Insider buying last 90 days
No open-market insider purchases were filed for MRNA in the last 90 days.
From Form 4 filings, dated to when each was filed.
Every MRNA insider filing, plotted on the chart in Gekko.Open MRNA in Gekko
NASDAQ: MRNA
Moderna (MRNA) Stock Analysis & Forecast
$154.04−4.03 (−2.5%)
Close on Sep 18, 2026. Page updated Sep 19, 9:17 pm ET.
Gekko Brief
AI summaryModerna (MRNA) closes at $154.04, down 2.5% on the day, though still well above its 50-day average of $98.17 and 200-day average of $60.25. The GekkoIndex reads 53.3, placing the stock in the Neutral zone. Price sits 44.3% above Gekko Fair Value of $106.73, a gap that bears watching.
The stock's move this week traces to its Phase 3 personalized cancer-vaccine program with Merck, including Phase 2b melanoma data showing a 49% reduction in recurrence risk, which helped drive a one-month rally of 137% and a 6% gain on the day cited in that coverage. Shares also rose 7.1% following a presentation at the Morgan Stanley Global Healthcare Conference. Separately, Bank of America Corp DE disclosed a new position of 1.41 million shares valued at approximately $98.72 million, with BlackRock and Theleme Partners also adjusting holdings; institutional ownership is described as 75.33% of the stock.
Looking ahead to the next 20 trading days, Moderna's next earnings report is scheduled for 5 November 2026, 46 days out, before the open. Over the last 90 days, Congress recorded 1 buy and 0 sells, while the last 30 days show 7 unusual options signals, with call premium of $38,750,572 versus put premium of $11,792,839. Seasonality over 5 years shows an average 20-day return of -9.2% from this point, rising in 2 of those years.
Written by AI and checked automatically against the figures on this page. Generated Sep 20, 2026 from the data above.
Price vs fair value
Close $154.04200-day averageGekko Fair Value $106.73
Key stats
- Market cap
- $61.12B
- P/E ratio
- —
- Forward P/E
- 23
- EPS, TTM
- −$8.66
- Revenue, TTM
- $2.23B
- Profit margin
- -141.4%
- Dividend yield
- —
- Beta
- 1.11
- Volume
- 20.21M avg 21.83M
- 1-year return
- +516.2%
- Typical daily move
- ±6.7%
- Typical 20-day move
- ±12.4%
- 50-day average
- $98.17
- 200-day average
- $60.25
- Next earnings
- Nov 5 before open
- Shares outstanding
- 399.2M
Moderna swing-trade checklist
Moderna scores 3 supportive, 1 mixed and 2 headwinds across the 6 checklist items with data.
Six things swing traders check before a 20-day hold, read from the latest data.
3 supportive1 mixed2 headwinds
- Trendsupportive
Above 50 and 200-day
Close $154.04 is above the 50-day ($98.17) and 200-day ($60.25) averages, and the 50-day is above the 200-day.
See the chart - GekkoIndexmixed
53.3, Neutral
Reading 53.3 is in the Neutral zone.
See the GekkoIndex - Fair valueheadwind
44.3% above
Price is 44.3% above Gekko Fair Value (more than 5% above).
See fair value - Smart moneysupportive
Leans bullish
Last 90 days: Congress 1 buy / 0 sales. Last 30 days: 7 unusual options signals.
See smart money - Earnings risksupportive
Reports in 46 days
Next report Nov 5, 2026, 46 days away — outside a typical 20-trading-day hold.
See earnings - Seasonalityheadwind
−9.2% on average
From this point in the calendar, the next 20 trading days averaged −9.2% over 5 years, rising in 2 of them.
See seasonality
A description of current data, not a recommendation. How this page works
Moderna stock chart and price history
Moderna closed at $154.04 on Sep 18, 2026, +516.2% over the past year, inside a 52-week range of $22.28 to $176.66.
Close50-day average200-day averageVolume
Use the left and right arrow keys to read daily values.
Performance Breakdown
- 1 month
- −11.7%
- 3 months
- +140.8%
- 6 months
- +194.1%
- 1 year
- +516.2%
The full MRNA chart adds GekkoIndex, insider, options, Congress and hedge fund markers, plus TrendCandles™.Open MRNA in Gekko
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About Moderna
Moderna works in messenger RNA science, turning that platform into vaccines and other medicines rather than a single product line. It has built a name around its work on infectious disease shots, including coverage for COVID-19, flu and RSV, while also pursuing treatments aimed at cancer, rare diseases, heart conditions and immune-system disorders.
Its pipeline stretches beyond respiratory illness into vaccines for persistent viral infections such as CMV, EBV, HIV, HSV and VZV, along with candidates addressing Zika and Nipah. Alongside this, the company is developing cancer vaccines, tumor-targeted immuno-oncology treatments, regenerative and inhaled therapies, and medicines aimed at cells and secreted proteins. Much of this work is carried out with partners, among them AstraZeneca, Merck, Vertex Pharmaceuticals, Carisma Therapeutics, Metagenomi, Chiesi Farmaceutici, DARPA, BARDA, the Institute for Life Changing Medicines and the Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation, with activity extending across the United States, Europe and other regions.
Moderna traces its start to 2010, when it was known as Moderna Therapeutics, taking its current name in 2018. It is headquartered in Cambridge, Massachusetts, and its shares are listed on the NASDAQ under the ticker MRNA.
- Listed
- NASDAQ
- Sector
- Health technology
- Industry
- Biotechnology
- Website
- modernatx.com
Moderna GekkoIndex: the smart money zone
Moderna’s GekkoIndex — Gekko’s 0 to 100 smart money score — reads 53.3, in the Neutral zone, down 0.9 points over five sessions.
53.3Neutral
Down 0.9 points over five sessions.
Reading for Sep 18, 2026
What followed past readings in each zone
| Zone | Readings | 5 days | 20 days | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Buying | 74 | +1.2% | −6.9% | ||
| Accumulation | 241 | −0.5% | +7.5% | ||
| Neutral (current zone) | 306 | +2.8% | +5.2% | ||
| Distribution | 37 | −1.3% | −2.8% | ||
| Selling | 4 | Too few readings yet | |||
Average MRNA share-price change over the trading days after each daily reading in its GekkoIndex history. Across every stock Gekko tracks, Neutral readings averaged +1.2% over 20 days. Past behaviour doesn’t guarantee future results.
Neutral zone: No clear directional signal. About the five zones →
See every daily GekkoIndex reading plotted over the MRNA price, zone by zone.Track MRNA in Gekko
Is Moderna stock overvalued? Gekko Fair Value
Moderna trades 44.3% above Gekko Fair Value of $106.73, so the shares are overvalued on Gekko’s estimate.
Gekko’s own estimate of what Moderna shares are worth, recalculated every trading day.
$106.73
Gekko Fair Value, Sep 19, 2026
44.3% Overvalued
Gekko Fair Value on every chart, with the gap to price updating daily.Open MRNA in Gekko
Moderna insider and Congress trading
No open-market insider purchases were filed for Moderna, and members of Congress disclosed 1 purchase and 0 sales, in the last 90 days.
Plus buybacks, unusual options and fund positions, each dated to when it became public.
Congress trades last 90 days
1trade disclosed: 1 purchase and 0 sales.
| Member | Amount | Disclosed |
|---|---|---|
| Maria Elvira Salazar House, FL, purchase | $1,001 - $15,000 | Sep 10 traded Aug 19 |
From congressional disclosures, which report amounts as ranges.
Buybacks
Moderna has been buying back its own shares.
- Bought back, quarter ended Jun 30, 2026
- $2.00M
- As a share of market cap
- 0.00%
From company filings.
Unusual options activity last 30 days
7signals, 77% of the flagged premium in calls.
Latest: Bullish flow on Sep 18, $11.16M in unusual premium.
Hedge funds and billionaires quarter ended Mar 31
0of the funds Gekko tracks hold MRNA.
0added0opened0trimmed2sold out
Every signal with its contract, strike and premium, and which funds are on each side.Unlock in Gekko
Moderna earnings: next date and track record
Moderna reports on Nov 5, 2026, before the open (46 days away), and beat the EPS estimate in 5 of its last 8 reports.
Next earnings report
Nov 5, 2026
Expected before the open, 46 days away
- EPS estimate
- −$1.31
- Revenue estimate
- $895.0M
5 of 8reports beat the EPS estimate
±6.6%average move across the report
4 of 8reports followed by a gain
Share-price move across each report
Last earnings call, Jul 31, 2026 AI summary
- What they said
- Moderna reported Q2 2026 results with revenue of $145 million, exceeding the top of its guidance range, and a net loss of $782 million (improved vs. prior year). The company emphasized cost discipline (10% reduction in cash cost year-over-year) and ended the quarter with $6.9 billion in cash and investments. Management reiterated 2026 revenue growth guidance of up to 10% and lowered cash cost guidance to approximately $4 billion. Commercially, progress includes VRBPAC positive recommendation for the seasonal flu vaccine (mRNA-1010) ahead of an August 5 PDUFA, approvals and contracts for COVID/combo products across multiple countries (Japan, Taiwan, Mexico, EU joint procurement, UK/Canada/Australia partnerships), and ongoing expansion of mNEXSPIKE. Clinical pipeline updates highlighted norovirus (mRNA-1403) moving to enroll an additional cohort after an interim analysis, Intismeran (individualized neoantigen therapy) showing durable 5-year Phase II data in adjuvant melanoma and proceeding with multiple Phase II/III studies (interim Phase III melanoma analysis expected in H2 2026), and progress in oncology and rare disease programs (PA time-driven Phase III expected to read out in Q4). Management expressed confidence in execution and commercial readiness (manufacturing capacity for Intismeran) while remaining cautious on blinded or event-driven trials and regulatory timing.
- Guidance
- Reiterated 2026 revenue growth expectation of up to 10%; expect roughly 50/50 U.S. vs. international split for full year; third-quarter revenue expected to represent approximately 55% of second-half revenue; lowered cash cost guidance to approximately $4.0 billion; anticipate potential approvals/filing milestones (August 5 PDUFA for seasonal flu; expected approvals for mCOMBRIAX in Canada and Japan; continued regulatory interactions for flu in Canada and Europe).
- Risks flagged
- Material risks discussed or implied include ongoing net losses and cash burn, reliance on regulatory approvals (e.g., PDUFA outcome for flu), seasonal variability and slower-than-expected case accrual for event-driven trials (norovirus), uncertainty in timing of event-driven oncology and rare disease readouts, dependence on commercial partnerships and contracting (Europe tendering, government procurements), manufacturing scale-up and capacity constraints if demand exceeds initial capacity, and continued need to achieve operational efficiencies to hit cash cost targets. SEC/press release and presentations referenced standard forward-looking risk disclosures.
| Reported | EPS | Revenue | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Jul 31, 2026 | −$1.97 est −$1.97 | $145.0M est $102.9M | −4.8% |
| May 1, 2026 | −$3.40 est −$2.11 | $389.0M est $236.4M | +3.0% |
| Feb 13, 2026 | −$2.11 est −$2.54 | $678.0M est $635.2M | +9.5% |
| Nov 6, 2025 | −$0.51 est −$1.87 | $1.02B est $920.9M | +4.2% |
| Aug 1, 2025 | −$2.13 est −$2.99 | $142.0M est $893.3M | −6.5% |
| May 1, 2025 | −$2.52 est −$3.03 | $107.0M est $116.7M | −3.3% |
| Feb 14, 2025 | −$2.91 est −$2.76 | $956.0M est $942.8M | +12.0% |
| Nov 7, 2024 | $0.03 est −$1.90 | $1.86B est $1.25B | −9.6% |
“Move” is the close of the first session after the report compared with the close of the last session before it, so it reads the same whether the company reported before the open or after the close.
Moderna stock forecast and analyst price targets
Analysts’ average 12-month price target for Moderna is $119.56, −22.4% from the last close, from 20 firms rating the stock in the last 90 days.
$119.56consensus 12-month target, −22.4% from the last close
Now $154.04Avg $119.56
Low $40High $180
Each firm’s latest rating in the last 90 days: 20 firms.
Latest analyst actions
| Date | Firm | Target | vs price |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 11 | Evercore ISI | $80 | −48.1% |
| Sep 11 | DBS | $150 | −2.6% |
| Sep 10 | Berenberg Bank | $100 | −35.1% |
| Sep 3 | Rothschild & Co Redburn | $81 | −47.4% |
| Aug 28 | Argus Research | $180 | +16.9% |
+5.2%average 20-day move after past Neutral readings
−9.2%average move over the next 20 trading days in the last 5 years
±6.7%typical daily move, from the 14-day average range
Gekko doesn’t publish price predictions. These are analyst targets and historical base rates, which don’t guarantee future results.
Moderna seasonality: the next 20 trading days
Over the next 20 trading days from Sep 19, Moderna averaged −9.2% across the last 5 years, rising in 2 of them.
Next 20 trading days, by year
Average move and hit rate
| Window | Average | Years higher |
|---|---|---|
| Next 5 trading days | −6.0% | 0 of 5 |
| Next 10 trading days | −5.7% | 1 of 5 |
| Next 15 trading days | −8.6% | 1 of 5 |
| Next 20 trading days | −9.2% | 2 of 5 |
| Next 30 trading days | −9.1% | 2 of 5 |
For scale, MRNA’s typical 20-trading-day move in either direction is about 12.4%.
Moderna market cap and key statistics
Moderna’s market cap is $61.12B and revenue of $2.23B over the last twelve months.
Valuation
- Market cap
- $61.12B
- Forward P/E
- 23
- EPS, TTM
- −$8.66
- Gekko Fair Value
- $106.73
Trading
- Volume
- 20.21M
- Avg volume, 20 days
- 21.83M
- 52-week high
- $176.66
- 52-week low
- $22.28
- Shares outstanding
- 399.2M
Financials
- Revenue, TTM
- $2.23B
- Profit margin
- -141.4%
- Return on equity
- -39%
- Quarterly earnings growth, YoY
- −85.1%
Risk and income
- Beta
- 1.11
- Typical daily move
- ±6.7%
- Typical 20-day move
- ±12.4%
Moderna stock news this week
Coverage of Moderna this week reads positive: 9 positive, 6 neutral and 1 negative headlines.
- Bank of America Corp DE Invests $98.72 Million in Moderna, Inc. $MRNAMarketBeat, Sep 19
- Axsome Therapeutics vs. Moderna: Which Healthcare Stock Is a Better Buy in 2026?Yahoo Finance, Sep 18
- Zacks Investment Ideas feature highlights: NVIDIA, Advanced Micro Devices, Tempus, Moderna, Super Micro Computer and Aya Gold & SilverYahoo Finance, Sep 18
- AEMD, OKLO, DAIC, XENE, MRNA: 5 Trending Stocks Today - Moderna (NASDAQ:MRNA)Benzinga, Sep 18
- Why Are Moderna (MRNA) Shares Soaring TodayYahoo! Finance Canada, Sep 17
- Moderna testing key resistance levelInvesting.com, Sep 17
Moderna peers
Moderna’s 6 largest industry peers by market value, with today’s move, GekkoIndex zone and gap to Gekko Fair Value.
| Stock | GekkoIndex zone | vs Fair Value |
|---|---|---|
| AMGNAmgen | Accumulation | 31.3% below |
| GILDGilead Sciences | Neutral | 3.4% above |
| NTRANatera | Distribution | 15.3% above |
| IQVIQVIA | Neutral | 10.6% above |
| UTHRUnited Therapeutics | Accumulation | 25.0% below |
| NBIXNeurocrine Biosciences | Buying | 38.9% below |
A peer links to its own page where one exists.
Moderna stock FAQ
What is Moderna’s market cap?
Moderna’s market cap is $61.12B at the Sep 18, 2026 close of $154.04, with 399.2M shares outstanding.
What is the Moderna stock forecast?
The consensus analyst 12-month price target for Moderna is $119.56, −22.4% from the last close. Of the 20 firms that rated the stock in the last 90 days, 3 rate it a buy, 15 a hold and 2 a sell. Gekko doesn’t publish price predictions of its own.
Is Moderna stock overvalued or undervalued?
On Gekko’s estimate Moderna is overvalued: the Sep 18, 2026 close of $154.04 is 44.3% above Gekko Fair Value of $106.73. Gekko Fair Value is recalculated every trading day, and a gap inside 5% either way counts as about fair value.
When does Moderna report earnings next?
Moderna is expected to report on Nov 5, 2026, before the market opens (46 days away). Analysts expect earnings of −$1.31 per share on revenue of $895.0M. Moderna beat the earnings estimate in 5 of its last 8 reports, moving 6.6% on average across the report.
What is Moderna’s 52-week high and low?
Moderna’s 52-week high is $176.66 and its 52-week low is $22.28; it closed at $154.04 on Sep 18, 2026, +516.2% over the past year.
Is Moderna stock a buy right now?
Gekko describes the data; it does not make buy or sell recommendations. On the swing-trade checklist, 3 of the 6 items with data read as supportive (trend, smart money and earnings risk), 1 as mixed (gekkoindex) and 2 as headwinds (fair value and seasonality). The checklist is a description of current data, not a recommendation.
Is there unusual options activity in Moderna?
Gekko flagged 7 unusual options signals in Moderna over the last 30 days, with $38.75M of flagged premium in calls and $11.79M in puts. The latest, bullish flow, was on Sep 18, 2026 with $11.16M in unusual premium. The signal-by-signal table is in Gekko.
How this page works
Prices and signals update after every US market close; the GekkoIndex, Gekko Fair Value and the checklist are Gekko’s own, and the Gekko Brief is written by AI from this page’s data and checked against it before it is published. How Gekko’s data works →
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