EFC in Gekko
Buybacks
Ellington Financial has been buying back its own shares.
- Bought back, quarter ended Mar 31, 2026
- $115.0M
- As a share of market cap
- 7.83%
From company filings.
Hedge funds and billionaires quarter ended Mar 31
0of the funds Gekko tracks hold EFC.
0added0opened0trimmed1sold out
Which funds are on each side, name by name.Unlock in Gekko
Ellington Financial earnings: next date and track record
Ellington Financial reports on Nov 4, 2026 (23 days away), and beat the EPS estimate in 5 of its last 8 reports.
Next earnings report
Nov 4, 2026
23 days away
- EPS estimate
- $0.47
- Revenue estimate
- $125.8M
5 of 8reports beat the EPS estimate
±1.9%average move across the report
6 of 8reports followed by a gain
Share-price move across each report
Last earnings call, Feb 12, 2026 AI summary
- What they said
- Ellington Financial delivered strong Q4 2025 results with adjusted distributable earnings of $0.47 per share, exceeding dividends of $0.39 per share. The company completed its largest unsecured notes offering of $400 million and executed seven securitizations, including their first residential transition loan securitization with revolving structure. Performance was driven by exceptional results from loan origination platforms and Longbridge segment, with excellent credit performance across residential and commercial loan portfolios.
- Guidance
- Management expressed optimism about long-term opportunities in agency-eligible loans where GSEs are reducing footprint, allowing private capital to capture attractive risk-adjusted returns with synergies to existing underwriting and sourcing capabilities.
| Reported | EPS | Revenue | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 12, 2026 | $0.47 est $0.45 | $78.24M est $101.8M | −0.2% |
| Nov 5, 2025 | $0.53 est $0.44 | $76.58M est $132.1M | +0.7% |
| Aug 7, 2025 | $0.47 est $0.40 | $43.34M est $112.1M | +2.0% |
| May 5, 2025 | $0.39 est $0.39 | $72.28M est $106.0M | −2.1% |
| Feb 24, 2025 | $0.45 est $0.38 | $66.08M est $112.9M | +1.6% |
| Nov 6, 2024 | $0.40 est $0.36 | $33.63M est $116.6M | +4.0% |
| Aug 6, 2024 | $0.33 est $0.35 | $89.59M est $49.60M | +4.4% |
| May 7, 2024 | $0.28 est $0.36 | $122.8M est $32.32M | +0.3% |
“Move” is the close of the first session after the report compared with the close of the last session before it, so it reads the same whether the company reported before the open or after the close.
Ellington Financial stock forecast and analyst price targets
Analysts’ average 12-month price target for Ellington Financial is $14.79, +26.3% from the last close, from 4 firms rating the stock in the last 90 days.
$14.79consensus 12-month target, +26.3% from the last close
Now $11.71Avg $14.79
Low $14High $15
Each firm’s latest rating in the last 90 days: 4 firms.
Latest analyst actions
| Date | Firm | Target | vs price |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 9 | Piper Sandler | $14 | +19.6% |
| Oct 7 | KBW | $14.50 | +23.8% |
| Aug 19 | UBS | $14.50 | +23.8% |
| Aug 10 | KBW | $15 | +28.1% |
| Aug 7 | Maxim Group | $15 | +28.1% |
+0.9%average 20-day move after past Accumulation readings
+2.8%average move over the next 20 trading days in the last 5 years
±2.1%typical daily move, from the 14-day average range
Gekko doesn’t publish price predictions. These are analyst targets and historical base rates, which don’t guarantee future results.
Ellington Financial seasonality: the next 20 trading days
Over the next 20 trading days from Oct 10, Ellington Financial averaged +2.8% across the last 5 years, rising in 2 of them.
Next 20 trading days, by year
Average move and hit rate
| Window | Average | Years higher |
|---|---|---|
| Next 5 trading days | +2.2% | 4 of 5 |
| Next 10 trading days | +1.3% | 2 of 5 |
| Next 15 trading days | +2.5% | 2 of 5 |
| Next 20 trading days | +2.8% | 2 of 5 |
| Next 30 trading days | +4.6% | 3 of 5 |
For scale, EFC’s typical 20-trading-day move in either direction is about 3.4%.
Ellington Financial market cap and key statistics
Ellington Financial’s market cap is $1.47B, with a P/E ratio of 7.2 and revenue of $431.4M over the last twelve months.
Valuation
- Market cap
- $1.47B
- P/E ratio
- 7.2
- Forward P/E
- 9.1
- EPS, TTM
- $1.61
- Gekko Fair Value
- $13.67
Trading
- Volume
- 1.42M
- Avg volume, 20 days
- 1.78M
- 52-week high
- $14.12
- 52-week low
- $11.28
- Shares outstanding
- 128.9M
Financials
- Revenue, TTM
- $431.4M
- Profit margin
- 51.5%
- Return on equity
- 12.2%
- Quarterly earnings growth, YoY
- −3.3%
Risk and income
- Beta
- 0.97
- Typical daily move
- ±2.1%
- Typical 20-day move
- ±3.4%
- Dividend yield
- 13.50%
Ellington Financial stock news this week
Coverage of Ellington Financial this week reads positive: 3 positive, 1 neutral and 0 negative headlines.
- Ellington Financial Is Maintained at Overweight by Piper SandlerMoomoo, Oct 10
- Ellington Financial Inc. (NYSE:EFC) Stock Has Consensus Target Price of $14.25MarketBeat, Oct 9
- Ellington Financial Inc. (EFC) Latest Stock News & HeadlinesYahoo! Finance Canada, Oct 8
- Ellington Financial Inc. (NYSE:EFC) to Issue Monthly Dividend of $0.13Defense World, Oct 8
- Ellington Financial Declares Monthly Common DividendBusiness Wire, Oct 7
- Ellington Financial stock gained 1.48 percent on October 6AD HOC NEWS, Oct 7
Ellington Financial stock FAQ
What is Ellington Financial’s market cap?
Ellington Financial’s market cap is $1.47B at the Oct 12, 2026 close of $11.71, with 128.9M shares outstanding. The shares trade on a P/E ratio of 7.2.
What is the Ellington Financial stock forecast?
The consensus analyst 12-month price target for Ellington Financial is $14.79, +26.3% from the last close. Of the 4 firms that rated the stock in the last 90 days, 3 rate it a buy, 1 a hold and 0 a sell. Gekko doesn’t publish price predictions of its own.
Is Ellington Financial stock overvalued or undervalued?
On Gekko’s estimate Ellington Financial is undervalued: the Oct 12, 2026 close of $11.71 is 14.3% below Gekko Fair Value of $13.67. Gekko Fair Value is recalculated every trading day, and a gap inside 5% either way counts as about fair value.
When does Ellington Financial report earnings next?
Ellington Financial is expected to report on Nov 4, 2026 (23 days away). Analysts expect earnings of $0.47 per share on revenue of $125.8M. Ellington Financial beat the earnings estimate in 5 of its last 8 reports, moving 1.9% on average across the report.
What is Ellington Financial’s 52-week high and low?
Ellington Financial’s 52-week high is $14.12 and its 52-week low is $11.28; it closed at $11.71 on Oct 12, 2026, −13.1% over the past year. Over the last five years the shares peaked at $18.93 on Oct 12, 2021.
Is Ellington Financial stock a buy right now?
Gekko describes the data; it does not make buy or sell recommendations. On the swing-trade checklist, 2 of the 5 items with data read as supportive (gekkoindex and fair value), 1 as mixed (seasonality) and 2 as headwinds (trend and earnings risk). The checklist is a description of current data, not a recommendation.
How this page works
During US trading hours the price at the top of the page is a delayed quote, refreshed every 15 minutes; everything else is rebuilt after each US market close. The GekkoIndex, Gekko Fair Value and the checklist are Gekko’s own, and the Gekko Brief is written by AI from this page’s data and checked against it before it is published. How Gekko’s data works →
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