Simon Property (SPG) Stock Analysis & Forecast

Nov 4 close

$228.50+6.42 (+2.9%)

Gekko Brief

AI summaryNov 4 close

Simon Property heads into its Q3 2026 earnings report, due 5 November, with attention on whether strong leasing activity, FFO growth and rising rents can offset increasing debt costs. Analysts project FFO of $3.31 per share and revenue of $1.66 billion for the quarter, with separate estimates citing $3.32 per share and $1.73 billion in revenue for the period ahead. Coverage also notes the stock's recent momentum heading into the print, alongside routine seasonal-return charts tracking the shares across several listings.

Shares closed at $228.50, up 2.9%, sitting above both the 50-day average of $207.51 and the 200-day average of $206.50, with the 50-day above the 200-day. The GekkoIndex reads 42.3, placing SPG in the Distribution zone, down 11 points over the last five readings. The price sits 2.3% above Gekko Fair Value of $223.37.

Earnings arrive after the close on 5 November, zero days away, placing the report inside the next 20-trading-day stretch; the prior quarter saw an EPS beat of $3.29 versus $3.18 estimated, with a -1.5% reaction, and SPG has beaten in 5 of the last 8 quarters with an average absolute move of 2.5%. Over the last 90 days, insiders made 3 open-market purchases totaling $242,727, and one billionaire holder is recorded. Seasonally, the next 20 trading days have averaged a 1.5% return over 5 years, positive in 3 of them. Analyst consensus across 15 firms shows 3 buy and 12 hold ratings, with a consensus target of $228.89.

Written by AI from the Nov 4, 2026 close and checked automatically against the figures on this page.

Simon Property price vs fair value

$228.50$223.37Nov ’25May ’26Nov ’26
Close $228.50200-day averageGekko Fair Value $223.37

Simon Property quick facts

Market cap
$73.93B
P/E ratio
15.4
Forward P/E
32.7
EPS, TTM
$14.43
Revenue, TTM
$6.94B
Profit margin
66.6%
Dividend yield
4.04%
Beta
1.31
Volume
1.73M avg 1.33M
1-year return
+29.3%
Typical daily move
±1.7%
Typical 20-day move
±5.1%
50-day average
$207.51
200-day average
$206.50
Next earnings
Nov 5 after close
Shares outstanding
323.6M
52-week range
$177.88$238.50

Simon Property swing-trade checklist

Simon Property scores 3 supportive, 1 mixed and 2 headwinds across the 6 checklist items with data.

Six things swing traders check before a 20-day hold, read from the latest data.

3 supportive1 mixed2 headwinds

  • Trendsupportive

    Above 50 and 200-day

    Close $228.50 is above the 50-day ($207.51) and 200-day ($206.50) averages, and the 50-day is above the 200-day.

    See the chart
  • GekkoIndexheadwind

    42.3, Distribution

    Reading 42.3 is in the Distribution zone.

    See the GekkoIndex
  • Fair valuemixed

    2.3% above

    Price is within 5% of Gekko Fair Value (2.3% above).

    See fair value
  • Smart moneysupportive

    Leans bullish

    Last 90 days: 3 open-market insider purchases.

    See smart money
  • Earnings riskheadwind

    Reports today

    Reports on Nov 5, 2026, today — inside a typical 20-trading-day hold.

    See earnings
  • Seasonalitysupportive

    +1.5% on average

    From this point in the calendar, the next 20 trading days averaged +1.5% over 5 years, rising in 3 of them.

    See seasonality

A description of current data, not a recommendation. How this page works

Simon Property stock chart and price history

Simon Property closed at $228.50 on Nov 4, 2026, +29.3% over the past year, inside a 52-week range of $177.88 to $238.50.

Close50-day average200-day averageVolume
Simon Property share price, past year, with 50-day and 200-day moving averages and volume$180$200$220$240DecJan 2026FebMarAprMayJunJulAugSepOct228.50

Use the left and right arrow keys to read daily values.

Performance Breakdown

1 month
+13.3%
3 months
+3.0%
6 months
+11.2%
1 year
+29.3%
The full SPG chart adds GekkoIndex, insider, options, Congress and hedge fund markers, plus TrendCandles™.Open SPG in Gekko

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About Simon Property

Simon Property owns and develops a collection of properties built around shopping, dining, entertainment, and mixed-use spaces. These destinations bring together retail, food, and leisure offerings under one roof, and they draw large numbers of visitors on a daily basis. The company is recognized as part of the S&P 100, a grouping of sizeable publicly traded firms.

As a real estate investment trust, Simon Property earns its income by owning and developing these properties rather than through manufacturing or direct retail sales itself. Its portfolio serves as a gathering point for the communities around each location, and the scale of visitor activity across its properties contributes billions of dollars in revenue each year. The company's holdings are not limited to one region, spanning locations across North America, Europe, and Asia, which brings it into contact with a wide range of shoppers, diners, and visitors in different markets.

Simon Property's shares are listed on the NYSE under the ticker SPG.

Sector
Finance
Website
simon.com

Simon Property GekkoIndex: the smart money zone

Simon Property’s GekkoIndex — Gekko’s 0 to 100 smart money score — reads 42.3, in the Distribution zone, down 11 points over five sessions.

010042.3Distribution

Down 11 points over five sessions, from the Neutral zone.

Reading for Nov 4, 2026

What followed past readings in each zone

ZoneReadings5 days10 days20 days50 days
Buying20+0.9%+1.7%−0.3%+5.0%
Accumulation160+0.1%+0.4%+1.7%+4.0%
Neutral449+0.4%+0.7%+1.3%+3.2%
Distribution (current zone)21−0.3%−0.5%−2.9%−3.3%
Selling0Not available

Average SPG share-price change over the trading days after each daily reading in its GekkoIndex history. Across every stock Gekko tracks, Distribution readings averaged +1.2% over 20 days. Past behaviour doesn’t guarantee future results.

Distribution zone: Institutions potentially offloading. About the five zones →

See every daily GekkoIndex reading plotted over the SPG price, zone by zone.Track SPG in Gekko

Is Simon Property stock overvalued? Gekko Fair Value

Simon Property trades 2.3% above Gekko Fair Value of $223.37, so the shares are about fair value on Gekko’s estimate.

Gekko’s own estimate of what Simon Property shares are worth, recalculated every trading day.

$223.37

Gekko Fair Value, Nov 4, 2026

2.3% above fair value · About fair value

At the end of Aug 2026 the price was 10.6% below the estimate.

Gekko Fair ValueShare price, month end
$223$222Aug 2026SepOctNov 2026

How Gekko Fair Value works →

Gekko Fair Value on every chart, with the gap to price updating daily.Open SPG in Gekko

Simon Property insider and Congress trading

Insiders filed 3 open-market purchases in Simon Property worth $243K, and no Congress trades were disclosed, in the last 90 days.

Plus buybacks, unusual options and fund positions, each dated to when it became public.

Insider buying last 90 days

$243Kin 3 open-market purchases

FiledInsiderTypeSharesValue
Oct 1Smith Daniel C.
director
Purchase350$71K
Oct 1LEIBOWITZ REUBEN S
director
Purchase480$97K
Oct 1GLASSCOCK LARRY C
director
Purchase367$74K

From Form 4 filings, dated to when each was filed.

Congress trades last 90 days

No trades in SPG were disclosed by members of Congress in the last 90 days.

From congressional disclosures, which report amounts as ranges.

Congress disclosures for SPG, plotted on the chart in Gekko.Open SPG in Gekko

Buybacks

Simon Property has been buying back its own shares.

Bought back, quarter ended Jun 30, 2026
$220.3M
As a share of market cap
0.30%
Trailing four quarters
$630.4M

From company filings.

Hedge funds and billionaires quarter ended Jun 30

1of the funds Gekko tracks holds SPG.

0added0opened1trimmed0sold out
Which funds are on each side, name by name.Unlock in Gekko

Simon Property earnings: next date and track record

Simon Property reports on Nov 5, 2026, after the close (today), and beat the EPS estimate in 5 of its last 8 reports.

5 of 8reports beat the EPS estimate
±2.5%average move across the report
5 of 8reports followed by a gain

Share-price move across each report

+1.8%Nov ’24+3.3%Feb ’25−1.4%May ’25+5.4%Aug ’25+3.9%Nov ’25−1.0%Feb ’26+1.8%May ’26−1.5%Aug ’26

Last earnings call, Aug 10, 2026 AI summary

What they said
Simon Property Group reported strong second-quarter 2026 results with accelerated domestic property NOI growth of 8.5% and real estate FFO growth of 7.9%. Shopper traffic and retailer sales increased meaningfully (malls and Premium Outlets sales $838/sq ft, up 13.9%; total sales volume +7.6% in the quarter), and leasing demand remained robust (over 1,200 leases, 4.8 million sq ft, new deals up >20%). Occupancy remained high (96% for malls/outlets, 98.8% for the Mills) despite absorption of roughly 1 million sq ft of bankruptcy-returned space (primarily Saks Off Fifth). Management highlighted strong pipeline activity, reinvestment and development ($1B in ground, $600M+ expected approvals), continued focus on capital allocation (dividend increase to $2.25/share, ~$793k shares repurchased in Q2), and strategic initiatives including Simon Media Network and Simon Brand Ventures. The company acknowledged headwinds from higher interest expense and maturities, but emphasized balance-sheet flexibility and multiple avenues for growth (retenanting, development, media/advertising, international and TRG acquisition execution).
Guidance
Declared Q3 dividend of $2.25 per share (up $0.10 or 4.7% YoY). Management reiterated prior guidance that interest expense will be a headwind for the year (initial guidance $0.25 to $0.30 of negative impact; about $0.10 realized to date with ~$0.20 remaining under current market rates). Management stated their full-year guidance assumes some moderation in sales growth (conservative posture) and that if current strong sales trends continue, they would expect to be above the guidance range. No new numeric revenue/FFO guidance was provided on the call beyond dividend and interest expense commentary.
Risks flagged
Risks discussed include higher interest rates and interest expense headwinds, upcoming debt maturities (notably ~$4.5B unsecured due in 2H '27), macro/political uncertainty (e.g., elections), potential sales slowdown (sales-based/overage rent sensitivity), tenant credit and bankruptcy risk (Saks Off Fifth example), variability in international/inbound tourism (affecting outlet performance), restaurant category softness, and reliance on execution of development and leasing pipelines.
ReportedEPSSurpriseRevenueSurpriseMove
Aug 10, 2026$3.29
est $3.18
+3.5%$1.66B
est $1.61B
+3.0%−1.5%
May 11, 2026$1.22
est $1.49
−18.1%$1.76B
est $1.54B
+13.9%+1.8%
Feb 2, 2026$3.49
est $3.47
+0.6%$1.79B
est $1.49B
+20.0%−1.0%
Nov 3, 2025$3.22
est $3.09
+4.2%$1.60B
est $1.50B
+6.5%+3.9%
Aug 4, 2025$3.05
est $3.04
+0.3%$1.50B
est $1.42B
+5.2%+5.4%
May 12, 2025$2.95
est $2.91
+1.4%$1.47B
est $1.34B
+9.6%−1.4%
Feb 4, 2025$1.79
est $1.85
−3.2%$1.58B
est $1.33B
+19.2%+3.3%
Nov 1, 2024$1.46
est $1.53
−4.6%$1.48B
est $1.33B
+11.7%+1.8%

“Move” is the close of the first session after the report compared with the close of the last session before it, so it reads the same whether the company reported before the open or after the close.

Simon Property stock forecast and analyst price targets

Analysts’ average 12-month price target for Simon Property is $228.89, +0.2% from the last close, from 15 firms rating the stock in the last 90 days.

$228.89consensus 12-month target, +0.2% from the last close
Low $205High $275
Buy3
Hold12
Sell0

Each firm’s latest rating in the last 90 days: 15 firms.

Latest analyst actions

DateFirmRatingTargetvs price
Oct 12Piper SandlerBuy, maintained$254+11.2%
Oct 9Exane BNP ParibasHold, initiated$222−2.8%
Oct 9UBSHold, maintained$205−10.3%
Oct 9Exane BNP ParibasHold, initiated$222−2.8%
Oct 9UBSHold, reiterated$205−10.3%
−2.9%average 20-day move after past Distribution readings
+1.5%average move over the next 20 trading days in the last 5 years
±1.7%typical daily move, from the 14-day average range

Gekko doesn’t publish price predictions. These are analyst targets and historical base rates, which don’t guarantee future results.

Simon Property seasonality: the next 20 trading days

Over the next 20 trading days from Nov 4, Simon Property averaged +1.5% across the last 5 years, rising in 3 of them.

Next 20 trading days, by year

−10.0%2021+1.8%2022+11.7%2023+4.9%2024−0.2%2025

Average move and hit rate

WindowAverageYears higher
Next 5 trading days+1.7%3 of 5
Next 10 trading days+2.4%4 of 5
Next 15 trading days+1.3%4 of 5
Next 20 trading days+1.5%3 of 5
Next 30 trading days+3.7%4 of 5

For scale, SPG’s typical 20-trading-day move in either direction is about 5.1%.

Simon Property market cap and key statistics

Simon Property’s market cap is $73.93B, with a P/E ratio of 15.4 and revenue of $6.94B over the last twelve months.

Valuation

Market cap
$73.93B
P/E ratio
15.4
Forward P/E
32.7
EPS, TTM
$14.43
Gekko Fair Value
$223.37

Trading

Volume
1.73M
Avg volume, 20 days
1.33M
52-week high
$238.50
52-week low
$177.88
Shares outstanding
323.6M

Financials

Revenue, TTM
$6.94B
Profit margin
66.6%
Return on equity
120.5%
Quarterly earnings growth, YoY
−12.5%

Risk and income

Beta
1.31
Typical daily move
±1.7%
Typical 20-day move
±5.1%
Dividend yield
4.04%

Simon Property stock news this week

Coverage of Simon Property this week reads positive: 11 positive, 9 neutral and 0 negative headlines.

News sentiment positive

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Simon Property stock FAQ

What is Simon Property’s market cap?

Simon Property’s market cap is $73.93B at the Nov 4, 2026 close of $228.50, with 323.6M shares outstanding. The shares trade on a P/E ratio of 15.4.

What is the Simon Property stock forecast?

The consensus analyst 12-month price target for Simon Property is $228.89, +0.2% from the last close. Of the 15 firms that rated the stock in the last 90 days, 3 rate it a buy, 12 a hold and 0 a sell. Gekko doesn’t publish price predictions of its own.

Is Simon Property stock overvalued or undervalued?

On Gekko’s estimate Simon Property is about fair value: the Nov 4, 2026 close of $228.50 is 2.3% above Gekko Fair Value of $223.37. Gekko Fair Value is recalculated every trading day, and a gap inside 5% either way counts as about fair value.

When does Simon Property report earnings next?

Simon Property is expected to report on Nov 5, 2026, after the market closes (today). Analysts expect earnings of $1.69 per share on revenue of $1.63B. Simon Property beat the earnings estimate in 5 of its last 8 reports, moving 2.5% on average across the report.

What is Simon Property’s 52-week high and low?

Simon Property’s 52-week high is $238.50 and its 52-week low is $177.88; it closed at $228.50 on Nov 4, 2026, +29.3% over the past year.

Is Simon Property stock a buy right now?

Gekko describes the data; it does not make buy or sell recommendations. On the swing-trade checklist, 3 of the 6 items with data read as supportive (trend, smart money and seasonality), 1 as mixed (fair value) and 2 as headwinds (gekkoindex and earnings risk). The checklist is a description of current data, not a recommendation.

How this page works

During US trading hours the price at the top of the page is a delayed quote, refreshed every 15 minutes; everything else is rebuilt after each US market close. The GekkoIndex, Gekko Fair Value and the checklist are Gekko’s own, and the Gekko Brief is written by AI from this page’s data and checked against it before it is published. How Gekko’s data works →

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