NYSE: UNH

UnitedHealth (UNH) Stock Analysis & Forecast

UnitedHealth Group Incorporated. Health services sector, managed health care industry. Market cap $342.3B.

$376.90+1.69 (+0.5%)

Close on Sep 18, 2026. Page updated Sep 19, 9:16 pm ET.

Gekko Brief

AI summary

UnitedHealth closes at $376.90, up 0.5%, sitting between its 50-day average of $404.33 and 200-day average of $354.32, reflecting a mixed trend. The GekkoIndex reads 67.4, placing the stock in the Accumulation zone, and price sits just 0.2% below Gekko Fair Value of $377.65. Over the past six months the stock has gained 34.4%, though the one-month return is -3% and three-month return is -6%.

This week's coverage centers on the aftermath of UnitedHealth's Q2 2026 beat and raised guidance, with EPS of $6.38 against a $4.94 estimate and a stock reaction of 1.8%, alongside continued commentary on margin recovery and medical cost ratio improvement. Separately, a class-action lawsuit alleges the company used an AI tool called nH Predict with a 90% error rate to deny post-acute care to Medicare Advantage patients, raising regulatory and legal scrutiny alongside the operational turnaround narrative.

UnitedHealth reports next on 13 October 2026 before the open, 23 days away and inside a typical 20-trading-day holding window; the last eight quarters show six EPS beats, with an average absolute reaction of 9.4%. No insider, Congress, or options activity appears in the respective 90-day and 30-day windows, though three billionaire holders and two trailblazer holders are noted. Seasonally, the next 20 trading days have averaged a 3.7% gain over 5 years, positive in 3 of them. Analyst consensus stands at 17 buy, 5 hold, 0 sell across 22 firms, with a consensus target of $481.72.

Written by AI and checked automatically against the figures on this page. Generated Sep 20, 2026 from the data above.

Price vs fair value

Close $376.90200-day averageGekko Fair Value $377.65

Key stats

Market cap
$342.3B
P/E ratio
24.1
Forward P/E
16.7
EPS, TTM
$15.57
Revenue, TTM
$450.5B
Profit margin
3.1%
Dividend yield
2.39%
Beta
0.62
Volume
8.10M avg 4.62M
1-year return
+10.3%
Typical daily move
±2.7%
Typical 20-day move
±4.8%
50-day average
$404.33
200-day average
$354.32
Next earnings
Oct 13 before open
Shares outstanding
897.6M
52-week range
$255.97$461.62

UnitedHealth swing-trade checklist

UnitedHealth scores 2 supportive, 2 mixed and 1 headwind across the 5 checklist items with data.

Six things swing traders check before a 20-day hold, read from the latest data.

2 supportive2 mixed1 headwind

  • Trendmixed

    Averages disagree

    Close $376.90 sits between the 50-day ($404.33) and 200-day ($354.32) averages, or the averages disagree.

    See the chart
  • GekkoIndexsupportive

    67.4, Accumulation

    Reading 67.4 is in the Accumulation zone.

    See the GekkoIndex
  • Fair valuemixed

    0.2% below

    Price is within 5% of Gekko Fair Value (0.2% below).

    See fair value
  • Smart moneyno data

    No data

    No insider, Congress or unusual options activity in the window.

    See smart money
  • Earnings riskheadwind

    Reports in 23 days

    Reports on Oct 13, 2026, 23 days away — inside a typical 20-trading-day hold.

    See earnings
  • Seasonalitysupportive

    +3.7% on average

    From this point in the calendar, the next 20 trading days averaged +3.7% over 5 years, rising in 3 of them.

    See seasonality

A description of current data, not a recommendation. How this page works

UnitedHealth stock chart and price history

UnitedHealth closed at $376.90 on Sep 18, 2026, +10.3% over the past year, inside a 52-week range of $255.97 to $461.62.

Close50-day average200-day averageVolume

Use the left and right arrow keys to read daily values.

Performance Breakdown

1 month
−3.0%
3 months
−6.0%
6 months
+34.4%
1 year
+10.3%
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About UnitedHealth

UnitedHealth provides health coverage and related care services to people and organizations across the United States. It is widely recognized for its health benefit plans, which range from employer-sponsored coverage to individual policies, along with programs aimed at older adults dealing with chronic conditions and preventive care needs. Its offerings also touch on Medicaid, children's insurance, dental benefits, and hospital and clinical care.

The company runs through four main units. UnitedHealthcare handles benefit plans for large employers, government bodies, smaller businesses, and individual customers. Optum Health connects patients with specialist providers and delivers care management and financial services to employers, insurers, and government clients. Optum Insight supplies data tools, software, and consulting work to hospitals, physicians, insurers, and life sciences firms. Optum Rx oversees pharmacy operations, including retail networks, home delivery, and specialty medications, alongside programs for managing drug therapy and medication use.

UnitedHealth was founded in 1977 and is headquartered in Minnetonka, Minnesota. Its shares are listed on the NYSE under the ticker UNH.

Listed
NYSE
Sector
Health services
Industry
Managed health care
Website
unitedhealthgroup.com

UnitedHealth GekkoIndex: the smart money zone

UnitedHealth’s GekkoIndex — Gekko’s 0 to 100 smart money score — reads 67.4, in the Accumulation zone, down 1.7 points over five sessions.

010067.4Accumulation

Down 1.7 points over five sessions.

Reading for Sep 18, 2026

What followed past readings in each zone

ZoneReadings5 days10 days20 days50 days
Buying51−0.3%+2.5%+3.0%+0.5%
Accumulation (current zone)238+0.2%0.0%+2.3%+4.2%
Neutral342+0.2%−0.1%−1.6%−2.1%
Distribution29−4.1%−3.8%−4.2%−4.1%
Selling2Too few readings yet

Average UNH share-price change over the trading days after each daily reading in its GekkoIndex history. Across every stock Gekko tracks, Accumulation readings averaged +2.3% over 20 days. Past behaviour doesn’t guarantee future results.

Accumulation zone: Institutional interest building. About the five zones →

See every daily GekkoIndex reading plotted over the UNH price, zone by zone.Track UNH in Gekko

Is UnitedHealth stock overvalued? Gekko Fair Value

UnitedHealth trades 0.2% below Gekko Fair Value of $377.65, so the shares are about fair value on Gekko’s estimate.

Gekko’s own estimate of what UnitedHealth shares are worth, recalculated every trading day.

$377.65

Gekko Fair Value, Sep 19, 2026

0.2% below fair value · About fair value

How Gekko Fair Value works →

Gekko Fair Value on every chart, with the gap to price updating daily.Open UNH in Gekko

UnitedHealth insider and Congress trading

No open-market insider purchases were filed for UnitedHealth, and no Congress trades were disclosed, in the last 90 days.

Plus buybacks, unusual options and fund positions, each dated to when it became public.

Insider buying last 90 days

No open-market insider purchases were filed for UNH in the last 90 days.

From Form 4 filings, dated to when each was filed.

Every UNH insider filing, plotted on the chart in Gekko.Open UNH in Gekko

Congress trades last 90 days

No trades in UNH were disclosed by members of Congress in the last 90 days.

From congressional disclosures, which report amounts as ranges.

Congress disclosures for UNH, plotted on the chart in Gekko.Open UNH in Gekko

Buybacks

UnitedHealth has been buying back its own shares.

Bought back, quarter ended Jun 30, 2026
$1.65B
As a share of market cap
0.48%

From company filings.

Hedge funds and billionaires quarter ended Jun 30

5of the funds Gekko tracks hold UNH.

1added2opened2trimmed2sold out
Which funds are on each side, name by name.Unlock in Gekko

UnitedHealth earnings: next date and track record

UnitedHealth reports on Oct 13, 2026, before the open (23 days away), and beat the EPS estimate in 6 of its last 8 reports.

6 of 8reports beat the EPS estimate
±9.4%average move across the report
2 of 8reports followed by a gain

Share-price move across each report

−5.6%Oct ’24−6.2%Jan ’25−27.3%Apr ’25−5.7%Jul ’25−2.9%Oct ’25−16.4%Jan ’26+9.3%Apr ’26+1.8%Jul ’26

Last earnings call, Jul 16, 2026 AI summary

What they said
UnitedHealth Group reported stronger-than-expected second-quarter 2026 results driven by improved Medicare Advantage performance and operational improvements at Optum Health. Adjusted EPS was $6.38 vs. $4.08 prior year, operating earnings rose 55%, and revenues were largely flat at $112 billion. Management highlighted continued progress on cost and operating disciplines across UnitedHealthcare and Optum, early benefits from AI deployments and value-based care initiatives, and a disciplined approach to benefit design and network management. Commercial benefits remain pressured by elevated medical cost trends (including IDR/No Surprises Act effects, specialty drugs and coding intensity), while Medicare trends are moderating versus original planning assumptions. Optum Insight and Optum Rx delivered in-line or ahead-of-plan results, and Optum Health showed measurable improvements in hospitalization and readmission metrics. Management emphasized continued reinvestment, AI commercialization, and a long-term focus on returning to historical growth and margin targets.
Guidance
Updated/explicit guidance or commitments given on the call: - Expect full-year Medicare Advantage enrollment to decline by approximately 1.1 million. - Expect Medicare margins to finish 2026 above 3%. - Medicaid 2026 margins expected to be within previously communicated range of -1% to -1.7%. - Expect 2026 Medicare medical cost trend to come in below the initial estimate of ~10%; a specific new point estimate will likely be provided on the next call. - UnitedHealth Group now expects to complete at least $5 billion of share repurchases in 2026 (previously $2.5 billion). - Dividend increased (board raised dividend to $9.28 per share as noted). - Company reiterated a stepping-off EPS baseline near $19.50-$20 and reiterated the long-term 13%-16% growth algorithm as the target trajectory. - Exchange profits for 2026 will be returned to consumers (no financial benefit retained).
Risks flagged
Key risks discussed or emphasized: - Elevated and persistent medical cost trends in commercial business (pharmacy, specialty drugs including GLP-1s, coding intensity). - Ineffective IDR/No Surprises Act dispute process adding material incremental cost and geographic variability; potential for continued adverse arbitration outcomes. - Medicaid pressure in specialty pharmacy, behavioral health, home and community-based services and increased inpatient/SNF costs for complex populations. - Uncertainty from regulatory programs (Stars methodology and industry lawsuits) and general CMS policy changes. - Seasonality and prior-year development effects (weather, respiratory season) that can favorably or unfavorably affect results. - Execution risk around Optum Health restructuring, scaling initiatives, and timing of investments (near-term costs may press on margins).
ReportedEPSSurpriseRevenueSurpriseMove
Jul 16, 2026$6.38
est $4.94
+29.1%$112.0B
est $110.8B
+1.1%+1.8%
Apr 21, 2026$7.23
est $6.61
+9.4%$111.7B
est $109.4B
+2.1%+9.3%
Jan 27, 2026$2.11
est $2.10
+0.5%$113.2B
est $113.8B
−0.5%−16.4%
Oct 28, 2025$2.92
est $2.80
+4.3%$113.2B
est $113.0B
+0.1%−2.9%
Jul 29, 2025$4.08
est $4.45
−8.3%$111.6B
est $111.5B
+0.1%−5.7%
Apr 17, 2025$7.20
est $7.29
−1.2%$109.6B
est $111.6B
−1.8%−27.3%
Jan 16, 2025$6.81
est $6.74
+1.0%$100.8B
est $101.6B
−0.8%−6.2%
Oct 15, 2024$7.15
est $7.03
+1.7%$99.18B
est $99.14B
0.0%−5.6%

“Move” is the close of the first session after the report compared with the close of the last session before it, so it reads the same whether the company reported before the open or after the close.

UnitedHealth stock forecast and analyst price targets

Analysts’ average 12-month price target for UnitedHealth is $481.72, +27.8% from the last close, from 22 firms rating the stock in the last 90 days.

$481.72consensus 12-month target, +27.8% from the last close
Low $380High $529
Buy17
Hold5
Sell0

Each firm’s latest rating in the last 90 days: 22 firms.

Latest analyst actions

DateFirmRatingTargetvs price
Sep 15Wells FargoBuy, maintained$526+39.6%
Sep 14UBSBuy, maintained$490+30.0%
Sep 14Evercore ISIBuy, maintained$480+27.4%
Sep 10BarclaysBuy, maintained$441+17.0%
Sep 9BernsteinBuy, maintained$512+35.8%
+2.3%average 20-day move after past Accumulation readings
+3.7%average move over the next 20 trading days in the last 5 years
±2.7%typical daily move, from the 14-day average range

Gekko doesn’t publish price predictions. These are analyst targets and historical base rates, which don’t guarantee future results.

UnitedHealth seasonality: the next 20 trading days

Over the next 20 trading days from Sep 19, UnitedHealth averaged +3.7% across the last 5 years, rising in 3 of them.

Next 20 trading days, by year

+2.9%2021−0.3%2022+11.6%2023−1.9%2024+5.9%2025

Average move and hit rate

WindowAverageYears higher
Next 5 trading days+0.4%2 of 5
Next 10 trading days+1.4%3 of 5
Next 15 trading days+1.9%3 of 5
Next 20 trading days+3.7%3 of 5
Next 30 trading days+5.2%4 of 5

For scale, UNH’s typical 20-trading-day move in either direction is about 4.8%.

UnitedHealth market cap and key statistics

UnitedHealth’s market cap is $342.3B, with a P/E ratio of 24.1 and revenue of $450.5B over the last twelve months.

Valuation

Market cap
$342.3B
P/E ratio
24.1
Forward P/E
16.7
EPS, TTM
$15.57
Gekko Fair Value
$377.65

Trading

Volume
8.10M
Avg volume, 20 days
4.62M
52-week high
$461.62
52-week low
$255.97
Shares outstanding
897.6M

Financials

Revenue, TTM
$450.5B
Profit margin
3.1%
Return on equity
14.1%
Quarterly earnings growth, YoY
+61.5%

Risk and income

Beta
0.62
Typical daily move
±2.7%
Typical 20-day move
±4.8%
Dividend yield
2.39%

UnitedHealth stock news this week

Coverage of UnitedHealth this week reads positive: 4 positive, 4 neutral and 2 negative headlines.

News sentiment positive

UnitedHealth peers

UnitedHealth’s 6 largest industry peers by market value, with today’s move, GekkoIndex zone and gap to Gekko Fair Value.

StockTodayGekkoIndex zonevs Fair Value
ELVElevance Health−0.9%Neutral33.5% below
CICigna+0.2%Accumulation37.8% below
HUMHumana+0.4%Accumulation24.5% below
CNCCentene−2.7%Neutral23.2% below
MOHMolina Healthcare−2.3%Neutral40.3% below
OSCROscar Health−0.3%Neutral0.5% below

A peer links to its own page where one exists.

In the Buying zone today

Reporting earnings this week

Popular on Gekko

UnitedHealth stock FAQ

What is UnitedHealth’s market cap?

UnitedHealth’s market cap is $342.3B at the Sep 18, 2026 close of $376.90, with 897.6M shares outstanding. The shares trade on a P/E ratio of 24.1.

What is the UnitedHealth stock forecast?

The consensus analyst 12-month price target for UnitedHealth is $481.72, +27.8% from the last close. Of the 22 firms that rated the stock in the last 90 days, 17 rate it a buy, 5 a hold and 0 a sell. Gekko doesn’t publish price predictions of its own.

Is UnitedHealth stock overvalued or undervalued?

On Gekko’s estimate UnitedHealth is about fair value: the Sep 18, 2026 close of $376.90 is 0.2% below Gekko Fair Value of $377.65. Gekko Fair Value is recalculated every trading day, and a gap inside 5% either way counts as about fair value.

When does UnitedHealth report earnings next?

UnitedHealth is expected to report on Oct 13, 2026, before the market opens (23 days away). Analysts expect earnings of $4.12 per share on revenue of $111.3B. UnitedHealth beat the earnings estimate in 6 of its last 8 reports, moving 9.4% on average across the report.

What is UnitedHealth’s 52-week high and low?

UnitedHealth’s 52-week high is $461.62 and its 52-week low is $255.97; it closed at $376.90 on Sep 18, 2026, +10.3% over the past year.

Is UnitedHealth stock a buy right now?

Gekko describes the data; it does not make buy or sell recommendations. On the swing-trade checklist, 2 of the 5 items with data read as supportive (gekkoindex and seasonality), 2 as mixed (trend and fair value) and 1 as a headwind (earnings risk). The checklist is a description of current data, not a recommendation.

How this page works

Prices and signals update after every US market close; the GekkoIndex, Gekko Fair Value and the checklist are Gekko’s own, and the Gekko Brief is written by AI from this page’s data and checked against it before it is published. How Gekko’s data works →

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