Insider buying last 90 days
No open-market insider purchases were filed for ALHC in the last 90 days.
From Form 4 filings, dated to when each was filed.
Every ALHC insider filing, plotted on the chart in Gekko.Open ALHC in Gekko
NASDAQ: ALHC
Alignment Healthcare (ALHC) Stock Analysis & Forecast
Oct 12 close
$8.09+0.54 (+7.2%)
Gekko Brief
AI summaryOct 12 closeAlignment Healthcare shares swing this week around its California Medicare Advantage contract, which lost its four-star rating and dropped to 3.5 stars for 2027. The company has sued CMS over the methodology behind the 2027 star ratings, alleging a deviation from established procedure, while also launching a new Medicare Advantage plan, Central Health Harmony, for Asian American seniors in Los Angeles and Orange counties starting January 1, 2027. Analyst reaction has been negative: UBS cut its price target to $9.00 from $22.00 citing utilization pressures and lost Stars for 2028, while TD Cowen lowered its target to $12.00 from $21.00 on anticipated Q3-Q4 2026 EBITDA pressure from IP/SNF utilization and unfavorable claims development.
The stock closed at $8.09, up 7.2% on the day but still well below both its 50-day average of $11.38 and 200-day average of $17.66, with the 50-day below the 200-day. Shares sit 61.8% lower over three months and 53.9% lower over the past year, near the 52-week low of $6.01. The GekkoIndex reads 65.7, in the Accumulation zone, while the price remains 43.8% below Gekko Fair Value of $14.39.
Earnings are due 29 October after close, 17 days away and within a typical 20-trading-day holding window; the last report beat estimates ($0.17 versus $0.13) but still triggered an 18.8% reaction. No insider, Congress or unusual options activity appears in the current windows. Seasonally, the next 20 trading days have averaged a 4.6% gain over five years, rising in three of them.
Written by AI from the Oct 12, 2026 close and checked automatically against the figures on this page.
Alignment Healthcare price vs fair value
Close $8.09200-day averageGekko Fair Value $14.39
Alignment Healthcare quick facts
- Market cap
- $1.68B
- P/E ratio
- 45.8
- Forward P/E
- 204.1
- EPS, TTM
- $0.19
- Revenue, TTM
- $4.58B
- Profit margin
- 0.9%
- Dividend yield
- —
- Beta
- 1.14
- Volume
- 9.89M avg 14.68M
- 1-year return
- −53.9%
- Typical daily move
- ±8.4%
- Typical 20-day move
- ±13.1%
- 50-day average
- $11.38
- 200-day average
- $17.66
- Next earnings
- Oct 29 after close
- Shares outstanding
- 207.4M
Alignment Healthcare swing-trade checklist
Alignment Healthcare scores 3 supportive, 0 mixed and 2 headwinds across the 5 checklist items with data.
Six things swing traders check before a 20-day hold, read from the latest data.
3 supportive0 mixed2 headwinds
- Trendheadwind
Below 50 and 200-day
Close $8.09 is below the 50-day ($11.38) and 200-day ($17.66) averages, and the 50-day is below the 200-day.
See the chart - GekkoIndexsupportive
65.7, Accumulation
Reading 65.7 is in the Accumulation zone.
See the GekkoIndex - Fair valuesupportive
43.8% below
Price is 43.8% below Gekko Fair Value (more than 5% below).
See fair value - Smart moneyno data
No data
No insider, Congress or unusual options activity in the window.
See smart money - Earnings riskheadwind
Reports in 17 days
Reports on Oct 29, 2026, 17 days away — inside a typical 20-trading-day hold.
See earnings - Seasonalitysupportive
+4.6% on average
From this point in the calendar, the next 20 trading days averaged +4.6% over 5 years, rising in 3 of them.
See seasonality
A description of current data, not a recommendation. How this page works
Alignment Healthcare stock chart and price history
Alignment Healthcare closed at $8.09 on Oct 12, 2026, −53.9% over the past year, inside a 52-week range of $6.01 to $25.12.
Close50-day average200-day averageVolume
Use the left and right arrow keys to read daily values.
Performance Breakdown
- 1 month
- −35.8%
- 3 months
- −61.8%
- 6 months
- −61.4%
- 1 year
- −53.9%
The full ALHC chart adds GekkoIndex, insider, options, Congress and hedge fund markers, plus TrendCandles™.Open ALHC in Gekko
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About Alignment Healthcare
Alignment Healthcare provides Medicare Advantage coverage built around a technology platform aimed at consumers. It focuses on serving older adults and others who need specialized care, offering a range of Medicare Advantage plans designed to support this population across the country.
The company runs its own Medicare Advantage programs directly in California, North Carolina, and Nevada. In addition to these proprietary plans, it arranges and supplies healthcare services such as professional, institutional, and other supplemental care for members enrolled in certain outside Medicare Advantage HMO plans, extending its reach beyond the plans it owns.
Alignment Healthcare was founded in 2013 and is headquartered in Orange, California. Its shares are listed on the NASDAQ under the ticker ALHC.
- Listed
- NASDAQ
- Sector
- Health services
- Industry
- Managed health care
- Website
- alignmenthealth.com
Alignment Healthcare GekkoIndex: the smart money zone
Alignment Healthcare’s GekkoIndex — Gekko’s 0 to 100 smart money score — reads 65.7, in the Accumulation zone, down 0.3 points over five sessions.
65.7Accumulation
Down 0.3 points over five sessions.
Reading for Oct 12, 2026
What followed past readings in each zone
| Zone | Readings | 5 days | 20 days | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Buying | 41 | +1.9% | +12.9% | ||
| Accumulation (current zone) | 232 | −1.1% | +2.2% | ||
| Neutral | 334 | +1.9% | +3.1% | ||
| Distribution | 71 | −1.2% | −2.5% | ||
| Selling | 4 | Too few readings yet | |||
Average ALHC share-price change over the trading days after each daily reading in its GekkoIndex history. Across every stock Gekko tracks, Accumulation readings averaged +2.2% over 20 days. Past behaviour doesn’t guarantee future results.
Accumulation zone: Institutional interest building. About the five zones →
See every daily GekkoIndex reading plotted over the ALHC price, zone by zone.Track ALHC in Gekko
Is Alignment Healthcare stock overvalued? Gekko Fair Value
Alignment Healthcare trades 43.8% below Gekko Fair Value of $14.39, so the shares are undervalued on Gekko’s estimate.
Gekko’s own estimate of what Alignment Healthcare shares are worth, recalculated every trading day.
$14.39
Gekko Fair Value, Oct 10, 2026
43.8% Undervalued
At the end of Aug 2026 the price was 38.8% below the estimate.
Gekko Fair ValueShare price, month end
Gekko Fair Value on every chart, with the gap to price updating daily.Open ALHC in Gekko
Alignment Healthcare insider and Congress trading
No open-market insider purchases were filed for Alignment Healthcare, and no Congress trades were disclosed, in the last 90 days.
Plus buybacks, unusual options and fund positions, each dated to when it became public.
Congress trades last 90 days
No trades in ALHC were disclosed by members of Congress in the last 90 days.
From congressional disclosures, which report amounts as ranges.
Congress disclosures for ALHC, plotted on the chart in Gekko.Open ALHC in Gekko
Buybacks
Alignment Healthcare has been buying back its own shares.
- Bought back, quarter ended Mar 31, 2024
- $350K
- As a share of market cap
- 0.02%
From company filings.
Alignment Healthcare earnings: next date and track record
Alignment Healthcare reports on Oct 29, 2026, after the close (17 days away), and beat the EPS estimate in 7 of its last 8 reports.
Next earnings report
Oct 29, 2026
Expected after the close, 17 days away
- EPS estimate
- −$0.03
- Revenue estimate
- $1.31B
7 of 8reports beat the EPS estimate
±11%average move across the report
3 of 8reports followed by a gain
Share-price move across each report
Last earnings call, Jul 30, 2026 AI summary
- What they said
- Alignment Healthcare reported strong Q2 2026 results driven by 31% growth in health plan membership to 294k and 32% revenue growth to $1.3B. Improved operating performance included adjusted gross profit of $183M (adjusted MBR 86.3%), adjusted SG&A of $115M (8.6% of revenue), and adjusted EBITDA of $68M (5.1% margin), with first-half adjusted EBITDA of $106M and management reiterating they are on track to the full-year midpoint guidance. Management highlighted product and care innovations—an improved AVA AI stratification model and disease registries—and continued investments in clinical operations, automation and AI to support future market expansion and portability. During Q&A, management explained near-term drivers (seasonality, Part D dynamics, higher-acuity new member mix) and said they will make deliberate incremental investments in H2 (weighted to Q3) to prepare for 2027/2028 growth while remaining within guidance. They signaled confidence in their strategy and execution but noted regulatory uncertainty (MA technical rule / STARS), competitive risk, and some prior-year reserve adjustments.
- Guidance
- Reiterated full-year 2026 guidance (midpoint: $154 million adjusted EBITDA). Management indicated they're on track to that midpoint. They signaled targeting ~20% enrollment growth in 2027 and plan market expansions in 2027 (service area expansions in Feb 2027) with more state growth in 2028. Q3 will reflect seasonality and incremental investments; management said there could be an additional double-digit million of investment across clinical and SG&A in H2 (weighted to Q3), but these are within the company's full-year commitments.
- Risks flagged
- Regulatory uncertainty around the 2028 MA technical rule and STARS thresholds and related litigation; potential competitive pressure with 2-3 peers possibly bidding more aggressively in 2027; short-term margin pressure from higher-acuity new-member mix (C/D SNP and dual eligibles); prior-year unfavorable development (~$6M) and reserve bolstering; investment cadence that could reduce near-term profitability if returns are slower than expected; payment integrity/collections variability.
| Reported | EPS | Revenue | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Jul 30, 2026 | $0.17 est $0.13 | $1.34B est $1.31B | −18.8% |
| Apr 30, 2026 | $0.12 est $0.09 | $1.24B est $1.22B | −6.7% |
| Feb 26, 2026 | −$0.05 est −$0.15 | $1.01B est $1.00B | −4.5% |
| Oct 30, 2025 | $0.02 est −$0.01 | $993.7M est $980.9M | −7.4% |
| Jul 30, 2025 | $0.07 est −$0.07 | $1.02B est $960.0M | +17.0% |
| May 1, 2025 | −$0.05 est −$0.13 | $926.9M est $888.3M | −12.4% |
| Feb 27, 2025 | −$0.06 est −$0.08 | $701.2M est $677.4M | +19.2% |
| Oct 29, 2024 | −$0.14 est −$0.14 | $692.4M est $675.5M | +1.6% |
“Move” is the close of the first session after the report compared with the close of the last session before it, so it reads the same whether the company reported before the open or after the close.
Alignment Healthcare stock forecast and analyst price targets
Analysts’ average 12-month price target for Alignment Healthcare is $20.54, +153.9% from the last close, from 10 firms rating the stock in the last 90 days.
$20.54consensus 12-month target, +153.9% from the last close
Now $8.09Avg $20.54
Low $9High $25
Each firm’s latest rating in the last 90 days: 10 firms.
Latest analyst actions
| Date | Firm | Target | vs price |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 12 | TD Cowen | $12 | +48.3% |
| Oct 12 | UBS | $9 | +11.2% |
| Oct 9 | KeyBanc | $12 | +48.3% |
| Oct 9 | J.P. Morgan | $10 | +23.6% |
| Oct 9 | Bank of America Securities | $9 | +11.2% |
+2.2%average 20-day move after past Accumulation readings
+4.6%average move over the next 20 trading days in the last 5 years
±8.4%typical daily move, from the 14-day average range
Gekko doesn’t publish price predictions. These are analyst targets and historical base rates, which don’t guarantee future results.
Alignment Healthcare seasonality: the next 20 trading days
Over the next 20 trading days from Oct 10, Alignment Healthcare averaged +4.6% across the last 5 years, rising in 3 of them.
Next 20 trading days, by year
Average move and hit rate
| Window | Average | Years higher |
|---|---|---|
| Next 5 trading days | +2.4% | 3 of 5 |
| Next 10 trading days | +2.4% | 4 of 5 |
| Next 15 trading days | +5.2% | 3 of 5 |
| Next 20 trading days | +4.6% | 3 of 5 |
| Next 30 trading days | +2.8% | 3 of 5 |
For scale, ALHC’s typical 20-trading-day move in either direction is about 13.1%.
Alignment Healthcare market cap and key statistics
Alignment Healthcare’s market cap is $1.68B, with a P/E ratio of 45.8 and revenue of $4.58B over the last twelve months.
Valuation
- Market cap
- $1.68B
- P/E ratio
- 45.8
- Forward P/E
- 204.1
- EPS, TTM
- $0.19
- Gekko Fair Value
- $14.39
Trading
- Volume
- 9.89M
- Avg volume, 20 days
- 14.68M
- 52-week high
- $25.12
- 52-week low
- $6.01
- Shares outstanding
- 207.4M
Financials
- Revenue, TTM
- $4.58B
- Profit margin
- 0.9%
- Return on equity
- 20%
- Quarterly earnings growth, YoY
- +142.9%
Risk and income
- Beta
- 1.14
- Typical daily move
- ±8.4%
- Typical 20-day move
- ±13.1%
Alignment Healthcare stock news this week
Coverage of Alignment Healthcare this week reads negative: 5 positive, 2 neutral and 17 negative headlines.
- Alignment Healthcare bounces back 7% after sharp prior-session drop (ALHC:NASDAQ)Seeking Alpha, Oct 12
- Alignment Healthcare sues CMS over its 2027 Medicare Advantage star ratingsFierce Healthcare, Oct 12
- Why Alignment Healthcare (ALHC) Stock Is Up TodayStockStory, Oct 12
- Alignment Health sues over 2027 star ratingsModern Healthcare, Oct 12
- Alignment Health Launches New Medicare Advantage PlanGlobeNewswire, Oct 12
- UBS cuts Alignment Healthcare stock price target on utilization woesInvesting.com, Oct 12
Alignment Healthcare peers
Alignment Healthcare’s 6 largest industry peers by market value, with today’s move, GekkoIndex zone and gap to Gekko Fair Value.
| Stock | GekkoIndex zone | vs Fair Value |
|---|---|---|
| UNHUnitedHealth | Accumulation | 1.4% above |
| ELVElevance Health | Neutral | 30.2% below |
| CICigna | Neutral | 36.3% below |
| HUMHumana | Distribution | 14.0% below |
| CNCCentene | Neutral | 20.3% below |
| MOHMolina Healthcare | Neutral | 37.5% below |
A peer links to its own page where one exists.
Alignment Healthcare stock FAQ
What is Alignment Healthcare’s market cap?
Alignment Healthcare’s market cap is $1.68B at the Oct 12, 2026 close of $8.09, with 207.4M shares outstanding. The shares trade on a P/E ratio of 45.8.
What is the Alignment Healthcare stock forecast?
The consensus analyst 12-month price target for Alignment Healthcare is $20.54, +153.9% from the last close. Of the 10 firms that rated the stock in the last 90 days, 6 rate it a buy, 4 a hold and 0 a sell. Gekko doesn’t publish price predictions of its own.
Is Alignment Healthcare stock overvalued or undervalued?
On Gekko’s estimate Alignment Healthcare is undervalued: the Oct 12, 2026 close of $8.09 is 43.8% below Gekko Fair Value of $14.39. Gekko Fair Value is recalculated every trading day, and a gap inside 5% either way counts as about fair value.
When does Alignment Healthcare report earnings next?
Alignment Healthcare is expected to report on Oct 29, 2026, after the market closes (17 days away). Analysts expect earnings of −$0.03 per share on revenue of $1.31B. Alignment Healthcare beat the earnings estimate in 7 of its last 8 reports, moving 11% on average across the report.
What is Alignment Healthcare’s 52-week high and low?
Alignment Healthcare’s 52-week high is $25.12 and its 52-week low is $6.01; it closed at $8.09 on Oct 12, 2026, −53.9% over the past year.
Is Alignment Healthcare stock a buy right now?
Gekko describes the data; it does not make buy or sell recommendations. On the swing-trade checklist, 3 of the 5 items with data read as supportive (gekkoindex, fair value and seasonality) and 2 as headwinds (trend and earnings risk). The checklist is a description of current data, not a recommendation.
How this page works
During US trading hours the price at the top of the page is a delayed quote, refreshed every 15 minutes; everything else is rebuilt after each US market close. The GekkoIndex, Gekko Fair Value and the checklist are Gekko’s own, and the Gekko Brief is written by AI from this page’s data and checked against it before it is published. How Gekko’s data works →
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