NYSE: TREX

Trex (TREX) Stock Analysis & Forecast

Sep 28 close

$44.44−0.35 (−0.8%)

Gekko Brief

AI summary

Trex reported strong second quarter 2026 results, with net sales of $418 million, up 8% year-over-year, driven by broad-based growth across product lines, and the company raised its full-year guidance while announcing an additional $150 million in share repurchases. Separately, Trex and Do it Best Group announced a strategic relationship to strengthen the outdoor living category for independent retailers, giving Do it Best and True Value members access to Trex's products and rebate program.

Trex closed at $44.44, down 0.8%, sitting between its 50-day average of $45.43 and 200-day average of $41.92, with a one-month return of -3.5% and a six-month return of 25%. The GekkoIndex reads 57.5, placing the stock in the Neutral zone, down 7.4 over five days. Price sits 1.5% above Gekko Fair Value of $43.79.

The next earnings report is scheduled for 3 November 2026, after close, 35 days away and outside a typical 20-trading-day hold; the last report on 4 August 2026 produced a 10.6% reaction against an average absolute move of 8.2% across recent quarters. No insider, Congress or unusual options activity appears in the current windows. Seasonality is a noted headwind, with the next 20 trading days averaging -3.2% over five years, rising in 1 of them. Analyst coverage across 14 firms shows 6 buy, 6 hold and 2 sell ratings, with a consensus target of $54.67.

Written by AI and checked automatically against the figures on this page. Generated Sep 29, 2026 from the data above.

Trex price vs fair value

$44.44$43.79Sep ’25Mar ’26Sep ’26
Close $44.44200-day averageGekko Fair Value $43.79

Trex quick facts

Market cap
$4.62B
P/E ratio
25.6
Forward P/E
21
EPS, TTM
$1.69
Revenue, TTM
$1.21B
Profit margin
14.7%
Dividend yield
—
Beta
1.47
Volume
2.05M avg 1.57M
1-year return
−12.0%
Typical daily move
±3.2%
Typical 20-day move
±8.9%
50-day average
$45.43
200-day average
$41.92
Next earnings
Nov 3 after close
Shares outstanding
103.9M
52-week range
$29.77$54.30

Trex swing-trade checklist

Trex scores 1 supportive, 3 mixed and 1 headwind across the 5 checklist items with data.

Six things swing traders check before a 20-day hold, read from the latest data.

1 supportive3 mixed1 headwind

  • Trendmixed

    Averages disagree

    Close $44.44 sits between the 50-day ($45.43) and 200-day ($41.92) averages, or the averages disagree.

    See the chart
  • GekkoIndexmixed

    57.5, Neutral

    Reading 57.5 is in the Neutral zone.

    See the GekkoIndex
  • Fair valuemixed

    1.5% above

    Price is within 5% of Gekko Fair Value (1.5% above).

    See fair value
  • Smart moneyno data

    No data

    No insider, Congress or unusual options activity in the window.

    See smart money
  • Earnings risksupportive

    Reports in 35 days

    Next report Nov 3, 2026, 35 days away — outside a typical 20-trading-day hold.

    See earnings
  • Seasonalityheadwind

    −3.2% on average

    From this point in the calendar, the next 20 trading days averaged −3.2% over 5 years, rising in 1 of them.

    See seasonality

A description of current data, not a recommendation. How this page works

Trex stock chart and price history

Trex closed at $44.44 on Sep 28, 2026, −12.0% over the past year, inside a 52-week range of $29.77 to $54.30.

Close50-day average200-day averageVolume
Trex share price, past year, with 50-day and 200-day moving averages and volume$30$40$50$60NovDecJan 2026FebMarAprMayJunJulAugSep44.44

Use the left and right arrow keys to read daily values.

Performance Breakdown

1 month
−3.5%
3 months
−10.6%
6 months
+25.0%
1 year
−12.0%
The full TREX chart adds GekkoIndex, insider, options, Congress and hedge fund markers, plus TrendCandles™.Open TREX in Gekko

Follow Trex through every session

Put TREX on a Gekko watchlist and see its GekkoIndex, Gekko Fair Value and smart money signals update on the chart as they change.

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About Trex

Trex makes and sells outdoor living products for homes and businesses, covering composite decking, railing, fencing and lighting. It is best known for its composite decking lines, sold under several product names, along with a hidden fastener system and LED deck lighting. For commercial projects, Trex produces architectural and aluminum railing systems and staging equipment, used in settings ranging from general developments to stadiums and performing arts venues.

The company is organized into residential and commercial segments. Beyond manufacturing, Trex licenses its brand to other companies that make Trex-branded items such as outdoor furniture, pergolas, storage and drainage systems. It reaches customers through wholesale distributors, independent lumber retailers, large home improvement chains, a direct sales force, and independent sales representatives, and it also bids directly on projects.

Trex was established in 1996 and is headquartered in Winchester, Virginia. Its shares are listed on the NYSE under the ticker TREX.

Listed
NYSE
Sector
Non-energy minerals
Industry
Forest products
Website
trex.com

Trex GekkoIndex: the smart money zone

Trex’s GekkoIndex — Gekko’s 0 to 100 smart money score — reads 57.5, in the Neutral zone, down 7.4 points over five sessions.

010057.5Neutral

Down 7.4 points over five sessions, from the Accumulation zone.

Reading for Sep 28, 2026

What followed past readings in each zone

ZoneReadings5 days10 days20 days50 days
Buying60+0.9%+3.5%+4.2%+2.6%
Accumulation269−0.1%−0.3%+0.1%−3.4%
Neutral (current zone)326−0.6%−1.4%−3.3%−5.1%
Distribution16+0.2%−0.9%+2.6%−5.5%
Selling1Too few readings yet

Average TREX share-price change over the trading days after each daily reading in its GekkoIndex history. Across every stock Gekko tracks, Neutral readings averaged +1.1% over 20 days. Past behaviour doesn’t guarantee future results.

Neutral zone: No clear directional signal. About the five zones →

See every daily GekkoIndex reading plotted over the TREX price, zone by zone.Track TREX in Gekko

Is Trex stock overvalued? Gekko Fair Value

Trex trades 1.5% above Gekko Fair Value of $43.79, so the shares are about fair value on Gekko’s estimate.

Gekko’s own estimate of what Trex shares are worth, recalculated every trading day.

$43.79

Gekko Fair Value, Sep 26, 2026

1.5% above fair value · About fair value

How Gekko Fair Value works →

Gekko Fair Value on every chart, with the gap to price updating daily.Open TREX in Gekko

Trex insider and Congress trading

No open-market insider purchases were filed for Trex, and no Congress trades were disclosed, in the last 90 days.

Plus buybacks, unusual options and fund positions, each dated to when it became public.

Insider buying last 90 days

No open-market insider purchases were filed for TREX in the last 90 days.

From Form 4 filings, dated to when each was filed.

Every TREX insider filing, plotted on the chart in Gekko.Open TREX in Gekko

Congress trades last 90 days

No trades in TREX were disclosed by members of Congress in the last 90 days.

From congressional disclosures, which report amounts as ranges.

Congress disclosures for TREX, plotted on the chart in Gekko.Open TREX in Gekko

Buybacks

Trex has been buying back its own shares.

Bought back, quarter ended Jun 30, 2026
$50.73M
As a share of market cap
1.10%
Trailing four quarters
$204.0M

From company filings.

Hedge funds and billionaires quarter ended Dec 31

0of the funds Gekko tracks hold TREX.

0added0opened0trimmed1sold out
Which funds are on each side, name by name.Unlock in Gekko

Trex earnings: next date and track record

Trex reports on Nov 3, 2026, after the close (35 days away), and beat the EPS estimate in 6 of its last 8 reports.

6 of 8reports beat the EPS estimate
±8.2%average move across the report
7 of 8reports followed by a gain

Share-price move across each report

+9.8%Oct ’24+3.0%Feb ’25+2.1%May ’25+3.7%Aug ’25−32.4%Nov ’25+3.5%Feb ’26+0.7%May ’26+10.6%Aug ’26

Last earnings call, Aug 4, 2026 AI summary

What they said
Trex delivered a strong Q2 2026 with net sales well above expectations, driven by broad-based demand across products, channels, and price points. Demand accelerated through May and June with momentum continuing into Q3. Growth was particularly strong in railing and entry-level decking, though this mix moderated gross margins. The company generated strong free cash flow, reduced debt, and announced an additional $150 million in share repurchases. Management reiterated confidence in reaching $2 billion in annual sales by 2030.
Guidance
Management raised full year 2026 guidance following strong Q2 results and improving demand visibility. The company plans to spend approximately 18% of sales on SG&A for the year and targets $2 billion in annual revenue by 2030. Additional $150 million in share repurchases planned for the remainder of the year.
ReportedEPSSurpriseRevenueSurpriseMove
Aug 4, 2026$0.62
est $0.63
−2.1%$418.0M
est $415.7M
+0.6%+10.6%
May 7, 2026$0.59
est $0.51
+15.7%$343.4M
est $340.0M
+1.0%+0.7%
Feb 24, 2026$0.04
est −$0.01
+382.3%$161.1M
est $144.4M
+11.6%+3.5%
Nov 4, 2025$0.51
est $0.57
−10.1%$285.3M
est $301.5M
−5.4%−32.4%
Aug 4, 2025$0.74
est $0.72
+2.8%$387.8M
est $303.0M
+28.0%+3.7%
May 8, 2025$0.60
est $0.58
+3.4%$340.0M
est $328.9M
+3.4%+2.1%
Feb 24, 2025$0.09
est $0.04
+125.0%$167.6M
est $160.5M
+4.4%+3.0%
Oct 28, 2024$0.37
est $0.32
+15.6%$233.7M
est $159.3M
+46.7%+9.8%

“Move” is the close of the first session after the report compared with the close of the last session before it, so it reads the same whether the company reported before the open or after the close.

Trex stock forecast and analyst price targets

Analysts’ average 12-month price target for Trex is $54.67, +23.0% from the last close, from 14 firms rating the stock in the last 90 days.

$54.67consensus 12-month target, +23.0% from the last close
Low $42High $61
Buy6
Hold6
Sell2

Each firm’s latest rating in the last 90 days: 14 firms.

Latest analyst actions

DateFirmRatingTargetvs price
Sep 11Stifel NicolausHold, maintained$49+10.3%
Aug 31Truist FinancialBuy, maintained——
Aug 11Stifel NicolausHold, maintained$49+10.3%
Aug 5Truist FinancialBuy, maintained——
Aug 5Benchmark Co.Hold, maintained——
−3.3%average 20-day move after past Neutral readings
−3.2%average move over the next 20 trading days in the last 5 years
±3.2%typical daily move, from the 14-day average range

Gekko doesn’t publish price predictions. These are analyst targets and historical base rates, which don’t guarantee future results.

Trex seasonality: the next 20 trading days

Over the next 20 trading days from Sep 29, Trex averaged −3.2% across the last 5 years, rising in 1 of them.

Next 20 trading days, by year

−2.0%2021+6.6%2022−11.9%2023−0.1%2024−3.2%2025

Average move and hit rate

WindowAverageYears higher
Next 5 trading days+1.9%2 of 5
Next 10 trading days−3.0%1 of 5
Next 15 trading days−5.8%0 of 5
Next 20 trading days−3.2%1 of 5
Next 30 trading days−0.1%3 of 5

For scale, TREX’s typical 20-trading-day move in either direction is about 8.9%.

Trex market cap and key statistics

Trex’s market cap is $4.62B, with a P/E ratio of 25.6 and revenue of $1.21B over the last twelve months.

Valuation

Market cap
$4.62B
P/E ratio
25.6
Forward P/E
21
EPS, TTM
$1.69
Gekko Fair Value
$43.79

Trading

Volume
2.05M
Avg volume, 20 days
1.57M
52-week high
$54.30
52-week low
$29.77
Shares outstanding
103.9M

Financials

Revenue, TTM
$1.21B
Profit margin
14.7%
Return on equity
17.7%
Quarterly earnings growth, YoY
−15.2%

Risk and income

Beta
1.47
Typical daily move
±3.2%
Typical 20-day move
±8.9%

Trex stock news this week

2 headlines about Trex from the past week, newest first, each linking to the publisher.

Trex peers

Trex’s 4 largest industry peers by market value, with today’s move, GekkoIndex zone and gap to Gekko Fair Value.

StockTodayGekkoIndex zonevs Fair Value
WFGWest Fraser Timber+0.8%Neutral0.0% above
LPXLouisiana-Pacific+0.4%Accumulation2.6% above
UFPIUFP Industries+1.3%Accumulation8.2% below
JELDJELD-WEN−2.2%Accumulation5.9% below

A peer links to its own page where one exists.

In the Buying zone today

Reporting earnings this week

Popular on Gekko

Trex stock FAQ

What is Trex’s market cap?

Trex’s market cap is $4.62B at the Sep 28, 2026 close of $44.44, with 103.9M shares outstanding. The shares trade on a P/E ratio of 25.6.

What is the Trex stock forecast?

The consensus analyst 12-month price target for Trex is $54.67, +23.0% from the last close. Of the 14 firms that rated the stock in the last 90 days, 6 rate it a buy, 6 a hold and 2 a sell. Gekko doesn’t publish price predictions of its own.

Is Trex stock overvalued or undervalued?

On Gekko’s estimate Trex is about fair value: the Sep 28, 2026 close of $44.44 is 1.5% above Gekko Fair Value of $43.79. Gekko Fair Value is recalculated every trading day, and a gap inside 5% either way counts as about fair value.

When does Trex report earnings next?

Trex is expected to report on Nov 3, 2026, after the market closes (35 days away). Analysts expect earnings of $0.48 per share on revenue of $314.1M. Trex beat the earnings estimate in 6 of its last 8 reports, moving 8.2% on average across the report.

What is Trex’s 52-week high and low?

Trex’s 52-week high is $54.30 and its 52-week low is $29.77; it closed at $44.44 on Sep 28, 2026, −12.0% over the past year. Over the last five years the shares peaked at $140.98 on Dec 8, 2021.

Is Trex stock a buy right now?

Gekko describes the data; it does not make buy or sell recommendations. On the swing-trade checklist, 1 of the 5 items with data read as supportive (earnings risk), 3 as mixed (trend, gekkoindex and fair value) and 1 as a headwind (seasonality). The checklist is a description of current data, not a recommendation.

How this page works

During US trading hours the price at the top of the page is a delayed quote, refreshed every 15 minutes; everything else is rebuilt after each US market close. The GekkoIndex, Gekko Fair Value and the checklist are Gekko’s own, and the Gekko Brief is written by AI from this page’s data and checked against it before it is published. How Gekko’s data works →

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