Insider buying last 90 days
No open-market insider purchases were filed for HCC in the last 90 days.
From Form 4 filings, dated to when each was filed.
Every HCC insider filing, plotted on the chart in Gekko.Open HCC in Gekko
NYSE: HCC
Warrior Met Coal (HCC) Stock Analysis & Forecast
Sep 28 close
$91.75+2.24 (+2.5%)
Gekko Brief
AI summaryWarrior Met Coal's week centers on its shift from a pure coking-coal price story to a volume-and-cost narrative, with the Blue Creek mine's early, on-budget launch driving record Q2 sales of 3.7 million short tons and lower unit costs of $92.53 per ton. Coverage is mixed: some pieces frame the stock as undervalued relative to a $108.50 fair value estimate after a recent 15% share price fall, while another flags the shares as overvalued against a separate $69.12 value estimate despite a GF Score of 84. A third piece notes weak near and mid-term sentiment alongside a longer-term positive outlook.
The stock closed at $91.75, up 2.5% on the day, sitting between its 50-day average of $93.93 and 200-day average of $90.25, with one-month performance at -15.3% against a one-year gain of 42.9%. The GekkoIndex reads 64.2, placing HCC in the Accumulation zone, while price sits 9.6% above Gekko Fair Value of $83.73.
Earnings are scheduled for 4 November, 36 days out and beyond a typical 20-day hold; the prior report on 5 August showed EPS of $1.65 against a $1.54 estimate and a 10% reaction, with 6 beats in the last 8 quarters. Seasonality from this point has averaged a 5.7% move over the next 20 trading days across 5 years, rising in 3 of them. Analyst coverage from 4 firms shows 2 buy and 2 hold ratings, with a consensus target of $108.50. One billionaire holder is on record; no insider, Congress, or unusual options activity appears in the respective windows.
Written by AI and checked automatically against the figures on this page. Generated Sep 29, 2026 from the data above.
Warrior Met Coal price vs fair value
Close $91.75200-day averageGekko Fair Value $83.73
Warrior Met Coal quick facts
- Market cap
- $4.84B
- P/E ratio
- 21.5
- Forward P/E
- 16.2
- EPS, TTM
- $4.16
- Revenue, TTM
- $1.68B
- Profit margin
- 13%
- Dividend yield
- 0.36%
- Beta
- 0.69
- Volume
- 869,924 avg 609,815
- 1-year return
- +42.9%
- Typical daily move
- ±4.2%
- Typical 20-day move
- ±9%
- 50-day average
- $93.93
- 200-day average
- $90.25
- Next earnings
- Nov 4 after close
- Shares outstanding
- 52.80M
Warrior Met Coal swing-trade checklist
Warrior Met Coal scores 3 supportive, 1 mixed and 1 headwind across the 5 checklist items with data.
Six things swing traders check before a 20-day hold, read from the latest data.
3 supportive1 mixed1 headwind
- Trendmixed
Averages disagree
Close $91.75 sits between the 50-day ($93.93) and 200-day ($90.25) averages, or the averages disagree.
See the chart - GekkoIndexsupportive
64.2, Accumulation
Reading 64.2 is in the Accumulation zone.
See the GekkoIndex - Fair valueheadwind
9.6% above
Price is 9.6% above Gekko Fair Value (more than 5% above).
See fair value - Smart moneyno data
No data
No insider, Congress or unusual options activity in the window.
See smart money - Earnings risksupportive
Reports in 36 days
Next report Nov 4, 2026, 36 days away — outside a typical 20-trading-day hold.
See earnings - Seasonalitysupportive
+5.7% on average
From this point in the calendar, the next 20 trading days averaged +5.7% over 5 years, rising in 3 of them.
See seasonality
A description of current data, not a recommendation. How this page works
Warrior Met Coal stock chart and price history
Warrior Met Coal closed at $91.75 on Sep 28, 2026, +42.9% over the past year, inside a 52-week range of $61.87 to $111.42.
Close50-day average200-day averageVolume
Use the left and right arrow keys to read daily values.
Performance Breakdown
- 1 month
- −15.3%
- 3 months
- +13.5%
- 6 months
- −7.5%
- 1 year
- +42.9%
The full HCC chart adds GekkoIndex, insider, options, Congress and hedge fund markers, plus TrendCandles™.Open HCC in Gekko
Follow Warrior Met Coal through every session
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About Warrior Met Coal
Warrior Met Coal mines and ships coking coal, a raw material steelmakers need for blast furnace production. The company runs its operations through two underground mines and moves most of its output to customers outside the United States, making it known chiefly as a supplier to overseas steel manufacturers rather than domestic ones.
Its customer base is made up largely of blast furnace steel producers spread across Europe, South America, and Asia. Beyond coal, Warrior Met Coal also captures and sells natural gas that surfaces as a byproduct of the mining process, giving it a secondary stream of revenue tied to its core extraction work.
The company was incorporated in 2015 and is headquartered in Brookwood, Alabama, where its mining operations are also based. Its shares are listed on the NYSE under the ticker HCC.
- Listed
- NYSE
- Sector
- Energy minerals
- Industry
- Coal
- Website
- warriormetcoal.com
Warrior Met Coal GekkoIndex: the smart money zone
Warrior Met Coal’s GekkoIndex — Gekko’s 0 to 100 smart money score — reads 64.2, in the Accumulation zone, down 7.4 points over five sessions.
64.2Accumulation
Down 7.4 points over five sessions, from the Buying zone.
Reading for Sep 28, 2026
What followed past readings in each zone
| Zone | Readings | 5 days | 20 days | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Buying | 35 | +2.5% | +4.5% | ||
| Accumulation (current zone) | 229 | +1.0% | +4.6% | ||
| Neutral | 362 | +0.4% | +1.6% | ||
| Distribution | 41 | −3.4% | −8.6% | ||
| Selling | 5 | Too few readings yet | |||
Average HCC share-price change over the trading days after each daily reading in its GekkoIndex history. Across every stock Gekko tracks, Accumulation readings averaged +2.3% over 20 days. Past behaviour doesn’t guarantee future results.
Accumulation zone: Institutional interest building. About the five zones →
See every daily GekkoIndex reading plotted over the HCC price, zone by zone.Track HCC in Gekko
Is Warrior Met Coal stock overvalued? Gekko Fair Value
Warrior Met Coal trades 9.6% above Gekko Fair Value of $83.73, so the shares are overvalued on Gekko’s estimate.
Gekko’s own estimate of what Warrior Met Coal shares are worth, recalculated every trading day.
$83.73
Gekko Fair Value, Sep 29, 2026
9.6% Overvalued
Gekko Fair Value on every chart, with the gap to price updating daily.Open HCC in Gekko
Warrior Met Coal insider and Congress trading
No open-market insider purchases were filed for Warrior Met Coal, and no Congress trades were disclosed, in the last 90 days.
Plus buybacks, unusual options and fund positions, each dated to when it became public.
Congress trades last 90 days
No trades in HCC were disclosed by members of Congress in the last 90 days.
From congressional disclosures, which report amounts as ranges.
Congress disclosures for HCC, plotted on the chart in Gekko.Open HCC in Gekko
Buybacks
Warrior Met Coal has been buying back its own shares.
- Bought back, quarter ended Jun 30, 2026
- $14.77M
- As a share of market cap
- 0.30%
From company filings.
Hedge funds and billionaires quarter ended Jun 30
1of the funds Gekko tracks holds HCC.
0added0opened1trimmed0sold out
Which funds are on each side, name by name.Unlock in Gekko
Warrior Met Coal earnings: next date and track record
Warrior Met Coal reports on Nov 4, 2026, after the close (36 days away), and beat the EPS estimate in 6 of its last 8 reports.
Next earnings report
Nov 4, 2026
Expected after the close, 36 days away
- EPS estimate
- $1.47
- Revenue estimate
- $498.0M
6 of 8reports beat the EPS estimate
±8.6%average move across the report
4 of 8reports followed by a gain
Share-price move across each report
Last earnings call, Aug 5, 2026 AI summary
- What they said
- Warrior Met Coal reported Q2 2026 results marked by record sales volumes, improved pricing, and lower costs, generating over $103 million in free cash flow. Blue Creek mine reached operational status, driving significant margin expansion. Year-to-date free cash flow turned positive at $11 million. PLV FOB Australia averaged $216/ton, up 29% year-over-year. Management emphasized transition to free cash flow generation and shareholder returns phase.
- Guidance
- With Blue Creek fully operational and development spending complete, Warrior is focused on free cash flow generation, balance sheet strengthening, and long-term stockholder returns. No specific revenue or EPS targets were provided in this excerpt.
| Reported | EPS | Revenue | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 5, 2026 | $1.65 est $1.54 | $509.7M est $488.5M | +10.0% |
| Apr 30, 2026 | $1.37 est $1.44 | $458.6M est $467.6M | −4.3% |
| Feb 12, 2026 | $0.44 est $0.23 | $384.0M est $384.4M | −4.8% |
| Nov 5, 2025 | $0.70 est −$0.51 | $327.9M est $302.5M | +25.4% |
| Aug 6, 2025 | $0.11 est −$0.26 | $297.5M est $304.2M | +10.2% |
| Apr 30, 2025 | −$0.16 est −$0.23 | $299.9M est $284.6M | −6.7% |
| Feb 13, 2025 | $0.15 est $0.46 | $297.5M est $306.7M | −5.9% |
| Oct 30, 2024 | $0.80 est $0.75 | $327.7M est $306.8M | +1.4% |
“Move” is the close of the first session after the report compared with the close of the last session before it, so it reads the same whether the company reported before the open or after the close.
Warrior Met Coal stock forecast and analyst price targets
Analysts’ average 12-month price target for Warrior Met Coal is $108.50, +18.3% from the last close, from 4 firms rating the stock in the last 90 days.
$108.50consensus 12-month target, +18.3% from the last close
Now $91.75Avg $108.50
Low $90High $110
Each firm’s latest rating in the last 90 days: 4 firms.
Latest analyst actions
| Date | Firm | Target | vs price |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 6 | Benchmark Co. | — | — |
| Aug 6 | Jefferies | $110 | +19.9% |
| Aug 6 | UBS | $98 | +6.8% |
| Jul 21 | Jefferies | $110 | +19.9% |
| Jul 9 | Jefferies | $110 | +19.9% |
+4.6%average 20-day move after past Accumulation readings
+5.7%average move over the next 20 trading days in the last 5 years
±4.2%typical daily move, from the 14-day average range
Gekko doesn’t publish price predictions. These are analyst targets and historical base rates, which don’t guarantee future results.
Warrior Met Coal seasonality: the next 20 trading days
Over the next 20 trading days from Sep 29, Warrior Met Coal averaged +5.7% across the last 5 years, rising in 3 of them.
Next 20 trading days, by year
Average move and hit rate
| Window | Average | Years higher |
|---|---|---|
| Next 5 trading days | +5.7% | 3 of 5 |
| Next 10 trading days | +6.6% | 3 of 5 |
| Next 15 trading days | +4.9% | 3 of 5 |
| Next 20 trading days | +5.7% | 3 of 5 |
| Next 30 trading days | +11.0% | 3 of 5 |
For scale, HCC’s typical 20-trading-day move in either direction is about 9%.
Warrior Met Coal market cap and key statistics
Warrior Met Coal’s market cap is $4.84B, with a P/E ratio of 21.5 and revenue of $1.68B over the last twelve months.
Valuation
- Market cap
- $4.84B
- P/E ratio
- 21.5
- Forward P/E
- 16.2
- EPS, TTM
- $4.16
- Gekko Fair Value
- $83.73
Trading
- Volume
- 869,924
- Avg volume, 20 days
- 609,815
- 52-week high
- $111.42
- 52-week low
- $61.87
- Shares outstanding
- 52.80M
Financials
- Revenue, TTM
- $1.68B
- Profit margin
- 13%
- Return on equity
- 10%
- Quarterly earnings growth, YoY
- +1,448.0%
Risk and income
- Beta
- 0.69
- Typical daily move
- ±4.2%
- Typical 20-day move
- ±9%
- Dividend yield
- 0.36%
Warrior Met Coal stock news this week
Coverage of Warrior Met Coal this week reads neutral: 1 positive, 2 neutral and 1 negative headlines.
- Warrior Met Coal boosts earnings with volume growth and cost cuts, hitting record Q2 sales.Pluang, Sep 27
- Warrior Met Coal: A Volume Story Still Priced Like A Coal Price BetSeeking Alpha, Sep 27
- Warrior Met Coal (HCC) Tests Investor Patience As Blue Creek Fuels Undervalued ViewSimply Wall Street, Sep 25
- Warrior Met Coal Inc (HCC) Shares Surge 4.1% -- What GF Score of 84 Tells InvestorsGuruFocus, Sep 22
- Understanding Momentum Shifts in (HCC)Stock Traders Daily, Sep 21
Warrior Met Coal peers
Warrior Met Coal’s 6 largest industry peers by market value, with today’s move, GekkoIndex zone and gap to Gekko Fair Value.
| Stock | GekkoIndex zone | vs Fair Value |
|---|---|---|
| CNRCore Natural Resources | Accumulation | 38.1% below |
| ARLPAlliance Resource Partners | Buying | 42.9% below |
| BTUPeabody Energy | Accumulation | 45.0% below |
| AMRAlpha Metallurgical Resources | Accumulation | 32.4% below |
| NRPNatural Resource Partners LP Limited Partnership | Neutral | 32.6% below |
| HNRGHallador Energy | Accumulation | 28.9% below |
A peer links to its own page where one exists.
Warrior Met Coal stock FAQ
What is Warrior Met Coal’s market cap?
Warrior Met Coal’s market cap is $4.84B at the Sep 28, 2026 close of $91.75, with 52.80M shares outstanding. The shares trade on a P/E ratio of 21.5.
What is the Warrior Met Coal stock forecast?
The consensus analyst 12-month price target for Warrior Met Coal is $108.50, +18.3% from the last close. Of the 4 firms that rated the stock in the last 90 days, 2 rate it a buy, 2 a hold and 0 a sell. Gekko doesn’t publish price predictions of its own.
Is Warrior Met Coal stock overvalued or undervalued?
On Gekko’s estimate Warrior Met Coal is overvalued: the Sep 28, 2026 close of $91.75 is 9.6% above Gekko Fair Value of $83.73. Gekko Fair Value is recalculated every trading day, and a gap inside 5% either way counts as about fair value.
When does Warrior Met Coal report earnings next?
Warrior Met Coal is expected to report on Nov 4, 2026, after the market closes (36 days away). Analysts expect earnings of $1.47 per share on revenue of $498.0M. Warrior Met Coal beat the earnings estimate in 6 of its last 8 reports, moving 8.6% on average across the report.
What is Warrior Met Coal’s 52-week high and low?
Warrior Met Coal’s 52-week high is $111.42 and its 52-week low is $61.87; it closed at $91.75 on Sep 28, 2026, +42.9% over the past year.
Is Warrior Met Coal stock a buy right now?
Gekko describes the data; it does not make buy or sell recommendations. On the swing-trade checklist, 3 of the 5 items with data read as supportive (gekkoindex, earnings risk and seasonality), 1 as mixed (trend) and 1 as a headwind (fair value). The checklist is a description of current data, not a recommendation.
How this page works
During US trading hours the price at the top of the page is a delayed quote, refreshed every 15 minutes; everything else is rebuilt after each US market close. The GekkoIndex, Gekko Fair Value and the checklist are Gekko’s own, and the Gekko Brief is written by AI from this page’s data and checked against it before it is published. How Gekko’s data works →
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