NASDAQ: PCVX

Vaxcyte (PCVX) Stock Analysis & Forecast

Sep 28 close

$58.27+2.06 (+3.7%)

Gekko Brief

AI summary

BofA Securities adjusted its price target on Vaxcyte to $130 from $133 on 28 September, while maintaining a Buy rating, part of a broader analyst picture where 5 firms carry a consensus target of $109 and a consensus upside of 87.1%. The move concerns valuation and outlook for the pneumococcal conjugate vaccine franchise rather than any new clinical or regulatory development this week.

PCVX closed at $58.27, up 3.7%, sitting between its 50-day average of $58.52 and 200-day average of $54.89, a mixed trend picture. The GekkoIndex reads 60.5, placing the stock in the Accumulation zone. Shares trade 24.5% below the Gekko Fair Value estimate of $77.21, with a 52-week range of $31.89 to $65.00 and a one-year return of 81.3%.

The next earnings report is set for 3 November, 35 days out and beyond a typical 20-trading-day hold; the prior report on 2 March showed an EPS of -1.80 against a -1.47 estimate, with a -3.1% reaction. Over the last 90 days, Congress recorded 2 buys and 0 sells. Seasonality data show the next 20 trading days averaging +14.5% over 5 years, though gains occurred in only 2 of those years. Daily moves have typically run 3.8%, with a typical 20-day swing of 8.7%, worth noting given the gap to Gekko Fair Value.

Written by AI and checked automatically against the figures on this page. Generated Sep 29, 2026 from the data above.

Vaxcyte price vs fair value

▲$77.21$58.27Sep ’25Mar ’26Sep ’26
Close $58.27200-day averageGekko Fair Value $77.21

Vaxcyte quick facts

Market cap
$8.41B
P/E ratio
—
Forward P/E
—
EPS, TTM
−$7.69
Revenue, TTM
$0
Profit margin
0%
Dividend yield
—
Beta
1.22
Volume
1.85M avg 1.40M
1-year return
+81.3%
Typical daily move
±3.8%
Typical 20-day move
±8.7%
50-day average
$58.52
200-day average
$54.89
Next earnings
Nov 3
Shares outstanding
148.8M
52-week range
$31.89$65.00

Vaxcyte swing-trade checklist

Vaxcyte scores 4 supportive, 2 mixed and 0 headwinds across the 6 checklist items with data.

Six things swing traders check before a 20-day hold, read from the latest data.

4 supportive2 mixed0 headwinds

  • Trendmixed

    Averages disagree

    Close $58.27 sits between the 50-day ($58.52) and 200-day ($54.89) averages, or the averages disagree.

    See the chart
  • GekkoIndexsupportive

    60.5, Accumulation

    Reading 60.5 is in the Accumulation zone.

    See the GekkoIndex
  • Fair valuesupportive

    24.5% below

    Price is 24.5% below Gekko Fair Value (more than 5% below).

    See fair value
  • Smart moneysupportive

    Leans bullish

    Last 90 days: Congress 2 buys / 0 sales.

    See smart money
  • Earnings risksupportive

    Reports in 35 days

    Next report Nov 3, 2026, 35 days away — outside a typical 20-trading-day hold.

    See earnings
  • Seasonalitymixed

    +14.5% on average

    From this point in the calendar, the next 20 trading days averaged +14.5% over 5 years, rising in 2 of them.

    See seasonality

A description of current data, not a recommendation. How this page works

Vaxcyte stock chart and price history

Vaxcyte closed at $58.27 on Sep 28, 2026, +81.3% over the past year, inside a 52-week range of $31.89 to $65.00.

Close50-day average200-day averageVolume
Vaxcyte share price, past year, with 50-day and 200-day moving averages and volume$40$50NovDecJan 2026FebMarAprMayJunJulAugSep58.27

Use the left and right arrow keys to read daily values.

Performance Breakdown

1 month
−4.7%
3 months
+1.0%
6 months
+9.6%
1 year
+81.3%
The full PCVX chart adds GekkoIndex, insider, options, Congress and hedge fund markers, plus TrendCandles™.Open PCVX in Gekko

Follow Vaxcyte through every session

Put PCVX on a Gekko watchlist and see its GekkoIndex, Gekko Fair Value and smart money signals update on the chart as they change.

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About Vaxcyte

Vaxcyte works in early-stage biotechnology, focused on building protein-based vaccines aimed at preventing or treating bacterial infections. Its furthest-along program, VAX-24, is a 24-valent pneumococcal conjugate vaccine in Phase 1/2 testing meant to guard against invasive pneumococcal disease and pneumonia. The company is best recognized for this pneumococcal vaccine work within its broader research pipeline.

Alongside VAX-24, Vaxcyte is developing several other vaccine candidates. VAX-XP targets emerging bacterial strains and antimicrobial resistance, VAX-A1 is a conjugate vaccine aimed at Group A Streptococcus, and VAX-PG is designed against the bacterium linked to periodontitis. The company's activities center on advancing these candidates through clinical development rather than on selling approved products.

Vaxcyte was founded in 2013 under the name SutroVax, Inc., adopting its current name in May 2020. It is headquartered in San Carlos, California, and its shares trade on the NASDAQ under the ticker PCVX.

Listed
NASDAQ
Sector
Health technology
Industry
Biotechnology
Website
vaxcyte.com

Vaxcyte GekkoIndex: the smart money zone

Vaxcyte’s GekkoIndex — Gekko’s 0 to 100 smart money score — reads 60.5, in the Accumulation zone, down 0.9 points over five sessions.

010060.5Accumulation

Down 0.9 points over five sessions.

Reading for Sep 28, 2026

What followed past readings in each zone

ZoneReadings5 days10 days20 days50 days
Buying35+0.8%+0.6%−1.2%+2.0%
Accumulation (current zone)220−1.4%−1.9%−1.3%+1.0%
Neutral380+1.3%+2.2%+3.0%+5.2%
Distribution30+0.1%+0.5%+0.7%−4.7%
Selling7Too few readings yet

Average PCVX share-price change over the trading days after each daily reading in its GekkoIndex history. Across every stock Gekko tracks, Accumulation readings averaged +2.3% over 20 days. Past behaviour doesn’t guarantee future results.

Accumulation zone: Institutional interest building. About the five zones →

See every daily GekkoIndex reading plotted over the PCVX price, zone by zone.Track PCVX in Gekko

Is Vaxcyte stock overvalued? Gekko Fair Value

Vaxcyte trades 24.5% below Gekko Fair Value of $77.21, so the shares are undervalued on Gekko’s estimate.

Gekko’s own estimate of what Vaxcyte shares are worth, recalculated every trading day.

$77.21

Gekko Fair Value, Sep 26, 2026

24.5% Undervalued

How Gekko Fair Value works →

Gekko Fair Value on every chart, with the gap to price updating daily.Open PCVX in Gekko

Vaxcyte insider and Congress trading

No open-market insider purchases were filed for Vaxcyte, and members of Congress disclosed 2 purchases and 0 sales, in the last 90 days.

Plus buybacks, unusual options and fund positions, each dated to when it became public.

Insider buying last 90 days

No open-market insider purchases were filed for PCVX in the last 90 days.

From Form 4 filings, dated to when each was filed.

Every PCVX insider filing, plotted on the chart in Gekko.Open PCVX in Gekko

Congress trades last 90 days

2trades disclosed: 2 purchases and 0 sales.

MemberTypeAmountDisclosed
Gilbert Ray Cisneros
House, CA, purchase
Purchase$1,001 - $15,000Sep 7
traded Jul 16
Gilbert Ray Cisneros
House, CA, purchase
Purchase$1,001 - $15,000Sep 7
traded Jul 15

From congressional disclosures, which report amounts as ranges.

Hedge funds and billionaires quarter ended Jun 30

0of the funds Gekko tracks hold PCVX.

0added0opened0trimmed2sold out
Which funds are on each side, name by name.Unlock in Gekko

Vaxcyte earnings: next date and track record

Vaxcyte reports on Nov 3, 2026 (35 days away), and beat the EPS estimate in 2 of its last 8 reports.

2 of 8reports beat the EPS estimate
±5.7%average move across the report
1 of 8reports followed by a gain

Share-price move across each report

−2.9%May ’24−3.1%Aug ’24+0.3%Nov ’24−3.7%Feb ’25−15.4%May ’25−11.0%Aug ’25−5.9%Nov ’25−3.1%Mar ’26

Last earnings call, Mar 2, 2026 AI summary

What they said
PCVX reported 2025 results with strong progress in their pneumococcal conjugate vaccine (PCV) franchise. The company completed construction of a large-scale manufacturing facility on time and budget, appointed their first Chief Commercial Officer, and strengthened their balance sheet through a February public equity offering. They initiated three Phase III OPUS trials for VAX-31 in adults and completed enrollment for their VAX-31 infant Phase II study.
Guidance
OPUS-1 top line data expected Q4 2025, with OPUS-2 and OPUS-3 results in first half 2027. VAX-31 infant study results expected by end of first half 2027.
ReportedEPSSurpriseRevenueSurpriseMove
Mar 2, 2026−$1.80
est −$1.47
−22.4%—
est $18.75M
—−3.1%
Nov 4, 2025−$1.56
est −$1.27
−22.8%——−5.9%
Aug 6, 2025−$1.22
est −$1.12
−8.9%——−11.0%
May 6, 2025−$1.04
est −$0.97
−6.7%——−15.4%
Feb 25, 2025−$1.02
est −$0.99
−2.6%——−3.7%
Nov 4, 2024−$0.83
est −$1.13
+26.5%——+0.3%
Aug 6, 2024−$1.10
est −$0.98
−12.2%——−3.1%
May 8, 2024−$0.85
est −$1.17
+27.4%——−2.9%

“Move” is the close of the first session after the report compared with the close of the last session before it, so it reads the same whether the company reported before the open or after the close.

Vaxcyte stock forecast and analyst price targets

Analysts’ average 12-month price target for Vaxcyte is $109.00, +87.1% from the last close, from 5 firms rating the stock in the last 90 days.

$109.00consensus 12-month target, +87.1% from the last close
Low $75High $130
Buy5
Hold0
Sell0

Each firm’s latest rating in the last 90 days: 5 firms.

Latest analyst actions

DateFirmRatingTargetvs price
Sep 28Bank of America SecuritiesBuy, reiterated$130+123.1%
Sep 25NeedhamBuy, reiterated$110+88.8%
Aug 6NeedhamBuy, reiterated$110+88.8%
Aug 5GuggenheimBuy, reiterated$116+99.1%
Aug 5TD CowenBuy, maintained$75+28.7%
−1.3%average 20-day move after past Accumulation readings
+14.5%average move over the next 20 trading days in the last 5 years
±3.8%typical daily move, from the 14-day average range

Gekko doesn’t publish price predictions. These are analyst targets and historical base rates, which don’t guarantee future results.

Vaxcyte seasonality: the next 20 trading days

Over the next 20 trading days from Sep 29, Vaxcyte averaged +14.5% across the last 5 years, rising in 2 of them.

Next 20 trading days, by year

−14.5%2021+66.1%2022−7.8%2023−1.3%2024+28.6%2025

Average move and hit rate

WindowAverageYears higher
Next 5 trading days+0.2%1 of 5
Next 10 trading days+2.8%3 of 5
Next 15 trading days−1.2%2 of 5
Next 20 trading days+14.5%2 of 5
Next 30 trading days+17.8%2 of 5

For scale, PCVX’s typical 20-trading-day move in either direction is about 8.7%.

Vaxcyte market cap and key statistics

Vaxcyte’s market cap is $8.41B and revenue of $0 over the last twelve months.

Valuation

Market cap
$8.41B
EPS, TTM
−$7.69
Gekko Fair Value
$77.21

Trading

Volume
1.85M
Avg volume, 20 days
1.40M
52-week high
$65.00
52-week low
$31.89
Shares outstanding
148.8M

Financials

Revenue, TTM
$0
Profit margin
0%
Return on equity
-36.5%
Quarterly earnings growth, YoY
0.0%

Risk and income

Beta
1.22
Typical daily move
±3.8%
Typical 20-day move
±8.7%

Vaxcyte stock news this week

2 headlines about Vaxcyte from the past week, newest first, each linking to the publisher.

Vaxcyte peers

Vaxcyte’s 6 largest industry peers by market value, with today’s move, GekkoIndex zone and gap to Gekko Fair Value.

StockTodayGekkoIndex zonevs Fair Value
AMGNAmgen+1.6%Neutral24.4% below
GILDGilead Sciences+1.6%Neutral6.9% above
MRNAModerna+1.1%Neutral73.2% above
NTRANatera+0.7%Distribution25.1% above
IQVIQVIA+1.7%Neutral14.2% above
UTHRUnited Therapeutics+2.5%Accumulation23.6% below

A peer links to its own page where one exists.

In the Buying zone today

Reporting earnings this week

Popular on Gekko

Vaxcyte stock FAQ

What is Vaxcyte’s market cap?

Vaxcyte’s market cap is $8.41B at the Sep 28, 2026 close of $58.27, with 148.8M shares outstanding.

What is the Vaxcyte stock forecast?

The consensus analyst 12-month price target for Vaxcyte is $109.00, +87.1% from the last close. Of the 5 firms that rated the stock in the last 90 days, 5 rate it a buy, 0 a hold and 0 a sell. Gekko doesn’t publish price predictions of its own.

Is Vaxcyte stock overvalued or undervalued?

On Gekko’s estimate Vaxcyte is undervalued: the Sep 28, 2026 close of $58.27 is 24.5% below Gekko Fair Value of $77.21. Gekko Fair Value is recalculated every trading day, and a gap inside 5% either way counts as about fair value.

When does Vaxcyte report earnings next?

Vaxcyte is expected to report on Nov 3, 2026 (35 days away). Analysts expect earnings of −$2.12 per share on revenue of $12.50M. Vaxcyte beat the earnings estimate in 2 of its last 8 reports, moving 5.7% on average across the report.

What is Vaxcyte’s 52-week high and low?

Vaxcyte’s 52-week high is $65.00 and its 52-week low is $31.89; it closed at $58.27 on Sep 28, 2026, +81.3% over the past year. Over the last five years the shares peaked at $121.06 on Sep 19, 2024.

Is Vaxcyte stock a buy right now?

Gekko describes the data; it does not make buy or sell recommendations. On the swing-trade checklist, 4 of the 6 items with data read as supportive (gekkoindex, fair value, smart money and earnings risk), 2 as mixed (trend and seasonality). The checklist is a description of current data, not a recommendation.

How this page works

During US trading hours the price at the top of the page is a delayed quote, refreshed every 15 minutes; everything else is rebuilt after each US market close. The GekkoIndex, Gekko Fair Value and the checklist are Gekko’s own, and the Gekko Brief is written by AI from this page’s data and checked against it before it is published. How Gekko’s data works →

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