TAL Education (TAL) Stock Analysis & Forecast

Sep 28 close

$11.89−0.11 (−0.9%)

Gekko Brief

AI summary

This week's coverage of TAL Education mixed comparative pieces with a look back at recent results. Articles set TAL against Nintendo and against Lincoln Educational Services (LINC) on valuation and business quality, while a quant-focused piece described a neutral sentiment reading with a mid-channel oscillation pattern. Another item recapped TAL's Q4 2026 report, noting revenue of USD 802.4 million and non-GAAP EPADS of USD 0.45, which beat consensus by USD 0.29, alongside a same-day share decline of 2.01% to USD 11.70.

TAL closed at $11.89, down 0.9% on the day, with the stock above both its 50-day average of $11.68 and its 200-day average of $11.05. The GekkoIndex reads 56.6, placing the stock in the Neutral zone. Price sits 11.4% below Gekko Fair Value of $13.42. Trailing returns show a 25.4% three-month gain and a 6.3% one-year gain, with the stock trading between its 52-week low of $8.88 and high of $13.37.

The next earnings date falls on 29 October 2026, 30 days away and outside a typical 20-trading-day holding window; the prior report on 30 July 2026 showed EPS of $0.73 against an estimate of $0.14, with a 14.8% reaction. No insider, Congress or unusual options activity appears in the current window. Seasonality over five years shows the next 20 trading days averaging -1%, positive in 3 of those years. One analyst holds a hold rating with a consensus target of $16.10.

Written by AI and checked automatically against the figures on this page. Generated Sep 29, 2026 from the data above.

TAL Education price vs fair value

$13.42$11.89Sep ’25Mar ’26Sep ’26
Close $11.89200-day averageGekko Fair Value $13.42

TAL Education quick facts

Market cap
$7.24B
P/E ratio
7.5
Forward P/E
9.5
EPS, TTM
$1.63
Revenue, TTM
$3.19B
Profit margin
28.4%
Dividend yield
—
Beta
0.14
Volume
1.65M avg 3.64M
1-year return
+6.3%
Typical daily move
±2.7%
Typical 20-day move
±9.7%
50-day average
$11.68
200-day average
$11.05
Next earnings
Oct 29 before open
Shares outstanding
407.2M
52-week range
$8.88$13.37

TAL Education swing-trade checklist

TAL Education scores 3 supportive, 2 mixed and 0 headwinds across the 5 checklist items with data.

Six things swing traders check before a 20-day hold, read from the latest data.

3 supportive2 mixed0 headwinds

  • Trendsupportive

    Above 50 and 200-day

    Close $11.89 is above the 50-day ($11.68) and 200-day ($11.05) averages, and the 50-day is above the 200-day.

    See the chart
  • GekkoIndexmixed

    56.6, Neutral

    Reading 56.6 is in the Neutral zone.

    See the GekkoIndex
  • Fair valuesupportive

    11.4% below

    Price is 11.4% below Gekko Fair Value (more than 5% below).

    See fair value
  • Smart moneyno data

    No data

    No insider, Congress or unusual options activity in the window.

    See smart money
  • Earnings risksupportive

    Reports in 30 days

    Next report Oct 29, 2026, 30 days away — outside a typical 20-trading-day hold.

    See earnings
  • Seasonalitymixed

    −1.0% on average

    From this point in the calendar, the next 20 trading days averaged −1% over 5 years, rising in 3 of them.

    See seasonality

A description of current data, not a recommendation. How this page works

TAL Education stock chart and price history

TAL Education closed at $11.89 on Sep 28, 2026, +6.3% over the past year, inside a 52-week range of $8.88 to $13.37.

Close50-day average200-day averageVolume
TAL Education share price, past year, with 50-day and 200-day moving averages and volume$9$10$11$13NovDecJan 2026FebMarAprMayJunJulAugSep11.89

Use the left and right arrow keys to read daily values.

Performance Breakdown

1 month
+1.5%
3 months
+25.4%
6 months
+9.9%
1 year
+6.3%
The full TAL chart adds GekkoIndex, insider, options, Congress and hedge fund markers, plus TrendCandles™.Open TAL in Gekko

Follow TAL Education through every session

Put TAL on a Gekko watchlist and see its GekkoIndex, Gekko Fair Value and smart money signals update on the chart as they change.

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About TAL Education

TAL Education focuses on giving school-age children, from the earliest grades through high school, extra help outside their regular classes. Subjects taught span math, sciences like physics, chemistry and biology, along with history, geography, politics, and both English and Chinese language study. Most of this teaching happens in small groups, and the company has built recognition through the many brand names under which it operates.

Its teaching brands include Xueersi, Xueersi Online School, First Leap, Tipaipai, Xiaohou AI, Xiaohoucode, Aiqidao, Mamabang, Kaoyanbang, and Shunshunliuxue, while more customized instruction is available through the Izhikang label. The company also operates jzb.com as a platform for online learning. Beyond teaching, it engages in investment management and consulting work, builds and sells software and network-based tools with accompanying consulting support, and distributes educational materials and products.

TAL Education traces back to 2003 and keeps its headquarters in Beijing, China. Its stock trades under the ticker TAL.

Sector
Commercial services
Website
tal.com

TAL Education GekkoIndex: the smart money zone

TAL Education’s GekkoIndex — Gekko’s 0 to 100 smart money score — reads 56.6, in the Neutral zone, down 0.4 points over five sessions.

010056.6Neutral

Down 0.4 points over five sessions.

Reading for Sep 28, 2026

What followed past readings in each zone

ZoneReadings5 days10 days20 days50 days
Buying36+0.6%+2.2%+10.0%+16.0%
Accumulation227+1.0%+2.6%+3.4%+7.5%
Neutral (current zone)3290.0%−0.7%−1.2%−3.3%
Distribution31−1.7%−2.4%−2.6%−21.9%
Selling2Too few readings yet

Average TAL share-price change over the trading days after each daily reading in its GekkoIndex history. Across every stock Gekko tracks, Neutral readings averaged +1.1% over 20 days. Past behaviour doesn’t guarantee future results.

Neutral zone: No clear directional signal. About the five zones →

See every daily GekkoIndex reading plotted over the TAL price, zone by zone.Track TAL in Gekko

Is TAL Education stock overvalued? Gekko Fair Value

TAL Education trades 11.4% below Gekko Fair Value of $13.42, so the shares are undervalued on Gekko’s estimate.

Gekko’s own estimate of what TAL Education shares are worth, recalculated every trading day.

$13.42

Gekko Fair Value, Sep 26, 2026

11.4% Undervalued

How Gekko Fair Value works →

Gekko Fair Value on every chart, with the gap to price updating daily.Open TAL in Gekko

TAL Education insider and Congress trading

No open-market insider purchases were filed for TAL Education, and no Congress trades were disclosed, in the last 90 days.

Plus buybacks, unusual options and fund positions, each dated to when it became public.

Insider buying last 90 days

No open-market insider purchases were filed for TAL in the last 90 days.

From Form 4 filings, dated to when each was filed.

Every TAL insider filing, plotted on the chart in Gekko.Open TAL in Gekko

Congress trades last 90 days

No trades in TAL were disclosed by members of Congress in the last 90 days.

From congressional disclosures, which report amounts as ranges.

Congress disclosures for TAL, plotted on the chart in Gekko.Open TAL in Gekko

Buybacks

TAL Education has been buying back its own shares.

Bought back, quarter ended Feb 28, 2026
$646.5M
As a share of market cap
8.94%

From company filings.

Hedge funds and billionaires quarter ended Dec 31

0of the funds Gekko tracks hold TAL.

0added0opened0trimmed2sold out
Which funds are on each side, name by name.Unlock in Gekko

TAL Education earnings: next date and track record

TAL Education reports on Oct 29, 2026, before the open (30 days away), and beat the EPS estimate in 6 of its last 8 reports.

6 of 8reports beat the EPS estimate
±12.4%average move across the report
6 of 8reports followed by a gain

Share-price move across each report

+7.5%Oct ’24+28.0%Jan ’25−16.6%Apr ’25+5.5%Jul ’25+1.9%Oct ’25+18.0%Jan ’26−6.6%Apr ’26+14.8%Jul ’26

Last earnings call, Jul 30, 2026 AI summary

What they said
TAL Education reported Q1 FY2027 net revenues of $758M (RMB 5.191B), up 32% YoY in USD terms. Non-GAAP operating income surged 492% YoY to $149M, with non-GAAP operating margin expanding dramatically to 19.6% from 4.4%. Non-GAAP net income reached $420M. The company operates 600+ learning centers across 44 cities, with weekly active learning devices exceeding 2 million units at ~80% weekly active rate.
Guidance
Management emphasized continued focus on high-quality growth, disciplined expansion, and efficiency improvement. The company is expanding its learning center network and launched the new T6 tablet series in July, signaling continued investment in both offline and device segments.
ReportedEPSSurpriseRevenueSurpriseMove
Jul 30, 2026$0.73
est $0.14
+421.4%$758.4M
est $719.4M
+5.4%+14.8%
Apr 23, 2026$0.45
est $0.16
+181.3%$802.4M
est $784.9M
+2.2%−6.6%
Jan 29, 2026$0.25
est $0.08
+212.5%$770.2M
est $772.5M
−0.3%+18.0%
Oct 30, 2025$0.24
est $0.16
+50.0%$861.4M
est $828.7M
+3.9%+1.9%
Jul 31, 2025$0.07
est $0.07
−4.5%$576.5M
est $786.0M
−26.7%+5.5%
Apr 24, 2025$0.01
est $0.09
−88.9%——−16.6%
Jan 23, 2025$0.06
est $0.04
+50.0%$606.4M
est $598.0M
+1.4%+28.0%
Oct 24, 2024$0.12
est $0.09
+33.3%$619.4M
est $604.4M
+2.5%+7.5%

“Move” is the close of the first session after the report compared with the close of the last session before it, so it reads the same whether the company reported before the open or after the close.

TAL Education stock forecast and analyst price targets

Analysts’ average 12-month price target for TAL Education is $16.10, +35.4% from the last close, from 1 firm rating the stock in the last 90 days.

$16.10consensus 12-month target, +35.4% from the last close
Buy0
Hold1
Sell0

Each firm’s latest rating in the last 90 days: 1 firm.

Latest analyst actions

DateFirmRatingTargetvs price
Jul 31JefferiesHold, initiated$13.60+14.4%
−1.2%average 20-day move after past Neutral readings
−1.0%average move over the next 20 trading days in the last 5 years
±2.7%typical daily move, from the 14-day average range

Gekko doesn’t publish price predictions. These are analyst targets and historical base rates, which don’t guarantee future results.

TAL Education seasonality: the next 20 trading days

Over the next 20 trading days from Sep 29, TAL Education averaged −1.0% across the last 5 years, rising in 3 of them.

Next 20 trading days, by year

−2.7%2021−16.6%2022+1.4%2023−7.1%2024+11.3%2025

Average move and hit rate

WindowAverageYears higher
Next 5 trading days+3.8%3 of 5
Next 10 trading days−2.2%2 of 5
Next 15 trading days−0.5%3 of 5
Next 20 trading days−1.0%3 of 5
Next 30 trading days+1.2%4 of 5

For scale, TAL’s typical 20-trading-day move in either direction is about 9.7%.

TAL Education market cap and key statistics

TAL Education’s market cap is $7.24B, with a P/E ratio of 7.5 and revenue of $3.19B over the last twelve months.

Valuation

Market cap
$7.24B
P/E ratio
7.5
Forward P/E
9.5
EPS, TTM
$1.63
Gekko Fair Value
$13.42

Trading

Volume
1.65M
Avg volume, 20 days
3.64M
52-week high
$13.37
52-week low
$8.88
Shares outstanding
407.2M

Financials

Revenue, TTM
$3.19B
Profit margin
28.4%
Return on equity
23.7%
Quarterly earnings growth, YoY
+1,360.0%

Risk and income

Beta
0.14
Typical daily move
±2.7%
Typical 20-day move
±9.7%

TAL Education stock news this week

4 headlines about TAL Education from the past week, newest first, each linking to the publisher.

More stocks

In the Buying zone today

Reporting earnings this week

Popular on Gekko

TAL Education stock FAQ

What is TAL Education’s market cap?

TAL Education’s market cap is $7.24B at the Sep 28, 2026 close of $11.89, with 407.2M shares outstanding. The shares trade on a P/E ratio of 7.5.

What is the TAL Education stock forecast?

The consensus analyst 12-month price target for TAL Education is $16.10, +35.4% from the last close. Of the 1 firm that rated the stock in the last 90 days, 0 rate it a buy, 1 a hold and 0 a sell. Gekko doesn’t publish price predictions of its own.

Is TAL Education stock overvalued or undervalued?

On Gekko’s estimate TAL Education is undervalued: the Sep 28, 2026 close of $11.89 is 11.4% below Gekko Fair Value of $13.42. Gekko Fair Value is recalculated every trading day, and a gap inside 5% either way counts as about fair value.

When does TAL Education report earnings next?

TAL Education is expected to report on Oct 29, 2026, before the market opens (30 days away). Analysts expect earnings of $0.18 per share on revenue of $1.09B. TAL Education beat the earnings estimate in 6 of its last 8 reports, moving 12.4% on average across the report.

What is TAL Education’s 52-week high and low?

TAL Education’s 52-week high is $13.37 and its 52-week low is $8.88; it closed at $11.89 on Sep 28, 2026, +6.3% over the past year. Over the last five years the shares peaked at $15.52 on Feb 15, 2024.

Is TAL Education stock a buy right now?

Gekko describes the data; it does not make buy or sell recommendations. On the swing-trade checklist, 3 of the 5 items with data read as supportive (trend, fair value and earnings risk), 2 as mixed (gekkoindex and seasonality). The checklist is a description of current data, not a recommendation.

How this page works

During US trading hours the price at the top of the page is a delayed quote, refreshed every 15 minutes; everything else is rebuilt after each US market close. The GekkoIndex, Gekko Fair Value and the checklist are Gekko’s own, and the Gekko Brief is written by AI from this page’s data and checked against it before it is published. How Gekko’s data works →

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