NYSE: UNFI

United Natural Foods (UNFI) Stock Analysis & Forecast

Oct 12 close

$44.78+0.27 (+0.6%)

Gekko Brief

AI summaryOct 12 close

This week's commentary on United Natural Foods centers on the aftermath of its fiscal fourth-quarter report, with shares down 2.3% since that release even as results exceeded analyst estimates for both earnings and revenue on margin gains and cost savings. Separate coverage notes the company's Lean operating approach has now reached 44 distribution centers as it works to drive execution and productivity across its network. A Form 4 filing on 12 October and a routine tax-related share withholding for a retail executive round out the week's disclosures but add little beyond the operational narrative.

UNFI closed at $44.78, up 0.6%, sitting between its 50-day average of $45.98 and 200-day average of $44.74, a trend the data describes as mixed. The GekkoIndex reads 57.9, placing the stock in the Neutral zone. Price stands 11.7% above Gekko Fair Value of $40.08. Over the past three months shares have declined 9.6%, though the one-year return remains positive at 5.4%.

The next earnings date falls on 1 December, 49 days out and beyond a typical 20-trading-day holding window. No insider, Congress, or unusual options activity appears in the current windows, leaving smart-money signals quiet for now. Seasonality over the next 20 trading days has averaged a 7.2% gain across 5 years, rising in 4 of those instances. Analyst coverage shows 6 firms with 1 buy and 5 hold ratings, and a consensus target of 53, implying 18.4% upside from current levels.

Written by AI from the Oct 12, 2026 close and checked automatically against the figures on this page.

United Natural Foods price vs fair value

$44.78$40.08Oct ’25Apr ’26Oct ’26
Close $44.78200-day averageGekko Fair Value $40.08

United Natural Foods quick facts

Market cap
$2.71B
P/E ratio
32.9
Forward P/E
13.1
EPS, TTM
$1.34
Revenue, TTM
$31.15B
Profit margin
0.3%
Dividend yield
—
Beta
0.97
Volume
515,881 avg 620,463
1-year return
+5.4%
Typical daily move
±2.8%
Typical 20-day move
±9.4%
50-day average
$45.98
200-day average
$44.74
Next earnings
Dec 1 before open
Shares outstanding
60.32M
52-week range
$30.91$57.02

United Natural Foods swing-trade checklist

United Natural Foods scores 2 supportive, 2 mixed and 1 headwind across the 5 checklist items with data.

Six things swing traders check before a 20-day hold, read from the latest data.

2 supportive2 mixed1 headwind

  • Trendmixed

    Averages disagree

    Close $44.78 sits between the 50-day ($45.98) and 200-day ($44.74) averages, or the averages disagree.

    See the chart
  • GekkoIndexmixed

    57.9, Neutral

    Reading 57.9 is in the Neutral zone.

    See the GekkoIndex
  • Fair valueheadwind

    11.7% above

    Price is 11.7% above Gekko Fair Value (more than 5% above).

    See fair value
  • Smart moneyno data

    No data

    No insider, Congress or unusual options activity in the window.

    See smart money
  • Earnings risksupportive

    Reports in 50 days

    Next report Dec 1, 2026, 50 days away — outside a typical 20-trading-day hold.

    See earnings
  • Seasonalitysupportive

    +7.2% on average

    From this point in the calendar, the next 20 trading days averaged +7.2% over 5 years, rising in 4 of them.

    See seasonality

A description of current data, not a recommendation. How this page works

United Natural Foods stock chart and price history

United Natural Foods closed at $44.78 on Oct 12, 2026, +5.4% over the past year, inside a 52-week range of $30.91 to $57.02.

Close50-day average200-day averageVolume
United Natural Foods share price, past year, with 50-day and 200-day moving averages and volume$30$40$50NovDecJan 2026FebMarAprMayJunJulAugSepOct44.78

Use the left and right arrow keys to read daily values.

Performance Breakdown

1 month
+0.7%
3 months
−9.6%
6 months
−4.8%
1 year
+5.4%
The full UNFI chart adds GekkoIndex, insider, options, Congress and hedge fund markers, plus TrendCandles™.Open UNFI in Gekko

Follow United Natural Foods through every session

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About United Natural Foods

United Natural Foods distributes a broad range of grocery products across the United States and Canada, covering natural, organic and specialty goods as well as conventional staples, fresh produce and non-food items. The company is widely recognized for its distribution reach, supplying everything from nutritional supplements to personal care products, and it also imports, roasts and packages nuts, dried fruits, seeds and snack items, notably under its Woodstock label.

The company operates through two main segments, Wholesale and Retail. On the wholesale side it sells its own brands, including Blue Marble Brands and Field Day, the latter aimed at independent retailers, reaching customers through third-party distributors and direct retail sales. Its retail arm runs 74 stores, among them Cub Foods and Shoppers locations, offering general merchandise, health and beauty items, pharmacy services and private label products. United Natural Foods also provides retailers with support services such as marketing, e-commerce tools, store design, payment processing, IT hosting and back-office administration, and its customers range from large retail chains and independent grocers to foodservice operators, online sellers and military commissaries.

United Natural Foods was founded in 1976 and is headquartered in Providence, Rhode Island. Its shares are listed on the NYSE under the ticker UNFI.

Listed
NYSE
Sector
Distribution services
Industry
Food distributors
Website
unfi.com

United Natural Foods GekkoIndex: the smart money zone

United Natural Foods’s GekkoIndex — Gekko’s 0 to 100 smart money score — reads 57.9, in the Neutral zone, down 3.5 points over five sessions.

010057.9Neutral

Down 3.5 points over five sessions, from the Accumulation zone.

Reading for Oct 12, 2026

What followed past readings in each zone

ZoneReadings5 days10 days20 days50 days
Buying40−0.9%−0.4%+4.4%+20.1%
Accumulation156+1.2%+2.7%+5.3%+16.8%
Neutral (current zone)428+1.7%+2.7%+5.7%+12.1%
Distribution53−3.1%−1.6%−6.2%+1.8%
Selling5Too few readings yet

Average UNFI share-price change over the trading days after each daily reading in its GekkoIndex history. Across every stock Gekko tracks, Neutral readings averaged +1.1% over 20 days. Past behaviour doesn’t guarantee future results.

Neutral zone: No clear directional signal. About the five zones →

See every daily GekkoIndex reading plotted over the UNFI price, zone by zone.Track UNFI in Gekko

Is United Natural Foods stock overvalued? Gekko Fair Value

United Natural Foods trades 11.7% above Gekko Fair Value of $40.08, so the shares are overvalued on Gekko’s estimate.

Gekko’s own estimate of what United Natural Foods shares are worth, recalculated every trading day.

$40.08

Gekko Fair Value, Oct 10, 2026

11.7% Overvalued

At the end of Aug 2026 the price was 10.5% below the estimate.

Gekko Fair ValueShare price, month end
$40$45Aug 2026SepOct 2026

How Gekko Fair Value works →

Gekko Fair Value on every chart, with the gap to price updating daily.Open UNFI in Gekko

United Natural Foods insider and Congress trading

No open-market insider purchases were filed for United Natural Foods, and no Congress trades were disclosed, in the last 90 days.

Plus buybacks, unusual options and fund positions, each dated to when it became public.

Insider buying last 90 days

No open-market insider purchases were filed for UNFI in the last 90 days.

From Form 4 filings, dated to when each was filed.

Every UNFI insider filing, plotted on the chart in Gekko.Open UNFI in Gekko

Congress trades last 90 days

No trades in UNFI were disclosed by members of Congress in the last 90 days.

From congressional disclosures, which report amounts as ranges.

Congress disclosures for UNFI, plotted on the chart in Gekko.Open UNFI in Gekko

Buybacks

United Natural Foods has been buying back its own shares.

Latest authorization
$200.0M, Sep 8, 2026
Bought back, quarter ended Aug 1, 2026
$21.00M
As a share of market cap
0.77%

From company filings.

Hedge funds and billionaires quarter ended Jun 30

1of the funds Gekko tracks holds UNFI.

0added0opened1trimmed0sold out
Which funds are on each side, name by name.Unlock in Gekko

United Natural Foods earnings: next date and track record

United Natural Foods reports on Dec 1, 2026, before the open (50 days away), and beat the EPS estimate in 6 of its last 8 reports.

6 of 8reports beat the EPS estimate
±8.8%average move across the report
5 of 8reports followed by a gain

Share-price move across each report

+13.8%Dec ’24+6.2%Mar ’25−14.7%Jun ’25+24.5%Sep ’25−3.0%Dec ’25+4.9%Mar ’26−2.0%Jun ’26+1.5%Sep ’26

Last earnings call, Sep 8, 2026 AI summary

What they said
UNFI reported Q4 fiscal 2026 adjusted EBITDA of $172 million, contributing to full-year EBITDA growth of 27%. Free cash flow reached $323 million for the full year, with $80 million generated in Q4. Net leverage ratio improved to 2.2x, down more than one full turn year-over-year. The company reported low single-digit underlying sales growth aligned with its ~$90 billion target addressable market, excluding impacts from network optimization and cyber event cycling.
Guidance
Management expressed confidence entering fiscal 2027, citing momentum from two years of strategy execution. UNFI's target addressable market is expected to grow in the low single digits, with continued focus on effectiveness, efficiency, and value creation for customers and suppliers.
ReportedEPSSurpriseRevenueSurpriseMove
Sep 8, 2026−$0.11
est $0.62
−117.7%$7.64B
est $7.71B
−0.8%+1.5%
Jun 9, 2026$0.77
est $0.77
0.0%$7.72B
est $7.79B
−0.9%−2.0%
Mar 10, 2026$0.62
est $0.51
+21.6%$7.95B
est $8.11B
−2.0%+4.9%
Dec 2, 2025$0.56
est $0.40
+40.3%$7.84B
est $7.91B
−0.9%−3.0%
Sep 30, 2025−$0.11
est −$0.27
+59.3%$7.70B
est $7.93B
−3.0%+24.5%
Jun 10, 2025$0.44
est $0.22
+100.0%$8.06B
est $7.78B
+3.6%−14.7%
Mar 11, 2025$0.22
est $0.16
+37.5%$8.16B
est $7.96B
+2.4%+6.2%
Dec 10, 2024$0.16
est −$0.01
+1,195.9%——+13.8%

“Move” is the close of the first session after the report compared with the close of the last session before it, so it reads the same whether the company reported before the open or after the close.

United Natural Foods stock forecast and analyst price targets

Analysts’ average 12-month price target for United Natural Foods is $53.00, +18.4% from the last close, from 6 firms rating the stock in the last 90 days.

$53.00consensus 12-month target, +18.4% from the last close
Low $45High $61
Buy1
Hold5
Sell0

Each firm’s latest rating in the last 90 days: 6 firms.

Latest analyst actions

DateFirmRatingTargetvs price
Oct 7BMO CapitalBuy, reiterated$61+36.2%
Sep 15Goldman SachsHold, maintained$49+9.4%
Sep 11Deutsche Bank Hold, reiterated$53+18.4%
Sep 10Roth MKMHold, reiterated$45+0.5%
Sep 10Roth MKMHold, maintained$45+0.5%
+5.7%average 20-day move after past Neutral readings
+7.2%average move over the next 20 trading days in the last 5 years
±2.8%typical daily move, from the 14-day average range

Gekko doesn’t publish price predictions. These are analyst targets and historical base rates, which don’t guarantee future results.

United Natural Foods seasonality: the next 20 trading days

Over the next 20 trading days from Oct 10, United Natural Foods averaged +7.2% across the last 5 years, rising in 4 of them.

Next 20 trading days, by year

+5.0%2021+20.0%2022+5.9%2023+7.6%2024−6.7%2025

Average move and hit rate

WindowAverageYears higher
Next 5 trading days+3.6%4 of 5
Next 10 trading days+0.9%3 of 5
Next 15 trading days+1.3%2 of 5
Next 20 trading days+7.2%4 of 5
Next 30 trading days+8.3%4 of 5

For scale, UNFI’s typical 20-trading-day move in either direction is about 9.4%.

United Natural Foods market cap and key statistics

United Natural Foods’s market cap is $2.71B, with a P/E ratio of 32.9 and revenue of $31.15B over the last twelve months.

Valuation

Market cap
$2.71B
P/E ratio
32.9
Forward P/E
13.1
EPS, TTM
$1.34
Gekko Fair Value
$40.08

Trading

Volume
515,881
Avg volume, 20 days
620,463
52-week high
$57.02
52-week low
$30.91
Shares outstanding
60.32M

Financials

Revenue, TTM
$31.15B
Profit margin
0.3%
Return on equity
5.3%
Quarterly earnings growth, YoY
−89.3%

Risk and income

Beta
0.97
Typical daily move
±2.8%
Typical 20-day move
±9.4%

United Natural Foods stock news this week

Coverage of United Natural Foods this week reads neutral: 0 positive, 4 neutral and 1 negative headlines.

News sentiment neutral

United Natural Foods peers

United Natural Foods’s 6 largest industry peers by market value, with today’s move, GekkoIndex zone and gap to Gekko Fair Value.

StockTodayGekkoIndex zonevs Fair Value
SYYSysco+1.0%Accumulation11.6% below
USFDUS Foods+0.4%Neutral10.3% below
CHEFChefs' Warehouse−3.5%Accumulation13.4% above
DOLEDole+0.9%Neutral44.7% below
DNUTKrispy Kreme+3.1%Accumulation14.6% below
AGCCAgencia Comercial Spirits−1.3%Neutral3.5% above

A peer links to its own page where one exists.

In the Buying zone today

Reporting earnings this week

Popular on Gekko

United Natural Foods stock FAQ

What is United Natural Foods’s market cap?

United Natural Foods’s market cap is $2.71B at the Oct 12, 2026 close of $44.78, with 60.32M shares outstanding. The shares trade on a P/E ratio of 32.9.

What is the United Natural Foods stock forecast?

The consensus analyst 12-month price target for United Natural Foods is $53.00, +18.4% from the last close. Of the 6 firms that rated the stock in the last 90 days, 1 rate it a buy, 5 a hold and 0 a sell. Gekko doesn’t publish price predictions of its own.

Is United Natural Foods stock overvalued or undervalued?

On Gekko’s estimate United Natural Foods is overvalued: the Oct 12, 2026 close of $44.78 is 11.7% above Gekko Fair Value of $40.08. Gekko Fair Value is recalculated every trading day, and a gap inside 5% either way counts as about fair value.

When does United Natural Foods report earnings next?

United Natural Foods is expected to report on Dec 1, 2026, before the market opens (50 days away). Analysts expect earnings of $0.67 per share on revenue of $7.79B. United Natural Foods beat the earnings estimate in 6 of its last 8 reports, moving 8.8% on average across the report.

What is United Natural Foods’s 52-week high and low?

United Natural Foods’s 52-week high is $57.02 and its 52-week low is $30.91; it closed at $44.78 on Oct 12, 2026, +5.4% over the past year. Over the last five years the shares peaked at $57.89 on Dec 8, 2021.

Is United Natural Foods stock a buy right now?

Gekko describes the data; it does not make buy or sell recommendations. On the swing-trade checklist, 2 of the 5 items with data read as supportive (earnings risk and seasonality), 2 as mixed (trend and gekkoindex) and 1 as a headwind (fair value). The checklist is a description of current data, not a recommendation.

How this page works

During US trading hours the price at the top of the page is a delayed quote, refreshed every 15 minutes; everything else is rebuilt after each US market close. The GekkoIndex, Gekko Fair Value and the checklist are Gekko’s own, and the Gekko Brief is written by AI from this page’s data and checked against it before it is published. How Gekko’s data works →

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