Insider buying last 90 days
No open-market insider purchases were filed for WMG in the last 90 days.
From Form 4 filings, dated to when each was filed.
Every WMG insider filing, plotted on the chart in Gekko.Open WMG in Gekko
NASDAQ: WMG
Warner Music (WMG) Stock Analysis & Forecast
Sep 28 close
$27.140.00 (0.0%)
Gekko Brief
Warner Music closed at $27.14 on 28 September 2026, 0% on the day. The price sits below both the 50-day ($27.37) and 200-day ($28.60) moving averages, inside a 52-week range of $23.34 to $35.42. The GekkoIndex reads 62, in the Accumulation zone, up 3.6 points over five sessions. Gekko Fair Value is $26.87, so the price is 1% above it.
The next earnings report is due on 19 November 2026, 51 days away (before open). Over the last 8 reports the company beat the earnings estimate 3 times, with an average move of 4.6% across the report. Seasonally, the next 20 trading days from this point averaged +6.1% over the last 5 years, rising in 3 of them.
10 firms rate the stock: 7 buy, 3 hold and 0 sell, with a consensus target of $37.75. A typical daily move is about 3.1%, and a typical 20-day move about 6.6%. On the swing-trade checklist, 3 items read supportive and 1 reads as a headwind (trend).
Generated Sep 29, 2026 from the data above.
Warner Music price vs fair value
Close $27.14200-day averageGekko Fair Value $26.87
Warner Music quick facts
- Market cap
- $14.16B
- P/E ratio
- 21.7
- Forward P/E
- 13.1
- EPS, TTM
- $1.26
- Revenue, TTM
- $7.30B
- Profit margin
- 9.2%
- Dividend yield
- 2.80%
- Beta
- 1.30
- Volume
- 2.79M avg 1.95M
- 1-year return
- −18.5%
- Typical daily move
- ±3.1%
- Typical 20-day move
- ±6.6%
- 50-day average
- $27.37
- 200-day average
- $28.60
- Next earnings
- Nov 19 before open
- Shares outstanding
- 147.7M
Warner Music swing-trade checklist
Warner Music scores 3 supportive, 1 mixed and 1 headwind across the 5 checklist items with data.
Six things swing traders check before a 20-day hold, read from the latest data.
3 supportive1 mixed1 headwind
- Trendheadwind
Below 50 and 200-day
Close $27.14 is below the 50-day ($27.37) and 200-day ($28.60) averages, and the 50-day is below the 200-day.
See the chart - GekkoIndexsupportive
62, Accumulation
Reading 62 is in the Accumulation zone.
See the GekkoIndex - Fair valuemixed
1.0% above
Price is within 5% of Gekko Fair Value (1% above).
See fair value - Smart moneyno data
No data
No insider, Congress or unusual options activity in the window.
See smart money - Earnings risksupportive
Reports in 51 days
Next report Nov 19, 2026, 51 days away — outside a typical 20-trading-day hold.
See earnings - Seasonalitysupportive
+6.1% on average
From this point in the calendar, the next 20 trading days averaged +6.1% over 5 years, rising in 3 of them.
See seasonality
A description of current data, not a recommendation. How this page works
Warner Music stock chart and price history
Warner Music closed at $27.14 on Sep 28, 2026, −18.5% over the past year, inside a 52-week range of $23.34 to $35.42.
Close50-day average200-day averageVolume
Use the left and right arrow keys to read daily values.
Performance Breakdown
- 1 month
- −3.7%
- 3 months
- +2.1%
- 6 months
- +14.2%
- 1 year
- −18.5%
The full WMG chart adds GekkoIndex, insider, options, Congress and hedge fund markers, plus TrendCandles™.Open WMG in Gekko
Follow Warner Music through every session
Put WMG on a Gekko watchlist and see its GekkoIndex, Gekko Fair Value and smart money signals update on the chart as they change.
Track WMG in GekkoFree for 7 days. No credit card required.
About Warner Music
Warner Music operates as a global music company, discovering and developing recording artists while managing the promotion, distribution and sale of their work. It is also known for owning and administering a large library of musical compositions spanning many genres and eras, from pop standards to film scores. The company reaches audiences across the United States, the United Kingdom, Germany and other markets worldwide.
The business is split into two arms. Recorded Music signs and supports artists, then handles marketing, sales and licensing of their output through labels such as Warner Records, Atlantic Records, Nonesuch, Parlophone, Reprise and Warner Music Nashville, among others, selling to retailers, wholesalers, digital platforms and streaming services. Music Publishing holds rights to roughly a million songs from about 100,000 writers and composers, and also provides administrative support for scores and soundtracks used by outside television and film producers.
Warner Music trades on the NASDAQ under the ticker WMG.
- Listed
- NASDAQ
- Sector
- Commercial services
- Industry
- Commercial printing/Forms
- Website
- wmg.com
Warner Music GekkoIndex: the smart money zone
Warner Music’s GekkoIndex — Gekko’s 0 to 100 smart money score — reads 62, in the Accumulation zone, up 3.6 points over five sessions.
62Accumulation
Up 3.6 points over five sessions, from the Neutral zone.
Reading for Sep 28, 2026
What followed past readings in each zone
| Zone | Readings | 5 days | 20 days | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Buying | 31 | +2.2% | +8.2% | ||
| Accumulation (current zone) | 291 | 0.0% | +0.3% | ||
| Neutral | 296 | −0.6% | −1.9% | ||
| Distribution | 53 | +0.4% | −1.5% | ||
| Selling | 1 | Too few readings yet | |||
Average WMG share-price change over the trading days after each daily reading in its GekkoIndex history. Across every stock Gekko tracks, Accumulation readings averaged +2.3% over 20 days. Past behaviour doesn’t guarantee future results.
Accumulation zone: Institutional interest building. About the five zones →
See every daily GekkoIndex reading plotted over the WMG price, zone by zone.Track WMG in Gekko
Is Warner Music stock overvalued? Gekko Fair Value
Warner Music trades 1.0% above Gekko Fair Value of $26.87, so the shares are about fair value on Gekko’s estimate.
Gekko’s own estimate of what Warner Music shares are worth, recalculated every trading day.
$26.87
Gekko Fair Value, Sep 26, 2026
1.0% above fair value · About fair value
Gekko Fair Value on every chart, with the gap to price updating daily.Open WMG in Gekko
Warner Music insider and Congress trading
No open-market insider purchases were filed for Warner Music, and no Congress trades were disclosed, in the last 90 days.
Plus buybacks, unusual options and fund positions, each dated to when it became public.
Congress trades last 90 days
No trades in WMG were disclosed by members of Congress in the last 90 days.
From congressional disclosures, which report amounts as ranges.
Congress disclosures for WMG, plotted on the chart in Gekko.Open WMG in Gekko
Buybacks
Warner Music has been buying back its own shares.
- Bought back, quarter ended Jun 30, 2026
- $48.00M
- As a share of market cap
- 0.34%
- Trailing four quarters
- $109.0M
From company filings.
Hedge funds and billionaires quarter ended Mar 31
1of the funds Gekko tracks holds WMG.
0added0opened1trimmed1sold out
Which funds are on each side, name by name.Unlock in Gekko
Warner Music earnings: next date and track record
Warner Music reports on Nov 19, 2026, before the open (51 days away), and beat the EPS estimate in 3 of its last 8 reports.
Next earnings report
Nov 19, 2026
Expected before the open, 51 days away
- EPS estimate
- $0.38
- Revenue estimate
- $1.90B
3 of 8reports beat the EPS estimate
±4.6%average move across the report
6 of 8reports followed by a gain
Share-price move across each report
Last earnings call, May 7, 2026 AI summary
- What they said
- Warner Music Group reported strong fiscal Q2 results with total revenue up 12%, adjusted OIBDA up 24%, and more than 200 basis points of margin expansion. Growth was broad-based across recorded music (+13%) and publishing (+10%), with subscription streaming accelerating to +15% (adjusted) and ad-supported streaming up 11% (adjusted). Physical and artist services also contributed materially. Management emphasized market-share gains (U.S. streaming share +1.1 pts, new release share +2.7 pts), successful implementation of contractual PSM pricing increases, strong creative momentum with high-profile artist wins, progress on catalog optimization and M&A via a Bain JV (about $650M deployed), and increased operational efficiency including cost savings and AI-driven initiatives. CFO Armin Zerza (in an expanded role) highlighted margin drivers, cost discipline, capital allocation framework, and commitment to disclose adjusted net income and adjusted EPS going forward. Management expressed high confidence in sustaining growth and indicated they are raising their outlook to the high end of their full-year target.
- Guidance
- Management said they are increasing their outlook for the year to the high end of their previously stated target (no explicit numeric full-year guidance given on the call). They expect additional pricing (PSM) increases over the course of the year, see potential material benefits from AI beginning next year, and anticipate continued growth consistent with or potentially above their sustainable growth model. Also noted: $650M of JV capacity deployed will contribute over time.
- Risks flagged
- APAC underperformance was acknowledged (relative regional weakness). Management noted variability in ad-supported partners (some partners weaker while others strong) and geopolitical/macro uncertainty referenced by an analyst (Middle East conflict) as possible headwinds. AI-related risks were discussed; management stated they have built protections and have not seen dilution to date, but AI remains an area of negotiation and potential future impact. Forward-looking statements are subject to usual SEC- and market-related risks; some catalog deal specifics remain confidential.
| Reported | EPS | Revenue | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| May 7, 2026 | $0.43 est $0.29 | $1.73B est $1.61B | +9.9% |
| Feb 5, 2026 | $0.33 est $0.40 | $1.84B est $1.77B | +3.0% |
| Nov 20, 2025 | $0.21 est $0.35 | $1.87B est $1.77B | +0.6% |
| Aug 7, 2025 | −$0.03 est $0.29 | $1.69B est $1.59B | +5.6% |
| May 8, 2025 | $0.07 est $0.28 | $1.48B est $1.52B | −9.1% |
| Feb 6, 2025 | $0.54 est $0.33 | $1.67B est $1.53B | +1.9% |
| Nov 21, 2024 | $0.31 est $0.31 | $1.63B est $1.59B | −5.4% |
| Aug 7, 2024 | $0.32 est $0.27 | $1.55B est $1.56B | +1.0% |
“Move” is the close of the first session after the report compared with the close of the last session before it, so it reads the same whether the company reported before the open or after the close.
Warner Music stock forecast and analyst price targets
Analysts’ average 12-month price target for Warner Music is $37.75, +39.1% from the last close, from 10 firms rating the stock in the last 90 days.
$37.75consensus 12-month target, +39.1% from the last close
Now $27.14Avg $37.75
Low $30High $46
Each firm’s latest rating in the last 90 days: 10 firms.
Latest analyst actions
| Date | Firm | Target | vs price |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 9 | Morgan Stanley | $36 | +32.6% |
| Sep 3 | Morgan Stanley | $36 | +32.6% |
| Aug 6 | Morgan Stanley | $36 | +32.6% |
| Aug 6 | Wells Fargo | $39 | +43.7% |
| Aug 6 | Bernstein | $39 | +43.7% |
+0.3%average 20-day move after past Accumulation readings
+6.1%average move over the next 20 trading days in the last 5 years
±3.1%typical daily move, from the 14-day average range
Gekko doesn’t publish price predictions. These are analyst targets and historical base rates, which don’t guarantee future results.
Warner Music seasonality: the next 20 trading days
Over the next 20 trading days from Sep 29, Warner Music averaged +6.1% across the last 5 years, rising in 3 of them.
Next 20 trading days, by year
Average move and hit rate
| Window | Average | Years higher |
|---|---|---|
| Next 5 trading days | +3.0% | 3 of 5 |
| Next 10 trading days | +2.8% | 3 of 5 |
| Next 15 trading days | +4.8% | 4 of 5 |
| Next 20 trading days | +6.1% | 3 of 5 |
| Next 30 trading days | +6.7% | 4 of 5 |
For scale, WMG’s typical 20-trading-day move in either direction is about 6.6%.
Warner Music market cap and key statistics
Warner Music’s market cap is $14.16B, with a P/E ratio of 21.7 and revenue of $7.30B over the last twelve months.
Valuation
- Market cap
- $14.16B
- P/E ratio
- 21.7
- Forward P/E
- 13.1
- EPS, TTM
- $1.26
- Gekko Fair Value
- $26.87
Trading
- Volume
- 2.79M
- Avg volume, 20 days
- 1.95M
- 52-week high
- $35.42
- 52-week low
- $23.34
- Shares outstanding
- 147.7M
Financials
- Revenue, TTM
- $7.30B
- Profit margin
- 9.2%
- Return on equity
- 70.1%
- Quarterly earnings growth, YoY
- +393.1%
Risk and income
- Beta
- 1.30
- Typical daily move
- ±3.1%
- Typical 20-day move
- ±6.6%
- Dividend yield
- 2.80%
Warner Music stock news this week
2 headlines about Warner Music from the past week, newest first, each linking to the publisher.
- Executive Realignment At Warner Music GroupRAMP - Radio and Music Pros, Sep 27
- Warner Music Group Corp. (NASDAQ:WMG) Given Consensus Recommendation of “Moderate Buy” by BrokeragesDefense World, Sep 21
Warner Music peers
Warner Music’s 6 largest industry peers by market value, with today’s move, GekkoIndex zone and gap to Gekko Fair Value.
| Stock | GekkoIndex zone | vs Fair Value |
|---|---|---|
| GPGIGPGI | Accumulation | 9.5% below |
| CMPRCimpress | Accumulation | 13.4% below |
| DLXDeluxe | Neutral | 40.6% below |
| EBFEnnis | Neutral | 19.2% below |
| QUADQuad Graphics | Accumulation | 22.6% below |
| ANPARich Sparkle | Accumulation | 30.9% below |
A peer links to its own page where one exists.
Warner Music stock FAQ
What is Warner Music’s market cap?
Warner Music’s market cap is $14.16B at the Sep 28, 2026 close of $27.14, with 147.7M shares outstanding. The shares trade on a P/E ratio of 21.7.
What is the Warner Music stock forecast?
The consensus analyst 12-month price target for Warner Music is $37.75, +39.1% from the last close. Of the 10 firms that rated the stock in the last 90 days, 7 rate it a buy, 3 a hold and 0 a sell. Gekko doesn’t publish price predictions of its own.
Is Warner Music stock overvalued or undervalued?
On Gekko’s estimate Warner Music is about fair value: the Sep 28, 2026 close of $27.14 is 1.0% above Gekko Fair Value of $26.87. Gekko Fair Value is recalculated every trading day, and a gap inside 5% either way counts as about fair value.
When does Warner Music report earnings next?
Warner Music is expected to report on Nov 19, 2026, before the market opens (51 days away). Analysts expect earnings of $0.38 per share on revenue of $1.90B. Warner Music beat the earnings estimate in 3 of its last 8 reports, moving 4.6% on average across the report.
What is Warner Music’s 52-week high and low?
Warner Music’s 52-week high is $35.42 and its 52-week low is $23.34; it closed at $27.14 on Sep 28, 2026, −18.5% over the past year. Over the last five years the shares peaked at $50.23 on Oct 28, 2021.
Is Warner Music stock a buy right now?
Gekko describes the data; it does not make buy or sell recommendations. On the swing-trade checklist, 3 of the 5 items with data read as supportive (gekkoindex, earnings risk and seasonality), 1 as mixed (fair value) and 1 as a headwind (trend). The checklist is a description of current data, not a recommendation.
How this page works
During US trading hours the price at the top of the page is a delayed quote, refreshed every 15 minutes; everything else is rebuilt after each US market close. The GekkoIndex, Gekko Fair Value and the checklist are Gekko’s own, and the Gekko Brief is written by AI from this page’s data and checked against it before it is published. How Gekko’s data works →
See Warner Music the way Gekko members do
Every GekkoIndex reading, insider trade, options bet and Congress disclosure plotted on the chart, plus the 5,800-name screener and trade planning tools.
Join 1,380 other traders using Gekko
Start Your FREE 7 Day Trial → Every feature unlocked. No credit card required.