Dynex Capital (DX) Stock Analysis & Forecast

Oct 12 close

$10.90+0.04 (+0.4%)

Gekko Brief

AI summaryOct 12 close

Dynex Capital declares an October monthly common stock dividend of $0.17 and schedules its third-quarter 2026 earnings release for 19 October, before market open, with analysts projecting earnings of $0.3945 per share and revenue of $112.54 million. Separate commentary highlights the company's new 9.375% Series D preferred shares and its rapidly expanded agency-backed RMBS asset base, while Marketbeat reports a consensus "Moderate Buy" rating from ratings firms covering the stock, with two holds and three buys noted there.

DX closes at $10.90, down from both its 50-day average of $12.30 and 200-day average of $13.13, with the 50-day below the 200-day. The stock is off 12.9% over one month and 15.9% over the past year, trading within a 52-week range of $10.36 to $14.93. The GekkoIndex reads 69.9, placing it in the Accumulation zone, down 8 points over five sessions. Price sits 15.5% below Gekko Fair Value of $12.90.

Earnings arrive on 19 October, six days out and inside a typical 20-trading-day holding window; the prior report on 20 July showed EPS of $0.36 matching estimates, with an average absolute reaction of 1.4% across past quarters. No insider, Congress, or unusual options activity appears in the respective 90-day and 30-day windows. Seasonality over the next 20 trading days has averaged a 1.3% return across 5 years, rising in 4 of them. Analysts carry a consensus target of $13.75, implying 26.1% upside from current levels.

Written by AI from the Oct 12, 2026 close and checked automatically against the figures on this page.

Dynex Capital price vs fair value

$12.90$10.90Oct ’25Apr ’26Oct ’26
Close $10.90200-day averageGekko Fair Value $12.90

Dynex Capital quick facts

Market cap
$2.70B
P/E ratio
3.7
Forward P/E
7.9
EPS, TTM
$2.89
Revenue, TTM
$502.3M
Profit margin
86.8%
Dividend yield
19.30%
Beta
0.97
Volume
7.33M avg 8.24M
1-year return
−15.9%
Typical daily move
±3%
Typical 20-day move
±3.6%
50-day average
$12.30
200-day average
$13.13
Next earnings
Oct 19
Shares outstanding
248.2M
52-week range
$10.36$14.93

Dynex Capital swing-trade checklist

Dynex Capital scores 3 supportive, 0 mixed and 2 headwinds across the 5 checklist items with data.

Six things swing traders check before a 20-day hold, read from the latest data.

3 supportive0 mixed2 headwinds

  • Trendheadwind

    Below 50 and 200-day

    Close $10.90 is below the 50-day ($12.30) and 200-day ($13.13) averages, and the 50-day is below the 200-day.

    See the chart
  • GekkoIndexsupportive

    69.9, Accumulation

    Reading 69.9 is in the Accumulation zone.

    See the GekkoIndex
  • Fair valuesupportive

    15.5% below

    Price is 15.5% below Gekko Fair Value (more than 5% below).

    See fair value
  • Smart moneyno data

    No data

    No insider, Congress or unusual options activity in the window.

    See smart money
  • Earnings riskheadwind

    Reports in 7 days

    Reports on Oct 19, 2026, 7 days away — inside a typical 20-trading-day hold.

    See earnings
  • Seasonalitysupportive

    +1.3% on average

    From this point in the calendar, the next 20 trading days averaged +1.3% over 5 years, rising in 4 of them.

    See seasonality

A description of current data, not a recommendation. How this page works

Dynex Capital stock chart and price history

Dynex Capital closed at $10.90 on Oct 12, 2026, −15.9% over the past year, inside a 52-week range of $10.36 to $14.93.

Close50-day average200-day averageVolume
Dynex Capital share price, past year, with 50-day and 200-day moving averages and volume$12$13$14NovDecJan 2026FebMarAprMayJunJulAugSepOct10.90

Use the left and right arrow keys to read daily values.

Performance Breakdown

1 month
−12.9%
3 months
−17.5%
6 months
−16.7%
1 year
−15.9%
The full DX chart adds GekkoIndex, insider, options, Congress and hedge fund markers, plus TrendCandles™.Open DX in Gekko

Follow Dynex Capital through every session

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About Dynex Capital

Dynex Capital invests in mortgage-backed securities across the United States, using borrowed funds to build its holdings. Its portfolio includes agency MBS, whose principal repayment is backed by a government body or a government-sponsored enterprise such as Fannie Mae or Freddie Mac, and non-agency MBS, which carry no such backing. The securities it holds include residential mortgage pools, commercial mortgage pools, and interest-only commercial mortgage instruments.

The company is organized as a real estate investment trust for federal tax purposes, a status that generally exempts it from federal corporate income tax as long as it pays out at least 90% of its taxable income to shareholders. This structure governs how income from its mortgage securities portfolio flows through to investors.

Dynex Capital was founded in 1987 and is based in Glen Allen, Virginia. Its shares trade under the ticker DX.

Sector
Finance
Website
dynexcapital.com

Dynex Capital GekkoIndex: the smart money zone

Dynex Capital’s GekkoIndex — Gekko’s 0 to 100 smart money score — reads 69.9, in the Accumulation zone, down 8 points over five sessions.

010069.9Accumulation

Down 8 points over five sessions, from the Buying zone.

Reading for Oct 12, 2026

What followed past readings in each zone

ZoneReadings5 days10 days20 days50 days
Buying46−2.5%−2.5%+3.4%+1.9%
Accumulation (current zone)186+0.6%+0.9%+1.2%+2.0%
Neutral363−0.1%−0.3%−0.8%+0.3%
Distribution40−0.2%−0.3%−1.0%−7.1%
Selling0Not available

Average DX share-price change over the trading days after each daily reading in its GekkoIndex history. Across every stock Gekko tracks, Accumulation readings averaged +2.2% over 20 days. Past behaviour doesn’t guarantee future results.

Accumulation zone: Institutional interest building. About the five zones →

See every daily GekkoIndex reading plotted over the DX price, zone by zone.Track DX in Gekko

Is Dynex Capital stock overvalued? Gekko Fair Value

Dynex Capital trades 15.5% below Gekko Fair Value of $12.90, so the shares are undervalued on Gekko’s estimate.

Gekko’s own estimate of what Dynex Capital shares are worth, recalculated every trading day.

$12.90

Gekko Fair Value, Oct 10, 2026

15.5% Undervalued

At the end of Aug 2026 the price was 8.8% below the estimate.

Gekko Fair ValueShare price, month end
$13$11Aug 2026SepOct 2026

How Gekko Fair Value works →

Gekko Fair Value on every chart, with the gap to price updating daily.Open DX in Gekko

Dynex Capital insider and Congress trading

No open-market insider purchases were filed for Dynex Capital, and no Congress trades were disclosed, in the last 90 days.

Plus buybacks, unusual options and fund positions, each dated to when it became public.

Insider buying last 90 days

No open-market insider purchases were filed for DX in the last 90 days.

From Form 4 filings, dated to when each was filed.

Every DX insider filing, plotted on the chart in Gekko.Open DX in Gekko

Congress trades last 90 days

No trades in DX were disclosed by members of Congress in the last 90 days.

From congressional disclosures, which report amounts as ranges.

Congress disclosures for DX, plotted on the chart in Gekko.Open DX in Gekko

Buybacks

Dynex Capital has been buying back its own shares.

Latest authorization
$350.0M, Apr 21, 2026
Bought back, year ended Dec 31, 2020
$617K
As a share of market cap
0.02%

From company filings.

Dynex Capital earnings: next date and track record

Dynex Capital reports on Oct 19, 2026 (7 days away), and beat the EPS estimate in 3 of its last 8 reports.

3 of 8reports beat the EPS estimate
±1.4%average move across the report
5 of 8reports followed by a gain

Share-price move across each report

−1.3%Oct ’24+2.2%Jan ’25+1.2%Apr ’25+1.5%Jul ’25−0.7%Oct ’25+0.8%Jan ’26+1.1%Apr ’26−2.3%Jul ’26

Last earnings call, Jul 20, 2026 AI summary

What they said
Dynex Capital reported Q2 2026 total economic return of 6.4%, with book value per share rising 2.4% to $12.90. Net interest income increased to $0.42/share from $0.40. The company raised nearly $400 million in capital during the quarter, growing its capital base to $3.1 billion from $2.4 billion at year-end, a 40%+ increase in Agency MBS portfolio. Strategy centers on Agency MBS as core asset class while scaling operations.
Guidance
Management sees favorable conditions for continued growth, targeting scale expansion through accretive capital raising invested in Agency MBS. The company aims to grow from its current $3.1 billion capital base, having expanded 5x since 2022, with scale expected to drive valuation improvement.
ReportedEPSSurpriseRevenueSurpriseMove
Jul 20, 2026$0.36
est $0.36
−1.3%$93.78M
est $103.6M
−9.5%−2.3%
Apr 20, 2026$0.31
est $0.31
−1.0%$79.25M
est $89.18M
−11.1%+1.1%
Jan 26, 2026$0.22
est $0.38
−42.0%$43.48M
est $62.12M
−30.0%+0.8%
Oct 20, 2025$0.25
est $0.44
−43.2%$139.0M
est $28.36M
+390.1%−0.7%
Jul 21, 2025$0.22
est $0.49
−55.1%−$1.31M
est $21.20M
−106.2%+1.5%
Apr 21, 2025$0.20
est $0.14
+42.9%$9.04M
est $11.17M
−19.0%+1.2%
Jan 27, 2025$0.60
est $0.21
+185.7%$60.33M
est $8.54M
+606.5%+2.2%
Oct 21, 2024$0.38
est $0.22
+72.7%$39.70M
est $10.97M
+261.9%−1.3%

“Move” is the close of the first session after the report compared with the close of the last session before it, so it reads the same whether the company reported before the open or after the close.

Dynex Capital stock forecast and analyst price targets

Analysts’ average 12-month price target for Dynex Capital is $13.75, +26.1% from the last close, from 3 firms rating the stock in the last 90 days.

$13.75consensus 12-month target, +26.1% from the last close
Low $12High $14.75
Buy3
Hold0
Sell0

Each firm’s latest rating in the last 90 days: 3 firms.

Latest analyst actions

DateFirmRatingTargetvs price
Oct 7KBWBuy, maintained$12.50+14.7%
Oct 6BTIGBuy, maintained$12+10.1%
Jul 21KBWBuy, maintained$15+37.6%
Jul 20JonesTradingBuy, reiterated$14.75+35.3%
+1.2%average 20-day move after past Accumulation readings
+1.3%average move over the next 20 trading days in the last 5 years
±3%typical daily move, from the 14-day average range

Gekko doesn’t publish price predictions. These are analyst targets and historical base rates, which don’t guarantee future results.

Dynex Capital seasonality: the next 20 trading days

Over the next 20 trading days from Oct 10, Dynex Capital averaged +1.3% across the last 5 years, rising in 4 of them.

Next 20 trading days, by year

+1.4%2021+6.0%2022−6.7%2023+1.2%2024+4.9%2025

Average move and hit rate

WindowAverageYears higher
Next 5 trading days+1.8%4 of 5
Next 10 trading days−1.9%3 of 5
Next 15 trading days−1.1%4 of 5
Next 20 trading days+1.3%4 of 5
Next 30 trading days+2.2%3 of 5

For scale, DX’s typical 20-trading-day move in either direction is about 3.6%.

Dynex Capital market cap and key statistics

Dynex Capital’s market cap is $2.70B, with a P/E ratio of 3.7 and revenue of $502.3M over the last twelve months.

Valuation

Market cap
$2.70B
P/E ratio
3.7
Forward P/E
7.9
EPS, TTM
$2.89
Gekko Fair Value
$12.90

Trading

Volume
7.33M
Avg volume, 20 days
8.24M
52-week high
$14.93
52-week low
$10.36
Shares outstanding
248.2M

Financials

Revenue, TTM
$502.3M
Profit margin
86.8%
Return on equity
18.2%
Quarterly earnings growth, YoY
+92.3%

Risk and income

Beta
0.97
Typical daily move
±3%
Typical 20-day move
±3.6%
Dividend yield
19.30%

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Dynex Capital stock FAQ

What is Dynex Capital’s market cap?

Dynex Capital’s market cap is $2.70B at the Oct 12, 2026 close of $10.90, with 248.2M shares outstanding. The shares trade on a P/E ratio of 3.7.

What is the Dynex Capital stock forecast?

The consensus analyst 12-month price target for Dynex Capital is $13.75, +26.1% from the last close. Of the 3 firms that rated the stock in the last 90 days, 3 rate it a buy, 0 a hold and 0 a sell. Gekko doesn’t publish price predictions of its own.

Is Dynex Capital stock overvalued or undervalued?

On Gekko’s estimate Dynex Capital is undervalued: the Oct 12, 2026 close of $10.90 is 15.5% below Gekko Fair Value of $12.90. Gekko Fair Value is recalculated every trading day, and a gap inside 5% either way counts as about fair value.

When does Dynex Capital report earnings next?

Dynex Capital is expected to report on Oct 19, 2026 (7 days away). Analysts expect earnings of $0.39 per share on revenue of $112.5M. Dynex Capital beat the earnings estimate in 3 of its last 8 reports, moving 1.4% on average across the report.

What is Dynex Capital’s 52-week high and low?

Dynex Capital’s 52-week high is $14.93 and its 52-week low is $10.36; it closed at $10.90 on Oct 12, 2026, −15.9% over the past year. Over the last five years the shares peaked at $18.15 on Oct 20, 2021.

Is Dynex Capital stock a buy right now?

Gekko describes the data; it does not make buy or sell recommendations. On the swing-trade checklist, 3 of the 5 items with data read as supportive (gekkoindex, fair value and seasonality) and 2 as headwinds (trend and earnings risk). The checklist is a description of current data, not a recommendation.

How this page works

During US trading hours the price at the top of the page is a delayed quote, refreshed every 15 minutes; everything else is rebuilt after each US market close. The GekkoIndex, Gekko Fair Value and the checklist are Gekko’s own, and the Gekko Brief is written by AI from this page’s data and checked against it before it is published. How Gekko’s data works →

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