NYSE: CIEN

Ciena (CIEN) Stock Analysis & Forecast

Nov 4 close

$272.24−27.84 (−9.3%)

Gekko Brief

AI summaryNov 4 close

Ciena's stock has been under pressure this week amid mixed takes on its outlook following its last earnings report. Coverage notes the company cleared all eight growth filters tied to a fundamentals-based strategy and highlights 56% gains over the past year driven by AI-related connectivity demand and optical networking leadership. At the same time, a separate piece raises concerns that operating margin still trails the S&P 500, that upfront costs to secure parts are pressuring free cash flow, and that revenue concentration among a few large hyperscaler customers creates risk. An options chain summary and a Form 4 filing also appeared but add little beyond background.

Ciena closed at $272.24, down 9.3%, sitting below both its 50-day average of $357.47 and 200-day average of $405.62, with the 50-day below the 200-day. The stock's one-month return is -38.6% and its six-month return is -52.8%, against a 52-week range of $168.22 to $637.51. The GekkoIndex reads 67.6, placing it in the Accumulation zone, while price sits 29.5% below Gekko Fair Value of $385.95.

Ciena's next earnings date is 10 December 2026, 35 days away and outside a typical 20-trading-day holding window. Over the last 30 days there has been 1 unusual options signal, with put premium of $1,603,510 well above call premium of $196,460. Seasonality over the next 20 trading days has averaged +4.7% across 5 years, rising in 4 of them. Analyst consensus stands at 12 buy, 3 hold, 0 sell ratings among 15 firms, with a consensus target of $512.99.

Written by AI from the Nov 4, 2026 close and checked automatically against the figures on this page.

Ciena price vs fair value

$385.95$272.24Nov ’25May ’26Nov ’26
Close $272.24200-day averageGekko Fair Value $385.95

Ciena quick facts

Market cap
$38.61B
P/E ratio
63.6
Forward P/E
31.4
EPS, TTM
$4.47
Revenue, TTM
$6.02B
Profit margin
10.9%
Dividend yield
—
Beta
1.35
Volume
3.87M avg 3.13M
1-year return
+43.6%
Typical daily move
±9.4%
Typical 20-day move
±9.8%
50-day average
$357.47
200-day average
$405.62
Next earnings
Dec 10 before open
Shares outstanding
141.8M
52-week range
$168.22$637.51

Ciena swing-trade checklist

Ciena scores 4 supportive, 0 mixed and 2 headwinds across the 6 checklist items with data.

Six things swing traders check before a 20-day hold, read from the latest data.

4 supportive0 mixed2 headwinds

  • Trendheadwind

    Below 50 and 200-day

    Close $272.24 is below the 50-day ($357.47) and 200-day ($405.62) averages, and the 50-day is below the 200-day.

    See the chart
  • GekkoIndexsupportive

    67.6, Accumulation

    Reading 67.6 is in the Accumulation zone.

    See the GekkoIndex
  • Fair valuesupportive

    29.5% below

    Price is 29.5% below Gekko Fair Value (more than 5% below).

    See fair value
  • Smart moneyheadwind

    Leans bearish

    Last 30 days: 1 unusual options signal.

    See smart money
  • Earnings risksupportive

    Reports in 35 days

    Next report Dec 10, 2026, 35 days away — outside a typical 20-trading-day hold.

    See earnings
  • Seasonalitysupportive

    +4.7% on average

    From this point in the calendar, the next 20 trading days averaged +4.7% over 5 years, rising in 4 of them.

    See seasonality

A description of current data, not a recommendation. How this page works

Ciena stock chart and price history

Ciena closed at $272.24 on Nov 4, 2026, +43.6% over the past year, inside a 52-week range of $168.22 to $637.51.

Close50-day average200-day averageVolume
Ciena share price, past year, with 50-day and 200-day moving averages and volume$100$200$400$500$600DecJan 2026FebMarAprMayJunJulAugSepOct272.24

Use the left and right arrow keys to read daily values.

Performance Breakdown

1 month
−38.6%
3 months
−32.6%
6 months
−52.8%
1 year
+43.6%
The full CIEN chart adds GekkoIndex, insider, options, Congress and hedge fund markers, plus TrendCandles™.Open CIEN in Gekko

Follow Ciena through every session

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About Ciena

Ciena designs equipment, software and services that let network operators move video, data and voice traffic across their systems. It is recognized for building the optical and packet switching gear that keeps large communication networks running smoothly.

Its work is split across a few areas. One line of business centers on hardware that blends optical transport with packet switching, including product families like the 6500, 5400, Z-Series, Waveserver and the 3000 and 5000 switches, along with the embedded software that runs them. A separate arm, Blue Planet, focuses on automation software that coordinates services across network domains, tracks equipment inventories, manages virtualized functions and supplies analytics. Another group offers management software such as OneControl for planning and running networks, while its services division handles consulting, network design, installation, maintenance and training. Ciena reaches operators both through its own sales staff and through outside partners.

The company was founded in 1992 and is based in Hanover, Maryland. Its shares trade on the NYSE under the ticker CIEN.

Listed
NYSE
Sector
Electronic technology
Industry
Telecommunications equipment
Website
ciena.com

Ciena GekkoIndex: the smart money zone

Ciena’s GekkoIndex — Gekko’s 0 to 100 smart money score — reads 67.6, in the Accumulation zone, up 7.4 points over five sessions.

010067.6Accumulation

Up 7.4 points over five sessions.

Reading for Nov 4, 2026

What followed past readings in each zone

ZoneReadings5 days10 days20 days50 days
Buying23+3.3%+6.5%+1.7%+9.5%
Accumulation (current zone)164+0.1%+0.8%+3.0%+7.9%
Neutral410+2.8%+4.5%+8.9%+24.5%
Distribution93−0.4%+2.3%+8.2%+25.2%
Selling7Too few readings yet

Average CIEN share-price change over the trading days after each daily reading in its GekkoIndex history. Across every stock Gekko tracks, Accumulation readings averaged +2.0% over 20 days. Past behaviour doesn’t guarantee future results.

Accumulation zone: Institutional interest building. About the five zones →

See every daily GekkoIndex reading plotted over the CIEN price, zone by zone.Track CIEN in Gekko

Is Ciena stock overvalued? Gekko Fair Value

Ciena trades 29.5% below Gekko Fair Value of $385.95, so the shares are undervalued on Gekko’s estimate.

Gekko’s own estimate of what Ciena shares are worth, recalculated every trading day.

$385.95

Gekko Fair Value, Nov 4, 2026

29.5% Undervalued

At the end of Aug 2026 the price was 24.6% below the estimate.

Gekko Fair ValueShare price, month end
$386$300Aug 2026SepOctNov 2026

How Gekko Fair Value works →

Gekko Fair Value on every chart, with the gap to price updating daily.Open CIEN in Gekko

Ciena insider and Congress trading

No open-market insider purchases were filed for Ciena, and no Congress trades were disclosed, in the last 90 days.

Plus buybacks, unusual options and fund positions, each dated to when it became public.

Insider buying last 90 days

No open-market insider purchases were filed for CIEN in the last 90 days.

From Form 4 filings, dated to when each was filed.

Every CIEN insider filing, plotted on the chart in Gekko.Open CIEN in Gekko

Congress trades last 90 days

No trades in CIEN were disclosed by members of Congress in the last 90 days.

From congressional disclosures, which report amounts as ranges.

Congress disclosures for CIEN, plotted on the chart in Gekko.Open CIEN in Gekko

Buybacks

Ciena has been buying back its own shares.

Bought back, quarter ended Aug 1, 2026
$271.9M
As a share of market cap
0.70%
Trailing four quarters
$554.6M

From company filings.

Unusual options activity last 30 days

1signal, 11% of the flagged premium in calls.

Latest: Bearish flow on Oct 9, $1.80M in unusual premium.

Hedge funds and billionaires quarter ended Jun 30

3of the funds Gekko tracks hold CIEN.

1added1opened1trimmed3sold out
Every signal with its contract, strike and premium, and which funds are on each side.Unlock in Gekko

Ciena earnings: next date and track record

Ciena reports on Dec 10, 2026, before the open (35 days away), and beat the EPS estimate in 4 of its last 8 reports.

4 of 8reports beat the EPS estimate
±13.4%average move across the report
3 of 8reports followed by a gain

Share-price move across each report

+22.6%Dec ’24+1.3%Mar ’25−13.3%Jun ’25+23.1%Sep ’25−1.5%Dec ’25−14.4%Mar ’26−21.3%Jun ’26−9.4%Sep ’26

Last earnings call, Sep 3, 2026 AI summary

What they said
Ciena reported record Q3 FY26 results with revenue of $1.7 billion, up 37% year-over-year. Adjusted operating margin hit 22.5%, more than doubling year-over-year and marking a company record. Adjusted EPS surged 215% YoY to $2.11. Book-to-bill ratio was significantly above 1, with backlog growing substantially. AI-driven network infrastructure demand is accelerating across WAN, AI WAN, and data center markets.
Guidance
Ciena projects exiting FY26 with over $10 billion in backlog. Q4 backlog growth is expected to exceed Q3's rate, with one month of Q4 orders already approaching Q3's total volume, signaling continued strong momentum.
ReportedEPSSurpriseRevenueSurpriseMove
Sep 3, 2026$0.41
est $1.46
−71.9%$1.67B
est $1.64B
+2.1%−9.4%
Jun 4, 2026$1.64
est $1.46
+12.3%$1.57B
est $1.50B
+4.4%−21.3%
Mar 5, 2026$1.03
est $1.16
−11.2%$1.43B
est $1.40B
+2.0%−14.4%
Dec 11, 2025$0.91
est $0.78
+16.7%$1.35B
est $1.29B
+4.7%−1.5%
Sep 4, 2025$0.67
est $0.53
+26.4%$1.22B
est $1.17B
+3.8%+23.1%
Jun 5, 2025$0.42
est $0.52
−18.9%$1.13B
est $1.09B
+3.0%−13.3%
Mar 11, 2025$0.64
est $0.41
+54.7%$1.07B
est $1.05B
+1.9%+1.3%
Dec 12, 2024$0.54
est $0.66
−18.2%$1.12B
est $1.10B
+1.9%+22.6%

“Move” is the close of the first session after the report compared with the close of the last session before it, so it reads the same whether the company reported before the open or after the close.

Ciena stock forecast and analyst price targets

Analysts’ average 12-month price target for Ciena is $512.99, +88.4% from the last close, from 15 firms rating the stock in the last 90 days.

$512.99consensus 12-month target, +88.4% from the last close
Low $347High $658
Buy12
Hold3
Sell0

Each firm’s latest rating in the last 90 days: 15 firms.

Latest analyst actions

DateFirmRatingTargetvs price
Oct 14Evercore ISIBuy, maintained$550+102.0%
Oct 13Bank of America SecuritiesBuy, maintained$550+102.0%
Oct 8CitiBuy, maintained$658+141.7%
Oct 7BernsteinBuy, maintained$440+61.6%
Oct 7Evercore ISIBuy, maintained$550+102.0%
+3.0%average 20-day move after past Accumulation readings
+4.7%average move over the next 20 trading days in the last 5 years
±9.4%typical daily move, from the 14-day average range

Gekko doesn’t publish price predictions. These are analyst targets and historical base rates, which don’t guarantee future results.

Ciena seasonality: the next 20 trading days

Over the next 20 trading days from Nov 4, Ciena averaged +4.7% across the last 5 years, rising in 4 of them.

Next 20 trading days, by year

+0.4%2021−2.0%2022+5.9%2023+12.3%2024+5.7%2025

Average move and hit rate

WindowAverageYears higher
Next 5 trading days+5.2%4 of 5
Next 10 trading days+1.8%4 of 5
Next 15 trading days+2.8%3 of 5
Next 20 trading days+4.7%4 of 5
Next 30 trading days+15.3%4 of 5

For scale, CIEN’s typical 20-trading-day move in either direction is about 9.8%.

Ciena market cap and key statistics

Ciena’s market cap is $38.61B, with a P/E ratio of 63.6 and revenue of $6.02B over the last twelve months.

Valuation

Market cap
$38.61B
P/E ratio
63.6
Forward P/E
31.4
EPS, TTM
$4.47
Gekko Fair Value
$385.95

Trading

Volume
3.87M
Avg volume, 20 days
3.13M
52-week high
$637.51
52-week low
$168.22
Shares outstanding
141.8M

Financials

Revenue, TTM
$6.02B
Profit margin
10.9%
Return on equity
22.4%
Quarterly earnings growth, YoY
+422.9%

Risk and income

Beta
1.35
Typical daily move
±9.4%
Typical 20-day move
±9.8%

Ciena stock news this week

Coverage of Ciena this week reads positive: 8 positive, 3 neutral and 2 negative headlines.

News sentiment positive

Ciena peers

Ciena’s 6 largest industry peers by market value, with today’s move, GekkoIndex zone and gap to Gekko Fair Value.

StockTodayGekkoIndex zonevs Fair Value
AAPLApple+2.3%Neutral31.3% above
CSCOCisco Systems−0.4%Accumulation4.3% above
MSIMotorola Solutions+0.9%Distribution7.0% above
GRMNGarmin+3.9%Neutral17.7% above
UIUbiquiti+2.0%Accumulation4.9% above
VSATViaSat−12.7%Neutral20.3% below

A peer links to its own page where one exists.

In the Buying zone today

Reporting earnings this week

Popular on Gekko

More stocks in Telecommunications equipment

Ciena stock FAQ

What is Ciena’s market cap?

Ciena’s market cap is $38.61B at the Nov 4, 2026 close of $272.24, with 141.8M shares outstanding. The shares trade on a P/E ratio of 63.6.

What is the Ciena stock forecast?

The consensus analyst 12-month price target for Ciena is $512.99, +88.4% from the last close. Of the 15 firms that rated the stock in the last 90 days, 12 rate it a buy, 3 a hold and 0 a sell. Gekko doesn’t publish price predictions of its own.

Is Ciena stock overvalued or undervalued?

On Gekko’s estimate Ciena is undervalued: the Nov 4, 2026 close of $272.24 is 29.5% below Gekko Fair Value of $385.95. Gekko Fair Value is recalculated every trading day, and a gap inside 5% either way counts as about fair value.

When does Ciena report earnings next?

Ciena is expected to report on Dec 10, 2026, before the market opens (35 days away). Analysts expect earnings of $2.05 per share on revenue of $1.76B. Ciena beat the earnings estimate in 4 of its last 8 reports, moving 13.4% on average across the report.

What is Ciena’s 52-week high and low?

Ciena’s 52-week high is $637.51 and its 52-week low is $168.22; it closed at $272.24 on Nov 4, 2026, +43.6% over the past year.

Is Ciena stock a buy right now?

Gekko describes the data; it does not make buy or sell recommendations. On the swing-trade checklist, 4 of the 6 items with data read as supportive (gekkoindex, fair value, earnings risk and seasonality) and 2 as headwinds (trend and smart money). The checklist is a description of current data, not a recommendation.

Is there unusual options activity in Ciena?

Gekko flagged 1 unusual options signal in Ciena over the last 30 days, with $196K of flagged premium in calls and $1.60M in puts. The latest, bearish flow, was on Oct 9, 2026 with $1.80M in unusual premium. The signal-by-signal table is in Gekko.

How this page works

During US trading hours the price at the top of the page is a delayed quote, refreshed every 15 minutes; everything else is rebuilt after each US market close. The GekkoIndex, Gekko Fair Value and the checklist are Gekko’s own, and the Gekko Brief is written by AI from this page’s data and checked against it before it is published. How Gekko’s data works →

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