Insider buying last 90 days
No open-market insider purchases were filed for WMS in the last 90 days.
From Form 4 filings, dated to when each was filed.
Every WMS insider filing, plotted on the chart in Gekko.Open WMS in Gekko
NYSE: WMS
Advanced Drainage Systems (WMS) Stock Analysis & Forecast
Sep 28 close
$130.78−2.35 (−1.8%)
Gekko Brief
AI summaryAdvanced Drainage Systems has drawn attention this week through a valuation debate following its share price pullback, with several pieces questioning whether the stock trades below fair value, citing figures such as a DCF-implied value well above its current trading price and a P/E of 20.9x below peer averages. Stephens & Co. reiterated an Overweight rating with a $175.00 price target, pointing to the company's stormwater management position and cost management, including use of lower-cost materials. This follows the company's prior quarter, which exceeded earnings estimates with $2.49 EPS and $1 billion in revenue.
WMS closed at $130.78, down 1.8%, sitting below both its 50-day average of $137.93 and 200-day average of $146.08, with a three-month return of -15.3%. The GekkoIndex reads 60.8, placing the stock in the Accumulation zone, while price stands 11% below Gekko Fair Value of $146.92.
Over the next 20 trading days, no earnings are due before 5 November, 37 days away. Smart money activity shows one unusual options signal in the past 30 days, with put premium of $535,870 and no call premium recorded, alongside one trailblazer holder. Seasonality data across 5 years shows an average 20-day return of -2.1% from this point in the calendar, positive in 2 of those years. Consensus among 8 analysts remains all-buy, with a consensus target of $182.25.
Written by AI and checked automatically against the figures on this page. Generated Sep 29, 2026 from the data above.
Advanced Drainage Systems price vs fair value
Close $130.78200-day averageGekko Fair Value $146.92
Advanced Drainage Systems quick facts
- Market cap
- $10.02B
- P/E ratio
- 22.1
- Forward P/E
- 20.8
- EPS, TTM
- $5.82
- Revenue, TTM
- $3.22B
- Profit margin
- 14%
- Dividend yield
- 0.57%
- Beta
- 1.28
- Volume
- 717,437 avg 801,000
- 1-year return
- −3.7%
- Typical daily move
- ±2.9%
- Typical 20-day move
- ±6.7%
- 50-day average
- $137.93
- 200-day average
- $146.08
- Next earnings
- Nov 5
- Shares outstanding
- 75.41M
Advanced Drainage Systems swing-trade checklist
Advanced Drainage Systems scores 3 supportive, 0 mixed and 3 headwinds across the 6 checklist items with data.
Six things swing traders check before a 20-day hold, read from the latest data.
3 supportive0 mixed3 headwinds
- Trendheadwind
Below 50 and 200-day
Close $130.78 is below the 50-day ($137.93) and 200-day ($146.08) averages, and the 50-day is below the 200-day.
See the chart - GekkoIndexsupportive
60.8, Accumulation
Reading 60.8 is in the Accumulation zone.
See the GekkoIndex - Fair valuesupportive
11.0% below
Price is 11% below Gekko Fair Value (more than 5% below).
See fair value - Smart moneyheadwind
Leans bearish
Last 30 days: 1 unusual options signal.
See smart money - Earnings risksupportive
Reports in 37 days
Next report Nov 5, 2026, 37 days away — outside a typical 20-trading-day hold.
See earnings - Seasonalityheadwind
−2.1% on average
From this point in the calendar, the next 20 trading days averaged −2.1% over 5 years, rising in 2 of them.
See seasonality
A description of current data, not a recommendation. How this page works
Advanced Drainage Systems stock chart and price history
Advanced Drainage Systems closed at $130.78 on Sep 28, 2026, −3.7% over the past year, inside a 52-week range of $124.75 to $179.32.
Close50-day average200-day averageVolume
Use the left and right arrow keys to read daily values.
Performance Breakdown
- 1 month
- −5.8%
- 3 months
- −15.3%
- 6 months
- −1.4%
- 1 year
- −3.7%
The full WMS chart adds GekkoIndex, insider, options, Congress and hedge fund markers, plus TrendCandles™.Open WMS in Gekko
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About Advanced Drainage Systems
Advanced Drainage Systems produces corrugated pipe built from thermoplastic materials, focusing on pipelines and systems that move or manage water underground. Buyers include underground construction and infrastructure customers spread across the United States, Canada, Mexico and other countries. Beyond basic piping in single, double and triple-wall polypropylene and polyethylene forms, the lineup covers leachfield chambers, EZflow aggregate bundles, mechanical aeration equipment for wastewater, septic tanks and combined treatment and dispersal units.
Its catalog extends further into storm retention and detention chambers, PVC-based drainage structures, assorted fittings, filters and separators for water quality, plus geosynthetic fabrics applied to soil reinforcement, erosion control, filtration and sub-surface drainage, together with drainage grates. The company runs through four segments, namely Pipe, International, Infiltrator, and Allied Products & Other, and its goods reach residential, non-residential, agricultural and larger infrastructure projects through close to 38 distribution centers.
Founded in 1966 and headquartered in Hilliard, Ohio, Advanced Drainage Systems has its shares listed on the NYSE under the ticker WMS.
- Listed
- NYSE
- Sector
- Producer manufacturing
- Industry
- Miscellaneous manufacturing
- Website
- adspipe.com
Advanced Drainage Systems GekkoIndex: the smart money zone
Advanced Drainage Systems’s GekkoIndex — Gekko’s 0 to 100 smart money score — reads 60.8, in the Accumulation zone, down 8.9 points over five sessions.
60.8Accumulation
Down 8.9 points over five sessions.
Reading for Sep 28, 2026
What followed past readings in each zone
| Zone | Readings | 5 days | 20 days | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Buying | 46 | +0.7% | +2.6% | ||
| Accumulation (current zone) | 215 | +1.0% | +2.1% | ||
| Neutral | 378 | −0.4% | −1.0% | ||
| Distribution | 28 | −0.1% | −2.0% | ||
| Selling | 5 | Too few readings yet | |||
Average WMS share-price change over the trading days after each daily reading in its GekkoIndex history. Across every stock Gekko tracks, Accumulation readings averaged +2.3% over 20 days. Past behaviour doesn’t guarantee future results.
Accumulation zone: Institutional interest building. About the five zones →
See every daily GekkoIndex reading plotted over the WMS price, zone by zone.Track WMS in Gekko
Is Advanced Drainage Systems stock overvalued? Gekko Fair Value
Advanced Drainage Systems trades 11.0% below Gekko Fair Value of $146.92, so the shares are undervalued on Gekko’s estimate.
Gekko’s own estimate of what Advanced Drainage Systems shares are worth, recalculated every trading day.
$146.92
Gekko Fair Value, Sep 26, 2026
11.0% Undervalued
Gekko Fair Value on every chart, with the gap to price updating daily.Open WMS in Gekko
Advanced Drainage Systems insider and Congress trading
No open-market insider purchases were filed for Advanced Drainage Systems, and no Congress trades were disclosed, in the last 90 days.
Plus buybacks, unusual options and fund positions, each dated to when it became public.
Congress trades last 90 days
No trades in WMS were disclosed by members of Congress in the last 90 days.
From congressional disclosures, which report amounts as ranges.
Congress disclosures for WMS, plotted on the chart in Gekko.Open WMS in Gekko
Buybacks
Advanced Drainage Systems has been buying back its own shares.
- Bought back, quarter ended Jun 30, 2026
- $233.2M
- As a share of market cap
- 2.33%
From company filings.
Unusual options activity last 30 days
1signal, 0% of the flagged premium in calls.
Latest: Bearish flow on Sep 4, $536K in unusual premium.
Hedge funds and billionaires quarter ended Jun 30
1of the funds Gekko tracks holds WMS.
0added0opened1trimmed0sold out
Every signal with its contract, strike and premium, and which funds are on each side.Unlock in Gekko
Advanced Drainage Systems earnings: next date and track record
Advanced Drainage Systems reports on Nov 5, 2026 (37 days away), and beat the EPS estimate in 4 of its last 8 reports.
Next earnings report
Nov 5, 2026
37 days away
- EPS estimate
- $1.80
- Revenue estimate
- $920.5M
4 of 8reports beat the EPS estimate
±7.6%average move across the report
5 of 8reports followed by a gain
Share-price move across each report
Last earnings call, May 21, 2026 AI summary
- What they said
- ADS reported strong fiscal year 26 results, exceeding top-end revenue and adjusted EBITDA guidance for the quarter and closing the $1 billion NDS acquisition. Management reorganized reporting into stormwater and wastewater segments, and highlighted 12% stormwater revenue growth (including $49M contribution from NDS) and 10% consolidated revenue growth to $677M in Q4. Adjusted EBITDA margin was strong at 27.8% in Q4. Management emphasized diversification across allied products, infiltrator, and HP pipe products, growth in high-margin products (StormTech chambers, Nyloplast capture structures, water quality product lines), and ongoing product introductions. They noted material and transportation inflation pressures (diesel, common carrier rates), some regional softness in residential and agricultural markets, and customer prebuy ahead of price increases creating a Q1 air pocket likely to normalize in Q2. The company reinforced balance sheet strength (year-end leverage 1.6x inclusive of NDS), extended debt maturities, lowered cost of debt, executed $200M buyback, and plans to target leverage below 2.0x while digesting NDS. Recycling capacity expansion and internal fleet logistics are presented as competitive advantages. They reiterated confidence in NDS synergies ($25M by year 3) and cross-selling opportunities and previewed more detail at investor day.
- Guidance
- Fiscal 2027 midpoint revenue guide roughly $3.45 billion (includes ~$300M full-year contribution from NDS). Management expects organic volumes roughly flat (flat to up low-single digits in nonresidential), first-half/second-half seasonality roughly 55-60% of revenue in the first half. Management anticipates pricing actions to offset inflation over time; SG&A guidance ~14% of revenue; target to keep leverage below 2.0x (currently 1.6x). NDS synergy target $25M run-rate by year 3, with limited assumed contribution in the first full year and cross-selling upside being pursued. Expectation that Q1 may be elevated due to prebuying, normalizing by Q2.
- Risks flagged
- Key risks mentioned include significant input cost inflation (diesel, transportation, resin), timing mismatch between price realization and cost inflation affecting margins, potential regional competitive pressure (concrete versus plastic pipe) compressing value proposition in some regions, softer residential and agricultural end-markets, an 'air pocket' from customer prebuying that could reverse, working capital increases (receivables, inventory) from inflation, macroeconomic uncertainty, and execution risks related to NDS integration and realization of synergies.
| Reported | EPS | Revenue | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| May 21, 2026 | $1.07 est $0.97 | $676.8M est $651.9M | −2.8% |
| Feb 5, 2026 | $1.27 est $1.11 | $693.4M est $687.5M | +9.4% |
| Nov 6, 2025 | $1.98 est $1.64 | $850.4M est $801.0M | +9.9% |
| Aug 7, 2025 | $1.95 est $1.75 | $690.5M est $797.3M | +15.4% |
| May 15, 2025 | $1.03 est $1.06 | $615.8M est $658.9M | +0.1% |
| Feb 6, 2025 | $1.09 est $1.23 | $690.5M est $661.7M | +3.8% |
| Nov 8, 2024 | $1.70 est $1.89 | $782.6M est $819.4M | −14.6% |
| Aug 8, 2024 | $2.06 est $2.08 | $815.3M est $831.8M | −4.8% |
“Move” is the close of the first session after the report compared with the close of the last session before it, so it reads the same whether the company reported before the open or after the close.
Advanced Drainage Systems stock forecast and analyst price targets
Analysts’ average 12-month price target for Advanced Drainage Systems is $182.25, +39.4% from the last close, from 8 firms rating the stock in the last 90 days.
$182.25consensus 12-month target, +39.4% from the last close
Now $130.78Avg $182.25
Low $175High $207
Each firm’s latest rating in the last 90 days: 8 firms.
Latest analyst actions
| Date | Firm | Target | vs price |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 22 | Jefferies | $175 | +33.8% |
| Sep 15 | KeyBanc | $185 | +41.5% |
| Aug 24 | D.A. Davidson | $190 | +45.3% |
| Aug 7 | KeyBanc | $185 | +41.5% |
| Aug 7 | UBS | $207 | +58.3% |
+2.1%average 20-day move after past Accumulation readings
−2.1%average move over the next 20 trading days in the last 5 years
±2.9%typical daily move, from the 14-day average range
Gekko doesn’t publish price predictions. These are analyst targets and historical base rates, which don’t guarantee future results.
Advanced Drainage Systems seasonality: the next 20 trading days
Over the next 20 trading days from Sep 29, Advanced Drainage Systems averaged −2.1% across the last 5 years, rising in 2 of them.
Next 20 trading days, by year
Average move and hit rate
| Window | Average | Years higher |
|---|---|---|
| Next 5 trading days | +2.5% | 4 of 5 |
| Next 10 trading days | −0.1% | 3 of 5 |
| Next 15 trading days | −1.9% | 1 of 5 |
| Next 20 trading days | −2.1% | 2 of 5 |
| Next 30 trading days | −3.5% | 2 of 5 |
For scale, WMS’s typical 20-trading-day move in either direction is about 6.7%.
Advanced Drainage Systems market cap and key statistics
Advanced Drainage Systems’s market cap is $10.02B, with a P/E ratio of 22.1 and revenue of $3.22B over the last twelve months.
Valuation
- Market cap
- $10.02B
- P/E ratio
- 22.1
- Forward P/E
- 20.8
- EPS, TTM
- $5.82
- Gekko Fair Value
- $146.92
Trading
- Volume
- 717,437
- Avg volume, 20 days
- 801,000
- 52-week high
- $179.32
- 52-week low
- $124.75
- Shares outstanding
- 75.41M
Financials
- Revenue, TTM
- $3.22B
- Profit margin
- 14%
- Return on equity
- 26.4%
- Quarterly earnings growth, YoY
- +18.8%
Risk and income
- Beta
- 1.28
- Typical daily move
- ±2.9%
- Typical 20-day move
- ±6.7%
- Dividend yield
- 0.57%
Advanced Drainage Systems stock news this week
Coverage of Advanced Drainage Systems this week reads positive: 6 positive, 0 neutral and 0 negative headlines.
- Advanced Drainage Systems (WMS) Could Be 30% Below Fair Value After Its PullbackYahoo Finance Singapore, Sep 25
- Advanced Drainage Systems (WMS) Stock Still Looks Reasonable On A 22% Five Year RunSimply Wall Street, Sep 25
- Advanced Drainage Systems (WMS) Pulls Back On Valuation Debate, Is The Discount Real?Simply Wall Street, Sep 23
- Stephens & Co. reiterates Overweight rating on Advanced Drainage Systems, $175 price targetTradingView, Sep 22
- Advanced Drainage Systems' (WMS) Overweight Rating Reaffirmed at StephensMarketBeat, Sep 21
- Bank of America Corp DE Buys New Stake in Advanced Drainage Systems, Inc. $WMSMarketBeat, Sep 21
Advanced Drainage Systems peers
Advanced Drainage Systems’s 6 largest industry peers by market value, with today’s move, GekkoIndex zone and gap to Gekko Fair Value.
| Stock | GekkoIndex zone | vs Fair Value |
|---|---|---|
| AWIArmstrong World Industries | Neutral | 8.0% below |
| BRCBrady | Accumulation | 17.5% below |
| YETIYETI | Neutral | 8.5% above |
| LCIILCI Industries | Accumulation | 24.7% below |
| MYEMyers Industries | Neutral | 2.6% below |
| DAKTDaktronics | Accumulation | 20.4% below |
A peer links to its own page where one exists.
Advanced Drainage Systems stock FAQ
What is Advanced Drainage Systems’s market cap?
Advanced Drainage Systems’s market cap is $10.02B at the Sep 28, 2026 close of $130.78, with 75.41M shares outstanding. The shares trade on a P/E ratio of 22.1.
What is the Advanced Drainage Systems stock forecast?
The consensus analyst 12-month price target for Advanced Drainage Systems is $182.25, +39.4% from the last close. Of the 8 firms that rated the stock in the last 90 days, 8 rate it a buy, 0 a hold and 0 a sell. Gekko doesn’t publish price predictions of its own.
Is Advanced Drainage Systems stock overvalued or undervalued?
On Gekko’s estimate Advanced Drainage Systems is undervalued: the Sep 28, 2026 close of $130.78 is 11.0% below Gekko Fair Value of $146.92. Gekko Fair Value is recalculated every trading day, and a gap inside 5% either way counts as about fair value.
When does Advanced Drainage Systems report earnings next?
Advanced Drainage Systems is expected to report on Nov 5, 2026 (37 days away). Analysts expect earnings of $1.80 per share on revenue of $920.5M. Advanced Drainage Systems beat the earnings estimate in 4 of its last 8 reports, moving 7.6% on average across the report.
What is Advanced Drainage Systems’s 52-week high and low?
Advanced Drainage Systems’s 52-week high is $179.32 and its 52-week low is $124.75; it closed at $130.78 on Sep 28, 2026, −3.7% over the past year. Over the last five years the shares peaked at $184.27 on May 16, 2024.
Is Advanced Drainage Systems stock a buy right now?
Gekko describes the data; it does not make buy or sell recommendations. On the swing-trade checklist, 3 of the 6 items with data read as supportive (gekkoindex, fair value and earnings risk) and 3 as headwinds (trend, smart money and seasonality). The checklist is a description of current data, not a recommendation.
Is there unusual options activity in Advanced Drainage Systems?
Gekko flagged 1 unusual options signal in Advanced Drainage Systems over the last 30 days, with $0 of flagged premium in calls and $536K in puts. The latest, bearish flow, was on Sep 4, 2026 with $536K in unusual premium. The signal-by-signal table is in Gekko.
How this page works
During US trading hours the price at the top of the page is a delayed quote, refreshed every 15 minutes; everything else is rebuilt after each US market close. The GekkoIndex, Gekko Fair Value and the checklist are Gekko’s own, and the Gekko Brief is written by AI from this page’s data and checked against it before it is published. How Gekko’s data works →
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