Ventas (VTR) Stock Analysis & Forecast

Ventas, Inc. Finance sector. Market cap $42.15B.

$86.69−1.02 (−1.2%)

Close on Sep 18, 2026. Page updated Sep 19, 9:15 pm ET.

Gekko Brief

AI summary

Ventas closes at $86.69, down 1.2% on the day, sitting between its 50-day average of $92.44 and 200-day average of $85.58. The stock is down 5.6% over one month but up 6.2% over three months and 28.7% over the past year. The GekkoIndex reads 73.8, placing it in the Buying zone, up 10.6 over the last five readings. Gekko Fair Value stands at $124.93, putting the current price 30.6% below that level.

This week's activity centers on dividend coverage and institutional positioning. Ventas declared a quarterly dividend of $0.52 per share, payable 15 October to holders of record 30 September, with commentary noting a current payout ratio of 270.1% against an anticipated future ratio of 48.5%. Goldman Sachs maintained its Buy rating and raised its target price to $112. Several holders adjusted stakes, including Corient Private Wealth LP increasing its position by 114.8% to $15.13 million, Bank of America making a new $390.39 million investment for roughly 0.86% of the REIT, and Baird Financial Group raising its stake by 39.8% to 227,174 shares worth $20.2 million. Separately, Ventas announced Laurida Sayed as incoming Chief Accounting Officer effective around 5 October.

The next earnings date falls on 28 October, 38 days out, beyond a typical 20-trading-day hold. Analyst coverage from 15 firms shows 11 Buy and 4 Hold ratings, with a consensus target of $101.86, implying 17.5% upside from current levels. One billionaire holder is on record. Seasonality over the next 20 trading days has averaged -3.2% across five years, rising in 3 of those years, a pattern worth noting alongside the wide gap to Gekko Fair Value.

Written by AI and checked automatically against the figures on this page. Generated Sep 20, 2026 from the data above.

Price vs fair value

Close $86.69200-day averageGekko Fair Value $124.93

Key stats

Market cap
$42.15B
P/E ratio
162.4
Forward P/E
129.9
EPS, TTM
$0.54
Revenue, TTM
$6.42B
Profit margin
4.1%
Dividend yield
2.27%
Beta
0.72
Volume
12.68M avg 3.38M
1-year return
+28.7%
Typical daily move
±2%
Typical 20-day move
±5%
50-day average
$92.44
200-day average
$85.58
Next earnings
Oct 28
Shares outstanding
512.9M
52-week range
$66.54$101.60

Ventas swing-trade checklist

Ventas scores 3 supportive, 2 mixed and 0 headwinds across the 5 checklist items with data.

Six things swing traders check before a 20-day hold, read from the latest data.

3 supportive2 mixed0 headwinds

  • Trendmixed

    Averages disagree

    Close $86.69 sits between the 50-day ($92.44) and 200-day ($85.58) averages, or the averages disagree.

    See the chart
  • GekkoIndexsupportive

    73.8, Buying

    Reading 73.8 is in the Buying zone.

    See the GekkoIndex
  • Fair valuesupportive

    30.6% below

    Price is 30.6% below Gekko Fair Value (more than 5% below).

    See fair value
  • Smart moneyno data

    No data

    No insider, Congress or unusual options activity in the window.

    See smart money
  • Earnings risksupportive

    Reports in 38 days

    Next report Oct 28, 2026, 38 days away — outside a typical 20-trading-day hold.

    See earnings
  • Seasonalitymixed

    −3.2% on average

    From this point in the calendar, the next 20 trading days averaged −3.2% over 5 years, rising in 3 of them.

    See seasonality

A description of current data, not a recommendation. How this page works

Ventas stock chart and price history

Ventas closed at $86.69 on Sep 18, 2026, +28.7% over the past year, inside a 52-week range of $66.54 to $101.60.

Close50-day average200-day averageVolume

Use the left and right arrow keys to read daily values.

Performance Breakdown

1 month
−5.6%
3 months
+6.2%
6 months
+1.3%
1 year
+28.7%
The full VTR chart adds GekkoIndex, insider, options, Congress and hedge fund markers, plus TrendCandles™.Open VTR in Gekko

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About Ventas

Ventas owns and manages real estate tied to healthcare and housing needs for older adults across North America and the United Kingdom. Its portfolio spans roughly 1,450 properties, with the largest concentration in senior housing communities that offer residents supported living arrangements. Beyond housing, the company holds outpatient medical buildings, research facilities, and other healthcare-related properties, positioning it around the needs of an aging population.

The company relies on operational know-how, established industry relationships, and a data platform called Ventas OITM to guide its property management and growth decisions. Its holdings are grouped mainly into senior housing along with medical and research-oriented real estate, serving populations connected to healthcare delivery and aging-related services.

Ventas is headquartered in Chicago, Illinois, and traces its incorporation back to 1983 in Maryland. Its shares trade under the ticker VTR.

Sector
Finance
Website
ventasreit.com

Ventas GekkoIndex: the smart money zone

Ventas’s GekkoIndex — Gekko’s 0 to 100 smart money score — reads 73.8, in the Buying zone, up 10.6 points over five sessions.

010073.8Buying

Up 10.6 points over five sessions, from the Accumulation zone.

Reading for Sep 18, 2026

What followed past readings in each zone

ZoneReadings5 days10 days20 days50 days
Buying (current zone)15+1.5%+0.4%+4.7%+15.2%
Accumulation146+0.7%+1.8%+3.9%+8.6%
Neutral371+0.6%+1.2%+2.4%+6.4%
Distribution83+0.5%+1.3%+1.9%+4.2%
Selling0Not available

Average VTR share-price change over the trading days after each daily reading in its GekkoIndex history. Across every stock Gekko tracks, Buying readings averaged +3.2% over 20 days. Past behaviour doesn’t guarantee future results.

Buying zone: Smart money likely accumulating heavily. About the five zones →

See every daily GekkoIndex reading plotted over the VTR price, zone by zone.Track VTR in Gekko

Is Ventas stock overvalued? Gekko Fair Value

Ventas trades 30.6% below Gekko Fair Value of $124.93, so the shares are undervalued on Gekko’s estimate.

Gekko’s own estimate of what Ventas shares are worth, recalculated every trading day.

$124.93

Gekko Fair Value, Sep 19, 2026

30.6% Undervalued

How Gekko Fair Value works →

Gekko Fair Value on every chart, with the gap to price updating daily.Open VTR in Gekko

Ventas insider and Congress trading

No open-market insider purchases were filed for Ventas, and no Congress trades were disclosed, in the last 90 days.

Plus buybacks, unusual options and fund positions, each dated to when it became public.

Insider buying last 90 days

No open-market insider purchases were filed for VTR in the last 90 days.

From Form 4 filings, dated to when each was filed.

Every VTR insider filing, plotted on the chart in Gekko.Open VTR in Gekko

Congress trades last 90 days

No trades in VTR were disclosed by members of Congress in the last 90 days.

From congressional disclosures, which report amounts as ranges.

Congress disclosures for VTR, plotted on the chart in Gekko.Open VTR in Gekko

Buybacks

Ventas has been buying back its own shares.

Bought back, quarter ended Dec 31, 2022
$1.49M
As a share of market cap
0.00%

From company filings.

Hedge funds and billionaires quarter ended Jun 30

1of the funds Gekko tracks holds VTR.

0added0opened1trimmed0sold out
Which funds are on each side, name by name.Unlock in Gekko

Ventas earnings: next date and track record

Ventas reports on Oct 28, 2026 (38 days away), and beat the EPS estimate in 7 of its last 8 reports.

7 of 8reports beat the EPS estimate
±4.9%average move across the report
5 of 8reports followed by a gain

Share-price move across each report

−0.8%Oct ’24+9.0%Feb ’25−5.2%Apr ’25+0.5%Jul ’25+6.2%Oct ’25+6.2%Feb ’26+4.7%Apr ’26−6.3%Jul ’26

Last earnings call, Jul 29, 2026 AI summary

What they said
Ventas reported strong second-quarter 2026 results driven by senior housing (SHOP). Key highlights: total company same-property NOI grew 10% year-over-year, with U.S. SHOP delivering 18% NOI growth and 360 basis points of occupancy improvement. Second-quarter normalized FFO per share was $0.97, up 9% year-over-year. Management raised full-year normalized FFO guidance to $3.85–$3.90 per share (8–10% growth) and increased expected 2026 investment activity in senior housing to $4.5 billion (from $3 billion). Year-to-date investments exceed $3.4 billion with $1 billion+ under contract; over $8 billion invested since 2024, adding ~23,000 units. Balance sheet improved: net debt/EBITDA 4.7x (best in a decade). Operationally, SHOP momentum is driven by occupancy gains, pricing (RevPOR up ~5–6% in parts of the portfolio), and operating leverage producing strong flow-through. Management emphasized long-term demographic tailwinds, a focused SHOP-first capital allocation, disciplined dispositions (~$700M outside SHOP) and continued use of equity funding for acquisitions. Development activity is limited today due to rent and cost gaps; developers need materially higher trended rents to pencil. Other portfolios (OM&R, triple-net, research) produced modest NOI growth; research had some expected tenant move-outs.
Guidance
Raised normalized FFO guidance to $3.85–$3.90 per share for full-year 2026 (8–10% year-over-year growth). Increased expected 2026 investments focused on senior housing to $4.5 billion (from $3.0 billion). Dispositions and loan repayments guidance increased to ~$700 million (focused outside SHOP). Same-store SHOP NOI guide maintained ~16% for the year; occupancy growth guide raised to ~300 basis points year-over-year.
Risks flagged
Macro and capital-market headwinds: higher interest rates, stronger dollar and FX effects; development constraints from construction costs, labor shortages and higher cost of debt/equity; regulatory or rent restrictions in provinces (e.g., Quebec) that can limit RevPOR in Canada; operational execution risk to sustain occupancy and pricing improvements; competition for acquisitions and cap-rate compression; potential tenant non-renewals or lease vacancies (research portfolio move-outs); seasonality uncertainty during the key selling season; reliance on completing planned investments at attractive yields.
ReportedEPSSurpriseRevenueSurpriseMove
Jul 29, 2026$0.97
est $0.96
+1.0%$1.73B
est $1.68B
+2.9%−6.3%
Apr 27, 2026$0.10
est $0.10
0.0%$1.66B
est $1.59B
+4.5%+4.7%
Feb 5, 2026$0.13
est $0.09
+44.4%$1.57B
est $1.50B
+4.1%+6.2%
Oct 29, 2025$0.88
est $0.87
+1.1%$1.49B
est $1.53B
−2.8%+6.2%
Jul 30, 2025$0.87
est $0.85
+2.4%$1.42B
est $1.40B
+1.1%+0.5%
Apr 30, 2025$0.84
est $0.82
+2.4%$1.36B
est $1.32B
+3.2%−5.2%
Feb 12, 2025$0.13
est $0.05
+160.0%$1.29B
est $1.25B
+2.6%+9.0%
Oct 30, 2024$0.05
est −$0.02
+350.0%$1.24B
est $1.23B
+0.4%−0.8%

“Move” is the close of the first session after the report compared with the close of the last session before it, so it reads the same whether the company reported before the open or after the close.

Ventas stock forecast and analyst price targets

Analysts’ average 12-month price target for Ventas is $101.86, +17.5% from the last close, from 15 firms rating the stock in the last 90 days.

$101.86consensus 12-month target, +17.5% from the last close
Low $72High $113
Buy11
Hold4
Sell0

Each firm’s latest rating in the last 90 days: 15 firms.

Latest analyst actions

DateFirmRatingTargetvs price
Sep 16Goldman SachsBuy, maintained$112+29.2%
Sep 15JefferiesBuy, initiated$102+17.7%
Sep 3J.P. MorganBuy, maintained$104+20.0%
Sep 2ScotiabankHold, maintained$95+9.6%
Sep 1Wells FargoBuy, reiterated$104+20.0%
+4.7%average 20-day move after past Buying readings
−3.2%average move over the next 20 trading days in the last 5 years
±2%typical daily move, from the 14-day average range

Gekko doesn’t publish price predictions. These are analyst targets and historical base rates, which don’t guarantee future results.

Ventas seasonality: the next 20 trading days

Over the next 20 trading days from Sep 19, Ventas averaged −3.2% across the last 5 years, rising in 3 of them.

Next 20 trading days, by year

−1.4%2021−21.0%2022+0.4%2023+3.5%2024+5.2%2025

Average move and hit rate

WindowAverageYears higher
Next 5 trading days−2.9%2 of 5
Next 10 trading days−4.0%1 of 5
Next 15 trading days−6.2%1 of 5
Next 20 trading days−3.2%3 of 5
Next 30 trading days−1.8%2 of 5

For scale, VTR’s typical 20-trading-day move in either direction is about 5%.

Ventas market cap and key statistics

Ventas’s market cap is $42.15B, with a P/E ratio of 162.4 and revenue of $6.42B over the last twelve months.

Valuation

Market cap
$42.15B
P/E ratio
162.4
Forward P/E
129.9
EPS, TTM
$0.54
Gekko Fair Value
$124.93

Trading

Volume
12.68M
Avg volume, 20 days
3.38M
52-week high
$101.60
52-week low
$66.54
Shares outstanding
512.9M

Financials

Revenue, TTM
$6.42B
Profit margin
4.1%
Return on equity
2%
Quarterly earnings growth, YoY
−6.7%

Risk and income

Beta
0.72
Typical daily move
±2%
Typical 20-day move
±5%
Dividend yield
2.27%

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Ventas stock FAQ

What is Ventas’s market cap?

Ventas’s market cap is $42.15B at the Sep 18, 2026 close of $86.69, with 512.9M shares outstanding. The shares trade on a P/E ratio of 162.4.

What is the Ventas stock forecast?

The consensus analyst 12-month price target for Ventas is $101.86, +17.5% from the last close. Of the 15 firms that rated the stock in the last 90 days, 11 rate it a buy, 4 a hold and 0 a sell. Gekko doesn’t publish price predictions of its own.

Is Ventas stock overvalued or undervalued?

On Gekko’s estimate Ventas is undervalued: the Sep 18, 2026 close of $86.69 is 30.6% below Gekko Fair Value of $124.93. Gekko Fair Value is recalculated every trading day, and a gap inside 5% either way counts as about fair value.

When does Ventas report earnings next?

Ventas is expected to report on Oct 28, 2026 (38 days away). Analysts expect earnings of $0.16 per share on revenue of $1.77B. Ventas beat the earnings estimate in 7 of its last 8 reports, moving 4.9% on average across the report.

What is Ventas’s 52-week high and low?

Ventas’s 52-week high is $101.60 and its 52-week low is $66.54; it closed at $86.69 on Sep 18, 2026, +28.7% over the past year.

Is Ventas stock a buy right now?

Gekko describes the data; it does not make buy or sell recommendations. On the swing-trade checklist, 3 of the 5 items with data read as supportive (gekkoindex, fair value and earnings risk), 2 as mixed (trend and seasonality). The checklist is a description of current data, not a recommendation.

How this page works

Prices and signals update after every US market close; the GekkoIndex, Gekko Fair Value and the checklist are Gekko’s own, and the Gekko Brief is written by AI from this page’s data and checked against it before it is published. How Gekko’s data works →

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