Insider buying last 90 days
No open-market insider purchases were filed for HCA in the last 90 days.
From Form 4 filings, dated to when each was filed.
Every HCA insider filing, plotted on the chart in Gekko.Open HCA in Gekko
NYSE: HCA
HCA Healthcare (HCA) Stock Analysis & Forecast
$427.71−1.33 (−0.3%)
Close on Sep 18, 2026. Page updated Sep 19, 9:15 pm ET.
Gekko Brief
AI summaryHCA Healthcare closes at $427.71, down 0.3%, sitting between its 50-day average of $406.30 and 200-day average of $448.69. The GekkoIndex reads 50.8, placing the stock in the Neutral zone, while price stands 10.2% above Gekko Fair Value of $388.07. Over the past month the stock has gained 5.1%, and over three months 14%, though it remains down 14.4% over six months and up 7.1% over the past year.
This week's coverage centers on payer mix pressure tied to the expiration of enhanced exchange tax credits, with an estimated $1 billion to $1.2 billion impact cited alongside slower elective care utilization amid otherwise solid demand. HCA also completed its acquisition of The College of Health Care Professions, which serves over 8,000 students across 10 campuses in Texas, and the company presented at the Jefferies Healthcare Services and Technology Conference. Shares went ex-dividend on 16 September with a $0.78 per share payout, and separate investor-alert notices regarding a law firm investigation of the company also circulated.
Looking ahead, the next earnings report lands on 23 October 2026, 33 days out and beyond a typical 20-trading-day hold, following a July quarter in which EPS of $7.59 beat the $7.57 estimate and produced a 3.5% reaction, with 6 beats in the last 8 quarters and an average absolute reaction of 4.4%. Seasonality from this point has averaged 0% over the next 20 trading days across 5 years, rising in 2 of them. Analyst consensus stands at 13 buy, 7 hold and 1 sell across 21 firms, with a consensus target of $452.67, about 5.8% above current levels.
Written by AI and checked automatically against the figures on this page. Generated Sep 20, 2026 from the data above.
Price vs fair value
Close $427.71200-day averageGekko Fair Value $388.07
Key stats
- Market cap
- $92.60B
- P/E ratio
- 14.4
- Forward P/E
- 13.6
- EPS, TTM
- $29.73
- Revenue, TTM
- $78.01B
- Profit margin
- 8.8%
- Dividend yield
- 0.70%
- Beta
- 1.11
- Volume
- 5.36M avg 1.53M
- 1-year return
- +7.1%
- Typical daily move
- ±3.2%
- Typical 20-day move
- ±5.9%
- 50-day average
- $406.30
- 200-day average
- $448.69
- Next earnings
- Oct 23
- Shares outstanding
- 221.8M
HCA Healthcare swing-trade checklist
HCA Healthcare scores 1 supportive, 3 mixed and 1 headwind across the 5 checklist items with data.
Six things swing traders check before a 20-day hold, read from the latest data.
1 supportive3 mixed1 headwind
- Trendmixed
Averages disagree
Close $427.71 sits between the 50-day ($406.30) and 200-day ($448.69) averages, or the averages disagree.
See the chart - GekkoIndexmixed
50.8, Neutral
Reading 50.8 is in the Neutral zone.
See the GekkoIndex - Fair valueheadwind
10.2% above
Price is 10.2% above Gekko Fair Value (more than 5% above).
See fair value - Smart moneyno data
No data
No insider, Congress or unusual options activity in the window.
See smart money - Earnings risksupportive
Reports in 33 days
Next report Oct 23, 2026, 33 days away — outside a typical 20-trading-day hold.
See earnings - Seasonalitymixed
0.0% on average
From this point in the calendar, the next 20 trading days averaged 0% over 5 years, rising in 2 of them.
See seasonality
A description of current data, not a recommendation. How this page works
HCA Healthcare stock chart and price history
HCA Healthcare closed at $427.71 on Sep 18, 2026, +7.1% over the past year, inside a 52-week range of $353.99 to $556.52.
Close50-day average200-day averageVolume
Use the left and right arrow keys to read daily values.
Performance Breakdown
- 1 month
- +5.1%
- 3 months
- +14.0%
- 6 months
- −14.4%
- 1 year
- +7.1%
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About HCA Healthcare
HCA Healthcare provides a wide range of medical services across the United States through its subsidiaries. Its hospitals handle general and acute care, including inpatient treatment, intensive and cardiac care, diagnostics, and emergency medicine, while also supporting outpatient services such as ambulatory surgery, lab work, imaging, respiratory and physical therapy, and cardiology. Beyond hospital campuses, the company runs standalone surgery and emergency centers, urgent care and walk-in clinics, imaging and rehabilitation sites, oncology and radiation facilities, and physician offices.
The company also operates psychiatric hospitals offering treatment for children, adolescents, and adults, along with programs addressing alcohol and drug dependency. Its facilities are grouped into general and acute care hospitals, psychiatric hospitals, and rehabilitation hospitals, supported by a large number of freestanding surgery and endoscopy centers spread across multiple states and England, serving patients who need both hospital-based and outpatient medical care.
HCA Healthcare was founded in 1968 and was previously known as HCA Holdings, Inc. It is headquartered in Nashville, Tennessee, and its shares are listed on the NYSE under the ticker HCA.
- Listed
- NYSE
- Sector
- Health services
- Industry
- Hospital/Nursing management
- Website
- hcahealthcare.com
HCA Healthcare GekkoIndex: the smart money zone
HCA Healthcare’s GekkoIndex — Gekko’s 0 to 100 smart money score — reads 50.8, in the Neutral zone, down 2.6 points over five sessions.
50.8Neutral
Down 2.6 points over five sessions.
Reading for Sep 18, 2026
What followed past readings in each zone
| Zone | Readings | 5 days | 20 days | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Buying | 60 | 0.0% | −0.4% | ||
| Accumulation | 141 | +0.3% | +1.1% | ||
| Neutral (current zone) | 397 | +0.6% | +1.4% | ||
| Distribution | 61 | −0.6% | +3.6% | ||
| Selling | 3 | Too few readings yet | |||
Average HCA share-price change over the trading days after each daily reading in its GekkoIndex history. Across every stock Gekko tracks, Neutral readings averaged +1.2% over 20 days. Past behaviour doesn’t guarantee future results.
Neutral zone: No clear directional signal. About the five zones →
See every daily GekkoIndex reading plotted over the HCA price, zone by zone.Track HCA in Gekko
Is HCA Healthcare stock overvalued? Gekko Fair Value
HCA Healthcare trades 10.2% above Gekko Fair Value of $388.07, so the shares are overvalued on Gekko’s estimate.
Gekko’s own estimate of what HCA Healthcare shares are worth, recalculated every trading day.
$388.07
Gekko Fair Value, Sep 19, 2026
10.2% Overvalued
Gekko Fair Value on every chart, with the gap to price updating daily.Open HCA in Gekko
HCA Healthcare insider and Congress trading
No open-market insider purchases were filed for HCA Healthcare, and no Congress trades were disclosed, in the last 90 days.
Plus buybacks, unusual options and fund positions, each dated to when it became public.
Congress trades last 90 days
No trades in HCA were disclosed by members of Congress in the last 90 days.
From congressional disclosures, which report amounts as ranges.
Congress disclosures for HCA, plotted on the chart in Gekko.Open HCA in Gekko
Buybacks
HCA Healthcare has been buying back its own shares.
- Bought back, quarter ended Jun 30, 2026
- $2.06B
- As a share of market cap
- 2.23%
- Trailing four quarters
- $8.69B
From company filings.
Hedge funds and billionaires quarter ended Jun 30
2of the funds Gekko tracks hold HCA.
2added0opened0trimmed1sold out
Which funds are on each side, name by name.Unlock in Gekko
HCA Healthcare earnings: next date and track record
HCA Healthcare reports on Oct 23, 2026 (33 days away), and beat the EPS estimate in 6 of its last 8 reports.
Next earnings report
Oct 23, 2026
33 days away
- EPS estimate
- $6.71
- Revenue estimate
- $19.35B
6 of 8reports beat the EPS estimate
±4.4%average move across the report
4 of 8reports followed by a gain
Share-price move across each report
Last earnings call, Jul 24, 2026 AI summary
- What they said
- HCA Healthcare Q2 2026 earnings call focused on payer mix headwinds driven by expiration of enhanced premium tax credits causing exchange patients to migrate to uninsured, leading to significant adjusted EBITDA impact. Management highlighted solid EPS growth (11% quarter and YTD), volume gains in insured populations excluding exchanges, increased uninsured volumes, and incremental net benefit from Medicaid supplemental payment programs, particularly a $540 million benefit from Florida. They emphasized resiliency initiatives to control costs and multi-year investments including $7B capital over 3 years for inpatient and outpatient expansion. Surgery volumes declined (elective down 6%, inpatient emergent stable +2%), professional fees elevated (anesthesia, radiology), and provider taxes affecting other OpEx. Management provided updated guidance reflecting $1.0-1.2B exchange headwind for full year and adjustments for supplemental payments; they expect attrition to be lower in 2027 than 2026 absent new enhanced credits. Risks discussed include payer mix headwinds, Medicaid work requirements, regulatory uncertainties (IDR/no surprises, OPPS proposed rule), and state-specific Medicaid conversion slowdowns (Texas).
- Guidance
- Company provided forward-looking guidance updates: full-year 2026 updated estimate of exchange headwind of $1.0 billion to $1.2 billion; implied updated full-year adjusted EBITDA guidance reduced by roughly $250 million (management noted ~$500 million reduction after adjustments) aligning to long-term growth algorithm. They also recognized accruals and 21-month Florida Medicaid DPP benefit (10/1/2024-6/30/2026) and included assumed accruals for FY2026 in guidance. Management expects exchange attrition to be less in 2027 than 2026 under assumption that core ACA premium tax credits remain in place.
- Risks flagged
- Key risks mentioned: expiration of enhanced premium tax credits leading to uninsured migration and unfavorable payer mix; potential further policy or market changes affecting exchanges; Medicaid work requirements implementation uncertainty (esp. in expansion states); state-level Medicaid conversion slowdowns (notably Texas); regulatory and payment uncertainty including IDR/no-surprises adjustments and finalization of OPPS/other CMS rules; dependency on Medicaid supplemental payment program approvals (Florida accrual); inflationary pressures in professional fees (anesthesia, radiology) and provider taxes.
| Reported | EPS | Revenue | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Jul 24, 2026 | $7.59 est $7.57 | $20.23B est $19.76B | +3.5% |
| Apr 24, 2026 | $7.15 est $7.15 | $19.11B est $19.09B | −6.0% |
| Jan 27, 2026 | $8.01 est $7.46 | $19.51B est $19.68B | +4.0% |
| Oct 24, 2025 | $6.96 est $5.79 | $19.16B est $18.60B | +6.3% |
| Jul 25, 2025 | $6.84 est $6.29 | $18.61B est $18.50B | −0.3% |
| Apr 25, 2025 | $6.45 est $5.75 | $18.32B est $18.26B | −2.8% |
| Jan 24, 2025 | $6.22 est $6.14 | $18.29B est $18.23B | +2.0% |
| Oct 25, 2024 | $4.88 est $4.98 | $17.49B est $17.54B | −10.6% |
“Move” is the close of the first session after the report compared with the close of the last session before it, so it reads the same whether the company reported before the open or after the close.
HCA Healthcare stock forecast and analyst price targets
Analysts’ average 12-month price target for HCA Healthcare is $452.67, +5.8% from the last close, from 21 firms rating the stock in the last 90 days.
$452.67consensus 12-month target, +5.8% from the last close
Now $427.71Avg $452.67
Low $380High $579
Each firm’s latest rating in the last 90 days: 21 firms.
Latest analyst actions
| Date | Firm | Target | vs price |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 17 | Jefferies | $450 | +5.2% |
| Sep 17 | Leerink Partners | — | — |
| Sep 9 | Bernstein | $426 | −0.4% |
| Sep 7 | RBC Capital | $435 | +1.7% |
| Sep 4 | Bernstein | $426 | −0.4% |
+1.4%average 20-day move after past Neutral readings
0.0%average move over the next 20 trading days in the last 5 years
±3.2%typical daily move, from the 14-day average range
Gekko doesn’t publish price predictions. These are analyst targets and historical base rates, which don’t guarantee future results.
HCA Healthcare seasonality: the next 20 trading days
Over the next 20 trading days from Sep 19, HCA Healthcare averaged 0.0% across the last 5 years, rising in 2 of them.
Next 20 trading days, by year
Average move and hit rate
| Window | Average | Years higher |
|---|---|---|
| Next 5 trading days | −1.3% | 3 of 5 |
| Next 10 trading days | −1.5% | 2 of 5 |
| Next 15 trading days | −2.4% | 1 of 5 |
| Next 20 trading days | 0.0% | 2 of 5 |
| Next 30 trading days | −0.8% | 2 of 5 |
For scale, HCA’s typical 20-trading-day move in either direction is about 5.9%.
HCA Healthcare market cap and key statistics
HCA Healthcare’s market cap is $92.60B, with a P/E ratio of 14.4 and revenue of $78.01B over the last twelve months.
Valuation
- Market cap
- $92.60B
- P/E ratio
- 14.4
- Forward P/E
- 13.6
- EPS, TTM
- $29.73
- Gekko Fair Value
- $388.07
Trading
- Volume
- 5.36M
- Avg volume, 20 days
- 1.53M
- 52-week high
- $556.52
- 52-week low
- $353.99
- Shares outstanding
- 221.8M
Financials
- Revenue, TTM
- $78.01B
- Profit margin
- 8.8%
- Return on equity
- 136.3%
- Quarterly earnings growth, YoY
- +11.6%
Risk and income
- Beta
- 1.11
- Typical daily move
- ±3.2%
- Typical 20-day move
- ±5.9%
- Dividend yield
- 0.70%
HCA Healthcare stock news this week
Coverage of HCA Healthcare this week reads positive: 9 positive, 4 neutral and 0 negative headlines.
- HCA Healthcare Sees Solid Demand as Exchange Headwinds Pressure 2026 OutlookYahoo Finance, Sep 18
- HCA Healthcare Foundation awards $25,000 grant to Feeding Southwest VirginiaWSET, Sep 17
- INVESTOR ALERT: Pomerantz Law Firm Investigates Claims On Behalf of Investors of HCA Healthcare, Inc. - HCAPRNewsWire, Sep 17
- Bank of America Corp DE Makes New Investment in HCA Healthcare, Inc. $HCADefense World, Sep 17
- Alluvium Increases HCA Healthcare (HCA) Holdings After Its 17.5% SelloffYahoo Finance, Sep 16
- HCA Healthcare, Inc. (HCA) Presents at 2026 Jefferies Healthcare Services and Technology Conference TranscriptSeeking Alpha, Sep 16
HCA Healthcare peers
HCA Healthcare’s 6 largest industry peers by market value, with today’s move, GekkoIndex zone and gap to Gekko Fair Value.
| Stock | GekkoIndex zone | vs Fair Value |
|---|---|---|
| THCTenet Healthcare | Neutral | 8.8% below |
| UHSUniversal Health Services | Neutral | 22.7% below |
| PACSPACS | Accumulation | 16.4% below |
| CHEChemed | Accumulation | 7.3% below |
| NHCNational HealthCare | Neutral | 25.7% above |
| BKDBrookdale Senior Living | Buying | 20.8% below |
A peer links to its own page where one exists.
HCA Healthcare stock FAQ
What is HCA Healthcare’s market cap?
HCA Healthcare’s market cap is $92.60B at the Sep 18, 2026 close of $427.71, with 221.8M shares outstanding. The shares trade on a P/E ratio of 14.4.
What is the HCA Healthcare stock forecast?
The consensus analyst 12-month price target for HCA Healthcare is $452.67, +5.8% from the last close. Of the 21 firms that rated the stock in the last 90 days, 13 rate it a buy, 7 a hold and 1 a sell. Gekko doesn’t publish price predictions of its own.
Is HCA Healthcare stock overvalued or undervalued?
On Gekko’s estimate HCA Healthcare is overvalued: the Sep 18, 2026 close of $427.71 is 10.2% above Gekko Fair Value of $388.07. Gekko Fair Value is recalculated every trading day, and a gap inside 5% either way counts as about fair value.
When does HCA Healthcare report earnings next?
HCA Healthcare is expected to report on Oct 23, 2026 (33 days away). Analysts expect earnings of $6.71 per share on revenue of $19.35B. HCA Healthcare beat the earnings estimate in 6 of its last 8 reports, moving 4.4% on average across the report.
What is HCA Healthcare’s 52-week high and low?
HCA Healthcare’s 52-week high is $556.52 and its 52-week low is $353.99; it closed at $427.71 on Sep 18, 2026, +7.1% over the past year.
Is HCA Healthcare stock a buy right now?
Gekko describes the data; it does not make buy or sell recommendations. On the swing-trade checklist, 1 of the 5 items with data read as supportive (earnings risk), 3 as mixed (trend, gekkoindex and seasonality) and 1 as a headwind (fair value). The checklist is a description of current data, not a recommendation.
How this page works
Prices and signals update after every US market close; the GekkoIndex, Gekko Fair Value and the checklist are Gekko’s own, and the Gekko Brief is written by AI from this page’s data and checked against it before it is published. How Gekko’s data works →
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