NYSE: WSO

Watsco (WSO) Stock Analysis & Forecast

Sep 28 close

$313.22−4.01 (−1.3%)

Gekko Brief

AI summary

Watsco trades at $313.22, down 1.3% on the day and below both its 50-day ($322.19) and 200-day ($372.79) averages, with the 50-day itself under the 200-day. The stock sits in the GekkoIndex Neutral zone with a reading of 57.7, having eased 1.6 over the past five sessions. Price stands 6.9% above Gekko Fair Value of $293.03, a level that has historically leaned toward pressure rather than support.

Longer-term returns show a 1-month gain of 0.1% against steeper losses over three months (-23.7%), six months (-9.8%) and one year (-20.5%), with the 52-week range spanning $295.75 to $459.00. Typical daily movement runs near 2.7%, with a typical 20-day swing of 5.7%.

The next earnings report is set for 4 November 2026, 36 days out and beyond a typical 20-trading-day holding window; the prior release on 29 July showed EPS of $4.00 against a $4.38 estimate, with a -15.4% reaction. No insider, Congress or unusual options activity appears in the recent windows, though one billionaire holder is recorded. Seasonality from this point has averaged -2.4% over the next 20 trading days across 5 years, positive in 1 of them. Analyst coverage shows 8 firms, 2 rating buy and 6 hold, with a consensus target of $379.20.

Written by AI and checked automatically against the figures on this page. Generated Sep 29, 2026 from the data above.

Watsco price vs fair value

$313.22$293.03Sep ’25Mar ’26Sep ’26
Close $313.22200-day averageGekko Fair Value $293.03

Watsco quick facts

Market cap
$12.90B
P/E ratio
27.8
Forward P/E
21.3
EPS, TTM
$11.50
Revenue, TTM
$7.28B
Profit margin
6.5%
Dividend yield
3.78%
Beta
1.04
Volume
521,426 avg 479,765
1-year return
−20.5%
Typical daily move
±2.7%
Typical 20-day move
±5.7%
50-day average
$322.19
200-day average
$372.79
Next earnings
Nov 4
Shares outstanding
35.59M
52-week range
$295.75$459.00

Watsco swing-trade checklist

Watsco scores 1 supportive, 1 mixed and 3 headwinds across the 5 checklist items with data.

Six things swing traders check before a 20-day hold, read from the latest data.

1 supportive1 mixed3 headwinds

  • Trendheadwind

    Below 50 and 200-day

    Close $313.22 is below the 50-day ($322.19) and 200-day ($372.79) averages, and the 50-day is below the 200-day.

    See the chart
  • GekkoIndexmixed

    57.7, Neutral

    Reading 57.7 is in the Neutral zone.

    See the GekkoIndex
  • Fair valueheadwind

    6.9% above

    Price is 6.9% above Gekko Fair Value (more than 5% above).

    See fair value
  • Smart moneyno data

    No data

    No insider, Congress or unusual options activity in the window.

    See smart money
  • Earnings risksupportive

    Reports in 36 days

    Next report Nov 4, 2026, 36 days away — outside a typical 20-trading-day hold.

    See earnings
  • Seasonalityheadwind

    −2.4% on average

    From this point in the calendar, the next 20 trading days averaged −2.4% over 5 years, rising in 1 of them.

    See seasonality

A description of current data, not a recommendation. How this page works

Watsco stock chart and price history

Watsco closed at $313.22 on Sep 28, 2026, −20.5% over the past year, inside a 52-week range of $295.75 to $459.00.

Close50-day average200-day averageVolume
Watsco share price, past year, with 50-day and 200-day moving averages and volume$300$350$400$450NovDecJan 2026FebMarAprMayJunJulAugSep313.22

Use the left and right arrow keys to read daily values.

Performance Breakdown

1 month
+0.1%
3 months
−23.7%
6 months
−9.8%
1 year
−20.5%
The full WSO chart adds GekkoIndex, insider, options, Congress and hedge fund markers, plus TrendCandles™.Open WSO in Gekko

Follow Watsco through every session

Put WSO on a Gekko watchlist and see its GekkoIndex, Gekko Fair Value and smart money signals update on the chart as they change.

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About Watsco

Watsco distributes air conditioning, heating, and refrigeration equipment along with the parts and supplies that go with them, operating across the United States, Canada, Latin America, and the Caribbean. Its product range spans residential ducted and ductless air conditioning units, gas, electric, and oil furnaces, and commercial-grade heating and cooling systems, alongside more specialized equipment for particular applications.

Beyond the equipment itself, the company supplies replacement components such as compressors, evaporator coils, and motors, plus a wide array of supporting materials including thermostats, insulation, refrigerants, ductwork, sheet metal, tools, copper tubing, and adhesives, as well as plumbing and bathroom remodeling items. Its customer base is made up of contractors and dealers who work on both replacement projects and new construction in residential and light commercial settings.

Watsco was incorporated in 1956 and is based in Miami, Florida. Its shares are listed on the NYSE under the ticker WSO.

Listed
NYSE
Sector
Producer manufacturing
Industry
Building products
Website
watsco.com

Watsco GekkoIndex: the smart money zone

Watsco’s GekkoIndex — Gekko’s 0 to 100 smart money score — reads 57.7, in the Neutral zone, down 1.6 points over five sessions.

010057.7Neutral

Down 1.6 points over five sessions.

Reading for Sep 28, 2026

What followed past readings in each zone

ZoneReadings5 days10 days20 days50 days
Buying36+1.4%+2.7%+4.3%+1.5%
Accumulation288+0.3%+1.0%+1.7%+0.4%
Neutral (current zone)321−0.5%−1.3%−2.1%−2.4%
Distribution26−0.9%−1.4%−6.6%−1.7%
Selling1Too few readings yet

Average WSO share-price change over the trading days after each daily reading in its GekkoIndex history. Across every stock Gekko tracks, Neutral readings averaged +1.1% over 20 days. Past behaviour doesn’t guarantee future results.

Neutral zone: No clear directional signal. About the five zones →

See every daily GekkoIndex reading plotted over the WSO price, zone by zone.Track WSO in Gekko

Is Watsco stock overvalued? Gekko Fair Value

Watsco trades 6.9% above Gekko Fair Value of $293.03, so the shares are overvalued on Gekko’s estimate.

Gekko’s own estimate of what Watsco shares are worth, recalculated every trading day.

$293.03

Gekko Fair Value, Sep 26, 2026

6.9% Overvalued

How Gekko Fair Value works →

Gekko Fair Value on every chart, with the gap to price updating daily.Open WSO in Gekko

Watsco insider and Congress trading

No open-market insider purchases were filed for Watsco, and no Congress trades were disclosed, in the last 90 days.

Plus buybacks, unusual options and fund positions, each dated to when it became public.

Insider buying last 90 days

No open-market insider purchases were filed for WSO in the last 90 days.

From Form 4 filings, dated to when each was filed.

Every WSO insider filing, plotted on the chart in Gekko.Open WSO in Gekko

Congress trades last 90 days

No trades in WSO were disclosed by members of Congress in the last 90 days.

From congressional disclosures, which report amounts as ranges.

Congress disclosures for WSO, plotted on the chart in Gekko.Open WSO in Gekko

Buybacks

Watsco has been buying back its own shares.

Bought back, quarter ended Jun 30, 2026
$590K
As a share of market cap
0.00%

From company filings.

Hedge funds and billionaires quarter ended Jun 30

1of the funds Gekko tracks holds WSO.

1added0opened0trimmed0sold out
Which funds are on each side, name by name.Unlock in Gekko

Watsco earnings: next date and track record

Watsco reports on Nov 4, 2026 (36 days away), and beat the EPS estimate in 2 of its last 8 reports.

2 of 8reports beat the EPS estimate
±5.3%average move across the report
2 of 8reports followed by a gain

Share-price move across each report

−1.3%Oct ’24+5.8%Feb ’25−10.0%Apr ’25−3.0%Jul ’250.0%Oct ’25+0.3%Feb ’26−6.2%Apr ’26−15.4%Jul ’26

Last earnings call, Jul 29, 2026 AI summary

What they said
Watsco reported Q2 2026 sales of $2.1 billion (up 2%), with residential HVAC equipment growing 5% in units and pricing. Gross margin compressed to 27.5% from 29.3% due to more moderate 2026 OEM pricing versus aggressive 2025 actions. EPS was $4.00, operating income $238 million (11.3% margin). The company acquired Jackson Supply ($230M annual sales, 25 locations) and holds $464 million cash with no debt. E-commerce grew 13%, reaching 37% of total sales.
Guidance
Management expects further inventory efficiency as lead times normalize and A2L transition completes. Long-term gross margin target remains 30%. Annual dividend increased 10% to $13.20 per share; technology platforms expected to drive above-market growth in coming years.
ReportedEPSSurpriseRevenueSurpriseMove
Jul 29, 2026$4.00
est $4.38
−8.7%$2.10B
est $2.14B
−1.8%−15.4%
Apr 28, 2026$1.87
est $1.68
+11.3%$1.53B
est $1.49B
+3.1%−6.2%
Feb 17, 2026$1.68
est $1.96
−14.3%$1.58B
est $1.62B
−2.4%+0.3%
Oct 29, 2025$3.98
est $4.22
−5.7%$2.07B
est $2.17B
−4.5%0.0%
Jul 30, 2025$4.52
est $4.78
−5.4%$2.06B
est $2.22B
−7.3%−3.0%
Apr 23, 2025$1.93
est $2.25
−14.2%$1.53B
est $2.24B
−31.5%−10.0%
Feb 18, 2025$2.37
est $2.19
+8.2%$1.75B
est $1.66B
+5.4%+5.8%
Oct 23, 2024$4.22
est $4.73
−10.8%$2.16B
est $2.24B
−3.7%−1.3%

“Move” is the close of the first session after the report compared with the close of the last session before it, so it reads the same whether the company reported before the open or after the close.

Watsco stock forecast and analyst price targets

Analysts’ average 12-month price target for Watsco is $379.20, +21.1% from the last close, from 8 firms rating the stock in the last 90 days.

$379.20consensus 12-month target, +21.1% from the last close
Low $330High $485
Buy2
Hold6
Sell0

Each firm’s latest rating in the last 90 days: 8 firms.

Latest analyst actions

DateFirmRatingTargetvs price
Sep 14William BlairHold, maintained——
Aug 20Morgan StanleyHold, reiterated$370+18.1%
Aug 20Morgan StanleyHold, maintained$370+18.1%
Aug 17StephensBuy, reiterated$485+54.8%
Aug 11William BlairHold, maintained——
−2.1%average 20-day move after past Neutral readings
−2.4%average move over the next 20 trading days in the last 5 years
±2.7%typical daily move, from the 14-day average range

Gekko doesn’t publish price predictions. These are analyst targets and historical base rates, which don’t guarantee future results.

Watsco seasonality: the next 20 trading days

Over the next 20 trading days from Sep 26, Watsco averaged −2.4% across the last 5 years, rising in 1 of them.

Next 20 trading days, by year

+6.1%2021−0.5%2022−2.4%2023−4.5%2024−9.0%2025

Average move and hit rate

WindowAverageYears higher
Next 5 trading days+1.7%3 of 5
Next 10 trading days+1.4%3 of 5
Next 15 trading days+0.6%2 of 5
Next 20 trading days−2.4%1 of 5
Next 30 trading days+1.4%4 of 5

For scale, WSO’s typical 20-trading-day move in either direction is about 5.7%.

Watsco market cap and key statistics

Watsco’s market cap is $12.90B, with a P/E ratio of 27.8 and revenue of $7.28B over the last twelve months.

Valuation

Market cap
$12.90B
P/E ratio
27.8
Forward P/E
21.3
EPS, TTM
$11.50
Gekko Fair Value
$293.03

Trading

Volume
521,426
Avg volume, 20 days
479,765
52-week high
$459.00
52-week low
$295.75
Shares outstanding
35.59M

Financials

Revenue, TTM
$7.28B
Profit margin
6.5%
Return on equity
16.7%
Quarterly earnings growth, YoY
−11.7%

Risk and income

Beta
1.04
Typical daily move
±2.7%
Typical 20-day move
±5.7%
Dividend yield
3.78%

Watsco peers

Watsco’s 6 largest industry peers by market value, with today’s move, GekkoIndex zone and gap to Gekko Fair Value.

StockTodayGekkoIndex zonevs Fair Value
MASMasco+0.5%Accumulation1.3% below
CSLCarlisle Companies+1.1%Accumulation14.9% below
SPXCSPX Technologies−0.9%Buying24.3% below
AOSA.O. Smith+0.4%Accumulation17.5% below
MHKMohawk Industries+0.9%Accumulation12.9% above
SSDSimpson Manufacturing−0.2%Accumulation3.7% above

A peer links to its own page where one exists.

In the Buying zone today

Reporting earnings this week

Popular on Gekko

Watsco stock FAQ

What is Watsco’s market cap?

Watsco’s market cap is $12.90B at the Sep 28, 2026 close of $313.22, with 35.59M shares outstanding. The shares trade on a P/E ratio of 27.8.

What is the Watsco stock forecast?

The consensus analyst 12-month price target for Watsco is $379.20, +21.1% from the last close. Of the 8 firms that rated the stock in the last 90 days, 2 rate it a buy, 6 a hold and 0 a sell. Gekko doesn’t publish price predictions of its own.

Is Watsco stock overvalued or undervalued?

On Gekko’s estimate Watsco is overvalued: the Sep 28, 2026 close of $313.22 is 6.9% above Gekko Fair Value of $293.03. Gekko Fair Value is recalculated every trading day, and a gap inside 5% either way counts as about fair value.

When does Watsco report earnings next?

Watsco is expected to report on Nov 4, 2026 (36 days away). Analysts expect earnings of $4.13 per share on revenue of $2.20B. Watsco beat the earnings estimate in 2 of its last 8 reports, moving 5.3% on average across the report.

What is Watsco’s 52-week high and low?

Watsco’s 52-week high is $459.00 and its 52-week low is $295.75; it closed at $313.22 on Sep 28, 2026, −20.5% over the past year. Over the last five years the shares peaked at $571.42 on Nov 25, 2024.

Is Watsco stock a buy right now?

Gekko describes the data; it does not make buy or sell recommendations. On the swing-trade checklist, 1 of the 5 items with data read as supportive (earnings risk), 1 as mixed (gekkoindex) and 3 as headwinds (trend, fair value and seasonality). The checklist is a description of current data, not a recommendation.

How this page works

During US trading hours the price at the top of the page is a delayed quote, refreshed every 15 minutes; everything else is rebuilt after each US market close. The GekkoIndex, Gekko Fair Value and the checklist are Gekko’s own, and the Gekko Brief is written by AI from this page’s data and checked against it before it is published. How Gekko’s data works →

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