Insider buying last 90 days
No open-market insider purchases were filed for CF in the last 90 days.
From Form 4 filings, dated to when each was filed.
Every CF insider filing, plotted on the chart in Gekko.Open CF in Gekko
NYSE: CF
CF Industries (CF) Stock Analysis & Forecast
Sep 28 close
$115.51+0.84 (+0.7%)
Gekko Brief
AI summaryThis week's news centered on analyst actions and a fertilizer market debate. Rothschild & Co Redburn upgraded CF Industries to Neutral from Sell, raising its price target to $110, citing rising crop prices and expectations of firmer nitrogen prices and demand into early 2027, along with higher fiscal 2026 and 2027 adjusted EBITDA estimates. Bernstein SocGen Group separately initiated coverage with an Outperform rating and a $162.00 price target, pointing to undervaluation. Other coverage referenced a potential U.S.-Belarus potash supply deal that had pressured shares, alongside commentary on CF's ammonia production position and its performance versus the agricultural inputs industry and the VanEck Agribusiness ETF.
CF closed at $115.51, up 0.7%, sitting between its 50-day average of $125.22 and 200-day average of $111.75. Shares are down 8.1% over one month and down 15.3% over six months, though up 28.8% over the past year. The GekkoIndex reads 65.6, placing CF in the Accumulation zone, with the index up 5.2 over five days. The stock trades 35.4% below Gekko Fair Value of $178.89.
CF's next earnings report is set for 4 November 2026, 36 days out, beyond a typical 20-trading-day hold. Over the last 30 days there has been 1 unusual options signal, with call premium of $2,168,254 against no put premium recorded. Analyst consensus stands at 4 buy, 8 hold, and 3 sell ratings among 15 firms, with a consensus target of $125.25. Seasonality over five years shows an average 20-day return of 1.9%, positive in 3 of those years.
Written by AI and checked automatically against the figures on this page. Generated Sep 29, 2026 from the data above.
CF Industries price vs fair value
Close $115.51200-day averageGekko Fair Value $178.89
CF Industries quick facts
- Market cap
- $17.74B
- P/E ratio
- 9
- Forward P/E
- 12.2
- EPS, TTM
- $13.23
- Revenue, TTM
- $7.74B
- Profit margin
- 27.1%
- Dividend yield
- 1.66%
- Beta
- 0.40
- Volume
- 2.86M avg 2.81M
- 1-year return
- +28.8%
- Typical daily move
- ±4.3%
- Typical 20-day move
- ±6.4%
- 50-day average
- $125.22
- 200-day average
- $111.75
- Next earnings
- Nov 4
- Shares outstanding
- 151.3M
CF Industries swing-trade checklist
CF Industries scores 5 supportive, 1 mixed and 0 headwinds across the 6 checklist items with data.
Six things swing traders check before a 20-day hold, read from the latest data.
5 supportive1 mixed0 headwinds
- Trendmixed
Averages disagree
Close $115.51 sits between the 50-day ($125.22) and 200-day ($111.75) averages, or the averages disagree.
See the chart - GekkoIndexsupportive
65.6, Accumulation
Reading 65.6 is in the Accumulation zone.
See the GekkoIndex - Fair valuesupportive
35.4% below
Price is 35.4% below Gekko Fair Value (more than 5% below).
See fair value - Smart moneysupportive
Leans bullish
Last 30 days: 1 unusual options signal.
See smart money - Earnings risksupportive
Reports in 36 days
Next report Nov 4, 2026, 36 days away — outside a typical 20-trading-day hold.
See earnings - Seasonalitysupportive
+1.9% on average
From this point in the calendar, the next 20 trading days averaged +1.9% over 5 years, rising in 3 of them.
See seasonality
A description of current data, not a recommendation. How this page works
CF Industries stock chart and price history
CF Industries closed at $115.51 on Sep 28, 2026, +28.8% over the past year, inside a 52-week range of $75.42 to $141.96.
Close50-day average200-day averageVolume
Use the left and right arrow keys to read daily values.
Performance Breakdown
- 1 month
- −8.1%
- 3 months
- +9.6%
- 6 months
- −15.3%
- 1 year
- +28.8%
The full CF chart adds GekkoIndex, insider, options, Congress and hedge fund markers, plus TrendCandles™.Open CF in Gekko
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CF Industries GekkoIndex: the smart money zone
CF Industries’s GekkoIndex — Gekko’s 0 to 100 smart money score — reads 65.6, in the Accumulation zone, up 5.2 points over five sessions.
65.6Accumulation
Up 5.2 points over five sessions.
Reading for Sep 28, 2026
What followed past readings in each zone
| Zone | Readings | 5 days | 20 days | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Buying | 19 | +2.4% | +6.0% | ||
| Accumulation (current zone) | 228 | +0.5% | +2.2% | ||
| Neutral | 379 | +0.4% | +1.9% | ||
| Distribution | 45 | 0.0% | +1.5% | ||
| Selling | 1 | Too few readings yet | |||
Average CF share-price change over the trading days after each daily reading in its GekkoIndex history. Across every stock Gekko tracks, Accumulation readings averaged +2.3% over 20 days. Past behaviour doesn’t guarantee future results.
Accumulation zone: Institutional interest building. About the five zones →
See every daily GekkoIndex reading plotted over the CF price, zone by zone.Track CF in Gekko
Is CF Industries stock overvalued? Gekko Fair Value
CF Industries trades 35.4% below Gekko Fair Value of $178.89, so the shares are undervalued on Gekko’s estimate.
Gekko’s own estimate of what CF Industries shares are worth, recalculated every trading day.
$178.89
Gekko Fair Value, Sep 26, 2026
35.4% Undervalued
Gekko Fair Value on every chart, with the gap to price updating daily.Open CF in Gekko
CF Industries insider and Congress trading
No open-market insider purchases were filed for CF Industries, and no Congress trades were disclosed, in the last 90 days.
Plus buybacks, unusual options and fund positions, each dated to when it became public.
Congress trades last 90 days
No trades in CF were disclosed by members of Congress in the last 90 days.
From congressional disclosures, which report amounts as ranges.
Congress disclosures for CF, plotted on the chart in Gekko.Open CF in Gekko
Buybacks
CF Industries has been buying back its own shares.
- Bought back, quarter ended Jun 30, 2026
- $225.0M
- As a share of market cap
- 1.27%
- Trailing four quarters
- $1.63B
From company filings.
Unusual options activity last 30 days
1signal, 100% of the flagged premium in calls.
Latest: Bullish flow on Sep 5, $2.17M in unusual premium.
Every signal with its contract, strike and premium.Unlock in Gekko
CF Industries earnings: next date and track record
CF Industries reports on Nov 4, 2026 (36 days away), and beat the EPS estimate in 6 of its last 8 reports.
Next earnings report
Nov 4, 2026
36 days away
- EPS estimate
- $3.02
- Revenue estimate
- $1.79B
6 of 8reports beat the EPS estimate
±4.3%average move across the report
2 of 8reports followed by a gain
Share-price move across each report
Last earnings call, Aug 5, 2026 AI summary
- What they said
- CF Industries reported strong first half and second quarter results with adjusted EBITDA of $2.2 billion for H1 and $1.2 billion for Q2, and net earnings of $1.3 billion (H1) and $727 million (Q2). Management highlighted excellent safety performance, very high asset utilization (ammonia capacity ~98%), and disciplined capital allocation: significant share repurchases (~$958 million) and a 20% dividend increase to $0.60/quarter. Strategic initiatives progressed: BluePoint received permits with long-lead items ordered and construction expected to begin soon; Yazoo City restart timing was pushed into the first half of next year as site configuration and procurement timelines were refined. Management raised mid-cycle EBITDA and free cash flow expectations, provided capex guidance (approximately $1.3 billion total capex in 2026, CF portion ~$950 million) and discussed economics for new large-scale plants (assumed ~1.3–1.4M ton site, capex $2.6–$2.8B and a NOLA price assumption moved from ~$355 to ~$385/short ton). They reiterated confidence in long-term nitrogen market tightness driven by constrained supply growth, higher capital costs, LNG/gas-driven production pressure, and geopolitical exposures. Management expressed optimism on downstream growth opportunities (DEF) and low-carbon (Blue) ammonia demand, while emphasizing cost-control measures and fixed-fee contracts to mitigate inflationary pressure.
- Guidance
- Raised mid-cycle EBITDA and free cash flow expectations (no exact full-year GAAP earnings guidance issued). CapEx projection: approximately $1.3 billion in 2026 total, CF's portion about $950 million. BluePoint economics: illustrative new-plant assumptions of ~1.3–1.4M ton capacity, CapEx ~$2.6–$2.8 billion, NOLA price assumptions moved to ~$3.85/hundredweight (i.e., ~$385/short ton) to achieve target returns; incremental $400M of EBITDA by 2030 (with ~$300M from BluePoint and ~$100M from carbon capture benefits). Board increased quarterly dividend by 20% to $0.60 per share. Continued opportunistic share repurchases (program ongoing).
- Risks flagged
- Geopolitical risk (conflict in the Middle East) causing supply disruptions and higher freight/insurance costs; high LNG and natural gas prices pressuring marginal production and European operations; construction cost inflation and extended procurement lead times; operational downtime (Yazoo City outage) and timing uncertainty; business interruption and property insurance timing/coverage uncertainty; demand volatility and deferrals (buyer holiday in Q2); dependence on Chinese export behavior and potential future capacity additions globally; regulatory and market risk related to carbon/45Q credits and class 6 certification timing.
| Reported | EPS | Revenue | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 5, 2026 | $4.73 est $5.65 | $2.22B est $2.45B | −1.2% |
| May 6, 2026 | $3.98 est $2.17 | $1.99B est $1.84B | −7.3% |
| Feb 18, 2026 | $2.99 est $2.43 | $1.87B est $1.78B | +6.0% |
| Nov 5, 2025 | $2.19 est $2.16 | $1.66B est $1.67B | −3.7% |
| Aug 6, 2025 | $2.37 est $2.50 | $1.89B est $1.80B | −10.6% |
| May 7, 2025 | $1.85 est $1.48 | $1.66B est $1.54B | −0.8% |
| Feb 19, 2025 | $1.89 est $1.52 | $1.52B est $1.50B | −3.6% |
| Oct 30, 2024 | $1.55 est $1.11 | $1.37B est $1.28B | +1.1% |
“Move” is the close of the first session after the report compared with the close of the last session before it, so it reads the same whether the company reported before the open or after the close.
CF Industries stock forecast and analyst price targets
Analysts’ average 12-month price target for CF Industries is $125.25, +8.4% from the last close, from 15 firms rating the stock in the last 90 days.
$125.25consensus 12-month target, +8.4% from the last close
Now $115.51Avg $125.25
Low $106High $162
Each firm’s latest rating in the last 90 days: 15 firms.
Latest analyst actions
| Date | Firm | Target | vs price |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 28 | Rothschild & Co Redburn | $110 | −4.8% |
| Sep 25 | Bernstein | $162 | +40.2% |
| Sep 21 | Morgan Stanley | $115 | −0.4% |
| Sep 11 | KeyBanc | $115 | −0.4% |
| Sep 10 | KeyBanc | $115 | −0.4% |
+2.2%average 20-day move after past Accumulation readings
+1.9%average move over the next 20 trading days in the last 5 years
±4.3%typical daily move, from the 14-day average range
Gekko doesn’t publish price predictions. These are analyst targets and historical base rates, which don’t guarantee future results.
CF Industries seasonality: the next 20 trading days
Over the next 20 trading days from Sep 26, CF Industries averaged +1.9% across the last 5 years, rising in 3 of them.
Next 20 trading days, by year
Average move and hit rate
| Window | Average | Years higher |
|---|---|---|
| Next 5 trading days | +3.8% | 3 of 5 |
| Next 10 trading days | +5.6% | 4 of 5 |
| Next 15 trading days | +2.3% | 4 of 5 |
| Next 20 trading days | +1.9% | 3 of 5 |
| Next 30 trading days | +1.5% | 2 of 5 |
For scale, CF’s typical 20-trading-day move in either direction is about 6.4%.
CF Industries market cap and key statistics
CF Industries’s market cap is $17.74B, with a P/E ratio of 9 and revenue of $7.74B over the last twelve months.
Valuation
- Market cap
- $17.74B
- P/E ratio
- 9
- Forward P/E
- 12.2
- EPS, TTM
- $13.23
- Gekko Fair Value
- $178.89
Trading
- Volume
- 2.86M
- Avg volume, 20 days
- 2.81M
- 52-week high
- $141.96
- 52-week low
- $75.42
- Shares outstanding
- 151.3M
Financials
- Revenue, TTM
- $7.74B
- Profit margin
- 27.1%
- Return on equity
- 29.9%
- Quarterly earnings growth, YoY
- +99.6%
Risk and income
- Beta
- 0.40
- Typical daily move
- ±4.3%
- Typical 20-day move
- ±6.4%
- Dividend yield
- 1.66%
CF Industries stock news this week
Coverage of CF Industries this week reads positive: 6 positive, 2 neutral and 3 negative headlines.
- Rothschild & Co Redburn Upgrades CF Industries (CF) to Neutral on Fertilizer Demand OutlookGuruFocus, Sep 28
- CF Industries upgraded at Redburn as crop rally brightens fertilizer outlook (CF:NYSE)Seeking Alpha, Sep 28
- Rothschild Redburn upgrades CF Industries stock rating on nitrogen market outlookInvesting.com Nigeria, Sep 28
- Is CF Industries Holdings Inc (CF) a Bargain After 3.2% Drop? GF Value Says UndervaluedGuruFocus, Sep 25
- Bernstein initiates CF Industries stock coverage with upbeat viewInvesting.com, Sep 25
- Bernstein initiates CF Industries stock coverage with upbeat view By Investing.comInvesting.com Nigeria, Sep 25
CF Industries peers
CF Industries’s 6 largest industry peers by market value, with today’s move, GekkoIndex zone and gap to Gekko Fair Value.
| Stock | GekkoIndex zone | vs Fair Value |
|---|---|---|
| NTRNutrien | Accumulation | 4.7% above |
| MOSMosaic | Accumulation | 18.1% below |
| ICLICL | Accumulation | 8.6% below |
| SMGScotts Miracle-Gro | Buying | 28.3% below |
| UANCVR Partners | Accumulation | 36.7% below |
| ODCOil-Dri Corporation Of America | Neutral | 3.4% below |
A peer links to its own page where one exists.
CF Industries stock FAQ
What is CF Industries’s market cap?
CF Industries’s market cap is $17.74B at the Sep 28, 2026 close of $115.51, with 151.3M shares outstanding. The shares trade on a P/E ratio of 9.
What is the CF Industries stock forecast?
The consensus analyst 12-month price target for CF Industries is $125.25, +8.4% from the last close. Of the 15 firms that rated the stock in the last 90 days, 4 rate it a buy, 8 a hold and 3 a sell. Gekko doesn’t publish price predictions of its own.
Is CF Industries stock overvalued or undervalued?
On Gekko’s estimate CF Industries is undervalued: the Sep 28, 2026 close of $115.51 is 35.4% below Gekko Fair Value of $178.89. Gekko Fair Value is recalculated every trading day, and a gap inside 5% either way counts as about fair value.
When does CF Industries report earnings next?
CF Industries is expected to report on Nov 4, 2026 (36 days away). Analysts expect earnings of $3.02 per share on revenue of $1.79B. CF Industries beat the earnings estimate in 6 of its last 8 reports, moving 4.3% on average across the report.
What is CF Industries’s 52-week high and low?
CF Industries’s 52-week high is $141.96 and its 52-week low is $75.42; it closed at $115.51 on Sep 28, 2026, +28.8% over the past year.
Is CF Industries stock a buy right now?
Gekko describes the data; it does not make buy or sell recommendations. On the swing-trade checklist, 5 of the 6 items with data read as supportive (gekkoindex, fair value, smart money, earnings risk and seasonality), 1 as mixed (trend). The checklist is a description of current data, not a recommendation.
Is there unusual options activity in CF Industries?
Gekko flagged 1 unusual options signal in CF Industries over the last 30 days, with $2.17M of flagged premium in calls and $0 in puts. The latest, bullish flow, was on Sep 5, 2026 with $2.17M in unusual premium. The signal-by-signal table is in Gekko.
How this page works
During US trading hours the price at the top of the page is a delayed quote, refreshed every 15 minutes; everything else is rebuilt after each US market close. The GekkoIndex, Gekko Fair Value and the checklist are Gekko’s own, and the Gekko Brief is written by AI from this page’s data and checked against it before it is published. How Gekko’s data works →
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