Insider buying last 90 days
No open-market insider purchases were filed for UGP in the last 90 days.
From Form 4 filings, dated to when each was filed.
Every UGP insider filing, plotted on the chart in Gekko.Open UGP in Gekko
Ultrapar Participacoes (UGP) Stock Analysis & Forecast
Sep 28 close
$7.13+0.03 (+0.4%)
Gekko Brief
AI summaryUltrapar this week drew attention after Goldman Sachs cut its price target from $6.50 to $5.80 while maintaining a Neutral rating, pointing to fuel market headwinds along with regulatory and operational concerns; the stock reportedly dipped 7.87% on the news, with one account citing a fall of 5.21%. Coverage also noted the shares touching a new 52-week high of $7.78 in midday trading, alongside separate pieces weighing UGP's value and growth characteristics, including a cited projected EPS growth of 187.9% for the current year. A CFO share sale was also filed during the period.
The stock closes at $7.13, up 0.4%, sitting above both its 50-day average of $6.76 and 200-day average of $5.50, with the 52-week range spanning $3.60 to $7.78. One-month return stands at 11.1%, three-month at 40.9%, and one-year at 79.6%. The GekkoIndex reads 58.1, placing it in the Neutral zone, up 14.2 over the past five readings. Gekko Fair Value is set at $7.71, putting the current price 7.5% below that level.
Ultrapar's next earnings date falls on 11 November 2026, 43 days out, beyond a typical 20-trading-day holding window. The prior report on 12 August showed EPS of $0.28 against a $0.27 estimate, with a 3.4% reaction, and the company has beaten estimates in 5 of its last 8 quarters. Seasonality over the next 20 trading days has averaged -0.4% across 5 years, rising in 2 of them. Analyst consensus stands at 2 buy and 1 hold ratings, with a consensus target of $7.57.
Written by AI and checked automatically against the figures on this page. Generated Sep 29, 2026 from the data above.
Ultrapar Participacoes price vs fair value
Close $7.13200-day averageGekko Fair Value $7.71
Ultrapar Participacoes quick facts
- Market cap
- $7.62B
- P/E ratio
- 11.9
- Forward P/E
- 9.2
- EPS, TTM
- $0.63
- Revenue, TTM
- $153.3B
- Profit margin
- 2.3%
- Dividend yield
- 4.90%
- Beta
- 0.26
- Volume
- 3.12M avg 3.48M
- 1-year return
- +79.6%
- Typical daily move
- ±3%
- Typical 20-day move
- ±7.7%
- 50-day average
- $6.76
- 200-day average
- $5.50
- Next earnings
- Nov 11
- Shares outstanding
- 1.07B
Ultrapar Participacoes swing-trade checklist
Ultrapar Participacoes scores 3 supportive, 1 mixed and 1 headwind across the 5 checklist items with data.
Six things swing traders check before a 20-day hold, read from the latest data.
3 supportive1 mixed1 headwind
- Trendsupportive
Above 50 and 200-day
Close $7.13 is above the 50-day ($6.76) and 200-day ($5.50) averages, and the 50-day is above the 200-day.
See the chart - GekkoIndexmixed
58.1, Neutral
Reading 58.1 is in the Neutral zone.
See the GekkoIndex - Fair valuesupportive
7.5% below
Price is 7.5% below Gekko Fair Value (more than 5% below).
See fair value - Smart moneyno data
No data
No insider, Congress or unusual options activity in the window.
See smart money - Earnings risksupportive
Reports in 43 days
Next report Nov 11, 2026, 43 days away — outside a typical 20-trading-day hold.
See earnings - Seasonalityheadwind
−0.4% on average
From this point in the calendar, the next 20 trading days averaged −0.4% over 5 years, rising in 2 of them.
See seasonality
A description of current data, not a recommendation. How this page works
Ultrapar Participacoes stock chart and price history
Ultrapar Participacoes closed at $7.13 on Sep 28, 2026, +79.6% over the past year, inside a 52-week range of $3.60 to $7.78.
Close50-day average200-day averageVolume
Use the left and right arrow keys to read daily values.
Performance Breakdown
- 1 month
- +11.1%
- 3 months
- +40.9%
- 6 months
- +32.8%
- 1 year
- +79.6%
The full UGP chart adds GekkoIndex, insider, options, Congress and hedge fund markers, plus TrendCandles™.Open UGP in Gekko
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About Ultrapar Participacoes
Ultrapar Participacoes runs businesses in liquefied petroleum gas distribution, fuel supply, and bulk liquid storage, with activity spanning Brazil, Mexico, Uruguay, Venezuela, other parts of Latin America, the United States, Canada, and reaching into the Far East and Europe. It is widely recognized for its Ipiranga fuel stations, along with AmPm convenience stores and Jet Oil service outlets that operate under franchise arrangements.
The company organizes its work into distinct segments. Gas distribution supplies LPG to homes, businesses, and industrial users, concentrated in Brazil's southern, southeastern, and northeastern areas. Fuel distribution covers gasoline, ethanol, diesel, fuel oil, kerosene, natural gas for vehicles, and lubricants, paired with convenience retail and automotive maintenance services. Storage operations center on liquid bulk terminals in the same southeastern and northeastern regions, run through its Ultracargo terminals and distribution centers. It also offers digital tools, including a payment app called Abastece Aí and a loyalty program known as Km de Vantagens.
Ultrapar traces its founding back to 1937 and operates its headquarters in São Paulo, Brazil. Its shares trade under the ticker UGP.
- Sector
- Retail trade
- Website
- ultra.com.br
Ultrapar Participacoes GekkoIndex: the smart money zone
Ultrapar Participacoes’s GekkoIndex — Gekko’s 0 to 100 smart money score — reads 58.1, in the Neutral zone, up 14.2 points over five sessions.
58.1Neutral
Up 14.2 points over five sessions, from the Distribution zone.
Reading for Sep 28, 2026
What followed past readings in each zone
| Zone | Readings | 5 days | 20 days | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Buying | 38 | −1.8% | −5.6% | ||
| Accumulation | 192 | +0.1% | +1.8% | ||
| Neutral (current zone) | 341 | +0.5% | +2.2% | ||
| Distribution | 53 | +2.0% | +2.6% | ||
| Selling | 1 | Too few readings yet | |||
Average UGP share-price change over the trading days after each daily reading in its GekkoIndex history. Across every stock Gekko tracks, Neutral readings averaged +1.1% over 20 days. Past behaviour doesn’t guarantee future results.
Neutral zone: No clear directional signal. About the five zones →
See every daily GekkoIndex reading plotted over the UGP price, zone by zone.Track UGP in Gekko
Is Ultrapar Participacoes stock overvalued? Gekko Fair Value
Ultrapar Participacoes trades 7.5% below Gekko Fair Value of $7.71, so the shares are undervalued on Gekko’s estimate.
Gekko’s own estimate of what Ultrapar Participacoes shares are worth, recalculated every trading day.
$7.71
Gekko Fair Value, Sep 26, 2026
7.5% Undervalued
Gekko Fair Value on every chart, with the gap to price updating daily.Open UGP in Gekko
Ultrapar Participacoes insider and Congress trading
No open-market insider purchases were filed for Ultrapar Participacoes, and no Congress trades were disclosed, in the last 90 days.
Plus buybacks, unusual options and fund positions, each dated to when it became public.
Congress trades last 90 days
No trades in UGP were disclosed by members of Congress in the last 90 days.
From congressional disclosures, which report amounts as ranges.
Congress disclosures for UGP, plotted on the chart in Gekko.Open UGP in Gekko
Ultrapar Participacoes earnings: next date and track record
Ultrapar Participacoes reports on Nov 11, 2026 (43 days away), and beat the EPS estimate in 5 of its last 8 reports.
Next earnings report
Nov 11, 2026
43 days away
- EPS estimate
- $0.25
- Revenue estimate
- $8.20B
5 of 8reports beat the EPS estimate
±3.9%average move across the report
5 of 8reports followed by a gain
Share-price move across each report
Last earnings call, Aug 12, 2026 AI summary
- What they said
- Ultrapar reported record net income of BRL 1.677 billion in Q2 2026, up 46% year-over-year, with recurring adjusted EBITDA of BRL 3.657 billion reflecting growth across all business units. Record operating cash flow reached BRL 4.789 billion, enabling leverage reduction to 0.9x, the lowest since 2008. The company approved BRL 1.85 billion in dividends (BRL 1/share, 3.8% yield) plus an 18 million share buyback program. Ultrapar was also added to the Dow Jones Best-in-class Emerging Markets Index.
- Guidance
- Management signaled continued capital discipline and growth execution across its portfolio. Ultracargo is approaching the conclusion of its expansion cycle, suggesting reduced CapEx ahead. No specific revenue or earnings targets were provided in this excerpt.
| Reported | EPS | Revenue | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 12, 2026 | $0.28 est $0.27 | $8.07B est $8.18B | +3.4% |
| Mar 4, 2026 | $0.06 est $0.07 | $7.17B est $6.77B | +2.9% |
| Nov 12, 2025 | $0.12 est $0.09 | $6.94B est $6.37B | −6.2% |
| Aug 13, 2025 | $0.17 est $0.06 | $6.27B est $6.38B | +2.2% |
| May 7, 2025 | $0.05 est $0.07 | $6.01B est $5.82B | −6.8% |
| Feb 26, 2025 | $0.13 est $0.09 | $6.24B est $5.81B | +1.7% |
| Nov 13, 2024 | $0.08 est $0.08 | $6.08B est $6.02B | −5.3% |
| Aug 7, 2024 | $0.07 est $0.02 | $5.79B est $1.12B | +2.3% |
“Move” is the close of the first session after the report compared with the close of the last session before it, so it reads the same whether the company reported before the open or after the close.
Ultrapar Participacoes stock forecast and analyst price targets
Analysts’ average 12-month price target for Ultrapar Participacoes is $7.57, +6.2% from the last close, from 3 firms rating the stock in the last 90 days.
$7.57consensus 12-month target, +6.2% from the last close
Now $7.13Avg $7.57
Low $5.80High $7.90
Each firm’s latest rating in the last 90 days: 3 firms.
Latest analyst actions
| Date | Firm | Target | vs price |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 4 | UBS | $7.90 | +10.8% |
| Aug 26 | Goldman Sachs | $5.80 | −18.7% |
| Aug 13 | Bank of America Securities | — | — |
| Jul 1 | Goldman Sachs | $6.50 | −8.8% |
| Jun 30 | Bank of America Securities | $6.80 | −4.6% |
+2.2%average 20-day move after past Neutral readings
−0.4%average move over the next 20 trading days in the last 5 years
±3%typical daily move, from the 14-day average range
Gekko doesn’t publish price predictions. These are analyst targets and historical base rates, which don’t guarantee future results.
Ultrapar Participacoes seasonality: the next 20 trading days
Over the next 20 trading days from Sep 29, Ultrapar Participacoes averaged −0.4% across the last 5 years, rising in 2 of them.
Next 20 trading days, by year
Average move and hit rate
| Window | Average | Years higher |
|---|---|---|
| Next 5 trading days | −0.6% | 1 of 5 |
| Next 10 trading days | +0.6% | 2 of 5 |
| Next 15 trading days | +1.9% | 2 of 5 |
| Next 20 trading days | −0.4% | 2 of 5 |
| Next 30 trading days | +4.1% | 3 of 5 |
For scale, UGP’s typical 20-trading-day move in either direction is about 7.7%.
Ultrapar Participacoes market cap and key statistics
Ultrapar Participacoes’s market cap is $7.62B, with a P/E ratio of 11.9 and revenue of $153.3B over the last twelve months.
Valuation
- Market cap
- $7.62B
- P/E ratio
- 11.9
- Forward P/E
- 9.2
- EPS, TTM
- $0.63
- Gekko Fair Value
- $7.71
Trading
- Volume
- 3.12M
- Avg volume, 20 days
- 3.48M
- 52-week high
- $7.78
- 52-week low
- $3.60
- Shares outstanding
- 1.07B
Financials
- Revenue, TTM
- $153.3B
- Profit margin
- 2.3%
- Return on equity
- 19.8%
- Quarterly earnings growth, YoY
- +44.3%
Risk and income
- Beta
- 0.26
- Typical daily move
- ±3%
- Typical 20-day move
- ±7.7%
- Dividend yield
- 4.90%
Ultrapar Participacoes stock news this week
Coverage of Ultrapar Participacoes this week reads neutral: 2 positive, 1 neutral and 2 negative headlines.
- UGP or ENB: Which Is the Better Value Stock Right Now?Zacks Investment Research, Sep 28
- 3 Reasons Why Growth Investors Shouldn't Overlook Ultrapar Participacoes (UGP)Yahoo Finance, Sep 28
- Should Value Investors Buy Ultrapar Participacoes (UGP) Stock?Zacks Investment Research, Sep 28
- UGP Dips As Goldman Sachs Slashes Price Target OutlookTimothy Sykes, Sep 25
- UGP Falls As Goldman Sachs Slashes Price Target OutlookTimothy Sykes, Sep 25
- What Makes Ultrapar (NYSE:UGP) Stand Out in NYSE Composite?Kalkine Media, Sep 25
Ultrapar Participacoes stock FAQ
What is Ultrapar Participacoes’s market cap?
Ultrapar Participacoes’s market cap is $7.62B at the Sep 28, 2026 close of $7.13, with 1.07B shares outstanding. The shares trade on a P/E ratio of 11.9.
What is the Ultrapar Participacoes stock forecast?
The consensus analyst 12-month price target for Ultrapar Participacoes is $7.57, +6.2% from the last close. Of the 3 firms that rated the stock in the last 90 days, 2 rate it a buy, 1 a hold and 0 a sell. Gekko doesn’t publish price predictions of its own.
Is Ultrapar Participacoes stock overvalued or undervalued?
On Gekko’s estimate Ultrapar Participacoes is undervalued: the Sep 28, 2026 close of $7.13 is 7.5% below Gekko Fair Value of $7.71. Gekko Fair Value is recalculated every trading day, and a gap inside 5% either way counts as about fair value.
When does Ultrapar Participacoes report earnings next?
Ultrapar Participacoes is expected to report on Nov 11, 2026 (43 days away). Analysts expect earnings of $0.25 per share on revenue of $8.20B. Ultrapar Participacoes beat the earnings estimate in 5 of its last 8 reports, moving 3.9% on average across the report.
What is Ultrapar Participacoes’s 52-week high and low?
Ultrapar Participacoes’s 52-week high is $7.78 and its 52-week low is $3.60; it closed at $7.13 on Sep 28, 2026, +79.6% over the past year.
Is Ultrapar Participacoes stock a buy right now?
Gekko describes the data; it does not make buy or sell recommendations. On the swing-trade checklist, 3 of the 5 items with data read as supportive (trend, fair value and earnings risk), 1 as mixed (gekkoindex) and 1 as a headwind (seasonality). The checklist is a description of current data, not a recommendation.
How this page works
During US trading hours the price at the top of the page is a delayed quote, refreshed every 15 minutes; everything else is rebuilt after each US market close. The GekkoIndex, Gekko Fair Value and the checklist are Gekko’s own, and the Gekko Brief is written by AI from this page’s data and checked against it before it is published. How Gekko’s data works →
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