Stag Industrial (STAG) Stock Analysis & Forecast

Sep 28 close

$37.01+0.22 (+0.6%)

Gekko Brief

AI summary

This week's news centers on Stag Industrial's underlying operating performance and analyst sentiment. A Q1 FY2026 earnings call transcript highlighted Core FFO per share rising 6.6% year-over-year to $0.65, record leasing volume of 6 million square feet, and cash leasing spreads of 20.9%. Separately, the stock has held near $37.52, supported by an 8% year-over-year increase in Q2 2026 revenue to $224.4 million and a 20% cash rent change on new leases. Evercore ISI Group maintained its Outperform rating on the stock during this period.

STAG closed at $37.01, down slightly and sitting below both its 50-day average of $37.79 and 200-day average of $38.04, with the 50-day below the 200-day. Over the past year the stock has returned 7.2%, though the three-month return stands at -5.5%. The GekkoIndex reads 60.5, placing it in the Accumulation zone, while price sits 20.6% below Gekko Fair Value of $46.64.

Looking ahead, the next earnings report is scheduled for 4 November 2026, 36 days out and beyond a typical 20-trading-day hold. Six analysts cover the stock, with 3 rating it buy, 2 hold, and 1 sell, and a consensus target of $41.75 implying 12.8% upside. No insider, Congress, or unusual options activity appears in their respective windows. Seasonally, the next 20 trading days from this point in the calendar have averaged a 3.2% return across 5 years, rising in 3 of them, a pattern worth noting alongside the current gap to fair value.

Written by AI and checked automatically against the figures on this page. Generated Sep 29, 2026 from the data above.

Stag Industrial price vs fair value

$46.64$37.01Sep ’25Mar ’26Sep ’26
Close $37.01200-day averageGekko Fair Value $46.64

Stag Industrial quick facts

Market cap
$7.14B
P/E ratio
28.3
Forward P/E
144.9
EPS, TTM
$1.30
Revenue, TTM
$880.6M
Profit margin
28.1%
Dividend yield
4.07%
Beta
0.96
Volume
3.06M avg 1.69M
1-year return
+7.2%
Typical daily move
±1.6%
Typical 20-day move
±4%
50-day average
$37.79
200-day average
$38.04
Next earnings
Nov 4
Shares outstanding
192.8M
52-week range
$34.48$42.61

Stag Industrial swing-trade checklist

Stag Industrial scores 4 supportive, 0 mixed and 1 headwind across the 5 checklist items with data.

Six things swing traders check before a 20-day hold, read from the latest data.

4 supportive0 mixed1 headwind

  • Trendheadwind

    Below 50 and 200-day

    Close $37.01 is below the 50-day ($37.79) and 200-day ($38.04) averages, and the 50-day is below the 200-day.

    See the chart
  • GekkoIndexsupportive

    60.5, Accumulation

    Reading 60.5 is in the Accumulation zone.

    See the GekkoIndex
  • Fair valuesupportive

    20.6% below

    Price is 20.6% below Gekko Fair Value (more than 5% below).

    See fair value
  • Smart moneyno data

    No data

    No insider, Congress or unusual options activity in the window.

    See smart money
  • Earnings risksupportive

    Reports in 36 days

    Next report Nov 4, 2026, 36 days away — outside a typical 20-trading-day hold.

    See earnings
  • Seasonalitysupportive

    +3.2% on average

    From this point in the calendar, the next 20 trading days averaged +3.2% over 5 years, rising in 3 of them.

    See seasonality

A description of current data, not a recommendation. How this page works

Stag Industrial stock chart and price history

Stag Industrial closed at $37.01 on Sep 28, 2026, +7.2% over the past year, inside a 52-week range of $34.48 to $42.61.

Close50-day average200-day averageVolume
Stag Industrial share price, past year, with 50-day and 200-day moving averages and volume$36$38$40$42NovDecJan 2026FebMarAprMayJunJulAugSep37.01

Use the left and right arrow keys to read daily values.

Performance Breakdown

1 month
−0.2%
3 months
−5.5%
6 months
+2.5%
1 year
+7.2%
The full STAG chart adds GekkoIndex, insider, options, Congress and hedge fund markers, plus TrendCandles™.Open STAG in Gekko

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About Stag Industrial

Stag Industrial focuses on real estate that houses industrial tenants, buying and running properties leased to a single occupant at a time. Rather than developing new sites, the company concentrates on acquiring existing industrial buildings and handling the ongoing ownership and management work that comes with them.

Its business centers on running an operating platform built specifically for this kind of property, giving it a structured way to bring more industrial assets under its ownership and oversight over time. The setup positions the company as an owner-operator within the single-tenant industrial space rather than a broader property developer.

Stag Industrial was established by Benjamin S. Butcher on July 21, 2010, and its headquarters are located in Boston, Massachusetts. Its shares trade under the ticker STAG.

Sector
Finance
Website
stagindustrial.com

Stag Industrial GekkoIndex: the smart money zone

Stag Industrial’s GekkoIndex — Gekko’s 0 to 100 smart money score — reads 60.5, in the Accumulation zone, up 0.9 points over five sessions.

010060.5Accumulation

Up 0.9 points over five sessions, from the Neutral zone.

Reading for Sep 28, 2026

What followed past readings in each zone

ZoneReadings5 days10 days20 days50 days
Buying31+0.8%+0.8%+1.7%+3.3%
Accumulation (current zone)220+0.2%+0.4%+1.2%+2.6%
Neutral359−0.2%−0.1%−0.4%−0.5%
Distribution15+0.1%−1.9%−4.2%−2.8%
Selling0Not available

Average STAG share-price change over the trading days after each daily reading in its GekkoIndex history. Across every stock Gekko tracks, Accumulation readings averaged +2.3% over 20 days. Past behaviour doesn’t guarantee future results.

Accumulation zone: Institutional interest building. About the five zones →

See every daily GekkoIndex reading plotted over the STAG price, zone by zone.Track STAG in Gekko

Is Stag Industrial stock overvalued? Gekko Fair Value

Stag Industrial trades 20.6% below Gekko Fair Value of $46.64, so the shares are undervalued on Gekko’s estimate.

Gekko’s own estimate of what Stag Industrial shares are worth, recalculated every trading day.

$46.64

Gekko Fair Value, Sep 26, 2026

20.6% Undervalued

How Gekko Fair Value works →

Gekko Fair Value on every chart, with the gap to price updating daily.Open STAG in Gekko

Stag Industrial insider and Congress trading

No open-market insider purchases were filed for Stag Industrial, and no Congress trades were disclosed, in the last 90 days.

Plus buybacks, unusual options and fund positions, each dated to when it became public.

Insider buying last 90 days

No open-market insider purchases were filed for STAG in the last 90 days.

From Form 4 filings, dated to when each was filed.

Every STAG insider filing, plotted on the chart in Gekko.Open STAG in Gekko

Congress trades last 90 days

No trades in STAG were disclosed by members of Congress in the last 90 days.

From congressional disclosures, which report amounts as ranges.

Congress disclosures for STAG, plotted on the chart in Gekko.Open STAG in Gekko

Buybacks

Stag Industrial has been buying back its own shares.

Bought back, quarter ended Jun 30, 2026
$644K
As a share of market cap
0.01%

From company filings.

Stag Industrial earnings: next date and track record

Stag Industrial reports on Nov 4, 2026 (36 days away), and beat the EPS estimate in 6 of its last 8 reports.

6 of 8reports beat the EPS estimate
±2.1%average move across the report
5 of 8reports followed by a gain

Share-price move across each report

+0.9%Oct ’24+0.4%Feb ’25+0.6%Apr ’25+0.5%Jul ’25+1.1%Oct ’25−5.5%Feb ’26−3.5%Apr ’26−4.3%Jul ’26

Last earnings call, Jul 28, 2026 AI summary

What they said
STAG Industrial reported stabilizing industrial fundamentals in Q2 2026 with vacancy peaking and net absorption accelerating (69M sf in Q2, 111M sf YTD). Management highlighted diversified demand drivers including e-commerce, nearshoring, onshoring, and notable data center-related demand (2.3M sf leased since early 2025). Acquisition activity increased ($287.1M in Q2) and the development pipeline showed $290M under construction. Financially, Core FFO per share was $0.65 (up 3.2% YoY), same-store cash NOI grew 3.4% for the quarter (3.9% YTD), leverage is low (net debt / annualized run-rate adjusted EBITDA ~5.2x or 5.1x including $70M forward equity), and liquidity was $614M. Leasing momentum was solid: 36 new leases totaling 5.6M sf with cash/straight-line leasing spreads ~19.8% / 33.7%, retention ~75.7%, and ~92% of 2026 forecasted leasing addressed. Management emphasized selective, accretive acquisitions (Class A assets) and successful development returns (~7%+ yields) while refinancing debt to lengthen maturities and lock in favorable rates. Regional performance: inland and Midwest/Southeast/Texas markets outperform port and certain tertiary markets (Reno, El Paso, Savannah/Charleston).
Guidance
Management provided the following forward indicators: same-store average occupancy midpoint guide of ~96.75% for 2026 (spot occupancy ~96% at quarter end, average occupancy expected to be relatively flat with spot increasing late in year); leasing spreads guidance of ~18%–20% for 2026 (management expects to be toward the higher end); 92% of forecasted 2026 leasing has been addressed; management raised acquisition guidance midpoint modestly (~$50M) but noted limited contracts/LOIs; $70M of forward equity remains available to pay down revolver and match-fund pipeline; refinanced term loan with fixed blended rate ~3.53% through Mar 2027 and ~4.79% thereafter.
Risks flagged
Principal risks and headwinds called out: macroeconomic and interest-rate volatility that could slow acquisition cadence and affect pricing; limited under-contract/LOI pipeline for acquisitions; localized market weakness in certain port and tertiary markets (Savannah, Charleston, Reno, El Paso); potential deterioration in leasing spreads if market rents remain flat (management noted ~5% annual spread erosion in such a scenario); timing risk on dispositions (processes take time); execution risk in ramping development beyond current capacity.
ReportedEPSSurpriseRevenueSurpriseMove
Jul 28, 2026$0.65
est $0.65
0.0%$223.5M
est $223.0M
+0.2%−4.3%
Apr 28, 2026$0.25
est $0.24
+4.2%$223.8M
est $221.5M
+1.1%−3.5%
Feb 11, 2026$0.44
est $0.22
+100.0%$220.2M
est $212.9M
+3.4%−5.5%
Oct 29, 2025$0.26
est $0.26
0.0%$211.1M
est $214.2M
−1.4%+1.1%
Jul 29, 2025$0.27
est $0.22
+22.7%$207.6M
est $211.5M
−1.8%+0.5%
Apr 29, 2025$0.49
est $0.20
+145.0%$205.6M
est $202.0M
+1.8%+0.6%
Feb 12, 2025$0.21
est $0.21
+2.2%$199.3M
est $193.7M
+2.9%+0.4%
Oct 29, 2024$0.21
est $0.17
+23.5%$190.7M
est $193.0M
−1.1%+0.9%

“Move” is the close of the first session after the report compared with the close of the last session before it, so it reads the same whether the company reported before the open or after the close.

Stag Industrial stock forecast and analyst price targets

Analysts’ average 12-month price target for Stag Industrial is $41.75, +12.8% from the last close, from 6 firms rating the stock in the last 90 days.

$41.75consensus 12-month target, +12.8% from the last close
Low $38High $46
Buy3
Hold2
Sell1

Each firm’s latest rating in the last 90 days: 6 firms.

Latest analyst actions

DateFirmRatingTargetvs price
Sep 21Evercore ISIBuy, maintained$42+13.5%
Sep 14Evercore ISIBuy, maintained$43+16.2%
Sep 1Wells FargoHold, reiterated$38+2.7%
Aug 31Robert W. BairdBuy, upgraded$42+13.5%
Aug 10Wells FargoHold, maintained$40+8.1%
+1.2%average 20-day move after past Accumulation readings
+3.2%average move over the next 20 trading days in the last 5 years
±1.6%typical daily move, from the 14-day average range

Gekko doesn’t publish price predictions. These are analyst targets and historical base rates, which don’t guarantee future results.

Stag Industrial seasonality: the next 20 trading days

Over the next 20 trading days from Sep 29, Stag Industrial averaged +3.2% across the last 5 years, rising in 3 of them.

Next 20 trading days, by year

+9.2%2021+8.5%2022−6.6%2023−4.1%2024+10.3%2025

Average move and hit rate

WindowAverageYears higher
Next 5 trading days+0.3%2 of 5
Next 10 trading days+1.1%3 of 5
Next 15 trading days+2.5%2 of 5
Next 20 trading days+3.2%3 of 5
Next 30 trading days+6.6%4 of 5

For scale, STAG’s typical 20-trading-day move in either direction is about 4%.

Stag Industrial market cap and key statistics

Stag Industrial’s market cap is $7.14B, with a P/E ratio of 28.3 and revenue of $880.6M over the last twelve months.

Valuation

Market cap
$7.14B
P/E ratio
28.3
Forward P/E
144.9
EPS, TTM
$1.30
Gekko Fair Value
$46.64

Trading

Volume
3.06M
Avg volume, 20 days
1.69M
52-week high
$42.61
52-week low
$34.48
Shares outstanding
192.8M

Financials

Revenue, TTM
$880.6M
Profit margin
28.1%
Return on equity
7%
Quarterly earnings growth, YoY
+3.3%

Risk and income

Beta
0.96
Typical daily move
±1.6%
Typical 20-day move
±4%
Dividend yield
4.07%

Stag Industrial stock news this week

Coverage of Stag Industrial this week reads positive: 2 positive, 1 neutral and 0 negative headlines.

News sentiment positive

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Stag Industrial stock FAQ

What is Stag Industrial’s market cap?

Stag Industrial’s market cap is $7.14B at the Sep 28, 2026 close of $37.01, with 192.8M shares outstanding. The shares trade on a P/E ratio of 28.3.

What is the Stag Industrial stock forecast?

The consensus analyst 12-month price target for Stag Industrial is $41.75, +12.8% from the last close. Of the 6 firms that rated the stock in the last 90 days, 3 rate it a buy, 2 a hold and 1 a sell. Gekko doesn’t publish price predictions of its own.

Is Stag Industrial stock overvalued or undervalued?

On Gekko’s estimate Stag Industrial is undervalued: the Sep 28, 2026 close of $37.01 is 20.6% below Gekko Fair Value of $46.64. Gekko Fair Value is recalculated every trading day, and a gap inside 5% either way counts as about fair value.

When does Stag Industrial report earnings next?

Stag Industrial is expected to report on Nov 4, 2026 (36 days away). Analysts expect earnings of $0.27 per share on revenue of $226.9M. Stag Industrial beat the earnings estimate in 6 of its last 8 reports, moving 2.1% on average across the report.

What is Stag Industrial’s 52-week high and low?

Stag Industrial’s 52-week high is $42.61 and its 52-week low is $34.48; it closed at $37.01 on Sep 28, 2026, +7.2% over the past year. Over the last five years the shares peaked at $48.27 on Dec 31, 2021.

Is Stag Industrial stock a buy right now?

Gekko describes the data; it does not make buy or sell recommendations. On the swing-trade checklist, 4 of the 5 items with data read as supportive (gekkoindex, fair value, earnings risk and seasonality) and 1 as a headwind (trend). The checklist is a description of current data, not a recommendation.

How this page works

During US trading hours the price at the top of the page is a delayed quote, refreshed every 15 minutes; everything else is rebuilt after each US market close. The GekkoIndex, Gekko Fair Value and the checklist are Gekko’s own, and the Gekko Brief is written by AI from this page’s data and checked against it before it is published. How Gekko’s data works →

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