Insider buying last 90 days
No open-market insider purchases were filed for NVAX in the last 90 days.
From Form 4 filings, dated to when each was filed.
Every NVAX insider filing, plotted on the chart in Gekko.Open NVAX in Gekko
NASDAQ: NVAX
Novavax (NVAX) Stock Analysis & Forecast
Oct 12 close
$12.66−0.09 (−0.7%)
Gekko Brief
AI summaryOct 12 closeNovavax shares surged this week, climbing as much as 16% to $12.77 and 15.80% to $12.75 in separate sessions, breaking a three-day losing streak amid a broader biotech rally alongside gains in Moderna and Merck, with coverage citing positive vaccine developments. Analysts raised the 12-month average price target to $14.86 from $14.71, implying roughly 35% upside at the time, with individual forecasts ranging from $7 to $25. The stock's one-month return reached 18.4%, outperforming the S&P 500 even as its industry lagged.
NVAX closed at $12.66, down 0.7% on the day, but sits well above both its 50-day average of $9.64 and 200-day average of $9.04, reflecting a supportive longer-term trend with one-month, three-month, six-month and one-year returns of 34.4%, 50.4%, 56.1% and 47.4% respectively. The GekkoIndex reads 48.3, placing the stock in the Neutral zone. Price trades 11.8% above Gekko Fair Value of $11.32, a gap that bears watching.
Novavax next reports earnings on 5 November 2026, before the open, 24 days away and inside a typical 20-trading-day holding window; its last report beat estimates with a loss of $0.32 per share against a $0.38 estimate, producing a 3.2% reaction. No insider, Congress or unusual options activity appears in the recent windows. Seasonality skews negative, with the next 20 trading days averaging a 6% decline over 5 years, rising in only 2 of those years. The current 52-week high stands at $13.39, close to the recent print.
Written by AI from the Oct 12, 2026 close and checked automatically against the figures on this page.
Novavax price vs fair value
Close $12.66200-day averageGekko Fair Value $11.32
Novavax quick facts
- Market cap
- $2.08B
- P/E ratio
- —
- Forward P/E
- 2.6
- EPS, TTM
- −$1.58
- Revenue, TTM
- $413.8M
- Profit margin
- -59.9%
- Dividend yield
- —
- Beta
- 2.44
- Volume
- 8.50M avg 8.20M
- 1-year return
- +47.4%
- Typical daily move
- ±7.9%
- Typical 20-day move
- ±14.1%
- 50-day average
- $9.64
- 200-day average
- $9.04
- Next earnings
- Nov 5 before open
- Shares outstanding
- 164.9M
Novavax swing-trade checklist
Novavax scores 1 supportive, 1 mixed and 3 headwinds across the 5 checklist items with data.
Six things swing traders check before a 20-day hold, read from the latest data.
1 supportive1 mixed3 headwinds
- Trendsupportive
Above 50 and 200-day
Close $12.66 is above the 50-day ($9.64) and 200-day ($9.04) averages, and the 50-day is above the 200-day.
See the chart - GekkoIndexmixed
48.3, Neutral
Reading 48.3 is in the Neutral zone.
See the GekkoIndex - Fair valueheadwind
11.8% above
Price is 11.8% above Gekko Fair Value (more than 5% above).
See fair value - Smart moneyno data
No data
No insider, Congress or unusual options activity in the window.
See smart money - Earnings riskheadwind
Reports in 24 days
Reports on Nov 5, 2026, 24 days away — inside a typical 20-trading-day hold.
See earnings - Seasonalityheadwind
−6.0% on average
From this point in the calendar, the next 20 trading days averaged −6% over 5 years, rising in 2 of them.
See seasonality
A description of current data, not a recommendation. How this page works
Novavax stock chart and price history
Novavax closed at $12.66 on Oct 12, 2026, +47.4% over the past year, inside a 52-week range of $6.20 to $13.39.
Close50-day average200-day averageVolume
Use the left and right arrow keys to read daily values.
Performance Breakdown
- 1 month
- +34.4%
- 3 months
- +50.4%
- 6 months
- +56.1%
- 1 year
- +47.4%
The full NVAX chart adds GekkoIndex, insider, options, Congress and hedge fund markers, plus TrendCandles™.Open NVAX in Gekko
Follow Novavax through every session
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About Novavax
Novavax works in biotechnology, focused on finding, developing, and bringing to market vaccines meant to guard against serious infectious diseases. Its best-known program is NVX-CoV2373, a vaccine candidate targeting the coronavirus that has moved through multiple stages of clinical testing, including two separate Phase III studies. The company is also known for its work on influenza and RSV vaccines built on nanoparticle technology.
Beyond the coronavirus candidate, Novavax's pipeline includes NanoFlu, a seasonal quadrivalent flu vaccine in late-stage trials, and ResVax, aimed at respiratory syncytial virus, which has been tested in older adults as well as in pediatric populations at an earlier trial stage. The company has partnered with Takeda Pharmaceutical Company Limited to develop, manufacture, and commercialize its coronavirus vaccine candidate, pointing to a model that relies on outside collaboration to advance and scale its vaccine programs.
Novavax was founded in 1987 and is headquartered in Gaithersburg, Maryland. Its shares are listed on the NASDAQ under the ticker NVAX.
- Listed
- NASDAQ
- Sector
- Health technology
- Industry
- Biotechnology
- Website
- novavax.com
Novavax GekkoIndex: the smart money zone
Novavax’s GekkoIndex — Gekko’s 0 to 100 smart money score — reads 48.3, in the Neutral zone, up 4.2 points over five sessions.
48.3Neutral
Up 4.2 points over five sessions, from the Distribution zone.
Reading for Oct 12, 2026
What followed past readings in each zone
| Zone | Readings | 5 days | 20 days | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Buying | 50 | +3.1% | +27.3% | ||
| Accumulation | 246 | +1.8% | +12.2% | ||
| Neutral (current zone) | 344 | +2.1% | +3.8% | ||
| Distribution | 36 | −3.5% | −5.0% | ||
| Selling | 6 | Too few readings yet | |||
Average NVAX share-price change over the trading days after each daily reading in its GekkoIndex history. Across every stock Gekko tracks, Neutral readings averaged +1.1% over 20 days. Past behaviour doesn’t guarantee future results.
Neutral zone: No clear directional signal. About the five zones →
See every daily GekkoIndex reading plotted over the NVAX price, zone by zone.Track NVAX in Gekko
Is Novavax stock overvalued? Gekko Fair Value
Novavax trades 11.8% above Gekko Fair Value of $11.32, so the shares are overvalued on Gekko’s estimate.
Gekko’s own estimate of what Novavax shares are worth, recalculated every trading day.
$11.32
Gekko Fair Value, Oct 10, 2026
11.8% Overvalued
At the end of Aug 2026 the price was 22.3% below the estimate.
Gekko Fair ValueShare price, month end
Gekko Fair Value on every chart, with the gap to price updating daily.Open NVAX in Gekko
Novavax insider and Congress trading
No open-market insider purchases were filed for Novavax, and no Congress trades were disclosed, in the last 90 days.
Plus buybacks, unusual options and fund positions, each dated to when it became public.
Congress trades last 90 days
No trades in NVAX were disclosed by members of Congress in the last 90 days.
From congressional disclosures, which report amounts as ranges.
Congress disclosures for NVAX, plotted on the chart in Gekko.Open NVAX in Gekko
Buybacks
Novavax has been buying back its own shares.
- Bought back, quarter ended Jun 30, 2026
- $8.16M
- As a share of market cap
- 0.39%
- Trailing four quarters
- $17.47M
From company filings.
Hedge funds and billionaires quarter ended Mar 31
1of the funds Gekko tracks holds NVAX.
0added1opened0trimmed1sold out
Which funds are on each side, name by name.Unlock in Gekko
Novavax earnings: next date and track record
Novavax reports on Nov 5, 2026, before the open (24 days away), and beat the EPS estimate in 7 of its last 8 reports.
Next earnings report
Nov 5, 2026
Expected before the open, 24 days away
- EPS estimate
- −$0.22
- Revenue estimate
- $77.20M
7 of 8reports beat the EPS estimate
±10.7%average move across the report
6 of 8reports followed by a gain
Share-price move across each report
| Reported | EPS | Revenue | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 6, 2026 | −$0.32 est −$0.38 | $56.70M est $52.51M | +3.2% |
| May 6, 2026 | −$0.06 est −$0.24 | $139.5M est $79.81M | +14.0% |
| Feb 26, 2026 | $0.11 est −$0.42 | $147.1M est $89.85M | +6.4% |
| Nov 6, 2025 | −$0.62 est −$1.08 | $70.45M est $90.26M | −3.3% |
| Aug 6, 2025 | $0.62 est −$0.07 | $239.2M est $55.63M | +30.5% |
| May 8, 2025 | $2.93 est $0.71 | $666.7M est $343.9M | +0.5% |
| Feb 27, 2025 | −$0.52 est −$0.51 | $88.31M est $84.38M | +13.8% |
| Nov 12, 2024 | −$0.76 est −$0.78 | $84.51M est $90.93M | −13.8% |
“Move” is the close of the first session after the report compared with the close of the last session before it, so it reads the same whether the company reported before the open or after the close.
Novavax stock forecast and analyst price targets
Analysts’ average 12-month price target for Novavax is $14.00, +10.6% from the last close, from 2 firms rating the stock in the last 90 days.
$14.00consensus 12-month target, +10.6% from the last close
Now $12.66Avg $14.00
Low $8High $9
Each firm’s latest rating in the last 90 days: 2 firms.
Latest analyst actions
| Date | Firm | Target | vs price |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 9 | Bank of America Securities | $8 | −36.8% |
| Sep 18 | Bank of America Securities | $7 | −44.7% |
| Aug 7 | Bank of America Securities | $7 | −44.7% |
| Aug 4 | TD Cowen | $9 | −28.9% |
| Aug 3 | TD Cowen | $9 | −28.9% |
+3.8%average 20-day move after past Neutral readings
−6.0%average move over the next 20 trading days in the last 5 years
±7.9%typical daily move, from the 14-day average range
Gekko doesn’t publish price predictions. These are analyst targets and historical base rates, which don’t guarantee future results.
Novavax seasonality: the next 20 trading days
Over the next 20 trading days from Oct 10, Novavax averaged −6.0% across the last 5 years, rising in 2 of them.
Next 20 trading days, by year
Average move and hit rate
| Window | Average | Years higher |
|---|---|---|
| Next 5 trading days | −4.1% | 2 of 5 |
| Next 10 trading days | −7.1% | 2 of 5 |
| Next 15 trading days | −0.4% | 3 of 5 |
| Next 20 trading days | −6.0% | 2 of 5 |
| Next 30 trading days | −10.8% | 2 of 5 |
For scale, NVAX’s typical 20-trading-day move in either direction is about 14.1%.
Novavax market cap and key statistics
Novavax’s market cap is $2.08B and revenue of $413.8M over the last twelve months.
Valuation
- Market cap
- $2.08B
- Forward P/E
- 2.6
- EPS, TTM
- −$1.58
- Gekko Fair Value
- $11.32
Trading
- Volume
- 8.50M
- Avg volume, 20 days
- 8.20M
- 52-week high
- $13.39
- 52-week low
- $6.20
- Shares outstanding
- 164.9M
Financials
- Revenue, TTM
- $413.8M
- Profit margin
- -59.9%
- Return on equity
- -898%
- Quarterly earnings growth, YoY
- −38.1%
Risk and income
- Beta
- 2.44
- Typical daily move
- ±7.9%
- Typical 20-day move
- ±14.1%
Novavax stock news this week
Coverage of Novavax this week reads positive: 9 positive, 2 neutral and 5 negative headlines.
- Novavax Inc Tokenized Stock (Coinbase) price today, NVAXc to USD live price, marketcap and chartCoinMarketCap, Oct 11
- Novavax Inc (Coinbase Tokenized Stock) Price | NVAXc Price Today, Live Chart, USD converter, Market CapitalizationCryptoRank, Oct 10
- Novavax Inc (Coinbase Tokenized Stock) AnalyticsCryptoRank, Oct 9
- Novavax Inc. stock outperforms competitors on strong trading dayMarketWatch, Oct 9
- Novavax, Inc. Stock 12‑Month Price Target Raised to $14.86, Implies 35% UpsideTradingView, Oct 9
- NVAX Stock Grinds Higher As Traders Watch Volatile ReboundTimothy Sykes, Oct 9
Novavax peers
Novavax’s 6 largest industry peers by market value, with today’s move, GekkoIndex zone and gap to Gekko Fair Value.
| Stock | GekkoIndex zone | vs Fair Value |
|---|---|---|
| AMGNAmgen | Neutral | 25.5% below |
| GILDGilead Sciences | Neutral | 4.2% above |
| MRNAModerna | Neutral | 62.7% above |
| NTRANatera | Neutral | 10.3% above |
| IQVIQVIA | Neutral | 8.4% above |
| UTHRUnited Therapeutics | Neutral | 14.4% below |
A peer links to its own page where one exists.
Novavax stock FAQ
What is Novavax’s market cap?
Novavax’s market cap is $2.08B at the Oct 12, 2026 close of $12.66, with 164.9M shares outstanding.
What is the Novavax stock forecast?
The consensus analyst 12-month price target for Novavax is $14.00, +10.6% from the last close. Of the 2 firms that rated the stock in the last 90 days, 0 rate it a buy, 1 a hold and 1 a sell. Gekko doesn’t publish price predictions of its own.
Is Novavax stock overvalued or undervalued?
On Gekko’s estimate Novavax is overvalued: the Oct 12, 2026 close of $12.66 is 11.8% above Gekko Fair Value of $11.32. Gekko Fair Value is recalculated every trading day, and a gap inside 5% either way counts as about fair value.
When does Novavax report earnings next?
Novavax is expected to report on Nov 5, 2026, before the market opens (24 days away). Analysts expect earnings of −$0.22 per share on revenue of $77.20M. Novavax beat the earnings estimate in 7 of its last 8 reports, moving 10.7% on average across the report.
What is Novavax’s 52-week high and low?
Novavax’s 52-week high is $13.39 and its 52-week low is $6.20; it closed at $12.66 on Oct 12, 2026, +47.4% over the past year. Over the last five years the shares peaked at $236.50 on Dec 20, 2021.
Is Novavax stock a buy right now?
Gekko describes the data; it does not make buy or sell recommendations. On the swing-trade checklist, 1 of the 5 items with data read as supportive (trend), 1 as mixed (gekkoindex) and 3 as headwinds (fair value, earnings risk and seasonality). The checklist is a description of current data, not a recommendation.
How this page works
During US trading hours the price at the top of the page is a delayed quote, refreshed every 15 minutes; everything else is rebuilt after each US market close. The GekkoIndex, Gekko Fair Value and the checklist are Gekko’s own, and the Gekko Brief is written by AI from this page’s data and checked against it before it is published. How Gekko’s data works →
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