Insider buying last 90 days
No open-market insider purchases were filed for AGO in the last 90 days.
From Form 4 filings, dated to when each was filed.
Every AGO insider filing, plotted on the chart in Gekko.Open AGO in Gekko
NYSE: AGO
Assured Guaranty (AGO) Stock Analysis & Forecast
Oct 12 close
$69.62−0.41 (−0.6%)
Gekko Brief
AI summaryOct 12 closeThis week's news centers on analyst sentiment and institutional positioning in Assured Guaranty (AGO). The stock carries a "Moderate Buy" consensus with an average 12-month price target of $91.00, alongside a note that a major insider recently increased their holdings by over 20%. A separate filing showed Reinhart Partners LLC trimming its stake by 4.6% during the third quarter, though institutional ownership overall remains high at 92.22%.
AGO closed at $69.62, down 0.6%, sitting below both its 50-day average of $73.45 and its 200-day average of $80.36, with the shorter average also below the longer one. The GekkoIndex reads 63.7, placing the stock in the Accumulation zone. Price sits 13.7% below Gekko Fair Value of $80.63, a gap that bears watching. Returns over the past month, three months, six months and year have all been negative.
The next earnings date falls on 5 November, 23 days out, which lands inside a typical 20-trading-day holding window; the prior report on 6 August saw EPS of $1.23 against a $1.51 estimate, with an 8.8% reaction. Seasonality from this point in the calendar has averaged a 9.4% move over the next 20 trading days across 5 years, rising in all 5. No insider, Congress, or options activity appears in the respective windows, while analysts collectively hold a consensus target of $91.00, implying 30.7% upside from current levels.
Written by AI from the Oct 12, 2026 close and checked automatically against the figures on this page.
Assured Guaranty price vs fair value
Close $69.62200-day averageGekko Fair Value $80.63
Assured Guaranty quick facts
- Market cap
- $3.08B
- P/E ratio
- 9.4
- Forward P/E
- 11.1
- EPS, TTM
- $7.51
- Revenue, TTM
- $813.0M
- Profit margin
- 43.2%
- Dividend yield
- 2.08%
- Beta
- 0.72
- Volume
- 310,879 avg 542,155
- 1-year return
- −15.0%
- Typical daily move
- ±2.1%
- Typical 20-day move
- ±4.7%
- 50-day average
- $73.45
- 200-day average
- $80.36
- Next earnings
- Nov 5
- Shares outstanding
- 43.98M
Assured Guaranty swing-trade checklist
Assured Guaranty scores 3 supportive, 0 mixed and 2 headwinds across the 5 checklist items with data.
Six things swing traders check before a 20-day hold, read from the latest data.
3 supportive0 mixed2 headwinds
- Trendheadwind
Below 50 and 200-day
Close $69.62 is below the 50-day ($73.45) and 200-day ($80.36) averages, and the 50-day is below the 200-day.
See the chart - GekkoIndexsupportive
63.7, Accumulation
Reading 63.7 is in the Accumulation zone.
See the GekkoIndex - Fair valuesupportive
13.7% below
Price is 13.7% below Gekko Fair Value (more than 5% below).
See fair value - Smart moneyno data
No data
No insider, Congress or unusual options activity in the window.
See smart money - Earnings riskheadwind
Reports in 24 days
Reports on Nov 5, 2026, 24 days away — inside a typical 20-trading-day hold.
See earnings - Seasonalitysupportive
+9.4% on average
From this point in the calendar, the next 20 trading days averaged +9.4% over 5 years, rising in 5 of them.
See seasonality
A description of current data, not a recommendation. How this page works
Assured Guaranty stock chart and price history
Assured Guaranty closed at $69.62 on Oct 12, 2026, −15.0% over the past year, inside a 52-week range of $67.24 to $92.40.
Close50-day average200-day averageVolume
Use the left and right arrow keys to read daily values.
Performance Breakdown
- 1 month
- −4.5%
- 3 months
- −15.8%
- 6 months
- −15.6%
- 1 year
- −15.0%
The full AGO chart adds GekkoIndex, insider, options, Congress and hedge fund markers, plus TrendCandles™.Open AGO in Gekko
Follow Assured Guaranty through every session
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About Assured Guaranty
Assured Guaranty provides credit protection to issuers and investors in public finance and structured finance markets, both in the United States and abroad. It is best known for financial guaranty insurance, a product that shields holders of bonds and similar debt instruments from missed scheduled payments. Its coverage spans municipal bonds such as general obligation and tax-backed debt, utility and transportation financing, healthcare and education bonds, housing and infrastructure revenue bonds, and renewable energy projects, alongside structured finance exposures like residential mortgage-backed securities and pooled corporate obligations.
The company runs through two segments, Insurance and Asset Management. Beyond its core insurance and reinsurance work, it writes specialty coverage including real estate transactions, insurance reserve financing, securitizations, and aircraft residual value insurance, and it also offers investment advisory services. Its products are sold directly to bond issuers, underwriters, and investors active in these finance markets.
Assured Guaranty was incorporated in 2003 and is headquartered in Hamilton, Bermuda. Its shares are listed on the NYSE under the ticker AGO.
- Listed
- NYSE
- Sector
- Finance
- Industry
- Specialty insurance
- Website
- assuredguaranty.com
Assured Guaranty GekkoIndex: the smart money zone
Assured Guaranty’s GekkoIndex — Gekko’s 0 to 100 smart money score — reads 63.7, in the Accumulation zone, down 2.8 points over five sessions.
63.7Accumulation
Down 2.8 points over five sessions.
Reading for Oct 12, 2026
What followed past readings in each zone
| Zone | Readings | 5 days | 20 days |
|---|---|---|---|
| Buying | 34 | +0.1% | +1.5% |
| Accumulation (current zone) | 246 | +0.3% | +0.5% |
| Neutral | 367 | −0.4% | −1.3% |
| Distribution | 24 | +1.0% | +2.2% |
| Selling | 11 | +2.2% | +6.4% |
Average AGO share-price change over the trading days after each daily reading in its GekkoIndex history. Across every stock Gekko tracks, Accumulation readings averaged +2.2% over 20 days. Past behaviour doesn’t guarantee future results.
Accumulation zone: Institutional interest building. About the five zones →
See every daily GekkoIndex reading plotted over the AGO price, zone by zone.Track AGO in Gekko
Is Assured Guaranty stock overvalued? Gekko Fair Value
Assured Guaranty trades 13.7% below Gekko Fair Value of $80.63, so the shares are undervalued on Gekko’s estimate.
Gekko’s own estimate of what Assured Guaranty shares are worth, recalculated every trading day.
$80.63
Gekko Fair Value, Oct 10, 2026
13.7% Undervalued
At the end of Aug 2026 the price was 13.9% below the estimate.
Gekko Fair ValueShare price, month end
Gekko Fair Value on every chart, with the gap to price updating daily.Open AGO in Gekko
Assured Guaranty insider and Congress trading
No open-market insider purchases were filed for Assured Guaranty, and no Congress trades were disclosed, in the last 90 days.
Plus buybacks, unusual options and fund positions, each dated to when it became public.
Congress trades last 90 days
No trades in AGO were disclosed by members of Congress in the last 90 days.
From congressional disclosures, which report amounts as ranges.
Congress disclosures for AGO, plotted on the chart in Gekko.Open AGO in Gekko
Buybacks
Assured Guaranty has been buying back its own shares.
- Bought back, quarter ended Jun 30, 2026
- $45.00M
- As a share of market cap
- 1.46%
- Trailing four quarters
- $389.0M
From company filings.
Assured Guaranty earnings: next date and track record
Assured Guaranty reports on Nov 5, 2026 (24 days away), and beat the EPS estimate in 5 of its last 8 reports.
Next earnings report
Nov 5, 2026
24 days away
- EPS estimate
- $1.63
- Revenue estimate
- $205.7M
5 of 8reports beat the EPS estimate
±4.7%average move across the report
2 of 8reports followed by a gain
Share-price move across each report
Last earnings call, Aug 6, 2026 AI summary
- What they said
- Assured Guaranty reported strong H1 2026 results with $152 million in PVP, up 48% year-over-year, led by U.S. public finance ($106M PVP) and global structured finance. Shareholders' equity, adjusted operating shareholders' equity, and adjusted book value per share all reached record highs. The annuity reinsurance platform (Assured Life Re) is on track with production milestones. S&P, KBRA, and Moody's all affirmed financial strength ratings with stable outlooks.
- Guidance
- Management expects continued demand for core products in H2 2026 and sees attractive prospects for annuity reinsurance growth. The company targets greater revenue diversification and capital structure optimization to reward shareholders while maintaining disciplined underwriting.
| Reported | EPS | Revenue | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 6, 2026 | $1.23 est $1.51 | $195.0M est $205.0M | −8.8% |
| May 7, 2026 | $2.50 est $1.50 | $261.0M est $208.6M | −8.5% |
| Feb 26, 2026 | $2.32 est $1.54 | $277.0M est $205.8M | 0.0% |
| Nov 6, 2025 | $2.42 est $1.54 | $199.0M est $196.8M | +6.1% |
| Aug 7, 2025 | $1.01 est $1.57 | $199.0M est $196.8M | −5.0% |
| May 8, 2025 | $3.18 est $3.15 | $345.0M est $231.7M | −0.3% |
| Feb 27, 2025 | $1.27 est $1.36 | $152.0M est $199.6M | −4.7% |
| Nov 11, 2024 | $2.42 est $1.35 | $269.0M est $202.6M | +4.4% |
“Move” is the close of the first session after the report compared with the close of the last session before it, so it reads the same whether the company reported before the open or after the close.
Assured Guaranty stock forecast and analyst price targets
Analysts’ average 12-month price target for Assured Guaranty is $91.00, +30.7% from the last close, from 3 firms rating the stock in the last 90 days.
$91.00consensus 12-month target, +30.7% from the last close
Now $69.62Avg $91.00
Low $85High $97
Each firm’s latest rating in the last 90 days: 3 firms.
Latest analyst actions
| Date | Firm | Target | vs price |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 25 | Roth MKM | $85 | +22.1% |
| Sep 14 | UBS | $91 | +30.7% |
| Aug 13 | KBW | $97 | +39.3% |
| Aug 7 | Roth MKM | $80 | +14.9% |
| Jul 17 | KBW | $101 | +45.1% |
+0.5%average 20-day move after past Accumulation readings
+9.4%average move over the next 20 trading days in the last 5 years
±2.1%typical daily move, from the 14-day average range
Gekko doesn’t publish price predictions. These are analyst targets and historical base rates, which don’t guarantee future results.
Assured Guaranty seasonality: the next 20 trading days
Over the next 20 trading days from Oct 10, Assured Guaranty averaged +9.4% across the last 5 years, rising in 5 of them.
Next 20 trading days, by year
Average move and hit rate
| Window | Average | Years higher |
|---|---|---|
| Next 5 trading days | +3.9% | 4 of 5 |
| Next 10 trading days | +4.6% | 4 of 5 |
| Next 15 trading days | +7.2% | 5 of 5 |
| Next 20 trading days | +9.4% | 5 of 5 |
| Next 30 trading days | +11.7% | 5 of 5 |
For scale, AGO’s typical 20-trading-day move in either direction is about 4.7%.
Assured Guaranty market cap and key statistics
Assured Guaranty’s market cap is $3.08B, with a P/E ratio of 9.4 and revenue of $813.0M over the last twelve months.
Valuation
- Market cap
- $3.08B
- P/E ratio
- 9.4
- Forward P/E
- 11.1
- EPS, TTM
- $7.51
- Gekko Fair Value
- $80.63
Trading
- Volume
- 310,879
- Avg volume, 20 days
- 542,155
- 52-week high
- $92.40
- 52-week low
- $67.24
- Shares outstanding
- 43.98M
Financials
- Revenue, TTM
- $813.0M
- Profit margin
- 43.2%
- Return on equity
- 6.7%
- Quarterly earnings growth, YoY
- −57.7%
Risk and income
- Beta
- 0.72
- Typical daily move
- ±2.1%
- Typical 20-day move
- ±4.7%
- Dividend yield
- 2.08%
Assured Guaranty stock news this week
2 headlines about Assured Guaranty from the past week, newest first, each linking to the publisher.
Assured Guaranty peers
Assured Guaranty’s 6 largest industry peers by market value, with today’s move, GekkoIndex zone and gap to Gekko Fair Value.
| Stock | GekkoIndex zone | vs Fair Value |
|---|---|---|
| FNFFidelity National Financial | Accumulation | 22.2% below |
| ORIOld Republic International | Accumulation | 9.1% below |
| FAFFirst American | Accumulation | 20.7% below |
| ESNTEssent | Accumulation | 11.7% below |
| RDNRadian | Accumulation | 13.7% below |
| STCStewart Information Services | Accumulation | 28.8% below |
A peer links to its own page where one exists.
Assured Guaranty stock FAQ
What is Assured Guaranty’s market cap?
Assured Guaranty’s market cap is $3.08B at the Oct 12, 2026 close of $69.62, with 43.98M shares outstanding. The shares trade on a P/E ratio of 9.4.
What is the Assured Guaranty stock forecast?
The consensus analyst 12-month price target for Assured Guaranty is $91.00, +30.7% from the last close. Of the 3 firms that rated the stock in the last 90 days, 3 rate it a buy, 0 a hold and 0 a sell. Gekko doesn’t publish price predictions of its own.
Is Assured Guaranty stock overvalued or undervalued?
On Gekko’s estimate Assured Guaranty is undervalued: the Oct 12, 2026 close of $69.62 is 13.7% below Gekko Fair Value of $80.63. Gekko Fair Value is recalculated every trading day, and a gap inside 5% either way counts as about fair value.
When does Assured Guaranty report earnings next?
Assured Guaranty is expected to report on Nov 5, 2026 (24 days away). Analysts expect earnings of $1.63 per share on revenue of $205.7M. Assured Guaranty beat the earnings estimate in 5 of its last 8 reports, moving 4.7% on average across the report.
What is Assured Guaranty’s 52-week high and low?
Assured Guaranty’s 52-week high is $92.40 and its 52-week low is $67.24; it closed at $69.62 on Oct 12, 2026, −15.0% over the past year. Over the last five years the shares peaked at $96.60 on Feb 28, 2024.
Is Assured Guaranty stock a buy right now?
Gekko describes the data; it does not make buy or sell recommendations. On the swing-trade checklist, 3 of the 5 items with data read as supportive (gekkoindex, fair value and seasonality) and 2 as headwinds (trend and earnings risk). The checklist is a description of current data, not a recommendation.
How this page works
During US trading hours the price at the top of the page is a delayed quote, refreshed every 15 minutes; everything else is rebuilt after each US market close. The GekkoIndex, Gekko Fair Value and the checklist are Gekko’s own, and the Gekko Brief is written by AI from this page’s data and checked against it before it is published. How Gekko’s data works →
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