Oct 12 close
This week's news centers on analyst attention around AMR's valuation and upcoming results. UBS analyst George Eadie maintained a Hold/Neutral rating while raising the price target from $160 to $180, and a separate report cited a target lift from USD 168 to USD 185, both following Q2 2026 revenue of $492.86 million and a GAAP net loss of $12.25 million. Coverage also flagged AMR's 209.2% five-year share price run and questioned whether its sales base supports current valuation, alongside confirmation that Q3 2026 earnings are scheduled for 5 November 2026, with analysts expecting -$0.5625 per share on revenue of $564.69 million.
AMR closed at $185.62, up 2.2%, sitting below both its 50-day average of $186.29 and 200-day average of $188.82, with the 50-day below the 200-day. The stock's one-month return stands at -11.4%, against a three-month gain of 20.6% and a one-year gain of 10.9%. The GekkoIndex reads 58.4, placing it in the Neutral zone, down 4.6 over five days. Gekko Fair Value is set at $264.67, putting the current price 29.9% below that level.
Over the next 20 trading days, earnings arrive on 5 November 2026, just 23 days out, falling inside that window and following a prior quarter where EPS of -$0.96 beat the -$0.97 estimate with a 1.1% reaction. Insider activity shows 22 open-market purchases totaling $12,505,362 over the past 90 days. Seasonality over five years has averaged a 20-day return of 3.1%, positive in 4 of those years. Consensus among 3 firms stands at Hold, with a target of $186.67.
Written by AI from the Oct 12, 2026 close and checked automatically against the figures on this page.
Alpha Metallurgical Resources scores 3 supportive, 1 mixed and 2 headwinds across the 6 checklist items with data.
Six things swing traders check before a 20-day hold, read from the latest data.
3 supportive1 mixed2 headwinds
Below 50 and 200-day
Close $185.62 is below the 50-day ($186.29) and 200-day ($188.82) averages, and the 50-day is below the 200-day.
See the chart58.4, Neutral
Reading 58.4 is in the Neutral zone.
See the GekkoIndex29.9% below
Price is 29.9% below Gekko Fair Value (more than 5% below).
See fair valueLeans bullish
Last 90 days: 22 open-market insider purchases.
See smart moneyReports in 24 days
Reports on Nov 5, 2026, 24 days away — inside a typical 20-trading-day hold.
See earnings+3.1% on average
From this point in the calendar, the next 20 trading days averaged +3.1% over 5 years, rising in 4 of them.
See seasonalityA description of current data, not a recommendation. How this page works
Alpha Metallurgical Resources closed at $185.62 on Oct 12, 2026, +10.9% over the past year, inside a 52-week range of $133.64 to $253.82.
Use the left and right arrow keys to read daily values.
Put AMR on a Gekko watchlist and see its GekkoIndex, Gekko Fair Value and smart money signals update on the chart as they change.
Alpha Metallurgical Resources mines, processes, and markets coal, with a focus on metallurgical coal used in steelmaking alongside thermal coal. Its operations are concentrated in Virginia and West Virginia, where it is known for its metallurgical coal products drawn from an extensive network of mining and processing sites.
The company runs nineteen active mines together with eight coal preparation and load-out facilities, forming the backbone of how it extracts, cleans, and prepares coal for shipment. This operational base supports its production and sale of both met and thermal coal varieties.
Alpha Metallurgical Resources traces its incorporation to 2016, originally organized under the name Contura Energy, Inc. before adopting its current name in February 2021. The company is headquartered in Bristol, Tennessee, and its shares are listed on the NYSE under the ticker AMR.
Alpha Metallurgical Resources’s GekkoIndex — Gekko’s 0 to 100 smart money score — reads 58.4, in the Neutral zone, down 4.6 points over five sessions.
Down 4.6 points over five sessions, from the Accumulation zone.
Reading for Oct 12, 2026
| Zone | Readings | 5 days | 20 days | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Buying | 56 | 0.0% | −0.9% | ||
| Accumulation | 292 | −0.5% | +1.7% | ||
| Neutral (current zone) | 301 | 0.0% | −2.3% | ||
| Distribution | 27 | −0.5% | −13.2% | ||
| Selling | 6 | Too few readings yet | |||
Average AMR share-price change over the trading days after each daily reading in its GekkoIndex history. Across every stock Gekko tracks, Neutral readings averaged +1.1% over 20 days. Past behaviour doesn’t guarantee future results.
Neutral zone: No clear directional signal. About the five zones →
Alpha Metallurgical Resources trades 29.9% below Gekko Fair Value of $264.67, so the shares are undervalued on Gekko’s estimate.
Gekko’s own estimate of what Alpha Metallurgical Resources shares are worth, recalculated every trading day.
$264.67
Gekko Fair Value, Oct 10, 2026
29.9% Undervalued
At the end of Aug 2026 the price was 16.1% below the estimate.
Insiders filed 22 open-market purchases in Alpha Metallurgical Resources worth $12.51M, and no Congress trades were disclosed, in the last 90 days.
Plus buybacks, unusual options and fund positions, each dated to when it became public.
$12.51Min 22 open-market purchases
| Filed | Insider | Type | Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 8 | Courtis Kenneth S. director | Purchase | $656K |
| Sep 8 | Courtis Kenneth S. director | Purchase | $622K |
| Sep 8 | Courtis Kenneth S. director | Purchase | $475K |
| Sep 8 | Courtis Kenneth S. director | Purchase | $413K |
| Sep 8 | Courtis Kenneth S. director | Purchase | $70K |
From Form 4 filings, dated to when each was filed.
No trades in AMR were disclosed by members of Congress in the last 90 days.
From congressional disclosures, which report amounts as ranges.
Alpha Metallurgical Resources has been buying back its own shares.
From company filings.
1of the funds Gekko tracks holds AMR.
Alpha Metallurgical Resources reports on Nov 5, 2026 (24 days away), and beat the EPS estimate in 3 of its last 8 reports.
Nov 5, 2026
24 days away
| Reported | EPS | Revenue | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 7, 2026 | −$0.96 est −$0.97 | $492.9M est $521.6M | +1.1% |
| May 8, 2026 | −$0.86 est −$0.86 | $525.0M est $535.2M | −3.1% |
| Feb 27, 2026 | −$1.04 est −$0.10 | $520.5M est $523.8M | −1.7% |
| Nov 6, 2025 | −$0.42 est −$0.45 | $526.8M est $538.5M | −2.7% |
| Aug 8, 2025 | −$0.38 est −$2.38 | $550.3M est $572.1M | +20.6% |
| May 9, 2025 | −$2.60 est −$1.06 | $532.0M est $621.4M | −4.0% |
| Feb 28, 2025 | −$0.16 est −$0.16 | $617.3M est $658.2M | −11.4% |
| Nov 1, 2024 | $0.29 est $1.03 | $671.9M est $683.1M | +2.4% |
“Move” is the close of the first session after the report compared with the close of the last session before it, so it reads the same whether the company reported before the open or after the close.
Analysts’ average 12-month price target for Alpha Metallurgical Resources is $186.67, +0.6% from the last close, from 3 firms rating the stock in the last 90 days.
Each firm’s latest rating in the last 90 days: 3 firms.
| Date | Firm | Target | vs price |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 8 | UBS | $180 | −3.0% |
| Aug 20 | B. Riley Securities | $185 | −0.3% |
| Jul 28 | B. Riley Securities | $189 | +1.8% |
| Jul 21 | Jefferies | $160 | −13.8% |
Gekko doesn’t publish price predictions. These are analyst targets and historical base rates, which don’t guarantee future results.
Over the next 20 trading days from Oct 10, Alpha Metallurgical Resources averaged +3.1% across the last 5 years, rising in 4 of them.
| Window | Average | Years higher |
|---|---|---|
| Next 5 trading days | +0.6% | 3 of 5 |
| Next 10 trading days | −0.8% | 3 of 5 |
| Next 15 trading days | +1.2% | 3 of 5 |
| Next 20 trading days | +3.1% | 4 of 5 |
| Next 30 trading days | +0.9% | 3 of 5 |
For scale, AMR’s typical 20-trading-day move in either direction is about 12.1%.
Alpha Metallurgical Resources’s market cap is $2.36B and revenue of $2.07B over the last twelve months.
Coverage of Alpha Metallurgical Resources this week reads neutral: 3 positive, 4 neutral and 1 negative headlines.
Alpha Metallurgical Resources’s 6 largest industry peers by market value, with today’s move, GekkoIndex zone and gap to Gekko Fair Value.
| Stock | GekkoIndex zone | vs Fair Value |
|---|---|---|
| HCCWarrior Met Coal | Neutral | 11.8% above |
| CNRCore Natural Resources | Neutral | 36.1% below |
| ARLPAlliance Resource Partners | Accumulation | 42.5% below |
| BTUPeabody Energy | Accumulation | 44.9% below |
| NRPNatural Resource Partners LP Limited Partnership | Neutral | 32.6% below |
| HNRGHallador Energy | Accumulation | 26.9% below |
A peer links to its own page where one exists.
Alpha Metallurgical Resources’s market cap is $2.36B at the Oct 12, 2026 close of $185.62, with 12.68M shares outstanding.
The consensus analyst 12-month price target for Alpha Metallurgical Resources is $186.67, +0.6% from the last close. Of the 3 firms that rated the stock in the last 90 days, 0 rate it a buy, 3 a hold and 0 a sell. Gekko doesn’t publish price predictions of its own.
On Gekko’s estimate Alpha Metallurgical Resources is undervalued: the Oct 12, 2026 close of $185.62 is 29.9% below Gekko Fair Value of $264.67. Gekko Fair Value is recalculated every trading day, and a gap inside 5% either way counts as about fair value.
Alpha Metallurgical Resources is expected to report on Nov 5, 2026 (24 days away). Analysts expect earnings of −$0.56 per share on revenue of $564.7M. Alpha Metallurgical Resources beat the earnings estimate in 3 of its last 8 reports, moving 5.9% on average across the report.
Alpha Metallurgical Resources’s 52-week high is $253.82 and its 52-week low is $133.64; it closed at $185.62 on Oct 12, 2026, +10.9% over the past year. Over the last five years the shares peaked at $452.00 on Feb 27, 2024.
Gekko describes the data; it does not make buy or sell recommendations. On the swing-trade checklist, 3 of the 6 items with data read as supportive (fair value, smart money and seasonality), 1 as mixed (gekkoindex) and 2 as headwinds (trend and earnings risk). The checklist is a description of current data, not a recommendation.
During US trading hours the price at the top of the page is a delayed quote, refreshed every 15 minutes; everything else is rebuilt after each US market close. The GekkoIndex, Gekko Fair Value and the checklist are Gekko’s own, and the Gekko Brief is written by AI from this page’s data and checked against it before it is published. How Gekko’s data works →
Every GekkoIndex reading, insider trade, options bet and Congress disclosure plotted on the chart, plus the 5,800-name screener and trade planning tools.
Join 1,408 other traders using Gekko
Start Your FREE 7 Day Trial → Every feature unlocked. No credit card required.Type a ticker or company name. Press Esc to close.