Insider buying last 90 days
No open-market insider purchases were filed for MRNA in the last 90 days.
From Form 4 filings, dated to when each was filed.
Every MRNA insider filing, plotted on the chart in Gekko.Open MRNA in Gekko
NASDAQ: MRNA
Moderna (MRNA) Stock Analysis & Forecast
Nov 4 close
$258.38+29.94 (+13.1%)
Gekko Brief
AI summaryNov 4 closeModerna shares reached a new 52-week high this week, extending a rally that election results helped fuel after Democratic majorities in the House and Senate were confirmed, lifting several healthcare names including Moderna, Novavax and Tenet Healthcare. Alongside this, Moderna advanced its investigational Ebola vaccine, mRNA-1469, toward a Phase 2/3 efficacy study in the Democratic Republic of Congo, and announced that initial data from its mRNA-2808 multiple myeloma program will be presented at the American Society of Hematology meeting in December. A separate report noted an investigation tied to an early release of cancer vaccine trial results from Moderna and Merck on 22 October 2026, which had previously pressured the stock.
Moderna closed at $258.38, up 13.1%, sitting above both its 50-day average of $187.78 and 200-day average of $89.50, with the 50-day above the 200-day. The GekkoIndex reads 49.6, placing it in the Neutral zone, down 5.7 points over five sessions. The price stands 54.9% above Gekko Fair Value of $166.82.
Moderna reports earnings on 6 November 2026, before the open, one day away and inside a typical 20-trading-day hold; prior quarters show 5 beats in 8, with an average absolute reaction of 6.6%. Over the last 90 days, Congress recorded 3 buys and 0 sells, while the last 30 days show 5 unusual options signals, with call premium of $74.3 million against put premium of $30.1 million. Seasonally, the next 20 trading days have averaged a 1.5% return over 5 years, rising in 4 of them.
Written by AI from the Nov 4, 2026 close and checked automatically against the figures on this page.
Moderna price vs fair value
Close $258.38200-day averageGekko Fair Value $166.82
Moderna quick facts
- Market cap
- $103.2B
- P/E ratio
- —
- Forward P/E
- 23
- EPS, TTM
- −$7.98
- Revenue, TTM
- $2.23B
- Profit margin
- -141.4%
- Dividend yield
- —
- Beta
- 1.17
- Volume
- 14.68M avg 18.38M
- 1-year return
- +937.3%
- Typical daily move
- ±9.1%
- Typical 20-day move
- ±12.6%
- 50-day average
- $187.78
- 200-day average
- $89.50
- Next earnings
- Nov 6 before open
- Shares outstanding
- 399.2M
Moderna swing-trade checklist
Moderna scores 3 supportive, 1 mixed and 2 headwinds across the 6 checklist items with data.
Six things swing traders check before a 20-day hold, read from the latest data.
3 supportive1 mixed2 headwinds
- Trendsupportive
Above 50 and 200-day
Close $258.38 is above the 50-day ($187.78) and 200-day ($89.50) averages, and the 50-day is above the 200-day.
See the chart - GekkoIndexmixed
49.6, Neutral
Reading 49.6 is in the Neutral zone.
See the GekkoIndex - Fair valueheadwind
54.9% above
Price is 54.9% above Gekko Fair Value (more than 5% above).
See fair value - Smart moneysupportive
Leans bullish
Last 90 days: Congress 3 buys / 0 sales. Last 30 days: 5 unusual options signals.
See smart money - Earnings riskheadwind
Reports tomorrow
Reports on Nov 6, 2026, tomorrow — inside a typical 20-trading-day hold.
See earnings - Seasonalitysupportive
+1.5% on average
From this point in the calendar, the next 20 trading days averaged +1.5% over 5 years, rising in 4 of them.
See seasonality
A description of current data, not a recommendation. How this page works
Moderna stock chart and price history
Moderna closed at $258.38 on Nov 4, 2026, +937.3% over the past year, inside a 52-week range of $22.28 to $258.72.
Close50-day average200-day averageVolume
Use the left and right arrow keys to read daily values.
Performance Breakdown
- 1 month
- +37.8%
- 3 months
- +379.7%
- 6 months
- +429.6%
- 1 year
- +937.3%
The full MRNA chart adds GekkoIndex, insider, options, Congress and hedge fund markers, plus TrendCandles™.Open MRNA in Gekko
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About Moderna
Moderna works in messenger RNA science, turning that platform into vaccines and other medicines rather than a single product line. It has built a name around its work on infectious disease shots, including coverage for COVID-19, flu and RSV, while also pursuing treatments aimed at cancer, rare diseases, heart conditions and immune-system disorders.
Its pipeline stretches beyond respiratory illness into vaccines for persistent viral infections such as CMV, EBV, HIV, HSV and VZV, along with candidates addressing Zika and Nipah. Alongside this, the company is developing cancer vaccines, tumor-targeted immuno-oncology treatments, regenerative and inhaled therapies, and medicines aimed at cells and secreted proteins. Much of this work is carried out with partners, among them AstraZeneca, Merck, Vertex Pharmaceuticals, Carisma Therapeutics, Metagenomi, Chiesi Farmaceutici, DARPA, BARDA, the Institute for Life Changing Medicines and the Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation, with activity extending across the United States, Europe and other regions.
Moderna traces its start to 2010, when it was known as Moderna Therapeutics, taking its current name in 2018. It is headquartered in Cambridge, Massachusetts, and its shares are listed on the NASDAQ under the ticker MRNA.
- Listed
- NASDAQ
- Sector
- Health technology
- Industry
- Biotechnology
- Website
- modernatx.com
Moderna GekkoIndex: the smart money zone
Moderna’s GekkoIndex — Gekko’s 0 to 100 smart money score — reads 49.6, in the Neutral zone, down 5.7 points over five sessions.
49.6Neutral
Down 5.7 points over five sessions.
Reading for Nov 4, 2026
What followed past readings in each zone
| Zone | Readings | 5 days | 20 days | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Buying | 74 | +1.2% | −6.9% | ||
| Accumulation | 241 | −0.5% | +7.5% | ||
| Neutral (current zone) | 341 | +3.2% | +8.4% | ||
| Distribution | 37 | −1.3% | +0.6% | ||
| Selling | 4 | Too few readings yet | |||
Average MRNA share-price change over the trading days after each daily reading in its GekkoIndex history. Across every stock Gekko tracks, Neutral readings averaged +1.0% over 20 days. Past behaviour doesn’t guarantee future results.
Neutral zone: No clear directional signal. About the five zones →
See every daily GekkoIndex reading plotted over the MRNA price, zone by zone.Track MRNA in Gekko
Is Moderna stock overvalued? Gekko Fair Value
Moderna trades 54.9% above Gekko Fair Value of $166.82, so the shares are overvalued on Gekko’s estimate.
Gekko’s own estimate of what Moderna shares are worth, recalculated every trading day.
$166.82
Gekko Fair Value, Nov 4, 2026
54.9% Overvalued
At the end of Aug 2026 the price was 45.1% above the estimate.
Gekko Fair ValueShare price, month end
Gekko Fair Value on every chart, with the gap to price updating daily.Open MRNA in Gekko
Moderna insider and Congress trading
No open-market insider purchases were filed for Moderna, and members of Congress disclosed 3 purchases and 0 sales, in the last 90 days.
Plus buybacks, unusual options and fund positions, each dated to when it became public.
Congress trades last 90 days
3trades disclosed: 3 purchases and 0 sales.
| Member | Amount | Disclosed |
|---|---|---|
| Ro Khanna House, CA, purchase | $1,001 - $15,000 | Oct 9 traded Sep 11 |
| Ro Khanna House, CA, purchase | $1,001 - $15,000 | Oct 9 traded Sep 4 |
| Maria Elvira Salazar House, FL, purchase | $1,001 - $15,000 | Sep 10 traded Aug 19 |
From congressional disclosures, which report amounts as ranges.
Buybacks
Moderna has been buying back its own shares.
- Bought back, quarter ended Jun 30, 2026
- $2.00M
- As a share of market cap
- 0.00%
From company filings.
Unusual options activity last 30 days
5signals, 71% of the flagged premium in calls.
Latest: Bearish flow on Nov 4, $3.96M in unusual premium.
Hedge funds and billionaires quarter ended Mar 31
0of the funds Gekko tracks hold MRNA.
0added0opened0trimmed2sold out
Every signal with its contract, strike and premium, and which funds are on each side.Unlock in Gekko
Moderna earnings: next date and track record
Moderna reports on Nov 6, 2026, before the open (tomorrow), and beat the EPS estimate in 5 of its last 8 reports.
Next earnings report
Nov 6, 2026
Expected before the open, tomorrow
- EPS estimate
- −$1.10
- Revenue estimate
- $890.3M
5 of 8reports beat the EPS estimate
±6.6%average move across the report
4 of 8reports followed by a gain
Share-price move across each report
Last earnings call, Jul 31, 2026 AI summary
- What they said
- Moderna reported Q2 2026 results with revenue of $145 million, exceeding the top of its guidance range, and a net loss of $782 million (improved vs. prior year). The company emphasized cost discipline (10% reduction in cash cost year-over-year) and ended the quarter with $6.9 billion in cash and investments. Management reiterated 2026 revenue growth guidance of up to 10% and lowered cash cost guidance to approximately $4 billion. Commercially, progress includes VRBPAC positive recommendation for the seasonal flu vaccine (mRNA-1010) ahead of an August 5 PDUFA, approvals and contracts for COVID/combo products across multiple countries (Japan, Taiwan, Mexico, EU joint procurement, UK/Canada/Australia partnerships), and ongoing expansion of mNEXSPIKE. Clinical pipeline updates highlighted norovirus (mRNA-1403) moving to enroll an additional cohort after an interim analysis, Intismeran (individualized neoantigen therapy) showing durable 5-year Phase II data in adjuvant melanoma and proceeding with multiple Phase II/III studies (interim Phase III melanoma analysis expected in H2 2026), and progress in oncology and rare disease programs (PA time-driven Phase III expected to read out in Q4). Management expressed confidence in execution and commercial readiness (manufacturing capacity for Intismeran) while remaining cautious on blinded or event-driven trials and regulatory timing.
- Guidance
- Reiterated 2026 revenue growth expectation of up to 10%; expect roughly 50/50 U.S. vs. international split for full year; third-quarter revenue expected to represent approximately 55% of second-half revenue; lowered cash cost guidance to approximately $4.0 billion; anticipate potential approvals/filing milestones (August 5 PDUFA for seasonal flu; expected approvals for mCOMBRIAX in Canada and Japan; continued regulatory interactions for flu in Canada and Europe).
- Risks flagged
- Material risks discussed or implied include ongoing net losses and cash burn, reliance on regulatory approvals (e.g., PDUFA outcome for flu), seasonal variability and slower-than-expected case accrual for event-driven trials (norovirus), uncertainty in timing of event-driven oncology and rare disease readouts, dependence on commercial partnerships and contracting (Europe tendering, government procurements), manufacturing scale-up and capacity constraints if demand exceeds initial capacity, and continued need to achieve operational efficiencies to hit cash cost targets. SEC/press release and presentations referenced standard forward-looking risk disclosures.
| Reported | EPS | Revenue | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Jul 31, 2026 | −$1.97 est −$1.97 | $145.0M est $102.9M | −4.8% |
| May 1, 2026 | −$3.40 est −$2.11 | $389.0M est $236.4M | +3.0% |
| Feb 13, 2026 | −$2.11 est −$2.54 | $678.0M est $635.2M | +9.5% |
| Nov 6, 2025 | −$0.51 est −$1.87 | $1.02B est $920.9M | +4.2% |
| Aug 1, 2025 | −$2.13 est −$2.99 | $142.0M est $893.3M | −6.5% |
| May 1, 2025 | −$2.52 est −$3.03 | $107.0M est $116.7M | −3.3% |
| Feb 14, 2025 | −$2.91 est −$2.76 | $956.0M est $942.8M | +12.0% |
| Nov 7, 2024 | $0.03 est −$1.90 | $1.86B est $1.25B | −9.6% |
“Move” is the close of the first session after the report compared with the close of the last session before it, so it reads the same whether the company reported before the open or after the close.
Moderna stock forecast and analyst price targets
Analysts’ average 12-month price target for Moderna is $138.37, −46.4% from the last close, from 20 firms rating the stock in the last 90 days.
$138.37consensus 12-month target, −46.4% from the last close
Now $258.38Avg $138.37
Low $45High $230
Each firm’s latest rating in the last 90 days: 20 firms.
Latest analyst actions
| Date | Firm | Target | vs price |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 27 | Bank of America Securities | $220 | −14.9% |
| Oct 27 | William Blair | — | — |
| Oct 27 | RBC Capital | $130 | −49.7% |
| Oct 27 | Citi | $80 | −69.0% |
| Oct 26 | Piper Sandler | $230 | −11.0% |
+8.4%average 20-day move after past Neutral readings
+1.5%average move over the next 20 trading days in the last 5 years
±9.1%typical daily move, from the 14-day average range
Gekko doesn’t publish price predictions. These are analyst targets and historical base rates, which don’t guarantee future results.
Moderna seasonality: the next 20 trading days
Over the next 20 trading days from Nov 4, Moderna averaged +1.5% across the last 5 years, rising in 4 of them.
Next 20 trading days, by year
Average move and hit rate
| Window | Average | Years higher |
|---|---|---|
| Next 5 trading days | −6.2% | 2 of 5 |
| Next 10 trading days | −3.9% | 2 of 5 |
| Next 15 trading days | +2.6% | 4 of 5 |
| Next 20 trading days | +1.5% | 4 of 5 |
| Next 30 trading days | +7.7% | 4 of 5 |
For scale, MRNA’s typical 20-trading-day move in either direction is about 12.6%.
Moderna market cap and key statistics
Moderna’s market cap is $103.2B and revenue of $2.23B over the last twelve months.
Valuation
- Market cap
- $103.2B
- Forward P/E
- 23
- EPS, TTM
- −$7.98
- Gekko Fair Value
- $166.82
Trading
- Volume
- 14.68M
- Avg volume, 20 days
- 18.38M
- 52-week high
- $258.72
- 52-week low
- $22.28
- Shares outstanding
- 399.2M
Financials
- Revenue, TTM
- $2.23B
- Profit margin
- -141.4%
- Return on equity
- -39%
- Quarterly earnings growth, YoY
- −85.1%
Risk and income
- Beta
- 1.17
- Typical daily move
- ±9.1%
- Typical 20-day move
- ±12.6%
Moderna stock news this week
Coverage of Moderna this week reads positive: 11 positive, 7 neutral and 2 negative headlines.
- Moderna stock hits 52-week high at $254.51Investing.com, Nov 4
- Universal Health Services, Tenet Healthcare, Moderna, Novavax, and Intuitive Surgical stocks trade up, what you need to knowThe Globe and Mail, Nov 4
- Moderna, Inc. (MRNA) Investigation: Bronstein, Gewirtz & GrossmanThe National Law Review, Nov 4
- Moderna Advances Investigational Bundibugyo Ebolavirus Vaccine Toward Phase 2/3 StudyInvesting News Network, Nov 4
- Moderna Ebola vaccine picked for Phase 2/3 trial (MRNA:NASDAQ)Seeking Alpha, Nov 4
- Moderna Announces Oral Presentation of mRNA-2808 Clinical Data at 2026 American Society of Hematology Annual MeetingCincinnati Enquirer, Nov 4
Moderna peers
Moderna’s 6 largest industry peers by market value, with today’s move, GekkoIndex zone and gap to Gekko Fair Value.
| Stock | GekkoIndex zone | vs Fair Value |
|---|---|---|
| AMGNAmgen | Distribution | 18.1% below |
| GILDGilead Sciences | Distribution | 12.0% above |
| NTRANatera | Neutral | 0.8% below |
| IQVIQVIA | Neutral | 2.4% above |
| UTHRUnited Therapeutics | Distribution | 9.1% below |
| NBIXNeurocrine Biosciences | Distribution | 31.9% below |
A peer links to its own page where one exists.
Moderna stock FAQ
What is Moderna’s market cap?
Moderna’s market cap is $103.2B at the Nov 4, 2026 close of $258.38, with 399.2M shares outstanding.
What is the Moderna stock forecast?
The consensus analyst 12-month price target for Moderna is $138.37, −46.4% from the last close. Of the 20 firms that rated the stock in the last 90 days, 2 rate it a buy, 15 a hold and 3 a sell. Gekko doesn’t publish price predictions of its own.
Is Moderna stock overvalued or undervalued?
On Gekko’s estimate Moderna is overvalued: the Nov 4, 2026 close of $258.38 is 54.9% above Gekko Fair Value of $166.82. Gekko Fair Value is recalculated every trading day, and a gap inside 5% either way counts as about fair value.
When does Moderna report earnings next?
Moderna is expected to report on Nov 6, 2026, before the market opens (tomorrow). Analysts expect earnings of −$1.10 per share on revenue of $890.3M. Moderna beat the earnings estimate in 5 of its last 8 reports, moving 6.6% on average across the report.
What is Moderna’s 52-week high and low?
Moderna’s 52-week high is $258.72 and its 52-week low is $22.28; it closed at $258.38 on Nov 4, 2026, +937.3% over the past year. Over the last five years the shares peaked at $376.65 on Nov 29, 2021.
Is Moderna stock a buy right now?
Gekko describes the data; it does not make buy or sell recommendations. On the swing-trade checklist, 3 of the 6 items with data read as supportive (trend, smart money and seasonality), 1 as mixed (gekkoindex) and 2 as headwinds (fair value and earnings risk). The checklist is a description of current data, not a recommendation.
Is there unusual options activity in Moderna?
Gekko flagged 5 unusual options signals in Moderna over the last 30 days, with $74.26M of flagged premium in calls and $30.13M in puts. The latest, bearish flow, was on Nov 4, 2026 with $3.96M in unusual premium. The signal-by-signal table is in Gekko.
How this page works
During US trading hours the price at the top of the page is a delayed quote, refreshed every 15 minutes; everything else is rebuilt after each US market close. The GekkoIndex, Gekko Fair Value and the checklist are Gekko’s own, and the Gekko Brief is written by AI from this page’s data and checked against it before it is published. How Gekko’s data works →
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