NYSE: ETSY

Etsy (ETSY) Stock Analysis & Forecast

Sep 28 close

$68.92+0.48 (+0.7%)

Gekko Brief

AI summary

Etsy shares moved lower this week after a string of analyst actions and a weak consumer read-through. Arete Research downgraded the stock from Buy to Hold (also described as Buy to Neutral), cutting its price target to $81.00 and citing valuation, competition, and seller retention risks, while Citi separately downgraded the stock from buy to neutral on concerns about a weakening consumer backdrop affecting discretionary spending. This came despite Q2 revenue beating expectations at $668.31 million, with shares closing at $68.44 on 25 September and having slipped as much as 7.6% intraday on 24 September.

Etsy closed at $68.92, up 0.7%, sitting between its 50-day average of $79.20 and 200-day average of $65.32, with the stock down 16.9% over one month but up 8.4% over one year. The GekkoIndex reads 71.3, placing it in the Buying zone, and the price sits 8.8% below Gekko Fair Value of $75.57.

Etsy's next earnings report is set for 4 November 2026, 36 days out and beyond a typical 20-day holding window; the prior report on 5 August beat estimates ($0.98 versus $0.77) but still produced a -4.8% reaction. Options activity shows 2 unusual signals over the last 30 days, with call premium of $982,640 and no put premium. Seasonality over 5 years shows an average 20-day return of 6.1%, positive in 4 of those years.

Written by AI and checked automatically against the figures on this page. Generated Sep 29, 2026 from the data above.

Etsy price vs fair value

$75.57$68.92Sep ’25Mar ’26Sep ’26
Close $68.92200-day averageGekko Fair Value $75.57

Etsy quick facts

Market cap
$6.54B
P/E ratio
21.7
Forward P/E
14.9
EPS, TTM
$3.16
Revenue, TTM
$2.94B
Profit margin
7.1%
Dividend yield
—
Beta
1.81
Volume
2.63M avg 3.32M
1-year return
+8.4%
Typical daily move
±4.3%
Typical 20-day move
±9.5%
50-day average
$79.20
200-day average
$65.32
Next earnings
Nov 4
Shares outstanding
91.78M
52-week range
$44.00$87.97

Etsy swing-trade checklist

Etsy scores 5 supportive, 1 mixed and 0 headwinds across the 6 checklist items with data.

Six things swing traders check before a 20-day hold, read from the latest data.

5 supportive1 mixed0 headwinds

  • Trendmixed

    Averages disagree

    Close $68.92 sits between the 50-day ($79.20) and 200-day ($65.32) averages, or the averages disagree.

    See the chart
  • GekkoIndexsupportive

    71.3, Buying

    Reading 71.3 is in the Buying zone.

    See the GekkoIndex
  • Fair valuesupportive

    8.8% below

    Price is 8.8% below Gekko Fair Value (more than 5% below).

    See fair value
  • Smart moneysupportive

    Leans bullish

    Last 30 days: 2 unusual options signals.

    See smart money
  • Earnings risksupportive

    Reports in 36 days

    Next report Nov 4, 2026, 36 days away — outside a typical 20-trading-day hold.

    See earnings
  • Seasonalitysupportive

    +6.1% on average

    From this point in the calendar, the next 20 trading days averaged +6.1% over 5 years, rising in 4 of them.

    See seasonality

A description of current data, not a recommendation. How this page works

Etsy stock chart and price history

Etsy closed at $68.92 on Sep 28, 2026, +8.4% over the past year, inside a 52-week range of $44.00 to $87.97.

Close50-day average200-day averageVolume
Etsy share price, past year, with 50-day and 200-day moving averages and volume$50$60$80NovDecJan 2026FebMarAprMayJunJulAugSep68.92

Use the left and right arrow keys to read daily values.

Performance Breakdown

1 month
−16.9%
3 months
−13.5%
6 months
+45.7%
1 year
+8.4%
The full ETSY chart adds GekkoIndex, insider, options, Congress and hedge fund markers, plus TrendCandles™.Open ETSY in Gekko

Follow Etsy through every session

Put ETSY on a Gekko watchlist and see its GekkoIndex, Gekko Fair Value and smart money signals update on the chart as they change.

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About Etsy

Etsy connects independent sellers with buyers around the world through online marketplaces. Its main site centers on handmade and one-of-a-kind goods, while a separate arm, Depop, serves shoppers looking to buy and sell secondhand clothing. The company has built its name around giving small-scale makers and resellers a platform to reach customers well beyond their local area.

Money comes in through a mix of marketplace charges, including fees tied to listing items, completing sales, and processing payments, along with advertising placements and extra tools sellers can pay for, such as shipping labels. Etsy also runs programs that help listings surface higher in search results, protect buyers on eligible purchases, and reward sellers whose own marketing brings traffic to the site.

The company is headquartered in Brooklyn, New York, and traces its start to 2005, with formal incorporation following in 2006 under the name Indieco before it adopted the Etsy name later that year. Its shares trade on the NYSE under the ticker ETSY.

Listed
NYSE
Sector
Retail trade
Industry
Internet retail
Website
etsy.com

Etsy GekkoIndex: the smart money zone

Etsy’s GekkoIndex — Gekko’s 0 to 100 smart money score — reads 71.3, in the Buying zone, up 3.5 points over five sessions.

010071.3Buying

Up 3.5 points over five sessions, from the Accumulation zone.

Reading for Sep 28, 2026

What followed past readings in each zone

ZoneReadings5 days10 days20 days50 days
Buying (current zone)14+5.8%+7.5%+7.8%+16.9%
Accumulation276+1.0%+1.3%+3.4%+3.0%
Neutral344−0.4%0.0%−1.0%+0.9%
Distribution29−1.0%−3.7%−3.9%+4.1%
Selling9Too few readings yet

Average ETSY share-price change over the trading days after each daily reading in its GekkoIndex history. Across every stock Gekko tracks, Buying readings averaged +3.2% over 20 days. Past behaviour doesn’t guarantee future results.

Buying zone: Smart money likely accumulating heavily. About the five zones →

See every daily GekkoIndex reading plotted over the ETSY price, zone by zone.Track ETSY in Gekko

Is Etsy stock overvalued? Gekko Fair Value

Etsy trades 8.8% below Gekko Fair Value of $75.57, so the shares are undervalued on Gekko’s estimate.

Gekko’s own estimate of what Etsy shares are worth, recalculated every trading day.

$75.57

Gekko Fair Value, Sep 29, 2026

8.8% Undervalued

How Gekko Fair Value works →

Gekko Fair Value on every chart, with the gap to price updating daily.Open ETSY in Gekko

Etsy insider and Congress trading

No open-market insider purchases were filed for Etsy, and no Congress trades were disclosed, in the last 90 days.

Plus buybacks, unusual options and fund positions, each dated to when it became public.

Insider buying last 90 days

No open-market insider purchases were filed for ETSY in the last 90 days.

From Form 4 filings, dated to when each was filed.

Every ETSY insider filing, plotted on the chart in Gekko.Open ETSY in Gekko

Congress trades last 90 days

No trades in ETSY were disclosed by members of Congress in the last 90 days.

From congressional disclosures, which report amounts as ranges.

Congress disclosures for ETSY, plotted on the chart in Gekko.Open ETSY in Gekko

Buybacks

Etsy has been buying back its own shares.

Latest authorization
$2.00B, Aug 5, 2026
Bought back, quarter ended Jun 30, 2026
$394.9M
As a share of market cap
6.04%
Trailing four quarters
$793.2M

From company filings.

Unusual options activity last 30 days

2signals, 100% of the flagged premium in calls.

Latest: Bullish flow on Sep 22, $732K in unusual premium.

Hedge funds and billionaires quarter ended Mar 31

0of the funds Gekko tracks hold ETSY.

0added0opened0trimmed2sold out
Every signal with its contract, strike and premium, and which funds are on each side.Unlock in Gekko

Etsy earnings: next date and track record

Etsy reports on Nov 4, 2026 (36 days away), and beat the EPS estimate in 6 of its last 8 reports.

6 of 8reports beat the EPS estimate
±9%average move across the report
3 of 8reports followed by a gain

Share-price move across each report

+8.3%Oct ’24−10.3%Feb ’25−7.8%Apr ’25−3.4%Jul ’25−17.2%Oct ’25+18.5%Feb ’26+1.8%Apr ’26−4.8%Aug ’26

Last earnings call, Aug 5, 2026 AI summary

What they said
Etsy reported strong Q2 2026 operating performance with accelerating GMS and revenue growth, improved take rate and healthy profitability. Management emphasized progress against four strategic priorities (discovery/matching, loyalty, human connection), product and marketing improvements driving higher-quality traffic and conversion, and increased investment in machine learning and personalization. Marketplace GMS for Etsy standalone was $2.6B (up 7.5% YoY), revenue was $668M, take rate 25.9%, and adjusted EBITDA was $195M (29.2% margin). The company completed the sale of Depop (receiving $1.4B), announced an improved outlook for 2026 and a $2B share repurchase authorization, and reiterated disciplined capital allocation including high free cash flow conversion. Management discussed product/marketing wins (SEO, PLA segmentation, social/creator partnerships), app engagement gains, buyer profile expansion (65M buyers), and AI/ML investments focused on discovery. They also explained a reorganization (headcount reductions in product & engineering) to simplify teams and concentrate talent. Overall tone was confident and forward-looking, with measured commentary on risks (macroeconomic pressures, regulatory changes like de minimis, compute costs) and an emphasis on execution and reinvestment in areas with proven ROI.
Guidance
Management referenced an improved outlook for 2026 (no specific numeric guidance disclosed on the call) and announced a new $2.0 billion share repurchase authorization. They signaled continued investment behind discovery, matching and personalization (ML/AI), intention to reinvest some reorganization savings into engineering/product/customer operations, and that they do not currently see an immediate use for Depop sale proceeds beyond buybacks and returning capital to shareholders.
Risks flagged
Risks/Headwinds mentioned include: workforce reductions and execution risk from reorganizing product & engineering teams; potential pressures from compute/AI hosting costs (though management said they can manage them); macro variables such as tariffs, gas prices and broader consumer spending; regulatory changes (EU de minimis rule) and cross-border trade complexities; comparability issues due to recent disposals (Depop, Reverb) affecting year-over-year comparisons.
ReportedEPSSurpriseRevenueSurpriseMove
Aug 5, 2026$0.98
est $0.77
+27.3%$668.3M
est $646.1M
+3.4%−4.8%
Apr 29, 2026$0.60
est $0.46
+30.8%$631.3M
est $621.4M
+1.6%+1.8%
Feb 19, 2026$0.92
est $0.85
+8.2%$881.6M
est $884.3M
−0.3%+18.5%
Oct 29, 2025$0.63
est $0.52
+21.2%$678.0M
est $884.0M
−23.3%−17.2%
Jul 30, 2025$0.25
est $0.49
−49.0%$672.7M
est $646.9M
+4.0%−3.4%
Apr 30, 2025$1.21
est $1.01
+19.8%$651.2M
est $643.4M
+1.2%−7.8%
Feb 19, 2025$1.03
est $0.94
+9.6%$852.2M
est $650.6M
+31.0%−10.3%
Oct 30, 2024$0.45
est $0.53
−15.1%$662.4M
est $862.7M
−23.2%+8.3%

“Move” is the close of the first session after the report compared with the close of the last session before it, so it reads the same whether the company reported before the open or after the close.

Etsy stock forecast and analyst price targets

Analysts’ average 12-month price target for Etsy is $88.19, +28.0% from the last close, from 25 firms rating the stock in the last 90 days.

$88.19consensus 12-month target, +28.0% from the last close
Low $73High $105
Buy12
Hold12
Sell1

Each firm’s latest rating in the last 90 days: 25 firms.

Latest analyst actions

DateFirmRatingTargetvs price
Sep 28BernsteinHold, maintained$95+37.8%
Sep 24Wells FargoSell, maintained$76+10.3%
Sep 24Arete ResearchHold, downgraded$81+17.5%
Sep 18BTIGBuy, upgraded$90+30.6%
Sep 16Truist FinancialBuy, maintained——
+7.8%average 20-day move after past Buying readings
+6.1%average move over the next 20 trading days in the last 5 years
±4.3%typical daily move, from the 14-day average range

Gekko doesn’t publish price predictions. These are analyst targets and historical base rates, which don’t guarantee future results.

Etsy seasonality: the next 20 trading days

Over the next 20 trading days from Sep 26, Etsy averaged +6.1% across the last 5 years, rising in 4 of them.

Next 20 trading days, by year

+11.9%2021+8.2%2022+4.4%2023−12.8%2024+15.1%2025

Average move and hit rate

WindowAverageYears higher
Next 5 trading days+1.5%3 of 5
Next 10 trading days+1.6%3 of 5
Next 15 trading days+4.9%4 of 5
Next 20 trading days+6.1%4 of 5
Next 30 trading days+3.0%3 of 5

For scale, ETSY’s typical 20-trading-day move in either direction is about 9.5%.

Etsy market cap and key statistics

Etsy’s market cap is $6.54B, with a P/E ratio of 21.7 and revenue of $2.94B over the last twelve months.

Valuation

Market cap
$6.54B
P/E ratio
21.7
Forward P/E
14.9
EPS, TTM
$3.16
Gekko Fair Value
$75.57

Trading

Volume
2.63M
Avg volume, 20 days
3.32M
52-week high
$87.97
52-week low
$44.00
Shares outstanding
91.78M

Financials

Revenue, TTM
$2.94B
Profit margin
7.1%
Return on equity
-1224%
Quarterly earnings growth, YoY
−7.1%

Risk and income

Beta
1.81
Typical daily move
±4.3%
Typical 20-day move
±9.5%

Etsy stock news this week

Coverage of Etsy this week reads negative: 1 positive, 2 neutral and 5 negative headlines.

News sentiment negative

Etsy peers

Etsy’s 6 largest industry peers by market value, with today’s move, GekkoIndex zone and gap to Gekko Fair Value.

StockTodayGekkoIndex zonevs Fair Value
AMZNAmazon.com−0.2%Accumulation1.5% below
MELIMercadoLibre−0.8%Buying1.9% below
EBAYeBay−0.2%Neutral11.1% above
CPNGCoupang−0.4%Buying26.6% below
CHWYChewy+2.3%Buying19.6% below
GLBEGlobal-E Online−0.7%Neutral10.3% below

A peer links to its own page where one exists.

In the Buying zone today

Reporting earnings this week

Popular on Gekko

Etsy stock FAQ

What is Etsy’s market cap?

Etsy’s market cap is $6.54B at the Sep 28, 2026 close of $68.92, with 91.78M shares outstanding. The shares trade on a P/E ratio of 21.7.

What is the Etsy stock forecast?

The consensus analyst 12-month price target for Etsy is $88.19, +28.0% from the last close. Of the 25 firms that rated the stock in the last 90 days, 12 rate it a buy, 12 a hold and 1 a sell. Gekko doesn’t publish price predictions of its own.

Is Etsy stock overvalued or undervalued?

On Gekko’s estimate Etsy is undervalued: the Sep 28, 2026 close of $68.92 is 8.8% below Gekko Fair Value of $75.57. Gekko Fair Value is recalculated every trading day, and a gap inside 5% either way counts as about fair value.

When does Etsy report earnings next?

Etsy is expected to report on Nov 4, 2026 (36 days away). Analysts expect earnings of $1.31 per share on revenue of $668.0M. Etsy beat the earnings estimate in 6 of its last 8 reports, moving 9% on average across the report.

What is Etsy’s 52-week high and low?

Etsy’s 52-week high is $87.97 and its 52-week low is $44.00; it closed at $68.92 on Sep 28, 2026, +8.4% over the past year. Over the last five years the shares peaked at $307.75 on Nov 26, 2021.

Is Etsy stock a buy right now?

Gekko describes the data; it does not make buy or sell recommendations. On the swing-trade checklist, 5 of the 6 items with data read as supportive (gekkoindex, fair value, smart money, earnings risk and seasonality), 1 as mixed (trend). The checklist is a description of current data, not a recommendation.

Is there unusual options activity in Etsy?

Gekko flagged 2 unusual options signals in Etsy over the last 30 days, with $983K of flagged premium in calls and $0 in puts. The latest, bullish flow, was on Sep 22, 2026 with $732K in unusual premium. The signal-by-signal table is in Gekko.

How this page works

During US trading hours the price at the top of the page is a delayed quote, refreshed every 15 minutes; everything else is rebuilt after each US market close. The GekkoIndex, Gekko Fair Value and the checklist are Gekko’s own, and the Gekko Brief is written by AI from this page’s data and checked against it before it is published. How Gekko’s data works →

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