Insider buying last 90 days
No open-market insider purchases were filed for USAR in the last 90 days.
From Form 4 filings, dated to when each was filed.
Every USAR insider filing, plotted on the chart in Gekko.Open USAR in Gekko
NASDAQ: USAR
USA Rare Earth (USAR) Stock Analysis & Forecast
Oct 12 close
$11.82−0.74 (−5.9%)
Gekko Brief
AI summaryOct 12 closeUSA Rare Earth fell alongside peers this week, with MP Materials and other critical-metals names also declining as the group came under pressure while USAR's milestone-based government funding remains still ahead of it. Separately, coverage has weighed its $2.8 billion Serra Verde acquisition in Brazil against its $1.2 billion South Carolina investment as the company builds what it describes as a mine-to-magnet supply chain outside China. Analyst attention continued, with a consensus rating of "Moderate Buy" from eleven brokerages and one tracked consensus target of $35.56, alongside a separately reported target of $33.71.
USAR closed at $11.82, down 5.9%, and sits below both its 50-day average of $16.55 and its 200-day average of $19.27, with the 50-day below the 200-day. The stock's 52-week range spans $11.45 to $43.98, and its one-month, three-month, six-month and one-year returns are all negative. The GekkoIndex reads 76.1, placing USAR in the Buying zone, while Gekko Fair Value stands at $19.3, leaving price 38.8% below that level.
The next earnings date falls on 5 November 2026, 24 days away, placing the report inside a typical 20-trading-day holding window; the prior quarter's EPS of -$0.08 missed a -$0.07 estimate with a -2.2% reaction. No insider, Congress or unusual options activity appears in the current windows. Seasonality over the next 20 trading days has averaged -15.4% across 3 years, rising in 2 of them, a mixed signal worth noting alongside the pending government funding milestones referenced in recent coverage.
Written by AI from the Oct 12, 2026 close and checked automatically against the figures on this page.
USA Rare Earth price vs fair value
Close $11.82200-day averageGekko Fair Value $19.30
USA Rare Earth quick facts
- Market cap
- $1.57B
- P/E ratio
- —
- Forward P/E
- 33.3
- EPS, TTM
- −$2.49
- Revenue, TTM
- $13.16M
- Profit margin
- 0%
- Dividend yield
- —
- Beta
- 2.68
- Volume
- 12.82M avg 13.04M
- 1-year return
- −62.0%
- Typical daily move
- ±5.7%
- Typical 20-day move
- ±8.6%
- 50-day average
- $16.55
- 200-day average
- $19.27
- Next earnings
- Nov 5
- Shares outstanding
- 375.1M
USA Rare Earth swing-trade checklist
USA Rare Earth scores 2 supportive, 1 mixed and 2 headwinds across the 5 checklist items with data.
Six things swing traders check before a 20-day hold, read from the latest data.
2 supportive1 mixed2 headwinds
- Trendheadwind
Below 50 and 200-day
Close $11.82 is below the 50-day ($16.55) and 200-day ($19.27) averages, and the 50-day is below the 200-day.
See the chart - GekkoIndexsupportive
76.1, Buying
Reading 76.1 is in the Buying zone.
See the GekkoIndex - Fair valuesupportive
38.8% below
Price is 38.8% below Gekko Fair Value (more than 5% below).
See fair value - Smart moneyno data
No data
No insider, Congress or unusual options activity in the window.
See smart money - Earnings riskheadwind
Reports in 24 days
Reports on Nov 5, 2026, 24 days away — inside a typical 20-trading-day hold.
See earnings - Seasonalitymixed
−15.4% on average
From this point in the calendar, the next 20 trading days averaged −15.4% over 3 years, rising in 2 of them.
See seasonality
A description of current data, not a recommendation. How this page works
USA Rare Earth stock chart and price history
USA Rare Earth closed at $11.82 on Oct 12, 2026, −62.0% over the past year, inside a 52-week range of $11.45 to $43.98.
Close50-day average200-day averageVolume
Use the left and right arrow keys to read daily values.
Performance Breakdown
- 1 month
- −24.0%
- 3 months
- −35.0%
- 6 months
- −29.6%
- 1 year
- −62.0%
The full USAR chart adds GekkoIndex, insider, options, Congress and hedge fund markers, plus TrendCandles™.Open USAR in Gekko
Follow USA Rare Earth through every session
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About USA Rare Earth
USA Rare Earth makes magnets, with a focus on NdFeB magnets used across a wide range of equipment. Within the United States, it supplies these magnet products to buyers in defense, automotive, aerospace, general industrial work, healthcare, and consumer electronics, making it a supplier to several different industries rather than a single one.
The company is building out a facility meant to cover the whole process behind these magnets, starting with sourcing and extracting the underlying minerals, then moving through processing and on to finished manufacturing. By housing these stages together, USA Rare Earth is structured around controlling its supply chain from raw material to final product rather than depending on outside processors at each step.
Shares of USA Rare Earth trade on the NASDAQ under the ticker USAR.
- Listed
- NASDAQ
- Sector
- Producer manufacturing
- Industry
- Metal fabrication
- Website
- usare.com
USA Rare Earth GekkoIndex: the smart money zone
USA Rare Earth’s GekkoIndex — Gekko’s 0 to 100 smart money score — reads 76.1, in the Buying zone, up 6.2 points over five sessions.
76.1Buying
Up 6.2 points over five sessions, from the Accumulation zone.
Reading for Oct 12, 2026
What followed past readings in each zone
| Zone | Readings | 5 days | 20 days | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Buying (current zone) | 17 | +4.9% | +5.9% | ||
| Accumulation | 184 | +4.4% | +19.7% | ||
| Neutral | 356 | +0.4% | +0.1% | ||
| Distribution | 68 | −2.4% | −4.9% | ||
| Selling | 6 | Too few readings yet | |||
Average USAR share-price change over the trading days after each daily reading in its GekkoIndex history. Across every stock Gekko tracks, Buying readings averaged +3.1% over 20 days. Past behaviour doesn’t guarantee future results.
Buying zone: Smart money likely accumulating heavily. About the five zones →
See every daily GekkoIndex reading plotted over the USAR price, zone by zone.Track USAR in Gekko
Is USA Rare Earth stock overvalued? Gekko Fair Value
USA Rare Earth trades 38.8% below Gekko Fair Value of $19.30, so the shares are undervalued on Gekko’s estimate.
Gekko’s own estimate of what USA Rare Earth shares are worth, recalculated every trading day.
$19.30
Gekko Fair Value, Oct 10, 2026
38.8% Undervalued
At the end of Aug 2026 the price was 11.2% below the estimate.
Gekko Fair ValueShare price, month end
Gekko Fair Value on every chart, with the gap to price updating daily.Open USAR in Gekko
USA Rare Earth insider and Congress trading
No open-market insider purchases were filed for USA Rare Earth, and no Congress trades were disclosed, in the last 90 days.
Plus buybacks, unusual options and fund positions, each dated to when it became public.
Congress trades last 90 days
No trades in USAR were disclosed by members of Congress in the last 90 days.
From congressional disclosures, which report amounts as ranges.
Congress disclosures for USAR, plotted on the chart in Gekko.Open USAR in Gekko
Buybacks
USA Rare Earth has been buying back its own shares.
- Bought back, quarter ended Dec 31, 2024
- $246.4M
- As a share of market cap
- 15.71%
From company filings.
USA Rare Earth earnings: next date and track record
USA Rare Earth reports on Nov 5, 2026 (24 days away), and beat the EPS estimate in 1 of its last 4 reports.
Next earnings report
Nov 5, 2026
24 days away
- EPS estimate
- −$0.10
- Revenue estimate
- $13.09M
1 of 4reports beat the EPS estimate
±3.7%average move across the report
3 of 8reports followed by a gain
Share-price move across each report
Last earnings call, Aug 10, 2026 AI summary
- What they said
- The call focused on USA Rare Earth's strategic progress building an integrated rare earths supply chain outside China, operational updates, and near-term commercial activity. Management emphasized the company's ambition to lead the non-China rare earths tier, the strategic rationale following Chinese export restrictions, and the team's rapid execution. Q2 financials were modest: ~$6 million in third-party revenues from metal and alloy operations, gross margins pressured by higher raw material input costs (notably heavy rare earths), and operating expenses of approximately $45 million driven in part by M&A, legal and consulting costs. Management reported progress on customer engagement (prototype and production purchase orders), ramp plans for magnet and metal-making facilities (Stillwater, Blacksburg), updates on hydromet and recycling initiatives, and the impending close of the Serra Verde acquisition following an August 28 shareholder vote. They expect to see pricing momentum from higher prices already implemented and outlined capacity timelines (Stillwater: 600 MT run rate by year-end, 1,200 MT in Q1; Blacksburg: shell complete end of 2027, operational early 2028, full capacities by end of 2029). The tone combined assertive strategic ambition with measured acknowledgement of current operational and market headwinds.
- Guidance
- Operational and commercial near-term guidance provided: - Expect pricing increases to be visible in upcoming quarters. - Expect magnet and metal sales by the end of the year (qualification ongoing). - Stillwater facility: 600 metric tons run-rate magnetic capacity by year-end; an additional 600 metric tons (1,200 MT) in Q1 next year. - Blacksburg: shell completed end of 2027, operational early 2028; full capacities by end of 2029 (5,000 MT metal making; 6,400 MT magnet making). - Serra Verde acquisition: shareholder vote August 28; expected close shortly after and scaling to ~6,400 MT Trio run-rate capacity by end of 2027. - DFS (hydromet) by year-end; S-K 1300 filing early next year.
- Risks flagged
- Key risks raised or implied: - Raw material supply constraints, particularly heavy rare earths, leading to higher input costs and margin pressure. - Pricing volatility and two-tier market dynamics (China vs. non-China). - Execution and integration risk (scaling multiple facilities and closing/ integrating Serra Verde). - High operating expenses relative to current revenues (Q2 revenue ~$6M vs. OpEx ~$45M). - Dependence on successful qualification with customers to convert MOUs/POs into sustained revenue. - Regulatory/shareholder or financing hurdles related to acquisitions or government-linked SPV arrangements (though management stated no remaining regulatory hurdles for Serra Verde other than a shareholder vote).
| Reported | EPS | Revenue | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 10, 2026 | −$0.08 est −$0.07 | $5.82M est $8.04M | −2.2% |
| Mar 30, 2026 | −$0.19 est −$0.12 | $1.64M est $2.98M | −1.8% |
| Nov 6, 2025 | −$0.25 est −$0.06 | — | +2.9% |
| Aug 11, 2025 | −$0.08 est −$0.13 | — | +17.1% |
| Mar 31, 2025 | −$0.15 | — | +5.5% |
| Sep 30, 2024 | $0.05 | — | −0.2% |
| Jun 30, 2024 | $0.10 | — | −0.1% |
| Mar 31, 2024 | $0.09 | — | 0.0% |
“Move” is the close of the first session after the report compared with the close of the last session before it, so it reads the same whether the company reported before the open or after the close.
USA Rare Earth stock forecast and analyst price targets
Analysts’ average 12-month price target for USA Rare Earth is $35.56, +200.8% from the last close, from 7 firms rating the stock in the last 90 days.
$35.56consensus 12-month target, +200.8% from the last close
Now $11.82Avg $35.56
Low $21High $45
Each firm’s latest rating in the last 90 days: 7 firms.
Latest analyst actions
| Date | Firm | Target | vs price |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 2 | Jefferies | $21 | +77.7% |
| Aug 25 | Northland Securities | $45 | +280.7% |
| Aug 21 | Roth MKM | $30 | +153.8% |
| Aug 20 | Roth MKM | $30 | +153.8% |
| Aug 11 | Benchmark Co. | $45 | +280.7% |
+5.9%average 20-day move after past Buying readings
−15.4%average move over the next 20 trading days in the last 3 years
±5.7%typical daily move, from the 14-day average range
Gekko doesn’t publish price predictions. These are analyst targets and historical base rates, which don’t guarantee future results.
USA Rare Earth seasonality: the next 20 trading days
Over the next 20 trading days from Oct 10, USA Rare Earth averaged −15.4% across the last 3 years, rising in 2 of them.
Next 20 trading days, by year
Average move and hit rate
| Window | Average | Years higher |
|---|---|---|
| Next 5 trading days | −4.8% | 2 of 3 |
| Next 10 trading days | −9.2% | 2 of 3 |
| Next 15 trading days | −13.4% | 2 of 3 |
| Next 20 trading days | −15.4% | 2 of 3 |
| Next 30 trading days | −19.7% | 2 of 3 |
For scale, USAR’s typical 20-trading-day move in either direction is about 8.6%.
USA Rare Earth market cap and key statistics
USA Rare Earth’s market cap is $1.57B and revenue of $13.16M over the last twelve months.
Valuation
- Market cap
- $1.57B
- Forward P/E
- 33.3
- EPS, TTM
- −$2.49
- Gekko Fair Value
- $19.30
Trading
- Volume
- 12.82M
- Avg volume, 20 days
- 13.04M
- 52-week high
- $43.98
- 52-week low
- $11.45
- Shares outstanding
- 375.1M
Financials
- Revenue, TTM
- $13.16M
- Profit margin
- 0%
- Return on equity
- -23.6%
- Quarterly earnings growth, YoY
- 0.0%
Risk and income
- Beta
- 2.68
- Typical daily move
- ±5.7%
- Typical 20-day move
- ±8.6%
USA Rare Earth stock news this week
6 headlines about USA Rare Earth from the past week, newest first, each linking to the publisher.
- USA Rare Earth Drops 6% With Milestone-Based Government Funding Still Ahead of It; MP Materials Falls 6%, Critical Metals Holds Steady24/7 Wall Street, Oct 12
- USA Rare Earth's $2.8 Billion Brazil Deal vs. Its $1.2 Billion South Carolina Bet: Which One Actually Matters More?The Motley Fool, Oct 11
- What $10,000 Invested in USA Rare Earth 1 Year Ago Is Worth TodayThe Motley Fool, Oct 11
- Could Investing $5,000 in USA Rare Earth Help Make You a Millionaire?The Motley Fool, Oct 9
- USA Rare Earth Drops 5% as Selling Runs Into a Second Day; United States Antimony Falls 4%, MP Materials Dips24/7 Wall Street, Oct 8
- USA Rare Earth and MP Materials Fall 5% as Rare Earth Stocks Slide Together; Critical Metals Declines 3%24/7 Wall Street, Oct 7
USA Rare Earth peers
USA Rare Earth’s 6 largest industry peers by market value, with today’s move, GekkoIndex zone and gap to Gekko Fair Value.
| Stock | GekkoIndex zone | vs Fair Value |
|---|---|---|
| RBCRBC Bearings | Neutral | 8.2% above |
| MLIMueller Industries | Accumulation | 0.6% below |
| VMIValmont Industries | Accumulation | 4.2% above |
| ROCKGibraltar Industries | Buying | 28.0% below |
| PKOHPark-Ohio | Neutral | 18.4% below |
| IIINInsteel Industries | Neutral | 22.4% below |
A peer links to its own page where one exists.
USA Rare Earth stock FAQ
What is USA Rare Earth’s market cap?
USA Rare Earth’s market cap is $1.57B at the Oct 12, 2026 close of $11.82, with 375.1M shares outstanding.
What is the USA Rare Earth stock forecast?
The consensus analyst 12-month price target for USA Rare Earth is $35.56, +200.8% from the last close. Of the 7 firms that rated the stock in the last 90 days, 7 rate it a buy, 0 a hold and 0 a sell. Gekko doesn’t publish price predictions of its own.
Is USA Rare Earth stock overvalued or undervalued?
On Gekko’s estimate USA Rare Earth is undervalued: the Oct 12, 2026 close of $11.82 is 38.8% below Gekko Fair Value of $19.30. Gekko Fair Value is recalculated every trading day, and a gap inside 5% either way counts as about fair value.
When does USA Rare Earth report earnings next?
USA Rare Earth is expected to report on Nov 5, 2026 (24 days away). Analysts expect earnings of −$0.10 per share on revenue of $13.09M. USA Rare Earth beat the earnings estimate in 1 of its last 4 reports, moving 3.7% on average across the report.
What is USA Rare Earth’s 52-week high and low?
USA Rare Earth’s 52-week high is $43.98 and its 52-week low is $11.45; it closed at $11.82 on Oct 12, 2026, −62.0% over the past year.
Is USA Rare Earth stock a buy right now?
Gekko describes the data; it does not make buy or sell recommendations. On the swing-trade checklist, 2 of the 5 items with data read as supportive (gekkoindex and fair value), 1 as mixed (seasonality) and 2 as headwinds (trend and earnings risk). The checklist is a description of current data, not a recommendation.
How this page works
During US trading hours the price at the top of the page is a delayed quote, refreshed every 15 minutes; everything else is rebuilt after each US market close. The GekkoIndex, Gekko Fair Value and the checklist are Gekko’s own, and the Gekko Brief is written by AI from this page’s data and checked against it before it is published. How Gekko’s data works →
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