Bilibili (BILI) Stock Analysis & Forecast

Sep 28 close

$15.14+0.24 (+1.6%)

Gekko Brief

AI summary

This week's news centers on Bilibili's proposed repurchase of 13,591,090 Class Z ordinary shares from Tencent Holdings subsidiaries for $200 million, a deal contingent on shareholder approval at an Extraordinary General Meeting scheduled for October 28, 2026 in Shanghai. Alongside this, Bilibili published its first-half 2026 interim report under Hong Kong listing requirements. HKEX filings also showed Morgan Stanley's long position increasing to 7.45% from 6.61% on September 22, and Blackrock's long position rising to 6.13%.

Bilibili trades at $15.14, up 1.6%, but remains below both its 50-day average of $16.79 and 200-day average of $22.19, with the 50-day below the 200-day. Shares sit near the 52-week low of $14.39, far from the 52-week high of $36.40, reflecting a one-year return of -44.6%. The GekkoIndex reads 62.3, placing the stock in the Accumulation zone. Fair value analysis puts Gekko Fair Value at $20.59, with price running 26.5% below that mark.

The next earnings date falls on 12 November 2026, 44 days out, beyond a typical 20-trading-day holding window; the prior quarter saw an EPS beat of $0.14 versus $0.13 estimated, with a -1.4% reaction. Options activity over the past 30 days shows 1 unusual signal, entirely put premium at $663,366 with no call premium. Consensus among 5 analysts stands at 5 buy ratings, with a consensus target of $26.74. Seasonality over 5 years shows the next 20 trading days averaging -4.4%, positive in 2 of those years.

Written by AI and checked automatically against the figures on this page. Generated Sep 29, 2026 from the data above.

Bilibili price vs fair value

$20.59$15.14Sep ’25Mar ’26Sep ’26
Close $15.14200-day averageGekko Fair Value $20.59

Bilibili quick facts

Market cap
$6.35B
P/E ratio
27.6
Forward P/E
11.8
EPS, TTM
$0.54
Revenue, TTM
$31.42B
Profit margin
4.9%
Dividend yield
—
Beta
0.70
Volume
4.31M avg 3.55M
1-year return
−44.6%
Typical daily move
±2.8%
Typical 20-day move
±11.8%
50-day average
$16.79
200-day average
$22.19
Next earnings
Nov 12
Shares outstanding
332.2M
52-week range
$14.39$36.40

Bilibili swing-trade checklist

Bilibili scores 3 supportive, 0 mixed and 3 headwinds across the 6 checklist items with data.

Six things swing traders check before a 20-day hold, read from the latest data.

3 supportive0 mixed3 headwinds

  • Trendheadwind

    Below 50 and 200-day

    Close $15.14 is below the 50-day ($16.79) and 200-day ($22.19) averages, and the 50-day is below the 200-day.

    See the chart
  • GekkoIndexsupportive

    62.3, Accumulation

    Reading 62.3 is in the Accumulation zone.

    See the GekkoIndex
  • Fair valuesupportive

    26.5% below

    Price is 26.5% below Gekko Fair Value (more than 5% below).

    See fair value
  • Smart moneyheadwind

    Leans bearish

    Last 30 days: 1 unusual options signal.

    See smart money
  • Earnings risksupportive

    Reports in 44 days

    Next report Nov 12, 2026, 44 days away — outside a typical 20-trading-day hold.

    See earnings
  • Seasonalityheadwind

    −4.4% on average

    From this point in the calendar, the next 20 trading days averaged −4.4% over 5 years, rising in 2 of them.

    See seasonality

A description of current data, not a recommendation. How this page works

Bilibili stock chart and price history

Bilibili closed at $15.14 on Sep 28, 2026, −44.6% over the past year, inside a 52-week range of $14.39 to $36.40.

Close50-day average200-day averageVolume
Bilibili share price, past year, with 50-day and 200-day moving averages and volume$20$25$30$35NovDecJan 2026FebMarAprMayJunJulAugSep15.14

Use the left and right arrow keys to read daily values.

Performance Breakdown

1 month
−9.7%
3 months
−10.2%
6 months
−32.2%
1 year
−44.6%
The full BILI chart adds GekkoIndex, insider, options, Congress and hedge fund markers, plus TrendCandles™.Open BILI in Gekko

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About Bilibili

Bilibili operates an online entertainment platform aimed largely at younger audiences throughout China. The service brings together several forms of content in one place, including video, mobile games, paid subscriptions, and material tied to animation, comics, and games. Within video specifically, the platform hosts work from professional creators, original productions, and live broadcasts, giving users a mix of formats to watch and engage with.

The company brings these different offerings together under one digital platform rather than a single product line, spanning games, subscriptions, and ACG-themed content alongside its video services. Its audience is centered on younger users in China who use the platform for entertainment across these various formats.

Bilibili was founded in 2009 and is headquartered in Shanghai, China. Its shares trade under the ticker BILI.

Sector
Technology services
Website
bilibili.com

Bilibili GekkoIndex: the smart money zone

Bilibili’s GekkoIndex — Gekko’s 0 to 100 smart money score — reads 62.3, in the Accumulation zone, down 2.8 points over five sessions.

010062.3Accumulation

Down 2.8 points over five sessions.

Reading for Sep 28, 2026

What followed past readings in each zone

ZoneReadings5 days10 days20 days50 days
Buying26+1.8%+2.7%+0.5%+10.1%
Accumulation (current zone)227−0.4%+0.2%+2.3%+6.8%
Neutral324+1.3%+2.3%+3.2%+4.3%
Distribution42−0.2%+0.2%+0.1%+0.5%
Selling6Too few readings yet

Average BILI share-price change over the trading days after each daily reading in its GekkoIndex history. Across every stock Gekko tracks, Accumulation readings averaged +2.3% over 20 days. Past behaviour doesn’t guarantee future results.

Accumulation zone: Institutional interest building. About the five zones →

See every daily GekkoIndex reading plotted over the BILI price, zone by zone.Track BILI in Gekko

Is Bilibili stock overvalued? Gekko Fair Value

Bilibili trades 26.5% below Gekko Fair Value of $20.59, so the shares are undervalued on Gekko’s estimate.

Gekko’s own estimate of what Bilibili shares are worth, recalculated every trading day.

$20.59

Gekko Fair Value, Sep 29, 2026

26.5% Undervalued

How Gekko Fair Value works →

Gekko Fair Value on every chart, with the gap to price updating daily.Open BILI in Gekko

Bilibili insider and Congress trading

No open-market insider purchases were filed for Bilibili, and no Congress trades were disclosed, in the last 90 days.

Plus buybacks, unusual options and fund positions, each dated to when it became public.

Insider buying last 90 days

No open-market insider purchases were filed for BILI in the last 90 days.

From Form 4 filings, dated to when each was filed.

Every BILI insider filing, plotted on the chart in Gekko.Open BILI in Gekko

Congress trades last 90 days

No trades in BILI were disclosed by members of Congress in the last 90 days.

From congressional disclosures, which report amounts as ranges.

Congress disclosures for BILI, plotted on the chart in Gekko.Open BILI in Gekko

Unusual options activity last 30 days

1signal, 0% of the flagged premium in calls.

Latest: Bullish flow on Sep 2, $663K in unusual premium.

Every signal with its contract, strike and premium.Unlock in Gekko

Bilibili earnings: next date and track record

Bilibili reports on Nov 12, 2026 (44 days away), and beat the EPS estimate in 8 of its last 8 reports.

8 of 8reports beat the EPS estimate
±6.9%average move across the report
2 of 8reports followed by a gain

Share-price move across each report

−14.0%Nov ’24+12.2%Feb ’25+1.3%May ’25−5.3%Aug ’25−3.7%Nov ’25−10.3%Mar ’26−6.8%May ’26−1.4%Aug ’26
ReportedEPSSurpriseRevenueSurpriseMove
Aug 20, 2026$0.14
est $0.13
+7.7%——−1.4%
May 19, 2026$1.31
est $1.16
+13.4%——−6.8%
Mar 5, 2026$1.94
est $1.84
+5.4%——−10.3%
Nov 13, 2025$1.75
est $1.50
+16.7%——−3.7%
Aug 21, 2025$1.29
est $1.20
+7.5%——−5.3%
May 20, 2025$0.85
est $0.53
+60.4%——+1.3%
Feb 20, 2025$1.07
est $1.01
+5.9%——+12.2%
Nov 14, 2024$0.57
est $0.56
+1.8%——−14.0%

“Move” is the close of the first session after the report compared with the close of the last session before it, so it reads the same whether the company reported before the open or after the close.

Bilibili stock forecast and analyst price targets

Analysts’ average 12-month price target for Bilibili is $26.74, +76.6% from the last close, from 5 firms rating the stock in the last 90 days.

$26.74consensus 12-month target, +76.6% from the last close
Low $27High $34
Buy5
Hold0
Sell0

Each firm’s latest rating in the last 90 days: 5 firms.

Latest analyst actions

DateFirmRatingTargetvs price
Aug 31BarclaysBuy, maintained$34+124.6%
Aug 28CMB International SecuritiesBuy, maintained$28+84.9%
Aug 27Morgan StanleyBuy, maintained$27+78.3%
Aug 27Bank of America SecuritiesBuy, maintained$27+78.3%
Jul 13Bank of America SecuritiesBuy, maintained$30+98.2%
+2.3%average 20-day move after past Accumulation readings
−4.4%average move over the next 20 trading days in the last 5 years
±2.8%typical daily move, from the 14-day average range

Gekko doesn’t publish price predictions. These are analyst targets and historical base rates, which don’t guarantee future results.

Bilibili seasonality: the next 20 trading days

Over the next 20 trading days from Sep 29, Bilibili averaged −4.4% across the last 5 years, rising in 2 of them.

Next 20 trading days, by year

+19.1%2021−37.6%2022−3.4%2023−4.9%2024+9.7%2025

Average move and hit rate

WindowAverageYears higher
Next 5 trading days+5.8%3 of 5
Next 10 trading days−2.7%1 of 5
Next 15 trading days−4.0%2 of 5
Next 20 trading days−4.4%2 of 5
Next 30 trading days+1.1%3 of 5

For scale, BILI’s typical 20-trading-day move in either direction is about 11.8%.

Bilibili market cap and key statistics

Bilibili’s market cap is $6.35B, with a P/E ratio of 27.6 and revenue of $31.42B over the last twelve months.

Valuation

Market cap
$6.35B
P/E ratio
27.6
Forward P/E
11.8
EPS, TTM
$0.54
Gekko Fair Value
$20.59

Trading

Volume
4.31M
Avg volume, 20 days
3.55M
52-week high
$36.40
52-week low
$14.39
Shares outstanding
332.2M

Financials

Revenue, TTM
$31.42B
Profit margin
4.9%
Return on equity
10.1%
Quarterly earnings growth, YoY
+52.9%

Risk and income

Beta
0.70
Typical daily move
±2.8%
Typical 20-day move
±11.8%

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Bilibili stock FAQ

What is Bilibili’s market cap?

Bilibili’s market cap is $6.35B at the Sep 28, 2026 close of $15.14, with 332.2M shares outstanding. The shares trade on a P/E ratio of 27.6.

What is the Bilibili stock forecast?

The consensus analyst 12-month price target for Bilibili is $26.74, +76.6% from the last close. Of the 5 firms that rated the stock in the last 90 days, 5 rate it a buy, 0 a hold and 0 a sell. Gekko doesn’t publish price predictions of its own.

Is Bilibili stock overvalued or undervalued?

On Gekko’s estimate Bilibili is undervalued: the Sep 28, 2026 close of $15.14 is 26.5% below Gekko Fair Value of $20.59. Gekko Fair Value is recalculated every trading day, and a gap inside 5% either way counts as about fair value.

When does Bilibili report earnings next?

Bilibili is expected to report on Nov 12, 2026 (44 days away). Analysts expect earnings of $0.28 per share on revenue of $1.23B. Bilibili beat the earnings estimate in 8 of its last 8 reports, moving 6.9% on average across the report.

What is Bilibili’s 52-week high and low?

Bilibili’s 52-week high is $36.40 and its 52-week low is $14.39; it closed at $15.14 on Sep 28, 2026, −44.6% over the past year. Over the last five years the shares peaked at $89.80 on Nov 16, 2021.

Is Bilibili stock a buy right now?

Gekko describes the data; it does not make buy or sell recommendations. On the swing-trade checklist, 3 of the 6 items with data read as supportive (gekkoindex, fair value and earnings risk) and 3 as headwinds (trend, smart money and seasonality). The checklist is a description of current data, not a recommendation.

Is there unusual options activity in Bilibili?

Gekko flagged 1 unusual options signal in Bilibili over the last 30 days, with $0 of flagged premium in calls and $663K in puts. The latest, bullish flow, was on Sep 2, 2026 with $663K in unusual premium. The signal-by-signal table is in Gekko.

How this page works

During US trading hours the price at the top of the page is a delayed quote, refreshed every 15 minutes; everything else is rebuilt after each US market close. The GekkoIndex, Gekko Fair Value and the checklist are Gekko’s own, and the Gekko Brief is written by AI from this page’s data and checked against it before it is published. How Gekko’s data works →

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