Insider buying last 90 days
No open-market insider purchases were filed for NVS in the last 90 days.
From Form 4 filings, dated to when each was filed.
Every NVS insider filing, plotted on the chart in Gekko.Open NVS in Gekko
Novartis (NVS) Stock Analysis & Forecast
$140.37−0.55 (−0.4%)
Close on Sep 18, 2026. Page updated Sep 19, 9:14 pm ET.
Gekko Brief
AI summaryNovartis (NVS) closes at $140.37, down 0.4%, with the stock sitting between its 50-day average of $152.45 and 200-day average of $150.19. Shares are down 12.4% over the past month, down 4.6% over three months, and down 5.3% over six months, though still up 14.6% over the past year. The GekkoIndex reads 64.6, placing NVS in the Accumulation zone. The gap to Gekko Fair Value of $191.55 stands at -26.7%.
The past week's news centers on pipeline setbacks alongside one deal. Novartis halted development of its experimental ALS drug, VHB937 (lifonebart), after a mid-stage trial failed to meet primary and secondary endpoints, with the monoclonal antibody not outperforming placebo in slowing disease progression. Separately, the Phase III HARBOR study for del-desiran in myotonic dystrophy type 1 did not meet its primary endpoint, a development now drawing a securities investigation inquiry from Bronstein, Gewirtz & Grossman, LLC. On the deal front, Novartis agreed to pay $125 million upfront for global rights to a blood-brain barrier crossing platform from Boston-area biotech Sironax. Deutsche Bank's Emmanuel Papadakis maintained a Neutral rating with a CHF 120 target.
Novartis next reports earnings on 27 October 2026, before the open, 37 days out and beyond a typical 20-trading-day hold; the prior quarter beat estimates with $2.41 versus $2.20 expected and produced a 2.4% reaction, with 6 beats in the last 8 quarters. Seasonality over the next 20 trading days has averaged 0.3% across 5 years, rising in 2 of those. Analyst consensus target sits at $156.56 across 5 firms (1 buy, 3 hold, 1 sell).
Written by AI and checked automatically against the figures on this page. Generated Sep 20, 2026 from the data above.
Price vs fair value
Close $140.37200-day averageGekko Fair Value $191.55
Key stats
- Market cap
- $266.8B
- P/E ratio
- 21
- Forward P/E
- 14.3
- EPS, TTM
- $6.72
- Revenue, TTM
- $56.69B
- Profit margin
- 22.5%
- Dividend yield
- 3.36%
- Beta
- 0.49
- Volume
- 2.23M avg 2.45M
- 1-year return
- +14.6%
- Typical daily move
- ±3.4%
- Typical 20-day move
- ±4.1%
- 50-day average
- $152.45
- 200-day average
- $150.19
- Next earnings
- Oct 27 before open
- Shares outstanding
- 1.90B
Novartis swing-trade checklist
Novartis scores 3 supportive, 2 mixed and 0 headwinds across the 5 checklist items with data.
Six things swing traders check before a 20-day hold, read from the latest data.
3 supportive2 mixed0 headwinds
- Trendmixed
Averages disagree
Close $140.37 sits between the 50-day ($152.45) and 200-day ($150.19) averages, or the averages disagree.
See the chart - GekkoIndexsupportive
64.6, Accumulation
Reading 64.6 is in the Accumulation zone.
See the GekkoIndex - Fair valuesupportive
26.7% below
Price is 26.7% below Gekko Fair Value (more than 5% below).
See fair value - Smart moneyno data
No data
No insider, Congress or unusual options activity in the window.
See smart money - Earnings risksupportive
Reports in 37 days
Next report Oct 27, 2026, 37 days away — outside a typical 20-trading-day hold.
See earnings - Seasonalitymixed
+0.3% on average
From this point in the calendar, the next 20 trading days averaged +0.3% over 5 years, rising in 2 of them.
See seasonality
A description of current data, not a recommendation. How this page works
Novartis stock chart and price history
Novartis closed at $140.37 on Sep 18, 2026, +14.6% over the past year, inside a 52-week range of $121.57 to $170.46.
Close50-day average200-day averageVolume
Use the left and right arrow keys to read daily values.
Performance Breakdown
- 1 month
- −12.4%
- 3 months
- −4.6%
- 6 months
- −5.3%
- 1 year
- +14.6%
The full NVS chart adds GekkoIndex, insider, options, Congress and hedge fund markers, plus TrendCandles™.Open NVS in Gekko
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About Novartis
Novartis develops, manufactures, and markets healthcare products, with much of its work centered on prescription medicines used in treating cancer, immune-related conditions, neurological disorders, and heart and blood vessel diseases. Alongside these newer treatments, the company also maintains a line of long-established medicines and various specialized therapies for other conditions.
As a holding company, Novartis operates through its portfolio of healthcare-related businesses, drawing revenue from the sale of its medicines and therapies rather than a single product line.
Novartis traces its founding to February 29, 1996, and keeps its headquarters in Basel, Switzerland. Its shares trade under the ticker NVS.
- Sector
- Health technology
- Website
- novartis.com
Novartis GekkoIndex: the smart money zone
Novartis’s GekkoIndex — Gekko’s 0 to 100 smart money score — reads 64.6, in the Accumulation zone, down 7.5 points over five sessions.
64.6Accumulation
Down 7.5 points over five sessions, from the Buying zone.
Reading for Sep 18, 2026
What followed past readings in each zone
| Zone | Readings | 5 days | 20 days | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Buying | 30 | −0.3% | −1.1% | ||
| Accumulation (current zone) | 149 | +1.0% | +3.4% | ||
| Neutral | 384 | +0.2% | +1.5% | ||
| Distribution | 52 | +0.1% | +0.6% | ||
| Selling | 0 | Not available | |||
Average NVS share-price change over the trading days after each daily reading in its GekkoIndex history. Across every stock Gekko tracks, Accumulation readings averaged +2.3% over 20 days. Past behaviour doesn’t guarantee future results.
Accumulation zone: Institutional interest building. About the five zones →
See every daily GekkoIndex reading plotted over the NVS price, zone by zone.Track NVS in Gekko
Is Novartis stock overvalued? Gekko Fair Value
Novartis trades 26.7% below Gekko Fair Value of $191.55, so the shares are undervalued on Gekko’s estimate.
Gekko’s own estimate of what Novartis shares are worth, recalculated every trading day.
$191.55
Gekko Fair Value, Sep 19, 2026
26.7% Undervalued
Gekko Fair Value on every chart, with the gap to price updating daily.Open NVS in Gekko
Novartis insider and Congress trading
No open-market insider purchases were filed for Novartis, and no Congress trades were disclosed, in the last 90 days.
Plus buybacks, unusual options and fund positions, each dated to when it became public.
Congress trades last 90 days
No trades in NVS were disclosed by members of Congress in the last 90 days.
From congressional disclosures, which report amounts as ranges.
Congress disclosures for NVS, plotted on the chart in Gekko.Open NVS in Gekko
Buybacks
Novartis has been buying back its own shares.
- Bought back, quarter ended Jun 30, 2026
- $1.20B
- As a share of market cap
- 0.45%
- Trailing four quarters
- $6.85B
From company filings.
Hedge funds and billionaires quarter ended Jun 30
1of the funds Gekko tracks holds NVS.
0added1opened0trimmed0sold out
Which funds are on each side, name by name.Unlock in Gekko
Novartis earnings: next date and track record
Novartis reports on Oct 27, 2026, before the open (37 days away), and beat the EPS estimate in 6 of its last 8 reports.
Next earnings report
Oct 27, 2026
Expected before the open, 37 days away
- EPS estimate
- $2.24
- Revenue estimate
- $14.62B
6 of 8reports beat the EPS estimate
±2.7%average move across the report
4 of 8reports followed by a gain
Share-price move across each report
Last earnings call, Jul 21, 2026 AI summary
- What they said
- Novartis Q2 2026 delivered 1% constant currency growth with flat core operating income of $5.9 billion. Growth drivers surged 36% in constant currencies, led by KISQALI (+43%, exceeding $1B U.S. quarterly sales), Kesimpta (+32%), and PLUVICTO (+43%). The company highlighted updated six-year KISQALI OS data in early breast cancer and continued pipeline advancement across key therapeutic areas.
- Guidance
- Novartis reaffirmed full-year 2026 guidance, expressing confidence in midterm growth targets as Entresto patent expiry headwinds are overcome. Management maintains a $10 billion peak sales target for KISQALI, with Kesimpta phase III maintenance dosing data expected in 2027.
| Reported | EPS | Revenue | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Jul 21, 2026 | $2.41 est $2.20 | $14.41B est $14.07B | +2.4% |
| Apr 28, 2026 | $1.65 est $1.65 | $13.11B est $13.44B | −0.9% |
| Feb 4, 2026 | $2.03 est $1.99 | $13.34B est $13.70B | +2.7% |
| Oct 28, 2025 | $2.25 est $2.26 | $14.36B est $13.64B | −5.7% |
| Jul 17, 2025 | $2.42 est $2.38 | $14.28B est $13.94B | −3.5% |
| Apr 29, 2025 | $2.28 est $2.12 | $13.62B est $13.90B | +0.8% |
| Jan 31, 2025 | $1.98 est $1.76 | $13.56B est $12.84B | +0.7% |
| Oct 29, 2024 | $2.06 est $1.93 | $13.17B est $12.76B | −4.9% |
“Move” is the close of the first session after the report compared with the close of the last session before it, so it reads the same whether the company reported before the open or after the close.
Novartis stock forecast and analyst price targets
Analysts’ average 12-month price target for Novartis is $156.56, +11.5% from the last close, from 5 firms rating the stock in the last 90 days.
$156.56consensus 12-month target, +11.5% from the last close
Now $140.37Avg $156.56
Low $136High $185.45
Each firm’s latest rating in the last 90 days: 5 firms.
Latest analyst actions
| Date | Firm | Target | vs price |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 10 | HSBC | $136 | −3.1% |
| Sep 8 | TD Cowen | $180 | +28.2% |
| Sep 7 | Bank of America Securities | $185.45 | +32.1% |
| Sep 1 | Bank of America Securities | — | — |
| Sep 1 | Bank of America Securities | $172.96 | +23.2% |
+3.4%average 20-day move after past Accumulation readings
+0.3%average move over the next 20 trading days in the last 5 years
±3.4%typical daily move, from the 14-day average range
Gekko doesn’t publish price predictions. These are analyst targets and historical base rates, which don’t guarantee future results.
Novartis seasonality: the next 20 trading days
Over the next 20 trading days from Sep 19, Novartis averaged +0.3% across the last 5 years, rising in 2 of them.
Next 20 trading days, by year
Average move and hit rate
| Window | Average | Years higher |
|---|---|---|
| Next 5 trading days | −1.7% | 2 of 5 |
| Next 10 trading days | −0.5% | 1 of 5 |
| Next 15 trading days | −0.1% | 2 of 5 |
| Next 20 trading days | +0.3% | 2 of 5 |
| Next 30 trading days | −1.3% | 3 of 5 |
For scale, NVS’s typical 20-trading-day move in either direction is about 4.1%.
Novartis market cap and key statistics
Novartis’s market cap is $266.8B, with a P/E ratio of 21 and revenue of $56.69B over the last twelve months.
Valuation
- Market cap
- $266.8B
- P/E ratio
- 21
- Forward P/E
- 14.3
- EPS, TTM
- $6.72
- Gekko Fair Value
- $191.55
Trading
- Volume
- 2.23M
- Avg volume, 20 days
- 2.45M
- 52-week high
- $170.46
- 52-week low
- $121.57
- Shares outstanding
- 1.90B
Financials
- Revenue, TTM
- $56.69B
- Profit margin
- 22.5%
- Return on equity
- 30.3%
- Quarterly earnings growth, YoY
- −17.0%
Risk and income
- Beta
- 0.49
- Typical daily move
- ±3.4%
- Typical 20-day move
- ±4.1%
- Dividend yield
- 3.36%
Novartis stock news this week
Coverage of Novartis this week reads negative: 1 positive, 1 neutral and 6 negative headlines.
- Bronstein, Gewirtz & Grossman, LLC Encourages Novartis AG (NVS) Stockholders to Inquire about Securities InvestigationACCESS Newswire, Sep 17
- Novartis to pay $125M for blood-brain barrier crossing platformBioPharma Dive, Sep 17
- Novartis halts ALS drug development after mid-stage trial failureReuters, Sep 16
- Novartis Discontinues Study for Investigational ALS Drug After Missing Endpointsmarketscreener.com, Sep 16
- Novartis experimental drug for ALS fails in another pipeline hitMoneycontrol.com, Sep 16
- Novartis halts ALS drug development after mid-stage trial failsStreetInsider, Sep 16
Novartis stock FAQ
What is Novartis’s market cap?
Novartis’s market cap is $266.8B at the Sep 18, 2026 close of $140.37, with 1.90B shares outstanding. The shares trade on a P/E ratio of 21.
What is the Novartis stock forecast?
The consensus analyst 12-month price target for Novartis is $156.56, +11.5% from the last close. Of the 5 firms that rated the stock in the last 90 days, 1 rate it a buy, 3 a hold and 1 a sell. Gekko doesn’t publish price predictions of its own.
Is Novartis stock overvalued or undervalued?
On Gekko’s estimate Novartis is undervalued: the Sep 18, 2026 close of $140.37 is 26.7% below Gekko Fair Value of $191.55. Gekko Fair Value is recalculated every trading day, and a gap inside 5% either way counts as about fair value.
When does Novartis report earnings next?
Novartis is expected to report on Oct 27, 2026, before the market opens (37 days away). Analysts expect earnings of $2.24 per share on revenue of $14.62B. Novartis beat the earnings estimate in 6 of its last 8 reports, moving 2.7% on average across the report.
What is Novartis’s 52-week high and low?
Novartis’s 52-week high is $170.46 and its 52-week low is $121.57; it closed at $140.37 on Sep 18, 2026, +14.6% over the past year.
Is Novartis stock a buy right now?
Gekko describes the data; it does not make buy or sell recommendations. On the swing-trade checklist, 3 of the 5 items with data read as supportive (gekkoindex, fair value and earnings risk), 2 as mixed (trend and seasonality). The checklist is a description of current data, not a recommendation.
How this page works
Prices and signals update after every US market close; the GekkoIndex, Gekko Fair Value and the checklist are Gekko’s own, and the Gekko Brief is written by AI from this page’s data and checked against it before it is published. How Gekko’s data works →
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