NYSE: ELF

e.l.f. Beauty (ELF) Stock Analysis & Forecast

Sep 28 close

$101.80+2.29 (+2.3%)

Gekko Brief

AI summary

ELF shares have drawn attention this week on a mix of growth commentary and technical setup discussion, with one piece framing the stock as combining fundamental expansion with a chart pattern suggesting a potential breakout. Coverage also compared e.l.f. Beauty's high-growth, value-driven prestige cosmetics model against a peer in the consumer goods space. An insider, Mandy Fields, sold $1.7 million in stock on 8 September as part of a pre-established Rule 10b5-1 trading plan.

The stock closed at $101.80, up 2.3%, sitting above both its 50-day average of $94.99 and 200-day average of $77.78, with the shorter average above the longer one. The GekkoIndex reads 54.7, placing it in the Neutral zone. Price stands 27.2% above Gekko Fair Value of $80.01.

The next earnings report is set for 4 November, 36 days out and beyond a typical 20-day holding window; the prior report on 5 August showed EPS of $1.75 against a $0.71 estimate, with a 5.1% reaction, part of a streak of 7 beats in 8 quarters. Over the last 30 days, 2 unusual options signals appeared, with put premium of $777,450 against call premium of $456,329. Seasonality from this point has averaged a 1.4% gain over the next 20 trading days across 5 years, rising in 2 of them. Analyst consensus stands at 12 buy and 5 hold ratings among 17 firms, with a consensus target of $102.12.

Written by AI and checked automatically against the figures on this page. Generated Sep 29, 2026 from the data above.

e.l.f. Beauty price vs fair value

$101.80$80.01Sep ’25Mar ’26Sep ’26
Close $101.80200-day averageGekko Fair Value $80.01

e.l.f. Beauty quick facts

Market cap
$6.00B
P/E ratio
101.5
Forward P/E
35.2
EPS, TTM
$0.98
Revenue, TTM
$1.76B
Profit margin
3.4%
Dividend yield
—
Beta
1.60
Volume
1.11M avg 1.43M
1-year return
−22.1%
Typical daily move
±4.1%
Typical 20-day move
±10.7%
50-day average
$94.99
200-day average
$77.78
Next earnings
Nov 4 after close
Shares outstanding
59.01M
52-week range
$48.82$147.75

e.l.f. Beauty swing-trade checklist

e.l.f. Beauty scores 2 supportive, 2 mixed and 2 headwinds across the 6 checklist items with data.

Six things swing traders check before a 20-day hold, read from the latest data.

2 supportive2 mixed2 headwinds

  • Trendsupportive

    Above 50 and 200-day

    Close $101.80 is above the 50-day ($94.99) and 200-day ($77.78) averages, and the 50-day is above the 200-day.

    See the chart
  • GekkoIndexmixed

    54.7, Neutral

    Reading 54.7 is in the Neutral zone.

    See the GekkoIndex
  • Fair valueheadwind

    27.2% above

    Price is 27.2% above Gekko Fair Value (more than 5% above).

    See fair value
  • Smart moneyheadwind

    Leans bearish

    Last 30 days: 2 unusual options signals.

    See smart money
  • Earnings risksupportive

    Reports in 36 days

    Next report Nov 4, 2026, 36 days away — outside a typical 20-trading-day hold.

    See earnings
  • Seasonalitymixed

    +1.4% on average

    From this point in the calendar, the next 20 trading days averaged +1.4% over 5 years, rising in 2 of them.

    See seasonality

A description of current data, not a recommendation. How this page works

e.l.f. Beauty stock chart and price history

e.l.f. Beauty closed at $101.80 on Sep 28, 2026, −22.1% over the past year, inside a 52-week range of $48.82 to $147.75.

Close50-day average200-day averageVolume
e.l.f. Beauty share price, past year, with 50-day and 200-day moving averages and volume$60$80$120$140NovDecJan 2026FebMarAprMayJunJulAugSep101.80

Use the left and right arrow keys to read daily values.

Performance Breakdown

1 month
−4.1%
3 months
+45.6%
6 months
+66.7%
1 year
−22.1%
The full ELF chart adds GekkoIndex, insider, options, Congress and hedge fund markers, plus TrendCandles™.Open ELF in Gekko

Follow e.l.f. Beauty through every session

Put ELF on a Gekko watchlist and see its GekkoIndex, Gekko Fair Value and smart money signals update on the chart as they change.

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About e.l.f. Beauty

e.l.f. Beauty makes cosmetics and skin care items, covering eye, lip, face and skin products, along with a paw care line. Its offerings reach customers worldwide and span several brand names, giving it a presence across different corners of the beauty market rather than a single product line.

The company operates under a handful of distinct brands, including e.l.f. Cosmetics, e.l.f. Skin, Well People, Naturium and Keys Soulcare. It reaches shoppers through retail partners both in the United States and abroad, as well as directly through its own online store, combining traditional retail distribution with a direct digital sales channel.

e.l.f. Beauty traces its start to 2004 and was originally called J.A. Cosmetics Holdings before adopting its current name in April 2016. The company is headquartered in Oakland, California, and its shares trade on the NYSE under the ticker ELF.

Listed
NYSE
Sector
Consumer non-durables
Industry
Household/Personal care
Website
elfbeauty.com

e.l.f. Beauty GekkoIndex: the smart money zone

e.l.f. Beauty’s GekkoIndex — Gekko’s 0 to 100 smart money score — reads 54.7, in the Neutral zone, down 3.8 points over five sessions.

010054.7Neutral

Down 3.8 points over five sessions.

Reading for Sep 28, 2026

What followed past readings in each zone

ZoneReadings5 days10 days20 days50 days
Buying78−1.2%−1.5%−0.6%+12.4%
Accumulation240−0.4%−2.0%−0.9%+11.9%
Neutral (current zone)315+0.5%+1.2%+0.8%−10.4%
Distribution38+3.0%+10.3%+15.4%+7.8%
Selling1Too few readings yet

Average ELF share-price change over the trading days after each daily reading in its GekkoIndex history. Across every stock Gekko tracks, Neutral readings averaged +1.1% over 20 days. Past behaviour doesn’t guarantee future results.

Neutral zone: No clear directional signal. About the five zones →

See every daily GekkoIndex reading plotted over the ELF price, zone by zone.Track ELF in Gekko

Is e.l.f. Beauty stock overvalued? Gekko Fair Value

e.l.f. Beauty trades 27.2% above Gekko Fair Value of $80.01, so the shares are overvalued on Gekko’s estimate.

Gekko’s own estimate of what e.l.f. Beauty shares are worth, recalculated every trading day.

$80.01

Gekko Fair Value, Sep 29, 2026

27.2% Overvalued

How Gekko Fair Value works →

Gekko Fair Value on every chart, with the gap to price updating daily.Open ELF in Gekko

e.l.f. Beauty insider and Congress trading

No open-market insider purchases were filed for e.l.f. Beauty, and no Congress trades were disclosed, in the last 90 days.

Plus buybacks, unusual options and fund positions, each dated to when it became public.

Insider buying last 90 days

No open-market insider purchases were filed for ELF in the last 90 days.

From Form 4 filings, dated to when each was filed.

Every ELF insider filing, plotted on the chart in Gekko.Open ELF in Gekko

Congress trades last 90 days

No trades in ELF were disclosed by members of Congress in the last 90 days.

From congressional disclosures, which report amounts as ranges.

Congress disclosures for ELF, plotted on the chart in Gekko.Open ELF in Gekko

Buybacks

e.l.f. Beauty has been buying back its own shares.

Bought back, quarter ended Jun 30, 2026
$49.98M
As a share of market cap
0.83%

From company filings.

Unusual options activity last 30 days

2signals, 37% of the flagged premium in calls.

Latest: Bullish flow on Sep 18, $438K in unusual premium.

Hedge funds and billionaires quarter ended Jun 30

0of the funds Gekko tracks hold ELF.

0added0opened0trimmed2sold out
Every signal with its contract, strike and premium, and which funds are on each side.Unlock in Gekko

e.l.f. Beauty earnings: next date and track record

e.l.f. Beauty reports on Nov 4, 2026, after the close (36 days away), and beat the EPS estimate in 7 of its last 8 reports.

7 of 8reports beat the EPS estimate
±13.5%average move across the report
4 of 8reports followed by a gain

Share-price move across each report

+8.3%Nov ’24−18.5%Feb ’25+21.9%May ’25−9.0%Aug ’25−35.3%Nov ’25−9.4%Feb ’26+0.3%May ’26+5.1%Aug ’26

Last earnings call, Aug 5, 2026 AI summary

What they said
e.l.f. Beauty reported Q1 fiscal '27 net sales growth of 36%, marking its 30th consecutive quarter of growth and over 7 years of continuous expansion. The company has 4 brands exceeding $200M in retail sales, with e.l.f. Cosmetics holding #1 unit share in mass cosmetics. Supply chain diversification reduced China-only production from 99% to approximately 40% by fiscal year-end. Pricing tests confirmed appropriate positioning on 90% of SKUs, with selective price reductions on ~10% to drive unit momentum.
Guidance
Management raised fiscal '27 net sales growth outlook to 18%-20%, up significantly from prior guidance of 12%-14%. The company is scaling toward $2 billion in net sales, with rhode potentially becoming the fastest beauty brand to reach $1 billion.
ReportedEPSSurpriseRevenueSurpriseMove
Aug 5, 2026$1.75
est $0.71
+145.1%$479.4M
est $431.2M
+11.2%+5.1%
May 20, 2026$0.32
est $0.29
+9.0%$449.3M
est $423.1M
+6.2%+0.3%
Feb 4, 2026$1.24
est $0.73
+69.9%$489.5M
est $461.8M
+6.0%−9.4%
Nov 5, 2025$0.68
est $0.57
+19.9%$343.9M
est $455.8M
−24.5%−35.3%
Aug 6, 2025$0.89
est $0.84
+6.5%$353.7M
est $369.2M
−4.2%−9.0%
May 28, 2025$0.78
est $0.72
+8.2%$332.6M
est $326.7M
+1.8%+21.9%
Feb 6, 2025$0.74
est $0.76
−2.6%$355.3M
est $328.1M
+8.3%−18.5%
Nov 6, 2024$0.77
est $0.42
+83.3%——+8.3%

“Move” is the close of the first session after the report compared with the close of the last session before it, so it reads the same whether the company reported before the open or after the close.

e.l.f. Beauty stock forecast and analyst price targets

Analysts’ average 12-month price target for e.l.f. Beauty is $102.12, +0.3% from the last close, from 17 firms rating the stock in the last 90 days.

$102.12consensus 12-month target, +0.3% from the last close
Low $65High $127
Buy12
Hold5
Sell0

Each firm’s latest rating in the last 90 days: 17 firms.

Latest analyst actions

DateFirmRatingTargetvs price
Sep 28William BlairBuy, reiterated——
Sep 18Morgan StanleyHold, reiterated$90−11.6%
Sep 17BernsteinBuy, reiterated$127+24.8%
Sep 16B. Riley SecuritiesBuy, maintained$115+13.0%
Sep 15Bank of America SecuritiesBuy, reiterated$118+15.9%
+0.8%average 20-day move after past Neutral readings
+1.4%average move over the next 20 trading days in the last 5 years
±4.1%typical daily move, from the 14-day average range

Gekko doesn’t publish price predictions. These are analyst targets and historical base rates, which don’t guarantee future results.

e.l.f. Beauty seasonality: the next 20 trading days

Over the next 20 trading days from Sep 29, e.l.f. Beauty averaged +1.4% across the last 5 years, rising in 2 of them.

Next 20 trading days, by year

+5.4%2021+14.4%2022−6.9%2023+0.9%2024−3.8%2025

Average move and hit rate

WindowAverageYears higher
Next 5 trading days−1.4%2 of 5
Next 10 trading days−1.0%2 of 5
Next 15 trading days−1.8%1 of 5
Next 20 trading days+1.4%2 of 5
Next 30 trading days−1.2%3 of 5

For scale, ELF’s typical 20-trading-day move in either direction is about 10.7%.

e.l.f. Beauty market cap and key statistics

e.l.f. Beauty’s market cap is $6.00B, with a P/E ratio of 101.5 and revenue of $1.76B over the last twelve months.

Valuation

Market cap
$6.00B
P/E ratio
101.5
Forward P/E
35.2
EPS, TTM
$0.98
Gekko Fair Value
$80.01

Trading

Volume
1.11M
Avg volume, 20 days
1.43M
52-week high
$147.75
52-week low
$48.82
Shares outstanding
59.01M

Financials

Revenue, TTM
$1.76B
Profit margin
3.4%
Return on equity
6%
Quarterly earnings growth, YoY
+93.1%

Risk and income

Beta
1.60
Typical daily move
±4.1%
Typical 20-day move
±10.7%

e.l.f. Beauty stock news this week

Coverage of e.l.f. Beauty this week reads positive: 3 positive, 3 neutral and 0 negative headlines.

News sentiment positive

e.l.f. Beauty peers

e.l.f. Beauty’s 6 largest industry peers by market value, with today’s move, GekkoIndex zone and gap to Gekko Fair Value.

StockTodayGekkoIndex zonevs Fair Value
PGProcter & Gamble+2.2%Neutral11.3% below
CLColgate-Palmolive+1.0%Accumulation1.8% below
ELEstee Lauder Companies+2.9%Neutral5.7% above
KVUEKenvue+0.9%Accumulation19.5% below
KMBKimberly-Clark+0.8%Accumulation14.9% below
CHDChurch & Dwight−0.2%Accumulation3.8% below

A peer links to its own page where one exists.

In the Buying zone today

Reporting earnings this week

Popular on Gekko

e.l.f. Beauty stock FAQ

What is e.l.f. Beauty’s market cap?

e.l.f. Beauty’s market cap is $6.00B at the Sep 28, 2026 close of $101.80, with 59.01M shares outstanding. The shares trade on a P/E ratio of 101.5.

What is the e.l.f. Beauty stock forecast?

The consensus analyst 12-month price target for e.l.f. Beauty is $102.12, +0.3% from the last close. Of the 17 firms that rated the stock in the last 90 days, 12 rate it a buy, 5 a hold and 0 a sell. Gekko doesn’t publish price predictions of its own.

Is e.l.f. Beauty stock overvalued or undervalued?

On Gekko’s estimate e.l.f. Beauty is overvalued: the Sep 28, 2026 close of $101.80 is 27.2% above Gekko Fair Value of $80.01. Gekko Fair Value is recalculated every trading day, and a gap inside 5% either way counts as about fair value.

When does e.l.f. Beauty report earnings next?

e.l.f. Beauty is expected to report on Nov 4, 2026, after the market closes (36 days away). Analysts expect earnings of $0.59 per share on revenue of $467.7M. e.l.f. Beauty beat the earnings estimate in 7 of its last 8 reports, moving 13.5% on average across the report.

What is e.l.f. Beauty’s 52-week high and low?

e.l.f. Beauty’s 52-week high is $147.75 and its 52-week low is $48.82; it closed at $101.80 on Sep 28, 2026, −22.1% over the past year. Over the last five years the shares peaked at $221.83 on Mar 4, 2024.

Is e.l.f. Beauty stock a buy right now?

Gekko describes the data; it does not make buy or sell recommendations. On the swing-trade checklist, 2 of the 6 items with data read as supportive (trend and earnings risk), 2 as mixed (gekkoindex and seasonality) and 2 as headwinds (fair value and smart money). The checklist is a description of current data, not a recommendation.

Is there unusual options activity in e.l.f. Beauty?

Gekko flagged 2 unusual options signals in e.l.f. Beauty over the last 30 days, with $456K of flagged premium in calls and $777K in puts. The latest, bullish flow, was on Sep 18, 2026 with $438K in unusual premium. The signal-by-signal table is in Gekko.

How this page works

During US trading hours the price at the top of the page is a delayed quote, refreshed every 15 minutes; everything else is rebuilt after each US market close. The GekkoIndex, Gekko Fair Value and the checklist are Gekko’s own, and the Gekko Brief is written by AI from this page’s data and checked against it before it is published. How Gekko’s data works →

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