Insider buying last 90 days
$109Kin 1 open-market purchase
| Filed | Insider | Type | Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 14 | Weill David director | Purchase | $109K |
From Form 4 filings, dated to when each was filed.
NASDAQ: TMDX
TransMedics (TMDX) Stock Analysis & Forecast
Oct 12 close
$78.17+0.30 (+0.4%)
Gekko Brief
AI summaryOct 12 closeThis week's attention on TransMedics centers on new analyst coverage: Barclays initiated the stock at Overweight with a $120.00 price target, implying meaningful upside from its October 7 price, and reiterated across several related notes. This follows the company's Q2 2026 report of revenue near $190 million, which beat estimates even as adjusted EPS came in below expectations. Broader brokerage consensus remains a "Hold" rating with an average price target cited around $121.00 to $121.10, reflecting a split view between the new bullish initiation and more cautious existing coverage.
TMDX closed at $78.17, up 0.4% on the day, but trends remain soft, with the stock down 4.9% over one month and down 30.8% over the past year. The price sits below both its 50-day ($85.77) and 200-day ($98.62) moving averages. The GekkoIndex reads 64.1, placing the stock in the Accumulation zone, while Gekko Fair Value stands at $91.37, putting the current price 14.4% below that mark.
Over the next 20 trading days, the key event is the earnings report scheduled for 4 November 2026, after the close, falling inside this window. The last report showed a 6.2% reaction with EPS of $0.44 against a $0.50 estimate. Smart money activity includes one open-market insider purchase valued at $109,058 over the last 90 days. Seasonality data shows a 10.9% average 20-day return across 5 years, rising in 4 of those years from this point in the calendar.
Written by AI from the Oct 12, 2026 close and checked automatically against the figures on this page.
TransMedics price vs fair value
Close $78.17200-day averageGekko Fair Value $91.37
TransMedics quick facts
- Market cap
- $2.70B
- P/E ratio
- 20.5
- Forward P/E
- 37.3
- EPS, TTM
- $3.86
- Revenue, TTM
- $668.5M
- Profit margin
- 22.7%
- Dividend yield
- —
- Beta
- 1.93
- Volume
- 491,711 avg 750,914
- 1-year return
- −30.8%
- Typical daily move
- ±5%
- Typical 20-day move
- ±11.9%
- 50-day average
- $85.77
- 200-day average
- $98.62
- Next earnings
- Nov 4 after close
- Shares outstanding
- 34.56M
TransMedics swing-trade checklist
TransMedics scores 4 supportive, 0 mixed and 2 headwinds across the 6 checklist items with data.
Six things swing traders check before a 20-day hold, read from the latest data.
4 supportive0 mixed2 headwinds
- Trendheadwind
Below 50 and 200-day
Close $78.17 is below the 50-day ($85.77) and 200-day ($98.62) averages, and the 50-day is below the 200-day.
See the chart - GekkoIndexsupportive
64.1, Accumulation
Reading 64.1 is in the Accumulation zone.
See the GekkoIndex - Fair valuesupportive
14.4% below
Price is 14.4% below Gekko Fair Value (more than 5% below).
See fair value - Smart moneysupportive
Leans bullish
Last 90 days: 1 open-market insider purchase.
See smart money - Earnings riskheadwind
Reports in 23 days
Reports on Nov 4, 2026, 23 days away — inside a typical 20-trading-day hold.
See earnings - Seasonalitysupportive
+10.9% on average
From this point in the calendar, the next 20 trading days averaged +10.9% over 5 years, rising in 4 of them.
See seasonality
A description of current data, not a recommendation. How this page works
TransMedics stock chart and price history
TransMedics closed at $78.17 on Oct 12, 2026, −30.8% over the past year, inside a 52-week range of $60.11 to $156.00.
Close50-day average200-day averageVolume
Use the left and right arrow keys to read daily values.
Performance Breakdown
- 1 month
- −4.9%
- 3 months
- +4.8%
- 6 months
- −31.0%
- 1 year
- −30.8%
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About TransMedics
TransMedics builds technology used in the transplantation of donor organs, with the aim of giving patients facing end-stage organ failure more options for treatment. Its central product, the Organ Care System, is a portable device that keeps donor organs functioning, nourished, and under observation after they leave the donor's body. The company has become identified with this method of sustaining organs through its own specialized technology, which works to mimic conditions similar to those inside a living body.
The Organ Care System is broken into modules built for different organs. OCS LUNG is used to keep standard criteria donor lungs viable for double-lung procedures, OCS Heart handles the circulation and upkeep of donor hearts outside the body, and OCS Liver is made for sustaining donor livers before transplant. Through this range of modules, TransMedics addresses several parts of the transplant process rather than concentrating on just one organ type.
The company traces back to 1998 and runs its operations from Andover, Massachusetts. Its stock trades on the NASDAQ under the ticker TMDX.
- Listed
- NASDAQ
- Sector
- Health technology
- Industry
- Medical specialties
- Website
- transmedics.com
TransMedics GekkoIndex: the smart money zone
TransMedics’s GekkoIndex — Gekko’s 0 to 100 smart money score — reads 64.1, in the Accumulation zone, up 3.5 points over five sessions.
64.1Accumulation
Up 3.5 points over five sessions.
Reading for Oct 12, 2026
What followed past readings in each zone
| Zone | Readings | 5 days | 20 days | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Buying | 40 | −0.8% | −0.2% | ||
| Accumulation (current zone) | 205 | +0.8% | −0.1% | ||
| Neutral | 386 | +0.3% | +1.7% | ||
| Distribution | 47 | +0.4% | +11.6% | ||
| Selling | 4 | Too few readings yet | |||
Average TMDX share-price change over the trading days after each daily reading in its GekkoIndex history. Across every stock Gekko tracks, Accumulation readings averaged +2.2% over 20 days. Past behaviour doesn’t guarantee future results.
Accumulation zone: Institutional interest building. About the five zones →
See every daily GekkoIndex reading plotted over the TMDX price, zone by zone.Track TMDX in Gekko
Is TransMedics stock overvalued? Gekko Fair Value
TransMedics trades 14.4% below Gekko Fair Value of $91.37, so the shares are undervalued on Gekko’s estimate.
Gekko’s own estimate of what TransMedics shares are worth, recalculated every trading day.
$91.37
Gekko Fair Value, Oct 10, 2026
14.4% Undervalued
At the end of Aug 2026 the price was 6.8% below the estimate.
Gekko Fair ValueShare price, month end
Gekko Fair Value on every chart, with the gap to price updating daily.Open TMDX in Gekko
TransMedics insider and Congress trading
Insiders filed 1 open-market purchase in TransMedics worth $109K, and no Congress trades were disclosed, in the last 90 days.
Plus buybacks, unusual options and fund positions, each dated to when it became public.
Congress trades last 90 days
No trades in TMDX were disclosed by members of Congress in the last 90 days.
From congressional disclosures, which report amounts as ranges.
Congress disclosures for TMDX, plotted on the chart in Gekko.Open TMDX in Gekko
Buybacks
TransMedics has been buying back its own shares.
- Bought back, year ended Dec 31, 2025
- $138K
- As a share of market cap
- 0.01%
From company filings.
Hedge funds and billionaires quarter ended Dec 31
0of the funds Gekko tracks hold TMDX.
0added0opened0trimmed1sold out
Which funds are on each side, name by name.Unlock in Gekko
TransMedics earnings: next date and track record
TransMedics reports on Nov 4, 2026, after the close (23 days away), and beat the EPS estimate in 4 of its last 8 reports.
Next earnings report
Nov 4, 2026
Expected after the close, 23 days away
- EPS estimate
- $0.30
- Revenue estimate
- $177.5M
4 of 8reports beat the EPS estimate
±12.6%average move across the report
4 of 8reports followed by a gain
Share-price move across each report
Last earnings call, Aug 4, 2026 AI summary
- What they said
- TransMedics reported a strong Q2 2026 with record quarterly revenue of about $190M (up 21% YoY, 9% sequentially) and an adjusted operating margin of 13.6%. U.S. transplant revenue was ~$184M led by liver (~$148M), heart (~$33M) and lung (~$2M). Product revenue (~$111M) and service revenue (~$79M) both grew, with service revenue outpacing product growth driven by logistics market-share gains, improved aviation efficiency (double-shifting), pricing adjustments and new centers. Management emphasized the company’s vertically integrated platform—OCS technology, National OCS Program (NOP), TransMedics Transplant Logistics Network, and NOP Connect digital ecosystem—as a durable moat. They launched donor and recipient clinical screening coordination services effective July 1 and made a strategic investment in PAD Aviation (Germany) to build European logistics capability (not yet operational due to reimbursement issues). Clinical programs (ENHANCE heart and DENOVO lung) have seen limited contribution in Q2; management expects ENHANCE Part A completion before year-end and timing for Part B and DENOVO to accelerate with IDE approvals (targeting activity into 2027). CHOPS 510(k) timing was framed as a H1 2027 horizon. Management signaled continued investment in R&D and infrastructure, prioritizing durable top-line growth, while accepting quarter-to-quarter operating margin variability as they scale toward a healthier operating profile.
- Guidance
- Management referenced an updated full-year outlook (no detailed numeric revenue guidance included in transcript). Notable forward-looking targets: company believes its platform can support ~30,000 transplants by 2032 driving >$2B in annual revenue; company is approaching an ~$800M annualized revenue run rate; Q2 adjusted operating margin was 13.6% and management/analyst discussion referenced a new guide midpoint for operating margin near ~13% for the year; CHOPS 510(k) targeted H1 2027; ENHANCE Part A expected to be completed before year-end; Part B (heart) and DENOVO (lung) enrollment/meaningful contribution expected to pick up in 2027 with IDE approvals and 12–18 month enrollment windows once initiated. Management will provide 2027 guidance in Q4 once visibility improves.
- Risks flagged
- Risks and challenges mentioned include: uncertainty and timing of FDA IDE approvals and 510(k) clearances (ENHANCE Part B, DENOVO lung, CHOPS), reimbursement variability and bureaucratic timelines in Europe (Italy budget disbursement, Germany reimbursement unresolved), CMS OPO recertification/Modernization Act uncertainty and potential delays or exclusion of outside entities, quarter-to-quarter seasonality (e.g., August slowdown) and volume variability impacting service gross margins, operational execution risk tied to aviation/logistics investments (PAD Aviation), dependence on adoption rates and trial enrollment for clinical catalysts, and potential variability in service margins tied to volumes/dry runs.
| Reported | EPS | Revenue | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 4, 2026 | $0.44 est $0.50 | $189.9M est $184.0M | −6.2% |
| May 5, 2026 | $0.30 est $0.70 | $173.9M est $174.4M | −24.9% |
| Feb 24, 2026 | $0.57 est $0.41 | $160.8M est $155.4M | −2.1% |
| Oct 29, 2025 | $0.66 est $0.37 | $143.8M est $155.4M | +4.7% |
| Jul 30, 2025 | $0.92 est $0.43 | $157.4M est $141.6M | +13.5% |
| May 8, 2025 | $0.70 est $0.24 | $143.5M est $123.4M | +16.4% |
| Feb 27, 2025 | $0.19 est $0.22 | $121.6M est $109.5M | +3.5% |
| Oct 28, 2024 | $0.12 est $0.29 | $108.8M est $112.2M | −29.3% |
“Move” is the close of the first session after the report compared with the close of the last session before it, so it reads the same whether the company reported before the open or after the close.
TransMedics stock forecast and analyst price targets
Analysts’ average 12-month price target for TransMedics is $99.82, +27.7% from the last close, from 11 firms rating the stock in the last 90 days.
$99.82consensus 12-month target, +27.7% from the last close
Now $78.17Avg $99.82
Low $65High $122
Each firm’s latest rating in the last 90 days: 11 firms.
Latest analyst actions
| Date | Firm | Target | vs price |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 6 | Barclays | $120 | +53.5% |
| Oct 5 | Piper Sandler | $100 | +27.9% |
| Oct 2 | William Blair | — | — |
| Oct 2 | TD Cowen | $120 | +53.5% |
| Sep 22 | Needham | $106 | +35.6% |
−0.1%average 20-day move after past Accumulation readings
+10.9%average move over the next 20 trading days in the last 5 years
±5%typical daily move, from the 14-day average range
Gekko doesn’t publish price predictions. These are analyst targets and historical base rates, which don’t guarantee future results.
TransMedics seasonality: the next 20 trading days
Over the next 20 trading days from Oct 10, TransMedics averaged +10.9% across the last 5 years, rising in 4 of them.
Next 20 trading days, by year
Average move and hit rate
| Window | Average | Years higher |
|---|---|---|
| Next 5 trading days | −2.6% | 2 of 5 |
| Next 10 trading days | +0.6% | 3 of 5 |
| Next 15 trading days | −4.0% | 3 of 5 |
| Next 20 trading days | +10.9% | 4 of 5 |
| Next 30 trading days | +6.8% | 3 of 5 |
For scale, TMDX’s typical 20-trading-day move in either direction is about 11.9%.
TransMedics market cap and key statistics
TransMedics’s market cap is $2.70B, with a P/E ratio of 20.5 and revenue of $668.5M over the last twelve months.
Valuation
- Market cap
- $2.70B
- P/E ratio
- 20.5
- Forward P/E
- 37.3
- EPS, TTM
- $3.86
- Gekko Fair Value
- $91.37
Trading
- Volume
- 491,711
- Avg volume, 20 days
- 750,914
- 52-week high
- $156.00
- 52-week low
- $60.11
- Shares outstanding
- 34.56M
Financials
- Revenue, TTM
- $668.5M
- Profit margin
- 22.7%
- Return on equity
- 36.3%
- Quarterly earnings growth, YoY
- −55.8%
Risk and income
- Beta
- 1.93
- Typical daily move
- ±5%
- Typical 20-day move
- ±11.9%
TransMedics stock news this week
Coverage of TransMedics this week reads positive: 3 positive, 2 neutral and 1 negative headlines.
- TransMedics Group Initiated at Overweight by BarclaysMoomoo, Oct 9
- 41,109 TransMedics Group, Inc. $TMDX Shares Sold by Zevenbergen Capital Investments LLCMarketBeat, Oct 9
- TransMedics Group stock gets USD 120.00 target from BarclaysAD HOC NEWS, Oct 8
- TransMedics Group (NASDAQ:TMDX) Shares Climb 4.2% - Time to Buy?MarketBeat, Oct 7
- TransMedics Group (NASDAQ:TMDX) Now Covered by Analysts at BarclaysMarketBeat, Oct 7
- TransMedics Group, Inc. (NASDAQ:TMDX) Stock Has Average Price Target of $121.10 According to BrokeragesMarketBeat, Oct 5
TransMedics peers
TransMedics’s 6 largest industry peers by market value, with today’s move, GekkoIndex zone and gap to Gekko Fair Value.
| Stock | GekkoIndex zone | vs Fair Value |
|---|---|---|
| TMOThermo Fisher Scientific | Neutral | 18.2% above |
| ABTAbbott Laboratories | Neutral | 14.7% below |
| DHRDanaher | Neutral | 4.5% above |
| ISRGIntuitive Surgical | Neutral | 18.8% above |
| MDTMedtronic | Neutral | 22.9% below |
| SYKStryker | Accumulation | 12.6% below |
A peer links to its own page where one exists.
TransMedics stock FAQ
What is TransMedics’s market cap?
TransMedics’s market cap is $2.70B at the Oct 12, 2026 close of $78.17, with 34.56M shares outstanding. The shares trade on a P/E ratio of 20.5.
What is the TransMedics stock forecast?
The consensus analyst 12-month price target for TransMedics is $99.82, +27.7% from the last close. Of the 11 firms that rated the stock in the last 90 days, 7 rate it a buy, 4 a hold and 0 a sell. Gekko doesn’t publish price predictions of its own.
Is TransMedics stock overvalued or undervalued?
On Gekko’s estimate TransMedics is undervalued: the Oct 12, 2026 close of $78.17 is 14.4% below Gekko Fair Value of $91.37. Gekko Fair Value is recalculated every trading day, and a gap inside 5% either way counts as about fair value.
When does TransMedics report earnings next?
TransMedics is expected to report on Nov 4, 2026, after the market closes (23 days away). Analysts expect earnings of $0.30 per share on revenue of $177.5M. TransMedics beat the earnings estimate in 4 of its last 8 reports, moving 12.6% on average across the report.
What is TransMedics’s 52-week high and low?
TransMedics’s 52-week high is $156.00 and its 52-week low is $60.11; it closed at $78.17 on Oct 12, 2026, −30.8% over the past year. Over the last five years the shares peaked at $177.37 on Aug 23, 2024.
Is TransMedics stock a buy right now?
Gekko describes the data; it does not make buy or sell recommendations. On the swing-trade checklist, 4 of the 6 items with data read as supportive (gekkoindex, fair value, smart money and seasonality) and 2 as headwinds (trend and earnings risk). The checklist is a description of current data, not a recommendation.
How this page works
During US trading hours the price at the top of the page is a delayed quote, refreshed every 15 minutes; everything else is rebuilt after each US market close. The GekkoIndex, Gekko Fair Value and the checklist are Gekko’s own, and the Gekko Brief is written by AI from this page’s data and checked against it before it is published. How Gekko’s data works →
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