NASDAQ: EXLS

ExlService (EXLS) Stock Analysis & Forecast

Sep 28 close

$34.60−0.15 (−0.4%)

Gekko Brief

AI summary

This week's coverage centers on a valuation debate around ExlService, with some models suggesting the stock is undervalued while a widely cited narrative deems it overvalued by 91.1%. A separate piece offered a general overview of the company's business segments, price history and analyst ratings, without new operational developments.

EXLS closed at $34.60, down 0.4%, sitting between its 50-day average of $34.66 and 200-day average of $33.16. Over the past month the stock is down 9.4%, though it remains up 35.3% over three months and 16% over six months, while the one-year return stands at -19.9%. The GekkoIndex reads 62.8, placing the stock in the Accumulation zone, up 2.7 over five days. Shares trade 23.5% below Gekko Fair Value of $45.22.

Earnings are scheduled for 27 October 2026, 28 days out, following a Q1 report in which EPS of $0.58 beat the $0.54 estimate and produced a 2.7% reaction; the company has beaten estimates in 8 of the last 8 quarters, with an average absolute reaction of 4.1%. Over the last 30 days, options activity shows 1 unusual signal, with put premium of $636,428 and no call premium recorded. Seasonality over 5 years shows an average 20-day return of 0.2% from this point, rising in 2 of those years. Analyst coverage from 8 firms is unanimously rated buy, with a consensus target of $44.62.

Written by AI and checked automatically against the figures on this page. Generated Sep 29, 2026 from the data above.

ExlService price vs fair value

$45.22$34.60Sep ’25Mar ’26Sep ’26
Close $34.60200-day averageGekko Fair Value $45.22

ExlService quick facts

Market cap
$5.25B
P/E ratio
22
Forward P/E
13.6
EPS, TTM
$1.58
Revenue, TTM
$2.24B
Profit margin
11.2%
Dividend yield
—
Beta
0.81
Volume
2.35M avg 1.89M
1-year return
−19.9%
Typical daily move
±2.5%
Typical 20-day move
±5%
50-day average
$34.66
200-day average
$33.16
Next earnings
Oct 27
Shares outstanding
151.6M
52-week range
$24.85$44.32

ExlService swing-trade checklist

ExlService scores 2 supportive, 2 mixed and 2 headwinds across the 6 checklist items with data.

Six things swing traders check before a 20-day hold, read from the latest data.

2 supportive2 mixed2 headwinds

  • Trendmixed

    Averages disagree

    Close $34.60 sits between the 50-day ($34.66) and 200-day ($33.16) averages, or the averages disagree.

    See the chart
  • GekkoIndexsupportive

    62.8, Accumulation

    Reading 62.8 is in the Accumulation zone.

    See the GekkoIndex
  • Fair valuesupportive

    23.5% below

    Price is 23.5% below Gekko Fair Value (more than 5% below).

    See fair value
  • Smart moneyheadwind

    Leans bearish

    Last 30 days: 1 unusual options signal.

    See smart money
  • Earnings riskheadwind

    Reports in 28 days

    Reports on Oct 27, 2026, 28 days away — inside a typical 20-trading-day hold.

    See earnings
  • Seasonalitymixed

    +0.2% on average

    From this point in the calendar, the next 20 trading days averaged +0.2% over 5 years, rising in 2 of them.

    See seasonality

A description of current data, not a recommendation. How this page works

ExlService stock chart and price history

ExlService closed at $34.60 on Sep 28, 2026, −19.9% over the past year, inside a 52-week range of $24.85 to $44.32.

Close50-day average200-day averageVolume
ExlService share price, past year, with 50-day and 200-day moving averages and volume$25$30$40$45NovDecJan 2026FebMarAprMayJunJulAugSep34.60

Use the left and right arrow keys to read daily values.

Performance Breakdown

1 month
−9.4%
3 months
+35.3%
6 months
+16.0%
1 year
−19.9%
The full EXLS chart adds GekkoIndex, insider, options, Congress and hedge fund markers, plus TrendCandles™.Open EXLS in Gekko

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About ExlService

ExlService provides data analytics and digital operations services to organizations in the United States and abroad. It is best known for helping insurers modernize their operations, offering tools that cover claims handling, underwriting support, premium and benefits administration, policy servicing, audits, and customer support, built on digital technology, artificial intelligence, and automation. Within this space it also runs SaaS platforms such as LifePRO and LISS for customer acquisition, and Subrosource for subrogation work.

The company organizes its business into segments covering insurance, healthcare, analytics, and emerging areas. Its healthcare offerings include the CareRadius care management system along with services such as utilization review, disease management, payment accuracy, and revenue support, serving payers, providers, pharmacy benefit managers, and life sciences firms. Across its broader analytics work, ExlService applies predictive and prescriptive methods to areas like customer lifecycle management, risk pricing, operational efficiency, and data governance.

ExlService was established in 1999 and is headquartered in New York, New York. Its shares are listed on the NASDAQ under the ticker EXLS.

Listed
NASDAQ
Sector
Technology services
Industry
Data processing services
Website
exlservice.com

ExlService GekkoIndex: the smart money zone

ExlService’s GekkoIndex — Gekko’s 0 to 100 smart money score — reads 62.8, in the Accumulation zone, up 2.7 points over five sessions.

010062.8Accumulation

Up 2.7 points over five sessions.

Reading for Sep 28, 2026

What followed past readings in each zone

ZoneReadings5 days10 days20 days50 days
Buying31+0.9%+1.6%+2.9%+12.2%
Accumulation (current zone)224+0.3%+0.5%+1.8%+2.5%
Neutral3650.0%+0.1%0.0%+0.4%
Distribution46+0.4%+1.1%+1.9%+1.9%
Selling6Too few readings yet

Average EXLS share-price change over the trading days after each daily reading in its GekkoIndex history. Across every stock Gekko tracks, Accumulation readings averaged +2.3% over 20 days. Past behaviour doesn’t guarantee future results.

Accumulation zone: Institutional interest building. About the five zones →

See every daily GekkoIndex reading plotted over the EXLS price, zone by zone.Track EXLS in Gekko

Is ExlService stock overvalued? Gekko Fair Value

ExlService trades 23.5% below Gekko Fair Value of $45.22, so the shares are undervalued on Gekko’s estimate.

Gekko’s own estimate of what ExlService shares are worth, recalculated every trading day.

$45.22

Gekko Fair Value, Sep 29, 2026

23.5% Undervalued

How Gekko Fair Value works →

Gekko Fair Value on every chart, with the gap to price updating daily.Open EXLS in Gekko

ExlService insider and Congress trading

No open-market insider purchases were filed for ExlService, and no Congress trades were disclosed, in the last 90 days.

Plus buybacks, unusual options and fund positions, each dated to when it became public.

Insider buying last 90 days

No open-market insider purchases were filed for EXLS in the last 90 days.

From Form 4 filings, dated to when each was filed.

Every EXLS insider filing, plotted on the chart in Gekko.Open EXLS in Gekko

Congress trades last 90 days

No trades in EXLS were disclosed by members of Congress in the last 90 days.

From congressional disclosures, which report amounts as ranges.

Congress disclosures for EXLS, plotted on the chart in Gekko.Open EXLS in Gekko

Buybacks

ExlService has been buying back its own shares.

Bought back, quarter ended Jun 30, 2026
$20.62M
As a share of market cap
0.39%
Trailing four quarters
$455.4M

From company filings.

Unusual options activity last 30 days

1signal, 0% of the flagged premium in calls.

Latest: Bearish flow on Sep 17, $636K in unusual premium.

Every signal with its contract, strike and premium.Unlock in Gekko

ExlService earnings: next date and track record

ExlService reports on Oct 27, 2026 (28 days away), and beat the EPS estimate in 8 of its last 8 reports.

8 of 8reports beat the EPS estimate
±4.1%average move across the report
6 of 8reports followed by a gain

Share-price move across each report

−3.5%Aug ’24+7.5%Oct ’24+0.9%Feb ’25+9.0%Apr ’25+1.4%Jul ’25−7.1%Oct ’25+0.6%Feb ’26+2.7%Apr ’26

Last earnings call, Apr 28, 2026 AI summary

What they said
EXL reported Q1 2026 revenue of $570 million, up 14% YoY, with adjusted EPS of $0.58, up 20% YoY. Data and AI-led revenues grew 28% YoY, representing 60% of total revenue. Insurance segment grew 13% YoY and Healthcare & Life Sciences grew 21% YoY. The company is executing a deliberate migration of digital operations engagements into data and AI-led categories as AI embeds into client workflows.
Guidance
Management signaled continued double-digit growth momentum driven by accelerating AI adoption across clients. The planned shift from digital operations to data and AI-led revenue is expected to continue, with digital operations revenue expected to remain pressured by design.
ReportedEPSSurpriseRevenueSurpriseMove
Apr 28, 2026$0.58
est $0.54
+7.4%$570.4M
est $557.7M
+2.3%+2.7%
Feb 24, 2026$0.50
est $0.47
+7.5%$542.6M
est $531.2M
+2.1%+0.6%
Oct 28, 2025$0.48
est $0.47
+3.2%$529.6M
est $522.3M
+1.4%−7.1%
Jul 29, 2025$0.49
est $0.45
+8.9%$514.5M
est $519.4M
−0.9%+1.4%
Apr 29, 2025$0.48
est $0.45
+6.7%$501.0M
est $502.7M
−0.3%+9.0%
Feb 25, 2025$0.44
est $0.42
+5.9%$481.4M
est $475.7M
+1.2%+0.9%
Oct 29, 2024$0.44
est $0.41
+7.3%$472.1M
est $476.3M
−0.9%+7.5%
Aug 1, 2024$0.40
est $0.39
+2.6%$448.4M
est $444.7M
+0.8%−3.5%

“Move” is the close of the first session after the report compared with the close of the last session before it, so it reads the same whether the company reported before the open or after the close.

ExlService stock forecast and analyst price targets

Analysts’ average 12-month price target for ExlService is $44.62, +29.0% from the last close, from 8 firms rating the stock in the last 90 days.

$44.62consensus 12-month target, +29.0% from the last close
Low $39High $48
Buy8
Hold0
Sell0

Each firm’s latest rating in the last 90 days: 8 firms.

Latest analyst actions

DateFirmRatingTargetvs price
Sep 8William BlairBuy, maintained——
Aug 27TD CowenBuy, maintained$45+30.1%
Aug 27TD CowenBuy, reiterated$45+30.1%
Jul 31JefferiesBuy, reiterated$39+12.7%
Jul 30Robert W. BairdBuy, upgraded$45+30.1%
+1.8%average 20-day move after past Accumulation readings
+0.2%average move over the next 20 trading days in the last 5 years
±2.5%typical daily move, from the 14-day average range

Gekko doesn’t publish price predictions. These are analyst targets and historical base rates, which don’t guarantee future results.

ExlService seasonality: the next 20 trading days

Over the next 20 trading days from Sep 29, ExlService averaged +0.2% across the last 5 years, rising in 2 of them.

Next 20 trading days, by year

−2.6%2021+15.8%2022−8.6%2023+1.5%2024−5.7%2025

Average move and hit rate

WindowAverageYears higher
Next 5 trading days+1.8%3 of 5
Next 10 trading days+1.2%3 of 5
Next 15 trading days+0.5%2 of 5
Next 20 trading days+0.2%2 of 5
Next 30 trading days+8.4%3 of 5

For scale, EXLS’s typical 20-trading-day move in either direction is about 5%.

ExlService market cap and key statistics

ExlService’s market cap is $5.25B, with a P/E ratio of 22 and revenue of $2.24B over the last twelve months.

Valuation

Market cap
$5.25B
P/E ratio
22
Forward P/E
13.6
EPS, TTM
$1.58
Gekko Fair Value
$45.22

Trading

Volume
2.35M
Avg volume, 20 days
1.89M
52-week high
$44.32
52-week low
$24.85
Shares outstanding
151.6M

Financials

Revenue, TTM
$2.24B
Profit margin
11.2%
Return on equity
25.9%
Quarterly earnings growth, YoY
+5.0%

Risk and income

Beta
0.81
Typical daily move
±2.5%
Typical 20-day move
±5%

ExlService stock news this week

3 headlines about ExlService from the past week, newest first, each linking to the publisher.

ExlService peers

ExlService’s 6 largest industry peers by market value, with today’s move, GekkoIndex zone and gap to Gekko Fair Value.

StockTodayGekkoIndex zonevs Fair Value
PAYXPaychex−0.8%Buying24.5% below
VRSKVerisk Analytics−0.6%Accumulation27.1% below
JJacobs Solutions+0.7%Accumulation6.2% above
AKAMAkamai Technologies−3.4%Neutral15.4% below
IRENIREN−3.8%Neutral24.3% below
TYLTyler Technologies+1.0%Accumulation15.0% below

A peer links to its own page where one exists.

In the Buying zone today

Reporting earnings this week

Popular on Gekko

ExlService stock FAQ

What is ExlService’s market cap?

ExlService’s market cap is $5.25B at the Sep 28, 2026 close of $34.60, with 151.6M shares outstanding. The shares trade on a P/E ratio of 22.

What is the ExlService stock forecast?

The consensus analyst 12-month price target for ExlService is $44.62, +29.0% from the last close. Of the 8 firms that rated the stock in the last 90 days, 8 rate it a buy, 0 a hold and 0 a sell. Gekko doesn’t publish price predictions of its own.

Is ExlService stock overvalued or undervalued?

On Gekko’s estimate ExlService is undervalued: the Sep 28, 2026 close of $34.60 is 23.5% below Gekko Fair Value of $45.22. Gekko Fair Value is recalculated every trading day, and a gap inside 5% either way counts as about fair value.

When does ExlService report earnings next?

ExlService is expected to report on Oct 27, 2026 (28 days away). Analysts expect earnings of $0.56 per share on revenue of $615.3M. ExlService beat the earnings estimate in 8 of its last 8 reports, moving 4.1% on average across the report.

What is ExlService’s 52-week high and low?

ExlService’s 52-week high is $44.32 and its 52-week low is $24.85; it closed at $34.60 on Sep 28, 2026, −19.9% over the past year. Over the last five years the shares peaked at $52.43 on Feb 7, 2025.

Is ExlService stock a buy right now?

Gekko describes the data; it does not make buy or sell recommendations. On the swing-trade checklist, 2 of the 6 items with data read as supportive (gekkoindex and fair value), 2 as mixed (trend and seasonality) and 2 as headwinds (smart money and earnings risk). The checklist is a description of current data, not a recommendation.

Is there unusual options activity in ExlService?

Gekko flagged 1 unusual options signal in ExlService over the last 30 days, with $0 of flagged premium in calls and $636K in puts. The latest, bearish flow, was on Sep 17, 2026 with $636K in unusual premium. The signal-by-signal table is in Gekko.

How this page works

During US trading hours the price at the top of the page is a delayed quote, refreshed every 15 minutes; everything else is rebuilt after each US market close. The GekkoIndex, Gekko Fair Value and the checklist are Gekko’s own, and the Gekko Brief is written by AI from this page’s data and checked against it before it is published. How Gekko’s data works →

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