Insider buying last 90 days
$1.00Min 1 open-market purchase
| Filed | Insider | Type | Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 21 | MINICUCCI BENITO director, officer: CEO AND PRESIDENT | Purchase | $1.00M |
From Form 4 filings, dated to when each was filed.
NYSE: ALK
Alaska Air (ALK) Stock Analysis & Forecast
Sep 28 close
$39.70−1.24 (−3.0%)
Gekko Brief
AI summaryAlaska Air shares closed at $39.70, down 3% on the day, as BMO Capital maintained its Outperform rating while trimming its price target to $50.00 from $62.50, citing a cautious outlook for airlines. The company also outlined network expansion from Seattle Paine Field, including new nonstop service to San Jose and increased frequency to California cities through summer 2027, alongside a leadership change at ground-services unit McGee Air with Ben Reed named president effective October 1.
The stock trades below both its 50-day average of $43.81 and 200-day average of $45.68, with the shorter average beneath the longer one, reflecting a broader downtrend that has taken shares down 23.6% over three months and 22.6% over the past year, though six-month returns remain positive at 9.8%. The GekkoIndex reads 63.8, placing ALK in the Accumulation zone. Against this, Gekko Fair Value stands at $49.45, putting the current price 19.7% below that mark.
Earnings are scheduled for 22 October 2026, 23 days out, falling inside a typical 20-trading-day holding window; the prior quarter's report showed a smaller-than-expected loss with a -3.6% reaction. Over the last 90 days one open-market insider purchase totaling $1,001,510 was recorded, while the last 30 days show one unusual options signal with $729,057 in call premium and no put premium. Seasonally, the next 20 trading days have averaged -5.6% over five years, with gains in 2 of those years.
Written by AI and checked automatically against the figures on this page. Generated Sep 29, 2026 from the data above.
Alaska Air price vs fair value
Close $39.70200-day averageGekko Fair Value $49.45
Alaska Air quick facts
- Market cap
- $4.42B
- P/E ratio
- —
- Forward P/E
- 7.4
- EPS, TTM
- −$1.61
- Revenue, TTM
- $14.76B
- Profit margin
- -1.2%
- Dividend yield
- —
- Beta
- 1.28
- Volume
- 3.65M avg 2.61M
- 1-year return
- −22.6%
- Typical daily move
- ±3.9%
- Typical 20-day move
- ±9.4%
- 50-day average
- $43.81
- 200-day average
- $45.68
- Next earnings
- Oct 22
- Shares outstanding
- 111.6M
Alaska Air swing-trade checklist
Alaska Air scores 3 supportive, 0 mixed and 3 headwinds across the 6 checklist items with data.
Six things swing traders check before a 20-day hold, read from the latest data.
3 supportive0 mixed3 headwinds
- Trendheadwind
Below 50 and 200-day
Close $39.70 is below the 50-day ($43.81) and 200-day ($45.68) averages, and the 50-day is below the 200-day.
See the chart - GekkoIndexsupportive
63.8, Accumulation
Reading 63.8 is in the Accumulation zone.
See the GekkoIndex - Fair valuesupportive
19.7% below
Price is 19.7% below Gekko Fair Value (more than 5% below).
See fair value - Smart moneysupportive
Leans bullish
Last 90 days: 1 open-market insider purchase. Last 30 days: 1 unusual options signal.
See smart money - Earnings riskheadwind
Reports in 23 days
Reports on Oct 22, 2026, 23 days away — inside a typical 20-trading-day hold.
See earnings - Seasonalityheadwind
−5.6% on average
From this point in the calendar, the next 20 trading days averaged −5.6% over 5 years, rising in 2 of them.
See seasonality
A description of current data, not a recommendation. How this page works
Alaska Air stock chart and price history
Alaska Air closed at $39.70 on Sep 28, 2026, −22.6% over the past year, inside a 52-week range of $33.03 to $60.63.
Close50-day average200-day averageVolume
Use the left and right arrow keys to read daily values.
Performance Breakdown
- 1 month
- −5.9%
- 3 months
- −23.6%
- 6 months
- +9.8%
- 1 year
- −22.6%
The full ALK chart adds GekkoIndex, insider, options, Congress and hedge fund markers, plus TrendCandles™.Open ALK in Gekko
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About Alaska Air
Alaska Air operates as an airline group, working through its subsidiary carriers to move both passengers and freight by air. It serves travelers and shippers across North America, reaching approximately 120 destinations on the continent. The company is recognized for providing this broad network of air transportation services rather than a single narrow route or niche offering.
The business is structured into three main segments, Mainline, Regional, and Horizon, which together handle the carrying of passengers and cargo across its route network. This segmented structure reflects how the company divides its flying operations among different parts of its overall service.
Alaska Air was originally established in Seattle, Washington, in 1932, and the company still keeps its corporate headquarters in that same city today. Its shares trade publicly and are listed on the NYSE under the ticker ALK.
- Listed
- NYSE
- Sector
- Transportation
- Industry
- Airlines
- Website
- alaskaair.com
Alaska Air GekkoIndex: the smart money zone
Alaska Air’s GekkoIndex — Gekko’s 0 to 100 smart money score — reads 63.8, in the Accumulation zone, up 3.8 points over five sessions.
63.8Accumulation
Up 3.8 points over five sessions.
Reading for Sep 28, 2026
What followed past readings in each zone
| Zone | Readings | 5 days | 20 days | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Buying | 43 | −1.0% | −4.9% | ||
| Accumulation (current zone) | 200 | −0.6% | +1.6% | ||
| Neutral | 385 | +1.2% | +2.0% | ||
| Distribution | 42 | −1.3% | +1.7% | ||
| Selling | 2 | Too few readings yet | |||
Average ALK share-price change over the trading days after each daily reading in its GekkoIndex history. Across every stock Gekko tracks, Accumulation readings averaged +2.3% over 20 days. Past behaviour doesn’t guarantee future results.
Accumulation zone: Institutional interest building. About the five zones →
See every daily GekkoIndex reading plotted over the ALK price, zone by zone.Track ALK in Gekko
Is Alaska Air stock overvalued? Gekko Fair Value
Alaska Air trades 19.7% below Gekko Fair Value of $49.45, so the shares are undervalued on Gekko’s estimate.
Gekko’s own estimate of what Alaska Air shares are worth, recalculated every trading day.
$49.45
Gekko Fair Value, Sep 29, 2026
19.7% Undervalued
Gekko Fair Value on every chart, with the gap to price updating daily.Open ALK in Gekko
Alaska Air insider and Congress trading
Insiders filed 1 open-market purchase in Alaska Air worth $1.00M, and no Congress trades were disclosed, in the last 90 days.
Plus buybacks, unusual options and fund positions, each dated to when it became public.
Congress trades last 90 days
No trades in ALK were disclosed by members of Congress in the last 90 days.
From congressional disclosures, which report amounts as ranges.
Congress disclosures for ALK, plotted on the chart in Gekko.Open ALK in Gekko
Buybacks
Alaska Air has been buying back its own shares.
- Bought back, quarter ended Jun 30, 2026
- $57.00M
- As a share of market cap
- 1.29%
- Trailing four quarters
- $285.0M
From company filings.
Unusual options activity last 30 days
1signal, 100% of the flagged premium in calls.
Latest: Bullish flow on Sep 25, $729K in unusual premium.
Hedge funds and billionaires quarter ended Jun 30
1of the funds Gekko tracks holds ALK.
1added0opened0trimmed1sold out
Every signal with its contract, strike and premium, and which funds are on each side.Unlock in Gekko
Alaska Air earnings: next date and track record
Alaska Air reports on Oct 22, 2026 (23 days away), and beat the EPS estimate in 6 of its last 8 reports.
Next earnings report
Oct 22, 2026
23 days away
- EPS estimate
- $0.49
- Revenue estimate
- $4.31B
6 of 8reports beat the EPS estimate
±5%average move across the report
2 of 8reports followed by a gain
Share-price move across each report
Last earnings call, Jul 21, 2026 AI summary
- What they said
- Alaska Air Group reported a Q2 2026 GAAP net loss of $76 million and adjusted net loss of $102 million, though results beat initial guidance. Fuel costs surged ~70% year-over-year, masking underlying business strength; the company returned to profitability in June with double-digit pretax margins. Key milestones included a dual-brand PSS migration, Europe service launch, premium revenue growth of 15%, and Starlink WiFi deployment across one-third of the fleet.
- Guidance
- Management expects a strong earnings inflection in H2 2026, citing easing fuel prices, disciplined cost execution, and sustained demand. The company projects continued unit revenue and unit cost improvements, supported by integration benefits and commercial momentum from Alaska Accelerate.
| Reported | EPS | Revenue | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Jul 21, 2026 | −$0.92 est −$0.97 | $4.07B est $4.09B | −3.6% |
| Apr 20, 2026 | $0.00 est −$1.59 | — est $3.29B | −8.7% |
| Jan 22, 2026 | $0.43 est $0.11 | $3.63B est $3.64B | +3.9% |
| Oct 23, 2025 | $1.05 est $1.09 | $3.77B est $3.76B | −8.2% |
| Jul 23, 2025 | $1.78 est $1.56 | $3.70B est $3.75B | −4.2% |
| Apr 23, 2025 | −$0.77 est −$0.77 | $3.14B est $3.17B | −7.6% |
| Jan 22, 2025 | $0.97 est $0.47 | $3.53B est $3.16B | 0.0% |
| Oct 31, 2024 | $2.25 est $2.22 | $3.07B est $3.00B | +4.1% |
“Move” is the close of the first session after the report compared with the close of the last session before it, so it reads the same whether the company reported before the open or after the close.
Alaska Air stock forecast and analyst price targets
Analysts’ average 12-month price target for Alaska Air is $57.91, +45.9% from the last close, from 12 firms rating the stock in the last 90 days.
$57.91consensus 12-month target, +45.9% from the last close
Now $39.70Avg $57.91
Low $37High $92
Each firm’s latest rating in the last 90 days: 12 firms.
Latest analyst actions
| Date | Firm | Target | vs price |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 28 | Barclays | $52 | +31.0% |
| Sep 28 | TD Cowen | — | — |
| Sep 28 | BMO Capital | $50 | +25.9% |
| Sep 23 | Bank of America Securities | $60 | +51.1% |
| Sep 23 | UBS | $54 | +36.0% |
+1.6%average 20-day move after past Accumulation readings
−5.6%average move over the next 20 trading days in the last 5 years
±3.9%typical daily move, from the 14-day average range
Gekko doesn’t publish price predictions. These are analyst targets and historical base rates, which don’t guarantee future results.
Alaska Air seasonality: the next 20 trading days
Over the next 20 trading days from Sep 29, Alaska Air averaged −5.6% across the last 5 years, rising in 2 of them.
Next 20 trading days, by year
Average move and hit rate
| Window | Average | Years higher |
|---|---|---|
| Next 5 trading days | −1.1% | 2 of 5 |
| Next 10 trading days | −2.9% | 1 of 5 |
| Next 15 trading days | −4.2% | 1 of 5 |
| Next 20 trading days | −5.6% | 2 of 5 |
| Next 30 trading days | +1.0% | 2 of 5 |
For scale, ALK’s typical 20-trading-day move in either direction is about 9.4%.
Alaska Air market cap and key statistics
Alaska Air’s market cap is $4.42B and revenue of $14.76B over the last twelve months.
Valuation
- Market cap
- $4.42B
- Forward P/E
- 7.4
- EPS, TTM
- −$1.61
- Gekko Fair Value
- $49.45
Trading
- Volume
- 3.65M
- Avg volume, 20 days
- 2.61M
- 52-week high
- $60.63
- 52-week low
- $33.03
- Shares outstanding
- 111.6M
Financials
- Revenue, TTM
- $14.76B
- Profit margin
- -1.2%
- Return on equity
- -4.6%
- Quarterly earnings growth, YoY
- −68.3%
Risk and income
- Beta
- 1.28
- Typical daily move
- ±3.9%
- Typical 20-day move
- ±9.4%
Alaska Air stock news this week
Coverage of Alaska Air this week reads positive: 7 positive, 5 neutral and 2 negative headlines.
- Alaska Air Group stock at USD 39.70 on September 28, 2026AD HOC NEWS, Sep 28
- ALK Maintained by BMO Capital -- Price Target Lowered to $50.00GuruFocus, Sep 28
- Are Options Traders Betting on a Big Move in Alaska Air Group Stock?TradingView, Sep 26
- Alaska Airlines Expands Seattle-Area Network With Paine Field GrowthTradingView, Sep 25
- Alaska Air Group (ALK) Names Ben Reed President of McGee AirTradingView, Sep 25
- Alaska Air Group (ALK) Could Be 33% Undervalued As Shares Slide 5%Yahoo Finance, Sep 25
Alaska Air peers
Alaska Air’s 6 largest industry peers by market value, with today’s move, GekkoIndex zone and gap to Gekko Fair Value.
| Stock | GekkoIndex zone | vs Fair Value |
|---|---|---|
| DALDelta Air Lines | Neutral | 8.4% below |
| UALUnited Airlines | Neutral | 34.5% below |
| LUVSouthwest Airlines | Neutral | 7.6% below |
| AALAmerican Airlines | Neutral | 38.9% below |
| CPACopa | Neutral | 15.3% below |
| SKYWSkyWest | Neutral | 3.3% below |
A peer links to its own page where one exists.
Alaska Air stock FAQ
What is Alaska Air’s market cap?
Alaska Air’s market cap is $4.42B at the Sep 28, 2026 close of $39.70, with 111.6M shares outstanding.
What is the Alaska Air stock forecast?
The consensus analyst 12-month price target for Alaska Air is $57.91, +45.9% from the last close. Of the 12 firms that rated the stock in the last 90 days, 11 rate it a buy, 0 a hold and 1 a sell. Gekko doesn’t publish price predictions of its own.
Is Alaska Air stock overvalued or undervalued?
On Gekko’s estimate Alaska Air is undervalued: the Sep 28, 2026 close of $39.70 is 19.7% below Gekko Fair Value of $49.45. Gekko Fair Value is recalculated every trading day, and a gap inside 5% either way counts as about fair value.
When does Alaska Air report earnings next?
Alaska Air is expected to report on Oct 22, 2026 (23 days away). Analysts expect earnings of $0.49 per share on revenue of $4.31B. Alaska Air beat the earnings estimate in 6 of its last 8 reports, moving 5% on average across the report.
What is Alaska Air’s 52-week high and low?
Alaska Air’s 52-week high is $60.63 and its 52-week low is $33.03; it closed at $39.70 on Sep 28, 2026, −22.6% over the past year. Over the last five years the shares peaked at $78.08 on Feb 19, 2025.
Is Alaska Air stock a buy right now?
Gekko describes the data; it does not make buy or sell recommendations. On the swing-trade checklist, 3 of the 6 items with data read as supportive (gekkoindex, fair value and smart money) and 3 as headwinds (trend, earnings risk and seasonality). The checklist is a description of current data, not a recommendation.
Is there unusual options activity in Alaska Air?
Gekko flagged 1 unusual options signal in Alaska Air over the last 30 days, with $729K of flagged premium in calls and $0 in puts. The latest, bullish flow, was on Sep 25, 2026 with $729K in unusual premium. The signal-by-signal table is in Gekko.
How this page works
During US trading hours the price at the top of the page is a delayed quote, refreshed every 15 minutes; everything else is rebuilt after each US market close. The GekkoIndex, Gekko Fair Value and the checklist are Gekko’s own, and the Gekko Brief is written by AI from this page’s data and checked against it before it is published. How Gekko’s data works →
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