Insider buying last 90 days
No open-market insider purchases were filed for NTRA in the last 90 days.
From Form 4 filings, dated to when each was filed.
Every NTRA insider filing, plotted on the chart in Gekko.Open NTRA in Gekko
NASDAQ: NTRA
Natera (NTRA) Stock Analysis & Forecast
$369.39+3.08 (+0.8%)
Close on Sep 18, 2026. Page updated Sep 19, 9:17 pm ET.
Gekko Brief
AI summaryNatera closes at $369.39, up 0.8%, sitting above both its 50-day average of $304.28 and 200-day average of $240.69, near its 52-week high of $369.69. The GekkoIndex reads 42.5, placing the stock in the Distribution zone, down 11.2 over the last five readings. Price sits 15.3% above Gekko Fair Value of $320.30, a gap wider than the 5% threshold typically flagged.
This week's attention centers on insider transactions and conference commentary. CEO Steven Chapman sold 1,698 shares for $545,000 under a Rule 10b5-1 plan, leaving him with 98,199 directly held shares, while Executive Chairman Matthew Rabinowitz sold 50,000 shares for $16.4 million, also through a pre-arranged plan. Separately, Natera presented at the Morgan Stanley 24th Annual Global Healthcare Conference, where management discussed oncology demand tied to its mrD business, women's health momentum, and upcoming product launches.
Natera's next earnings report is scheduled for 5 November 2026, after the close, 46 days out and outside a typical 20-trading-day holding window. The prior quarter showed an EPS of -0.47 matching estimates, with a 17.3% reaction, and the company has beaten estimates in 3 of the last 8 quarters, averaging an 8.4% absolute move on results. Three billionaire holders and one trailblazer holder are noted, while insider, Congress, and options activity show no recorded signals in their respective windows. Seasonally, the next 20 trading days have averaged -6.8% over 5 years, rising in only 1 of those years, a pattern worth noting alongside the current Distribution reading.
Written by AI and checked automatically against the figures on this page. Generated Sep 20, 2026 from the data above.
Price vs fair value
Close $369.39200-day averageGekko Fair Value $320.30
Key stats
- Market cap
- $52.90B
- P/E ratio
- —
- Forward P/E
- 5000
- EPS, TTM
- −$1.36
- Revenue, TTM
- $2.71B
- Profit margin
- -7.1%
- Dividend yield
- —
- Beta
- 1.53
- Volume
- 3.61M avg 1.26M
- 1-year return
- +110.6%
- Typical daily move
- ±3.1%
- Typical 20-day move
- ±8.5%
- 50-day average
- $304.28
- 200-day average
- $240.69
- Next earnings
- Nov 5 after close
- Shares outstanding
- 144.1M
Natera swing-trade checklist
Natera scores 2 supportive, 0 mixed and 3 headwinds across the 5 checklist items with data.
Six things swing traders check before a 20-day hold, read from the latest data.
2 supportive0 mixed3 headwinds
- Trendsupportive
Above 50 and 200-day
Close $369.39 is above the 50-day ($304.28) and 200-day ($240.69) averages, and the 50-day is above the 200-day.
See the chart - GekkoIndexheadwind
42.5, Distribution
Reading 42.5 is in the Distribution zone.
See the GekkoIndex - Fair valueheadwind
15.3% above
Price is 15.3% above Gekko Fair Value (more than 5% above).
See fair value - Smart moneyno data
No data
No insider, Congress or unusual options activity in the window.
See smart money - Earnings risksupportive
Reports in 46 days
Next report Nov 5, 2026, 46 days away — outside a typical 20-trading-day hold.
See earnings - Seasonalityheadwind
−6.8% on average
From this point in the calendar, the next 20 trading days averaged −6.8% over 5 years, rising in 1 of them.
See seasonality
A description of current data, not a recommendation. How this page works
Natera stock chart and price history
Natera closed at $369.39 on Sep 18, 2026, +110.6% over the past year, inside a 52-week range of $157.43 to $369.69.
Close50-day average200-day averageVolume
Use the left and right arrow keys to read daily values.
Performance Breakdown
- 1 month
- +13.6%
- 3 months
- +59.6%
- 6 months
- +82.2%
- 1 year
- +110.6%
The full NTRA chart adds GekkoIndex, insider, options, Congress and hedge fund markers, plus TrendCandles™.Open NTRA in Gekko
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About Natera
Natera develops and sells molecular testing services used in reproductive health and beyond. Its offerings include prenatal screening for chromosomal issues and twin zygosity, tests for single-gene disorders and carrier status, screening used during IVF cycles, analysis of pregnancy loss, and paternity testing performed during pregnancy using blood samples from both parents. Outside of reproductive health, it offers a circulating tumor DNA test that screens for a broad set of mutations regardless of a patient's specific tumor profile, along with a test used to monitor organ transplant rejection.
The company also runs a cloud-based platform that gives laboratory clients access to its algorithms and bioinformatics tools so they can build and offer their own tests. Natera reaches customers through its own sales staff as well as roughly 100 partner laboratories and distributors, and it has established partnerships with BGI Genomics for genetic testing assays and with Foundation Medicine for circulating tumor DNA monitoring tools.
Natera was founded in 2003 and is based in Austin, Texas. Its shares are listed on the NASDAQ under the ticker NTRA.
- Listed
- NASDAQ
- Sector
- Health technology
- Industry
- Biotechnology
- Website
- natera.com
Natera GekkoIndex: the smart money zone
Natera’s GekkoIndex — Gekko’s 0 to 100 smart money score — reads 42.5, in the Distribution zone, down 11.2 points over five sessions.
42.5Distribution
Down 11.2 points over five sessions, from the Neutral zone.
Reading for Sep 18, 2026
What followed past readings in each zone
| Zone | Readings | 5 days | 20 days | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Buying | 18 | +1.3% | +7.4% | ||
| Accumulation | 116 | +1.6% | +8.1% | ||
| Neutral | 464 | +1.3% | +5.1% | ||
| Distribution (current zone) | 58 | +1.8% | +5.1% | ||
| Selling | 6 | Too few readings yet | |||
Average NTRA share-price change over the trading days after each daily reading in its GekkoIndex history. Across every stock Gekko tracks, Distribution readings averaged +1.3% over 20 days. Past behaviour doesn’t guarantee future results.
Distribution zone: Institutions potentially offloading. About the five zones →
See every daily GekkoIndex reading plotted over the NTRA price, zone by zone.Track NTRA in Gekko
Is Natera stock overvalued? Gekko Fair Value
Natera trades 15.3% above Gekko Fair Value of $320.30, so the shares are overvalued on Gekko’s estimate.
Gekko’s own estimate of what Natera shares are worth, recalculated every trading day.
$320.30
Gekko Fair Value, Sep 19, 2026
15.3% Overvalued
Gekko Fair Value on every chart, with the gap to price updating daily.Open NTRA in Gekko
Natera insider and Congress trading
No open-market insider purchases were filed for Natera, and no Congress trades were disclosed, in the last 90 days.
Plus buybacks, unusual options and fund positions, each dated to when it became public.
Congress trades last 90 days
No trades in NTRA were disclosed by members of Congress in the last 90 days.
From congressional disclosures, which report amounts as ranges.
Congress disclosures for NTRA, plotted on the chart in Gekko.Open NTRA in Gekko
Buybacks
Natera has been buying back its own shares.
- Bought back, quarter ended Jun 30, 2026
- $16.43M
- As a share of market cap
- 0.03%
From company filings.
Hedge funds and billionaires quarter ended Jun 30
4of the funds Gekko tracks hold NTRA.
1added2opened1trimmed0sold out
Which funds are on each side, name by name.Unlock in Gekko
Natera earnings: next date and track record
Natera reports on Nov 5, 2026, after the close (46 days away), and beat the EPS estimate in 3 of its last 8 reports.
Next earnings report
Nov 5, 2026
Expected after the close, 46 days away
- EPS estimate
- −$0.22
- Revenue estimate
- $707.9M
3 of 8reports beat the EPS estimate
±8.4%average move across the report
3 of 8reports followed by a gain
Share-price move across each report
Last earnings call, Aug 6, 2026 AI summary
- What they said
- Natera reported an exceptional Q2 2026 quarter with record volumes (≈1.044 million tests), revenue of ~$753 million (≈38% YoY growth), and strong gross margins (~65%). Key commercial and clinical milestones drove performance: Signatera (MRD) processed ~283k clinical MRD units (≈56% YoY growth), achieved FDA companion diagnostic approval and Japanese PMDA approval, and received an NCCN Category 1 recommendation for Signatera-guided adjuvant treatment in muscle-invasive bladder cancer. Management highlighted product launches and enhancements in women's health (enhanced Panorama), continued investment and accelerating readouts from prospective oncology trials (>70 prospective studies), positive cash inflow, narrowing operating losses, and improved DSO. Management raised FY revenue guidance by $100M at the midpoint to $2.85B–$2.91B while holding OpEx guidance steady. During Q&A, management expressed strong confidence in the durability of Signatera growth, the value of prospective evidence, commercial execution and salesforce productivity, and favorable long-term ASP trajectory, while acknowledging timing and reimbursement uncertainties and ongoing COGS optimization needs.
- Guidance
- Raised FY revenue guidance to $2.85 billion to $2.91 billion (up $100M at midpoint). Management is holding operating expense guidance steady. Signatera ASP assumption in guide: stable at $12.75 through year-end; management noted potential upside (another ~$25 ASP upside possible near-term and longer-term path to $2,000 ASP with MolDx coverage across additional indications).
- Risks flagged
- Forward-looking caution regarding future results; litigation expenses; reimbursement timing and uncertainty (MolDx timing, payer coverage process, biomarker state true-ups expected to be linear, not lump-sum); competition in MRD space (new entrants); short-term COGS inefficiencies for newly launched products; timing risk on prospective study readouts and coverage rollouts; dependency on successful commercialization in markets like Japan.
| Reported | EPS | Revenue | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 6, 2026 | −$0.47 est −$0.47 | $752.8M est $661.2M | +17.3% |
| May 7, 2026 | −$0.60 est −$0.55 | $696.6M est $617.1M | −9.7% |
| Feb 26, 2026 | $0.36 est −$0.50 | $665.5M est $604.0M | −1.8% |
| Nov 6, 2025 | −$0.64 est −$0.39 | $592.2M est $513.5M | −0.2% |
| Aug 7, 2025 | −$0.74 est −$0.62 | $546.6M est $476.3M | +10.0% |
| May 8, 2025 | −$0.50 est −$0.70 | $501.8M est $446.2M | −5.1% |
| Feb 27, 2025 | −$0.41 est −$0.35 | $476.1M est $435.6M | −3.1% |
| Nov 12, 2024 | −$0.26 est −$0.57 | $439.8M est $361.4M | +20.2% |
“Move” is the close of the first session after the report compared with the close of the last session before it, so it reads the same whether the company reported before the open or after the close.
Natera stock forecast and analyst price targets
Analysts’ average 12-month price target for Natera is $344.33, −6.8% from the last close, from 22 firms rating the stock in the last 90 days.
$344.33consensus 12-month target, −6.8% from the last close
Now $369.39Avg $344.33
Low $270High $435
Each firm’s latest rating in the last 90 days: 22 firms.
Latest analyst actions
| Date | Firm | Target | vs price |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 14 | Morgan Stanley | $355 | −3.9% |
| Sep 9 | Bernstein | $365 | −1.2% |
| Sep 9 | UBS | $435 | +17.8% |
| Sep 8 | Rothschild & Co Redburn | $385 | +4.2% |
| Aug 24 | Piper Sandler | $363.50 | −1.6% |
+5.1%average 20-day move after past Distribution readings
−6.8%average move over the next 20 trading days in the last 5 years
±3.1%typical daily move, from the 14-day average range
Gekko doesn’t publish price predictions. These are analyst targets and historical base rates, which don’t guarantee future results.
Natera seasonality: the next 20 trading days
Over the next 20 trading days from Sep 19, Natera averaged −6.8% across the last 5 years, rising in 1 of them.
Next 20 trading days, by year
Average move and hit rate
| Window | Average | Years higher |
|---|---|---|
| Next 5 trading days | −7.9% | 0 of 5 |
| Next 10 trading days | −7.2% | 1 of 5 |
| Next 15 trading days | −7.9% | 1 of 5 |
| Next 20 trading days | −6.8% | 1 of 5 |
| Next 30 trading days | −3.4% | 1 of 5 |
For scale, NTRA’s typical 20-trading-day move in either direction is about 8.5%.
Natera market cap and key statistics
Natera’s market cap is $52.90B and revenue of $2.71B over the last twelve months.
Valuation
- Market cap
- $52.90B
- Forward P/E
- 5000
- EPS, TTM
- −$1.36
- Gekko Fair Value
- $320.30
Trading
- Volume
- 3.61M
- Avg volume, 20 days
- 1.26M
- 52-week high
- $369.69
- 52-week low
- $157.43
- Shares outstanding
- 144.1M
Financials
- Revenue, TTM
- $2.71B
- Profit margin
- -7.1%
- Return on equity
- -12.5%
- Quarterly earnings growth, YoY
- 0.0%
Risk and income
- Beta
- 1.53
- Typical daily move
- ±3.1%
- Typical 20-day move
- ±8.5%
Natera stock news this week
3 headlines about Natera from the past week, newest first, each linking to the publisher.
- Natera CEO Steven Chapman Sells 1,698 Shares for $545,000Fool - Investing News, Sep 18
- Natera at Morgan Stanley conference: mrD growth, new bets By Investing.comInvesting.com Canada, Sep 14
- Natera executive chairman Matthew Rabinowitz sells $16.4m in sharesInvesting.com, Sep 13
Natera peers
Natera’s 6 largest industry peers by market value, with today’s move, GekkoIndex zone and gap to Gekko Fair Value.
| Stock | GekkoIndex zone | vs Fair Value |
|---|---|---|
| AMGNAmgen | Accumulation | 31.3% below |
| GILDGilead Sciences | Neutral | 3.4% above |
| MRNAModerna | Neutral | 44.3% above |
| IQVIQVIA | Neutral | 10.6% above |
| UTHRUnited Therapeutics | Accumulation | 25.0% below |
| NBIXNeurocrine Biosciences | Buying | 38.9% below |
A peer links to its own page where one exists.
Natera stock FAQ
What is Natera’s market cap?
Natera’s market cap is $52.90B at the Sep 18, 2026 close of $369.39, with 144.1M shares outstanding.
What is the Natera stock forecast?
The consensus analyst 12-month price target for Natera is $344.33, −6.8% from the last close. Of the 22 firms that rated the stock in the last 90 days, 20 rate it a buy, 2 a hold and 0 a sell. Gekko doesn’t publish price predictions of its own.
Is Natera stock overvalued or undervalued?
On Gekko’s estimate Natera is overvalued: the Sep 18, 2026 close of $369.39 is 15.3% above Gekko Fair Value of $320.30. Gekko Fair Value is recalculated every trading day, and a gap inside 5% either way counts as about fair value.
When does Natera report earnings next?
Natera is expected to report on Nov 5, 2026, after the market closes (46 days away). Analysts expect earnings of −$0.22 per share on revenue of $707.9M. Natera beat the earnings estimate in 3 of its last 8 reports, moving 8.4% on average across the report.
What is Natera’s 52-week high and low?
Natera’s 52-week high is $369.69 and its 52-week low is $157.43; it closed at $369.39 on Sep 18, 2026, +110.6% over the past year.
Is Natera stock a buy right now?
Gekko describes the data; it does not make buy or sell recommendations. On the swing-trade checklist, 2 of the 5 items with data read as supportive (trend and earnings risk) and 3 as headwinds (gekkoindex, fair value and seasonality). The checklist is a description of current data, not a recommendation.
How this page works
Prices and signals update after every US market close; the GekkoIndex, Gekko Fair Value and the checklist are Gekko’s own, and the Gekko Brief is written by AI from this page’s data and checked against it before it is published. How Gekko’s data works →
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