CareTrust REIT (CTRE) Stock Analysis & Forecast

Sep 28 close

$37.42+0.01 (0.0%)

Gekko Brief

AI summary

CareTrust REIT's only headline this week is a filing showing Bank of America Corp DE taking a position in CTRE, acquiring shares valued at approximately $45.9 million, a 0.48% stake, with institutional investors collectively owning 87.77% of the company. The most recent operational update on record comes from the last earnings call, where CareTrust reported 14% year-over-year FFO per share growth, a 16.4% dividend increase, roughly $245 million in Q1 investments plus an additional roughly $865 million closed since April across 12 transactions, EBITDAR rent coverage at 2.25x, and a Moody's upgrade to investment grade.

CTRE closed at $37.42, sitting between its 50-day average of $39.80 and 200-day average of $39.05, with one-month and three-month returns of -4.9% and -7.5% respectively against a one-year return of 8.7%. The GekkoIndex reads 68.6, placing the stock in the Accumulation zone, down 1.6 over five periods. Price sits 33.8% below Gekko Fair Value of $56.54.

The next earnings date falls on 9 November 2026, 41 days out and beyond a typical 20-trading-day holding window; the prior report showed an EPS of $0.36 against an estimate of $0.37 with a 5.4% reaction. No insider, Congress, or unusual options activity appears in the respective 90-day and 30-day windows, though one billionaire holder is on record. Seasonality over the past 5 years shows the next 20 trading days averaging 2.9%, positive in 5 of those years. Analyst consensus among 7 firms stands at 5 buy and 2 hold ratings, with a consensus target of $45.15.

Written by AI and checked automatically against the figures on this page. Generated Sep 29, 2026 from the data above.

CareTrust REIT price vs fair value

▲$56.54$37.42Sep ’25Mar ’26Sep ’26
Close $37.42200-day averageGekko Fair Value $56.54

CareTrust REIT quick facts

Market cap
$8.84B
P/E ratio
23.4
Forward P/E
21.3
EPS, TTM
$1.60
Revenue, TTM
$571.4M
Profit margin
62.2%
Dividend yield
3.89%
Beta
0.79
Volume
2.03M avg 2.14M
1-year return
+8.7%
Typical daily move
±2.1%
Typical 20-day move
±4.4%
50-day average
$39.80
200-day average
$39.05
Next earnings
Nov 9
Shares outstanding
236.3M
52-week range
$32.79$43.62

CareTrust REIT swing-trade checklist

CareTrust REIT scores 4 supportive, 1 mixed and 0 headwinds across the 5 checklist items with data.

Six things swing traders check before a 20-day hold, read from the latest data.

4 supportive1 mixed0 headwinds

  • Trendmixed

    Averages disagree

    Close $37.42 sits between the 50-day ($39.80) and 200-day ($39.05) averages, or the averages disagree.

    See the chart
  • GekkoIndexsupportive

    68.6, Accumulation

    Reading 68.6 is in the Accumulation zone.

    See the GekkoIndex
  • Fair valuesupportive

    33.8% below

    Price is 33.8% below Gekko Fair Value (more than 5% below).

    See fair value
  • Smart moneyno data

    No data

    No insider, Congress or unusual options activity in the window.

    See smart money
  • Earnings risksupportive

    Reports in 41 days

    Next report Nov 9, 2026, 41 days away — outside a typical 20-trading-day hold.

    See earnings
  • Seasonalitysupportive

    +2.9% on average

    From this point in the calendar, the next 20 trading days averaged +2.9% over 5 years, rising in 5 of them.

    See seasonality

A description of current data, not a recommendation. How this page works

CareTrust REIT stock chart and price history

CareTrust REIT closed at $37.42 on Sep 28, 2026, +8.7% over the past year, inside a 52-week range of $32.79 to $43.62.

Close50-day average200-day averageVolume
CareTrust REIT share price, past year, with 50-day and 200-day moving averages and volume$30$35$40NovDecJan 2026FebMarAprMayJunJulAugSep37.42

Use the left and right arrow keys to read daily values.

Performance Breakdown

1 month
−4.9%
3 months
−7.5%
6 months
+0.8%
1 year
+8.7%
The full CTRE chart adds GekkoIndex, insider, options, Congress and hedge fund markers, plus TrendCandles™.Open CTRE in Gekko

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About CareTrust REIT

CareTrust REIT owns and leases healthcare-related real estate, with a focus on skilled nursing facilities and seniors' housing, along with other medical properties. It is best known for building a nationwide collection of these properties, which it places under long-term net lease arrangements with the operators who run them.

The company is self-managed and structured as a real estate investment trust, meaning it earns income primarily through the rents paid under these leases. Its customer base consists of a growing set of operators across the healthcare property space, and it continues to add properties through both new acquisitions and development of existing holdings. Growth is pursued broadly across the United States rather than in one particular region.

No details on CareTrust REIT's founding date or headquarters location are available. Its shares trade under the ticker CTRE.

Sector
Finance
Website
caretrustreit.com

CareTrust REIT GekkoIndex: the smart money zone

CareTrust REIT’s GekkoIndex — Gekko’s 0 to 100 smart money score — reads 68.6, in the Accumulation zone, down 1.6 points over five sessions.

010068.6Accumulation

Down 1.6 points over five sessions, from the Buying zone.

Reading for Sep 28, 2026

What followed past readings in each zone

ZoneReadings5 days10 days20 days50 days
Buying13−1.5%−2.2%−1.7%−3.3%
Accumulation (current zone)147+0.7%+1.5%+2.9%+5.6%
Neutral409+0.4%+0.6%+1.5%+4.8%
Distribution56+0.4%+1.1%+1.3%+3.1%
Selling0Not available

Average CTRE share-price change over the trading days after each daily reading in its GekkoIndex history. Across every stock Gekko tracks, Accumulation readings averaged +2.3% over 20 days. Past behaviour doesn’t guarantee future results.

Accumulation zone: Institutional interest building. About the five zones →

See every daily GekkoIndex reading plotted over the CTRE price, zone by zone.Track CTRE in Gekko

Is CareTrust REIT stock overvalued? Gekko Fair Value

CareTrust REIT trades 33.8% below Gekko Fair Value of $56.54, so the shares are undervalued on Gekko’s estimate.

Gekko’s own estimate of what CareTrust REIT shares are worth, recalculated every trading day.

$56.54

Gekko Fair Value, Sep 29, 2026

33.8% Undervalued

How Gekko Fair Value works →

Gekko Fair Value on every chart, with the gap to price updating daily.Open CTRE in Gekko

CareTrust REIT insider and Congress trading

No open-market insider purchases were filed for CareTrust REIT, and no Congress trades were disclosed, in the last 90 days.

Plus buybacks, unusual options and fund positions, each dated to when it became public.

Insider buying last 90 days

No open-market insider purchases were filed for CTRE in the last 90 days.

From Form 4 filings, dated to when each was filed.

Every CTRE insider filing, plotted on the chart in Gekko.Open CTRE in Gekko

Congress trades last 90 days

No trades in CTRE were disclosed by members of Congress in the last 90 days.

From congressional disclosures, which report amounts as ranges.

Congress disclosures for CTRE, plotted on the chart in Gekko.Open CTRE in Gekko

Buybacks

CareTrust REIT has been buying back its own shares.

Bought back, quarter ended Dec 31, 2025
$151K
As a share of market cap
0.00%

From company filings.

Hedge funds and billionaires quarter ended Sep 30

1of the funds Gekko tracks holds CTRE.

0added1opened0trimmed0sold out
Which funds are on each side, name by name.Unlock in Gekko

CareTrust REIT earnings: next date and track record

CareTrust REIT reports on Nov 9, 2026 (41 days away), and beat the EPS estimate in 1 of its last 8 reports.

1 of 8reports beat the EPS estimate
±2.6%average move across the report
6 of 8reports followed by a gain

Share-price move across each report

+4.8%Oct ’24+3.0%Feb ’25−2.5%May ’25−0.7%Aug ’25+1.9%Oct ’25+0.5%Nov ’25+1.6%Feb ’26+5.4%May ’26

Last earnings call, May 7, 2026 AI summary

What they said
CareTrust REIT reported strong Q1 2026 results with 14% year-over-year FFO per share growth and a 16.4% dividend increase. The company closed ~$245M in Q1 investments, with an additional ~$865M closed since April across 12 transactions. EBITDAR rent coverage remains strong at 2.25x, with 100% contractual rent collected. Moody's upgraded CTRE to investment grade, and CMS data shows CTRE tenants outperform sector averages on key quality metrics.
Guidance
Management raised full-year FFO per share guidance, with the midpoint implying 14.8% growth versus 2025. A reloaded investment pipeline of $360M supports continued deployment. SHOP is highlighted as an expanding component of the growth strategy.
ReportedEPSSurpriseRevenueSurpriseMove
May 7, 2026$0.36
est $0.37
−2.7%$114.2M
est $112.8M
+1.2%+5.4%
Feb 12, 2026$0.47
est $0.39
+20.5%$106.3M
est $110.7M
−4.0%+1.6%
Nov 5, 2025$0.45
est $0.47
−4.3%$104.3M
est $130.5M
−20.1%+0.5%
Oct 30, 2025$0.33
est $0.40
−17.1%$104.3M
est $130.5M
−20.1%+1.9%
Aug 6, 2025$0.43
est $0.45
−4.4%$112.5M
est $102.0M
+10.2%−0.7%
May 1, 2025$0.42
est $0.43
−2.3%$71.65M
est $98.85M
−27.5%−2.5%
Feb 12, 2025$0.40
est $0.40
0.0%$62.20M
est $77.25M
−19.5%+3.0%
Oct 29, 2024$0.38
est $0.38
0.0%$57.15M
est $57.29M
−0.2%+4.8%

“Move” is the close of the first session after the report compared with the close of the last session before it, so it reads the same whether the company reported before the open or after the close.

CareTrust REIT stock forecast and analyst price targets

Analysts’ average 12-month price target for CareTrust REIT is $45.15, +20.7% from the last close, from 7 firms rating the stock in the last 90 days.

$45.15consensus 12-month target, +20.7% from the last close
Low $43High $49
Buy5
Hold2
Sell0

Each firm’s latest rating in the last 90 days: 7 firms.

Latest analyst actions

DateFirmRatingTargetvs price
Sep 16KeyBancBuy, reiterated$46+22.9%
Sep 10Huntington Capital MarketsBuy, initiated——
Sep 1Wells FargoBuy, reiterated$44+17.6%
Aug 21UBSBuy, reiterated$48+28.3%
Aug 14Bank of America SecuritiesBuy, reiterated$49+30.9%
+2.9%average 20-day move after past Accumulation readings
+2.9%average move over the next 20 trading days in the last 5 years
±2.1%typical daily move, from the 14-day average range

Gekko doesn’t publish price predictions. These are analyst targets and historical base rates, which don’t guarantee future results.

CareTrust REIT seasonality: the next 20 trading days

Over the next 20 trading days from Sep 29, CareTrust REIT averaged +2.9% across the last 5 years, rising in 5 of them.

Next 20 trading days, by year

+2.1%2021+3.5%2022+4.3%2023+1.5%2024+4.1%2025

Average move and hit rate

WindowAverageYears higher
Next 5 trading days−0.2%2 of 5
Next 10 trading days−1.1%2 of 5
Next 15 trading days+2.2%4 of 5
Next 20 trading days+2.9%5 of 5
Next 30 trading days+6.3%5 of 5

For scale, CTRE’s typical 20-trading-day move in either direction is about 4.4%.

CareTrust REIT market cap and key statistics

CareTrust REIT’s market cap is $8.84B, with a P/E ratio of 23.4 and revenue of $571.4M over the last twelve months.

Valuation

Market cap
$8.84B
P/E ratio
23.4
Forward P/E
21.3
EPS, TTM
$1.60
Gekko Fair Value
$56.54

Trading

Volume
2.03M
Avg volume, 20 days
2.14M
52-week high
$43.62
52-week low
$32.79
Shares outstanding
236.3M

Financials

Revenue, TTM
$571.4M
Profit margin
62.2%
Return on equity
9.1%
Quarterly earnings growth, YoY
+8.6%

Risk and income

Beta
0.79
Typical daily move
±2.1%
Typical 20-day move
±4.4%
Dividend yield
3.89%

CareTrust REIT stock news this week

1 headline about CareTrust REIT from the past week, newest first, each linking to the publisher.

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In the Buying zone today

Reporting earnings this week

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CareTrust REIT stock FAQ

What is CareTrust REIT’s market cap?

CareTrust REIT’s market cap is $8.84B at the Sep 28, 2026 close of $37.42, with 236.3M shares outstanding. The shares trade on a P/E ratio of 23.4.

What is the CareTrust REIT stock forecast?

The consensus analyst 12-month price target for CareTrust REIT is $45.15, +20.7% from the last close. Of the 7 firms that rated the stock in the last 90 days, 5 rate it a buy, 2 a hold and 0 a sell. Gekko doesn’t publish price predictions of its own.

Is CareTrust REIT stock overvalued or undervalued?

On Gekko’s estimate CareTrust REIT is undervalued: the Sep 28, 2026 close of $37.42 is 33.8% below Gekko Fair Value of $56.54. Gekko Fair Value is recalculated every trading day, and a gap inside 5% either way counts as about fair value.

When does CareTrust REIT report earnings next?

CareTrust REIT is expected to report on Nov 9, 2026 (41 days away). Analysts expect earnings of $0.43 per share on revenue of $129.6M. CareTrust REIT beat the earnings estimate in 1 of its last 8 reports, moving 2.6% on average across the report.

What is CareTrust REIT’s 52-week high and low?

CareTrust REIT’s 52-week high is $43.62 and its 52-week low is $32.79; it closed at $37.42 on Sep 28, 2026, +8.7% over the past year.

Is CareTrust REIT stock a buy right now?

Gekko describes the data; it does not make buy or sell recommendations. On the swing-trade checklist, 4 of the 5 items with data read as supportive (gekkoindex, fair value, earnings risk and seasonality), 1 as mixed (trend). The checklist is a description of current data, not a recommendation.

How this page works

During US trading hours the price at the top of the page is a delayed quote, refreshed every 15 minutes; everything else is rebuilt after each US market close. The GekkoIndex, Gekko Fair Value and the checklist are Gekko’s own, and the Gekko Brief is written by AI from this page’s data and checked against it before it is published. How Gekko’s data works →

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